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Cringely's 2006 Results, 2007 Predictions
Underpants writes "Bob Cringely posts the results of his 2006 predictions (only 69% successful, so Bob is sad). He also lists his calls for 2007; none are particularly shocking, but some are at least interesting. 2007 predictions from the article: '4) No one DRM technology emerges as the winner and the RIAA begins to back off as it loses a few legal cases. Still, no Internet-only song wins a Grammy or is even recognized as existing. 9) Zune 2.0 appears, isn't brown, but still nobody buys it. 10) The year the net crashed (in the USA). Video overwhelms the net and we all learn that the broadband ISPs have been selling us something they can't really deliver.'"
No DRM emerges as a winner? of course not, nobody wins with DRM, not even the record companies or the artists, as consumers hate it and it drives sales away...
"A door is what a dog is perpetually on the wrong side of" - Ogden Nash
Did this happen? Intel changes their campaign up every year,
and they now use "Leap Ahead"...but there's been no
real rebranding as far as i can tell.
I predict Cringley is going to get even more annoying and
no one will even notice.
------ The best brain training is now totally free : )
He gains some kudos for admitting he was wrong about OSX running on generic hardware. Other pundits would have insisted they were right.
From the article:
That is my worst performance EVER. I got nine of 15 predictions correct for a 60 percent average. In my defense I'll point out that just because I am wrong now doesn't mean I'll still be wrong in another week. Three years ago I predicted Intel would support AMD's 64-bit instruction extensions, but they took 53 weeks to do so, making me off by seven days. I think that by the end of February, 2-3 of these predictions could still swing the other direction.
Editors: Please RTFA? Thanks.
"Microsoft is discussing internally how to help Sony from going under, since that would create a raft of antitrust problems for Redmond. I am not making this up."
Microsoft supporting another company (Apple)? What an unexpected event.
Really, if this is a prediction, fire Nostradomus.
It's an idiotic comparison. ME was an in-between, a sideshow to keep the customers happy (and look how well that went) while the real OS was being developed. Vista is one of the largest investments microsoft has ever made. They're gonna push it hard. And virtually everyone who buys it (certainly corporations) won't care one iota about all the DRM stuff. "Look at all that pretty glass!" is going to be way, way more important.
Because recompressed files are perfectly acceptable to most people, who wouldn't even notice the difference. Only a miniscule number of people would find it "unacceptable." And most of them probably couldn't hear the difference anyway - it's all ego like those "Monster Cables" and other shit that appeals to "audiophiles."
... and then they built the supercollider.
I don't think anyone is going to "buy" Vista. At least, not in a fundamental sense. Certainly, corporations won't... most large companies are just moving from 2000 to XP, and that's only because Microsoft has pulled the support rug from under them. For the average company there is not one compelling reason to move forward quickly.
It's not like this is rocket science. Large companies were still running Windows 3.1 until 1997, and then moved to Windows NT 4. The move from that to 2000 was about five years ago. The move from Windows 3.1 to NT was obviously needed due to sheer obsolescence; the move from NT to 2000 was the same, albeit to a smaller degree (USB support, AD support).
Vista is really an OS for consumers and to ensure Microsoft has a new product as promised. I see nothing good coming from Vista in the end. In many ways, it is the new ME: a stop-gap OS...
I don't think anyone is going to "buy" Vista. At least, not in a fundamental sense.
When a company or consumer buys a new PC with Vista preinstalled, part of the purchase price is for the OS. Just because they're not buying a boxed upgrade version doesn't mean they're not buying Vista. This is how Microsoft sold the vast majority of XP, so there's not much of a change here.
ich muß mehr Kuhglocke haben
We were supposed to have FTTH (fiber to the home) 20 years ago.
We've been paying surcharges to get FTTH for 20 years.
To date the Telcos and cablecos have delivered 0 inches of FTTH. Not an inch of fiber has been laid.
And now America is quantitatively and qualitatively behind, in an area where we were the leaders, only to get surpassed by anybody who's actually laid in some FTTH.
The difference of having bandwidth as opposed to starving for it is, well just imagine yourself back before the internet. Imagine yourself having to use carbon paper. Life was a lot slower then.
Now with uTube and MoviesOnDemand, VideosOnDemand and the thirst for all kinds of streaming media, the demand for band is going to collapse the copper infrastructure. It wont melt the wire down as much as it will vaporize it in a coronal flare.
If you work in management for a telco or a cableco, look for Federal indictments to come to your office before the decade is out.
MSBPodcast.com The opinions expressed here are my own. If you don't like 'em... Think up your own stuff.
Nothing about known fraus Cringley would ever be refreshing exccept for him
r e/2100-1010_3-6108453.htmlm &q=l&c=&c=%5EIXIC
to admit to his lies, quit punditry, and bugger off out of the public eye
for ever.
7/15 tops.
4) More bad news for Sun. That's true.
http://news.com.com/Sun+recoups+server+market+sha
looks like sun's best server market share improvement in about 5 years.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=1y&s=SUNW&l=on&z=
looks like sun shareholders are happy about what's happening too.
So how can Cringley call that one true?
11) Intel will rebrand itself and nobody will notice. Intel did, we didn't -- true.
What rebranding? If they mean "they have new logos for, and new keywords to describe, new products", that's not rebranding. That's just bringing out new products, and making them distinguishablefrom their previous products. Such a 'rebranding' would be true for any company that brings out more than one product a year. If this is counted as true, it's utterly valueless.
But heck, it's Cringley.
Phil
Also FatPhil on SoylentNews, id 863