Gates Proclaims Internet to Revolutionize TV in 5 Years

adamlazz writes "With an explosion of online video content on sites like YouTube and Google Video, Bill Gates believes that the Internet will revoloutionize the television within the next 5 years. 'I'm stunned how people aren't seeing that with TV, in five years from now, people will laugh at what we've had,' Gates told business leaders and politicians at the World Economic Forum. "

Comments

Oh, just what I needed...

[Mikachu]

...the blue screen of death on my TV set.

Re:Oh, just what I needed...

[smallfries]

That's probably what people said when Gates proclaimed IPTV in 1990, 1995, 2000 and 2007. That's the great thing about predictions, if you make them often enough they must come true...

Re:Oh, just what I needed...

[littlem]

640 channels ought to be enough for anyone...

Re:Oh, just what I needed...

[moranar]

That's probably what people said when Gates proclaimed IPTV in 1990, 1995, 2000 and 2007. That's the great thing about predictions, if you make them often enough they must come true...

Y'know, I still don't see flying cars anywhere near. On the other hand, it will be a cold day in Hell before I start paying attention to what Gates has to say about the Internet. His company almost missed it. MSN, hah.

Re:Oh, just what I needed...

[egyptiankarim]

Bill Gates makes a lot of proclamations, and personally I refuse to take anything he says seriously until I get that $100 dollars he promised to give me for sending out that Email to ten of my friends... :P

Re:Oh, just what I needed...

[Kjella]

So, how many times did you try it before you found out that Bill Gates was pulling your leg?

TV? Pffft.

[gEvil (beta)]

Television is just a passing fad... : p

We need an obvious tag

[Bullfish]

In other predictions... people will still be downloading music and movies... the RIAA will still be crying... most TV shows will still be craps and the most secure version of windows yet will be just around the corner

Re:We need an obvious tag

[garcia]

most TV shows will still be craps

I don't know if you can access CurrentTV, but if you can make sure you sit down and watch a couple of pods. This is what he's talking about when he mentions that it's going to revolutionize TV. Viewer submitted content (that they're paying for) that appears on TV is amazing to watch.

You get a first hand account of newly reported news items but without the lame over-processed and practiced "Live Eyewitness News Reporter" feel. Some of the shit on CurrentTV blows my mind and some of it is viewer submitted advertising for products that you would have probably never heard about on the mainstream media.

Now, with archived content available online, we will finally get to see the Tubes be used for part of their potential.

The Museum of Bill Gates Proclamations

[RonBurk]

Has anybody ever collected all Bill's foresights since he became wealthy enough to be presumed prescient? I'm sure they would be entertaining reading when put all together sequentially.

My prediction is: Bill will tell us that the next version of Windows after Vista is going to be really secure this time.

Re:The Museum of Bill Gates Proclamations

[kfg]

Bill does not actually make predictions. He makes press release statements. They're a form of marketing.

He isn't telling us what he thinks will happen so much as he is telling us what he wants to happen so that he makes a lot of money. By forming it as a prediction he gets the masses to start looking in that direction and expecting what it is he is intending to sell them, thus making it easier to sell it to them, because now they think that's what they "want."

It's similar to telling someone that their neighbor has already bought the widget you're selling; with the implication that if you don't buy one too you've missed the boat. The psychology of the herd. What are "they" going to be wearing next year? Ok, give me some of that.

Thus you cannot embarass Bill by pointing out his failures at prognostication, because he views them as failures to manipulate.

But here's the Gatesian twist: He blames you for it.

KFG

Re:The Museum of Bill Gates Proclamations

[sootman]

Well, I seem to remember him saying in 2004 that spam would be solved within 2 years.

My TV is fine, Gates. Get back to work fixing my inbox--it's overflowing because of all those shitty Windows computers you put out that are now spam zombies.

this from the guy who doesn't own one?

[Speare]

Okay, so Gates hired dozens if not hundreds of developers in the 80s and early 90s who were very familiar with the value of the Internet, yet they missed the bandwagon in incorporating TCP/IP features and protocols until it was already commonplace in the market? And all the while, Gates was smugly declaring that he didn't own a television set and had completely disconnected from the Joe Sixpack culture of sponging in front of a boob tube like the rest of America. Yet, somehow he feels he's adequately informed to see the way that the television culture will shift to an Internet culture in a given timeframe? The only reason that this sounds at all plausible is because Apple and Sony and TiVo and Google and other companies already have been working in that direction. Welcome to the 2000s, Bill.

He's right

[eyeball]

Here's exactly how he'll do it: He'll piss off enough people with Windows that they will be driven to Apple, where they will be watching TV shows purchased on iTunes on their iPod, iPhone, computer, or iTV. People will laugh at more than just "what we had..."

TV will prevail

[OberonX]

I believe TV, albeit in a different form, will continue to exist for a long time. What a lot people dont seem to realize is that the lack of interaction and choice with TV can be an advantage. The passivity of the watching experience is actually its best selling point, the ability to arrive home tired from work(and likely to have been in front of a computer) and just sit down and watch mindless junk for a couple of hours. TVs role will diminish but I would be doubtful if pre-programmed channels(even if over the internet) will ever disappear.

Re:"640K ought to be enough for anybody."

[despisethesun]

Except there's no evidence that he ever said that.

Re:Spam

[dvice_null]

2004-01-26 he said that it would be solved in two years:
http://www.informationweek.com/story/showArticle.j html?articleID=17500979

Re:No chance

[Aladrin]

Why does this always get modded insightful? Some countries have 100megabit internet as the standard. The US is still stuck around 7-10mbit for the majority of us. 7-10mbit is PLENTY to watch TV on. Are you saying that business will be unable to cope with giving the customer what they want to pay for?

In processing power terms, that's like saying 'Nobody will be able to play these 'nextgen' video games because the processing power isn't there.' (Yes, people said that. We have gone FAR beyond that point now.)

In data storage terms, that's like saying games will never look real because you'd have to distribute too much information. (Yes, people said that. CDs came in and kicked this idiocy to the curb. Then DVDs. Then HD-DVD/BluRays.)

The market will be there to provide what we want as soon as we have a use for it. You can count on it.

What would you want to watch today?

[dgr73]

"and the Oscar for best picture goes to.." *BZZZTTTTT* -Your TV is not up to date. Would you like to update now? NO! -Would you like to be reminded to update later? Yes yes.. -Your Antivirus is not turned on, would you like to switch on your ant.. NO! GOD! -You have unwatched channels in your TV, click here to have unwatched channels removed from your channel listing OH FOR CHRISSAKE! *Enter crappy looking paperclip* -Hi, i'm TVBuddy! I see you've stopped viewing your program to do maintenance, so I took the liberty of saving the place for you. To continue viewing where you left off, press CTRL+WIN+TV+7+D, to just view in realtime press TV, to go off on a wild goose chase, click HELP. Finally some good news, yes! CTRL+WIN..... -TVKRNL.DLL has experienced a Fatal error, please contact your IT support with error details found in tvcrash.dmp *Windows box flies out of the window*

An analysis of The Road Ahead, 10 years later

[Infonaut]

http://www.bit-tech.net/bits/2006/02/08/road_ahead _billgates/.

I found this using Google, of course. ;)

Will digital delivery change film/TV?

[ofcourseyouare]

What Gates didn't say is that one of the most important devices to bring about this change in viewing habits is going to be Apple TV. I would imagine that Jobs would agree with most of what Gates says in TFA.

IMHO online delivery will obviously have a huge effect on video watching habits: 5 years? 10? It'll vary depending on how much of an early adopter you are (or your country is), but it'll come for sure.

BT Vision, recently launched in the UK, has a quite interesting hybrid model, where one interface gives you access to digital broadcasting-through-the-air (for watching news, sports, etc) as well as to VoD and the stuff you've got on your PVR. Could solve a lot of the obvious issues around live broadcasts watched by millions crashing IP networks.

Moving on slightly -- the interesting question, I think, is whether it will change the nature of film and TV: i.e. is digital, networked video just a distribution method, or is it a new medium.

A further quote from BG, from a conference a couple of years ago...

Bill Gates: "the difference between watching TV or film and playing a video game won't be the black and white difference that it is today; soon, there will be a spectrum of shades of grey".

Now before you write this off, note the following from Peter Jackson about six months ago...

Peter Jackson: "what's interesting is...conveying stories using (digital) technology which will allow an interactive component - but they're not movies and they're not games... there should be another form of entertainment... what's interesting is the crossover"

And Guillermo del Toro (director of "Blade II" and the amazing "Pan's Labyrinth"): "in the next 10 years, narrative media will shift to a hybrid of video games and movies"..."like the shift from silent movies to talkies; some movie people will be able to make the jump, but many won't."

There's a possible parallel with the development of film: in the early days, some filmmakers thought film was basically like theatre: so in their movies, the camera didn't move, the scenery was theatrical flats, the actor's whole body was shown, there were few cuts. With time, people realised film wasn't a distribution medium for theatre -- it was a whole new medium. And with it came close-ups, moving cameras, outdoor locations, etc.

IMHO we're at a similar stage now, where people are starting to see that broadband (and possibly digital cinema, later) is not just a distribution method for traditional linear film and video, it's a whole new medium with its own unique characteristics. Like any medium, it rewards those who understand and work with its characteristics.

This does NOT mean naive (and doomed) movies where you "choose-the-ending". In broadband, it means creating pieces where, within the limits of the technology, you can converse with stars, explore artworks, listen to talks customised to your interests and level of knowledge, play beach volleyball, etc. There are a number of interactive video pieces online demonstrating that this sort of thing works.

What Gates and Jobs see as the future of video devices is just the beginning of opening up the creative possiblities of video with interactivity.

Re:Oh, just what I needed... (OT)

[geobeck]

...the blue screen of death on my TV set.

Reminds me of something William Gibson said about the opening line to Neuromancer:

The sky above the port was the color of television, tuned to a dead channel.

I don't have an exact quote, but his comment was that a change in the way TV manufacturers dealt with dead channels completely changed the meaning of that sentence.

I digress; back to your regularly-scheduled comments.