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Cringely's 2006 Results, 2007 Predictions

Posted by Zonk on from the seer-of-seers-prognosticator-of-prognosticators dept.

Underpants writes "Bob Cringely posts the results of his 2006 predictions (only 69% successful, so Bob is sad). He also lists his calls for 2007; none are particularly shocking, but some are at least interesting. 2007 predictions from the article: '4) No one DRM technology emerges as the winner and the RIAA begins to back off as it loses a few legal cases. Still, no Internet-only song wins a Grammy or is even recognized as existing. 9) Zune 2.0 appears, isn't brown, but still nobody buys it. 10) The year the net crashed (in the USA). Video overwhelms the net and we all learn that the broadband ISPs have been selling us something they can't really deliver.'"

16 of 148 comments (clear)

  1. I like number 10 by Jack+Malmostoso · · Score: 5, Informative

    In Italy this is already happening, with the main ISP (Telecom Italia) faking DNS problems to cover up the fact that they just can't deliver all the ADSL they sold. Despite the fact that they shape Bittorrent (and other P2P) traffic...

  2. A bit wrong... by Karganeth · · Score: 5, Informative

    2007 prediction - "Still, no Internet-only song wins a Grammy or is even recognized as existing."

    This already happened in the UK in 2006. Crazy by Gnarls Barkely went to number 1 on the charts without having a single physical copy on sale. It is one of the best songs of 2006. It stayed at nubmer one for nine weeks.

    1. Re:A bit wrong... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Informative

      Gnarls Barkley - Crazy won a shitload of awards and was the best selling song of last year. BREAKING NEWS: You live under a rock.

    2. Re:A bit wrong... by cofaboy · · Score: 3, Informative

      Yes, that would be that poxy crazy frog ditty. Yes that was the UK

      /me hangs head in shame at poor taste of young Brits

      --
      In the end, It's all bovine dung you know
    3. Re:A bit wrong... by Andy_R · · Score: 2, Informative

      Good old America, the only place that can call something a world series without noticing they haven't invited any other countries... but back on topic, the chart rules when Gnarls Barkley hit number 1 excluded songs that were truly internet only, you had to have a physical CD or vinyl release. You were allowed to issue the download up to a week before the physical release hit the shops, and it was this rule that allowed them to number 1 before the physical release hit the shops. Recently the rules have been changed and a true internet only release now is allowed in the British charts.

      --
      A pizza of radius z and thickness a has a volume of pi z z a
  3. Re:11. Intel rebrands self and no one notices by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 4, Informative

    They did rebrand.

    Old Logo and now ... New Logo.

    Did someone actually care? nope.

  4. Re:Question for 2007: by gkhan1 · · Score: 3, Informative

    Seeing as it's gonna come preinstalled on pretty much every new computer sold in the next year, I doubt it. There's gonna be dozens (if not hundreds) of millions of Vista users by the end of the year. Believe it

  5. IBM's Customers will Revolt by Mr+Pippin · · Score: 3, Informative

    Just read here:

    http://www.pbs.org/cringely/predictions/bob/2006/p rediction_bob_20060104_000992.html

    However, Cringley goes into more overall depth in a previous article.

    http://www.pbs.org/cringely/pulpit/2006/pulpit_200 60518_000897.html

    MANY IBM employees DO feel this way, btw. IBM appears to be spending little in the way of future product development (including feature enhancements to current products), other than just outright buying companies and incorporating their products. Stock performance has been mediocre for years.

    Sooner or later, that kind of internal attitude starts showing up to your customers.

  6. Under the rock by Rumagent · · Score: 2, Informative

    I sure do... I found it on youtube and it is quite good.

  7. Re:Oops, my bad. Not Zonk...for once. by Vellmont · · Score: 3, Informative


    I'm the submitter, and that figure was my typo

    And it's the editors job to find and correct obvious mistakes. Hence the "edit" of editor.

    --
    AccountKiller
  8. Re:Question for 2007: by vtcodger · · Score: 2, Informative
    Typically when a company buys a new PC, they get to specify the OS from short list -- XP home, XP Professional, and apparently more varieties of Vista than anyone is likely to be able to keep straight. Until relatively recently W2K, W2K professional, and Windows 98 would have been on the list as well.. (Yes the pricing for each and every one will be different). It's only home users that buy a box off the shelf who get the one-size-fits-all OEM OS with no idea of its cost and no real choice.

    Even a home user can buy a custom specified PC over the internet with their choice of OS, and, I think -- although I haven't tried it -- from some vendors without an OS if they really want it that way.

    What the original poster seems to be saying is that most companies will buy their boxes with Windows XP professional for quite a while. Could well be.

    --
    You can't see ANYTHING from a car, You've got to get out of the goddamned contraption and walk...Edward Abbey
  9. Re:Tecos and cablecos raped our asses for decades by Christianfreak · · Score: 4, Informative

    I have FTTH from Verizon. I live in a suburb of Dallas. 15mB down 2mB up, 300+ TV channels (all digital) and phone service. Its all about $120. I'm very happy with the service.

    --
    The Anti-Blog
  10. Re:Tecos and cablecos raped our asses for decades by trifster · · Score: 2, Informative

    This is a freaking troll post. there is finally tons of fibre being laid. verizon is laying fibre faster than a vegas prostitute and the cablecos are running fiber basically infront of every home. cringleys "not enough bandwidth" prediction is as good as SEN Stevens "fat pipes" comments. stupid old people.

  11. Intel DID rebrand by aztektum · · Score: 3, Informative

    The fact that there are quite a few posts saying Cringely got that one wrong makes it look like he was in fact right. They dropped the Pentium brand name as their primary line, a name that they had been using for ~13 years. How many times have you looked at a software box and seen "Pentium Required/Recommended" over those last 13 years? The reason no one noticed is because it isn't as big a deal. Yes the Core 1/2 chips offer better power, performance and aren't as hot, but the average computer buyer doesn't look at hardware like that. They look at what software will work on it, Windows? Check. Office? Check. An Intel or AMD sticker only matters to zealots anymore.

    --
    :: aztek ::
    No sig for you!!
  12. Re:11. Intel rebrands self and no one notices by agallagh42 · · Score: 2, Informative

    You just proved his point about no one noticing. They don't use the "Pentium" brand anymore. The latest generation desktop processors are referred to as "The Intel® Core(TM) processor family".

    See?

    --
    Carpe Cerevisi - Seize the Beer
  13. Re:Tecos and cablecos raped our asses for decades by jZnat · · Score: 2, Informative

    I'd hardly consider FIOS to be FTTP; Japan is getting about 30M/30M up/down, and Tokyo is getting around 50M/50M up/down (realistic numbers, not advertised ones). In fact, they've had reasonable FTTP services for a few years now, yet we can't even give people realistic amounts of bandwidth.

    --
    'Yes, firefox is indeed greater than women. Can women block pops up for you? No. Can Firefox show you naked women? Yes.'