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One In Five Windows Installs Is Non-Genuine
snib writes "Microsoft disclosed Monday that, according to reports collected by the notorious Windows Genuine Advantage tool on millions of users' PCs, 22% of all Windows installs do not pass its validation tests and have therefore been deemed non-genuine. Quoting: 'Since WGA launched in July 2005, over 512 million users have attempted to validate their copy of Windows, Microsoft said. Of those, the non-genuine rate was 22.3 percent... [T]he Business Software Alliance... reports that 35 percent of the world's software is pirated (22 percent in North America)...'"
from SCO.
What's the false positive rate?
Pff, that's obviously because geeks/pirates have so many more installations than the average person.
I'd probably count for four, but if it counts as a new installation each time you format, than more than double that. (No more now though, I've got a Mac. 3) I'd assume it's the same for many users here.
Or does WGA fail 22% of the time? Hmmm?
I can count 5 that fail it's validation and every one of them is a legal copy on a legal system.
I would look at there program first, then accuse everyone of steeling second.
It really does not surprise me that there are a lot of pirated copies out there.
or false negative rate?
Is it true that more people vote for the winner of American Idol, than vote for the president? -Ali G.
There's no way it's that low
One in five... of people who actually attempted to run the WGA. I'd imagine there's a sizable group of people who already know they won't pass it, so they never even try.
I anticipate that some folks will say 'lolz if WGA doesn't false positive!!11!!eleventy!' (translated: Assuming that WGA doesn't falsely label a machine as pirated). The number of these seems to be reeeeeally low, I'm guessing it's not a big part of the final numbers.
I know for a fact that my install is 100% genuine...Although WGA has flagged it as non-genuine.
I obtained my copy of XP from a university site license that was given to all the students at the university of Pittsburgh. They just recently invalidated that site license...so you are looking at tens of thousands (if not a couple hundred thousand) students, faculty and staff that were all using that key that is now non-genuine.
Actual piracy numbers are likely to be even larger.
Why? Two main reasons.
One: Pirates are probably far less likely to attempt to run a WGA certification compared to a legitimate licence holder. For obvious reasons.
Two: "Borrowed" corporate editions, etc. will validate despite being, well, "borrowed".
Microsoft disclosed Monday that, according to reports collected by the notorious Windows Genuine Advantage tool on millions of users' PCs, 22% of all Windows installs do not pass its validation tests and have therefore been deemed non-genuine.
/dnyun/ -adjective
genuine
1. possessing the claimed or attributed character 2. descended from the original stock; pure in breed:
Even pirated software is genuine.
The theory of relativity doesn't work right in Arkansas.
My free copy of WindowsXP that I've installed on my Mac Mini is valid (msdn academic alliance), but I've intentionally avoided installing anything with WGA because I have problems with that kind of tactic.
.msi packages.
I managed to find a crack so I could download IE7 without WGA (I never use IE, I use Mozilla products, but it's the kind of thing you install just because you figure something Microsoft is probably going to require it sooner or later). And some other WGA-only updates are available in places as WGA-less downloads. You can also use Microsoft's Orca to disable the WGA check in some
Maybe someone will reply and complain about how I'm not using an official super-approved install of IE7, but WGA was created to stop people from illegally using stolen software (the stuff they charge actual money for, and you didn't pay for), and IE7 is a free download. I just preferred to get around their #$*!@% WGA stuff.
I bet that 22% is probably very wrong.
They say that that's 22% of those who attempted to be authenticated- anyone who knows they are using a pirated copy sure as hell isn't going to try to authenticate it. Those who failed either didn't know they had a pirated copy (installed by teenage son or shady computer store) or are really dumb pirates.
Or the third option, that WGA fails a fifth of the time. I can think of at least one instance where I have tried to authenticate a legitamite copy (which I had just unpacked from HP, and was doing updates on) and WGA said it didn't pass.
My experience in reinstalling several completely fried windows boxes (virus or trojans) is that the biggest issue is that the OEM CD has been lost and then the key that they have, for a perfectly valid version of Windows, doesn't work for the "full" Windows CD that I (legally) have. So what is the solution? Phone MS Support? Hell they say its an OEM problem. Phone the OEM and they want to charge to ship a new replacement CD, or just don't care.
So I'd say that a decent proportion of those "invalid" windows installs are actually perfectly valid but just suffering because a reinstall had to be done due to the MS security issues and couldn't be done from a CD that matched the key. You can actually get MS support (nice high cost phone number) to sort this out but it really isn't worth the pain, no doubt these days they'll be pushing a "Vista upgrade" as the solution.
So WGA failure doesn't mean it isn't legal, just that the key you have doesn't match the CD that had to do the re-install.
An Eye for an Eye will make the whole world blind - Gandhi
Oh, I think that's a little excessive. Confiscation of your computer and a public whipping would satisfy me.
I've fallen off your lawn, and I can't get up.
Those who insist on using proprietary operating systems get to pay for them. Yes, even when that means they pay with their time.
If your copy of Windows won't validate, that's between you and Microsoft, my friend:
Oh, and there's a Linux installfest this Thursday. If things between you and Bill don't work out, why don't you stop by and install a real 64 bit OS on your machine?
But I do hate it for the gamers, man. What are they going to do?
The society for a thought-free internet welcomes you.
I kid. Really, I kid.
${YEAR+1} is going to be the year of Linux on the desktop!
But virus-infected software is not. Maybe that's what this number is referring to.
http://outcampaign.org/
I know I tried to validate my VALID windows copy five times and failed each time. So I guess I'm one of the one-in-five. One valid copy that was unable to validate; five invalid attempts.
I wonder if they plan to apologize to the 80% of their customers who got this system foisted on them without recourse (you have to enable WGA to get security fixes).
Not to mention, the 20% must be either really stupid (I wonder if my Haxxored Windows copy will validate? Gee, let's try!) or, more likely, have misconfigured Windows systems or bugs in WGA that report them as invalid when they probably own a legitimate license.
Great marketing strategy though: punish your legit user-base as the pirates work around your system. Can't wait to see how Vista improves things. I'm excited to see what "advantage" I'm "genuinely" going to get.
Disclosure: I only allow WGA on my work machine, where I have little choice and didn't pay the license fee personally.
That's a lot...
Already (and, at the time I'm posting this, there are only around 25 comments), there are people talking about how copies of XP that they know they obtained legally fail to authenticate (so the reported piracy rate might be inflated), people pointing out, correctly, that even a modestly bright pirate will be smart enough not to try to authenticate when he knows it will fail (and so the estimated piracy rate might be too low), and people coming up with a smattering of other ways in which WGA could give false positives or negatives.
It seems safe to say that Microsoft has no frelling clue how many pirated copies of XP are out there, and that WGA is approximately useless as a tool for trying to count them. Not that it will matter at all in the media -- "One In Five Windows Installs Is Non-Genuine" is too good a headline to pass up.
put 50 billion dollars into the man's pockets. What exactly is his complaint again? Piracy has also insured that Apple only gets 5 percent of the market. Why? Because it's rather difficult to bootleg the giant "Macintosh" dongle that apple attached to its software. Draw your own conclusions about the subject of piracy. For me, the numbers speak for themselves, quite loudly. Just adding to the chorus of voices in my head.
What?
"Oh, and apart from Windows: I don't pirate anything else"
That's not pirated, that's plain old 100% classic stolen.
The revolution will not be televised... but it will have a page on Wikipedia
[AOL] Me too! [/AOL]
If that's the only basis for Microsoft's estimate, they are *way* off, and I bet actually piracy isn't even half that.
I have 5 different machines running XP. 3 of them insist they are pirated...even though I have receipts and valid license certificates bought from OfficeMax for two copies, and the third copy came installed with the machine when I bought it new out of the box. When I contacted Microsoft about this, their tech's response was words to the effect of "You'll have to buy valid copies again." My response was, and I quote, "Fuck you, I'll just crack WGA on my validly purchased copies that I already own, and I dare you assholes to try and prosecute."
I want a new quote. One that won't spill. One that don't cost too much. Or come in a pill.
1. How many installs are erroneously flagged as genuine?
2. How many installs are erroneously flagged as not genuine?
3. How many installs are not seen by WGA?
4. How many of those are genuine/not genuine?
Please correct me if I got my facts wrong.
Looks like SCO have managed to wangle some mod points on slashdot... anyone with a sense of humour and mod points like to mod that the way it should be?
The revolution will not be televised... but it will have a page on Wikipedia
I currently have 4 machines running windows presently. Two desktops, two laptops. The laptops are quite legit, both came shipped with windows, Media center edition, and Pen edition. The desktops were not shipped with windows but have legit copies of XP pro on them.
The laptops, i've only had issue with one, the Toshiba pen edition. I "wanted" to do a fresh install on a fresh drive, but didn't have the tablet edition, nor was downloading possible as no copy would take my legit key.
Desktops, I've had NOTHING but issues. Motherboard upgrades, pre WGA systems would fail to authentiate. Post WGA systems in all fairness the warning was a tad more tolerant. I could browse the net, and get a resolution, well, except for the fact that on my via based board you needed to download the USB drivers, so alot of hassle to backup a system who's motherboard failed, who due to Nortons wouldn't mount under XP, just to get the same glitch when trying to transfer the old install to a new system.
I understand what microsoft is doing. They are trying to prevent casual piracy, those casual pirates who would otherwise buy one copy and use on many machines are likely to just buy another copy. But what they are actually doing is encouraging people like my self to download a cracked version of xp pro corp.
It would be "nice" if you could tell freaking windows "I bought new hardware, transfer this license". They can be control freaks till their hearts explode, so long as they continue to permit me to
1) Backup my existing install of windows
2) in the event of hardware failure, restore a backup, and have it work, or transfer the hard disk to another machine without assuming i've gone rogue.
There is no sanctuary. There is no sanctuary. SHUT UP! There is no shut up. There is no shut up.
I had three that failed, all of them HPs that I bought at Wal-Mart. Two of them failed multiple times, so they are now Linux-powered. The third one only fails if I download updates and try to run them instead of using Microsoft Update and automatic installation.
I do on-site computer repair. In the last 6 years, I have only seen the WGA notifier notify of two truly invalid copies of Windows. (In both cases, the user knew/acknowledged that their copy was likely not properly licensed.) In the same time, I've seen hardware from HP and Dell both come with a key that the MS program cites as invalid, and declares non-genuine. Both with their original OEM installs.
So of WGA-flagged installs I have seen in the past few years, HALF were, in fact, valid installs that were flagged improperly. What was REALLY goofy is that one succeeded in re-activation, and even after re-activation, WGA still insisted it wasn't valid! (The other didn't need reactivation.)
Another non-functioning site was "uncertainty.microsoft.com."
The purpose of that site was not known.
Our company has Dell machines with the reg code right on the side. Since Windows gets garbaged up on a regular basis, it's necessary to reinstall. Who knows where our original discs went, but I've got Windows 2000 discs (don't dare to use XP, especially since it's of no benefit) - but they don't recognize the Dell serial number. So I log on to the net, find a pirate serial number, and the rest of the install goes fine. We freaking own these machines, and licences for them. And by the way, the cd rom drives had been updated to cdrw but the machine didn't know how to boot off those. And some brilliant engineer had the idea to reformat the machines by sticking working hard drives from other (same exact model) machines, of course that didn't work either.
Meanwhile, on my Macs, I'm continuing to be productive. No serial numbers necessary. Hard drive swap works. Any cd I plug in just works, no drivers. And no looking up install/driver/whatever procedures on arcane Linux/BSD sites either.
It's also theft. Did you miss the part where he lifted it from his employer?
I've bought/built about 20 PCs for personal use over the years. I bought retail or retail upgrades for each machine (I have 3 concurrent licenses in total). Recently I got a SMART warning and swapped a data drive. I had to talk to a Microsoft support person to get a new license key as the one that came with my install CD didn't work. I since then had to swap the system drive and submitted a support request b/c it won't run windows update and they assigned me a case # a month ago and haven't called back. Fortunately for the community I know Microsoft's machines - even when patched - are a risk so I don't allow them on the public network without a firewall (openbsd in my case). However they should know better than to prevent a paying customer from applying their patches.
Feh. I don't bother with WGA. Check out http://www.windizupdate.com
110100 1101000 1101000 1100110 0 1101111 1101000 1100011 1
What you're saying is simply not true.
It's true that MSDN AA licenses are "restricted" in that you can't use them for commercial use, and you can't use new licenses/new installs after you leave an institution that is part of an MSDN AA program.
However they specifically state that you may continue using already installed software for as long as you wish after you leave your program, as long as you keep to the original non commercial rules - ie. follow the original license requirements. Therefore if they're marking an install as non-genuine, they aren't keeping to their own agreement. What I suspect happened here is that an institution has been giving out the shared media with a shared key, which isn't how it works (or at least not how it works wherever I've seen this) - students can share installation media but should still be granted individual keys by the MSDN AA administrator.
Yes, I should know better. Wish SoE would provide a decent Vanguard SOH port to Linux...
Do not mock my vision of impractical footwear
This is similar to my situation. I upgrade often but only had one working desktop at a time. Now I use the Windows "Flea Market" distro, but my pirate status isn't so clear cut. I have one computer and I've purchased one XP license.
I have to wonder how many people fall into my category. If anything, this 1-in-5 statistic is an indictment WGA and it's reliability in determining whether or not you are "Genuine".
I doubt many geeks have non-genuine Windows installs. My Thinkpad has a small Windows XP partition on it for playing a few old games (although WINE is rapidly making even the obsolete). It is 100% legal, however, even though I didn't pay a penny for it. It's not like Microsoft makes it hard to get a free copy of Windows if you look a bit like you might be writing code on it and strengthening their vendor lock-in...
I am TheRaven on Soylent News
False positive rate?
Not sure, but we do work for schools. I walked in to a computer lab one day, and saw perhaps 5 out of 30 machines with a stupid WGA error message. Mind you, all of these machines were the identical model PC, purchased at the same time, imaged at the same time, with the exact same WinXP disk image and the exact same internet access.
Based on that, I'd say their 22% rate is just about accurate, though not for the reasons they think.
The vast, vast majority of piracy, from my experience, doesn't come from blackhats using hexeditors in their spare times wanting a free ride: It comes from moms and pops who don't know any better. If microsoft just stops THOSE, the leftovers "hardcores" (the ones that will spend all night on shady web sites and IRC looking for cracks and anonymous FTPs, or making the cracks themselves, etc) are most likely negligeable in numbers.
Its the 80/20 rule. If Microsoft can stop 80 percents of the piracy, with 20 percent of the effort, its worth it. Stopping the last 20% would cost more than the money they'd make otherwise, especialy if you consider, like you said, that a lot of those wouldn't even use it otherwise. And Microsoft (I actualy think it was Bill Gates) did publicly say before: "If they're going to pirate softwares, we'd rather they pirate ours". It makes sense: Mindshare is worth more than customers, in a way.
"Nobody knows the age of the human race, but everybody agrees that it is old enough to know better." - Unknown
I had a similar thing happen to me, upgraded one too many times in X number of days. However, I called Microsoft's telephone activation (per the dialog box that popped up), gave them the code that Windows gave me, assured the guy on the other end that I only had XP installed on one machine, and they gave me a code to activate.
http://crummysocks.com
Why did you replace XP? I've upgraded plenty and invalidated my copy of windows. It took an annoying 30 minute phone call to convince M$ that I was legit, but in the end they've always validated me. I even have the same copy running on two different machines, and i've never had a problem with them validating them over the phone. It seems that if you have any kind of semi-reasonable explanation they don't ask too many questions.
I got nothin'
Search google...
"wga crack" ext:bittorrent
Solves the problem, and puts the WGA numbers back where they should be.
I distribute a miniCD to friends that fix that WGA problems with windows XP.
I never bothered with XP at all, precisely because of this product activation crap. But I too did the right thing, and legally bought a Mac. Curiously, I then started paying for all my (commercial) software - perhaps because I am older and richer than I was, but I think not having an adversarial relationship with my computer and not feeling like I was being fucked over by an abusive monopolist helped too.
Chernobyl 'not a wildlife haven' - BBC News
"All you had to do was call Microsoft and they would have validated you over the phone"
That's such a creepy statement. You are not valid without microsoft's consent... fortunately, for your convenience, you may be validated by telephone.
For an additional $199, Bill Gates will baptize you over the phone.
ôó
"Nobody knows the age of the human race, but everybody agrees that it is old enough to know better." - Unknown
me too!
I'm using Parallels Desktop on my Mac Pro with a bought XP full license, and
every once in a while the OS in the VM will require reactivation when booted.
The first time I did this I went through the online activation, the second
time it wouldn't reactivate and I had to go through the Microsoft phone operator.
Now when it happens I just restore from a copy of the VM file and keep going. The
virtual machine environment should present the same hardward configuration and system ID
to the OS, shouldn't it?
-- Gary Goldberg KA3ZYW 301/249-6501 AIM:OgGreeb Digital Marketing Inc., Bowie, MD
Oh you've got to be kidding. This is the hight of Slashdot delusional thinking. You know as well as I do that the primary source of cracked XP is geeks. Same with cracked Photoshop and all the rest. Next thing, you'll be telling me that no one here has any pirated music.
If you want news from today, you have to come back tomorrow.
Just use Auto Patcher
At least in this country, I find these numbers extremely hard to believe. Mostly because the vast majority of machines sold come with windows preinstalled on them. How do people then pirate it? I guess some people illegally upgrade their version to a newer one, but most people who have computers don't seem to know enough to be capable of doing this. There are the friends who might do this for them, but that doesn't seem too likely, as most people are content with their computer. . . As long as everything still works.
There's the key I guess. Most people don't care for their computer, and it shows, over time the install goes to hell, getting viruses spyware, etc. Then they may get a friend to come over and help them, and the friend may install a pirated version of windows, maybe a fancier one, maybe the same type (but not the same copy), or maybe even the same copy.
This is illegal . . . technically, but hard to really say it is, as the people do have the right to use windows on their computer, and that's often the only way they can.
With windows XP at least, I wouldn't doubt if more copies of it have been sold than their are copies currently in use! It seems like a crazy statement, but considering how many companies buy machines with windows preinstalled, and then install their site licensed copy on the machine. Plus how many people have had machines get outdated, or crippled, or break on them, and bought a new computer to replace it. How many copies of windows were thrown out because of that?
I can't speak for other countries, as I'm sure there are places where piracy runs rampant, and you can easily buy computers without windows preinstalled, or with an illegitimate copy installed, but in the US this generally isn't the case. Maybe MS should take these figures into account and say something like "-30% of windows copies in the US are pirated", after taking into account the anti-pirated cases of double licenses etc. Of course, things don't really work that way.
Now other software I imagine the number is much higher. What percentage of copies of office are less than legitimate? I imagine those are much higher, and a 20-30% install base being illegal wouldn't be too far off. of course, even here with so many copies sold to businesses, it dillutes the home market that's far more likely to pirate software than corporate ones (people can get in far less trouble generally).
Phil
I clicked on the link in your sig and I have some constructive criticism to offer your company.
> Photoshop has 20+ layer modes. We offer 70+ at 10% the cost. [blackbeltsystems.com]
Wow is that web-page UGLY. You'd think that a company offering image manipulation software would know enough about imaging to not have such an ugly webpage. Especially annoying shit like
* blue text on two slightly different blue backgrounds for the navigation links
* metalled embossed hard to read fonts as headers
* "link-heavy" text with more links than text (put it into a list of feature links)
* multi-column text that goes off-page requiring "back-scrolling" to read
* juvenile snipes at vague competitors rather than professional and objective feature comparisons
* overuse of exclamation points! Especially in testimonials! No Really!
* prominent google ads for a site trying to sell commercial software
For punishment, I suggest you make your web-page designer navigate this site for an hour or two: http://corson.tv/main/buttugly.htm
So personally, I would have to say any figures Microsoft gives on this aren't even close to accurate.
There is no -1 Disagree mod. Slashdot.org/faq defines mod options. USE IT.
Are you sure they were really false positives?
Most problems with XP i've seen so far are machines that do have a valid Pro OEM Key to be installed with a (well known pirate) VLP Pro Key.
This problem was mostly caused by lazy pc repair shops and neighboorhood kids.
This problem was mostly caused by lazy pc repair shops and neighboorhood kids.
I can well belive that,
Its going to be so much less effort to stick in a slipstreamed pirate CD and enter your standard pirate VLK than to try and find the correct big brand oem recovery CD and try to convince it to work in a way that didn't wipe the entire system and leave it loaded with shitware or to use a generic oem CD and try to convince MS to activate the result.
At the end of the day time is money and doing it the legit way is so much more effort!
note: i'm known as plugwash most places but i screwd up registering that here somehow in the past and now can't register