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Fedora Metrics Help Whole Linux Community
lisah writes "When Fedora released Fedora Core 6 late last year, the team decided to track the number of users with unique IP addresses who connected to yum in search of updates for a new installation of FC6. According to the data they collected, FC6 crossed the one-million user mark in just 74 days. Fedora Project Leader Max Spevack says that while it's great to use metrics to better understand what users want, the real value lies in its ability to encourage hardware vendors to more offer more Linux-oriented goods and services. Spevack told Linux.com: '[W]e always say we wish hardware vendors had more [Linux-capable] drivers. Well, if you can go to them and say, "Hey, there's millions of people using this," then maybe they will listen. In the real world, you need data to prove your case. Well, here it is.'" Linux.com and Slashdot are both owned by OSTG.
Doesn't collecting data make you evil?
"reality has a well-known liberal bias" - Steven Colbert
I have legacy hardware, and too little knowledge, so I'm too afraid to switch from Core 3 to 6. God only knows what would break, and I sure don't know enough to work around it. But if I could get 6, I'd be in their statistic too. There's bound to be more people like me, who can't get 6 for some reason. So that number is a low estimate!
Saddly this metric will be very quickly attacked because of all users who have broadband connections with IP changing every 24 hours.
...
Maybe counting how many different IPs downloaded *1* given critical update will be more precise (based on the assumption that even users with non permanent IP will download the patch once to secure their machines, and then won't download it again).
But even if it lacks precision, it is still a good indicator that Linux *IS* in fact popular and much more widespread than people think.
It just lacks sales figures to prove it.
Specially when compared to the so-many "Vista didn't get a warm welcome" reports we read a lot those days.
"Sufficiently advanced satire is indistinguishable from reality." - [Tips: 1DrYakQDKCQ6y52z6QbnkxHXAocMZJE61o ]
IP addresses are necessarily unique ("one of a kind"). You mean "distinct" here.
"Skill shows through where genius wears thin." -Wittgenstein || Religion: uniting aviation and architecture.
Not saying there isn't a vast number of Linux users (I'm sure there are well over a million individual Linux users - that's a third of 1% of just the American population), just that numbers from data like this can be skewed.
I just installed FC6 on a machine yesterday, and they made it impossible to do anything without connecting to their server. I'm keeping the machine off the network, but apparently there's no way to install packages from the DVD without first downloading the update lists from their mirrors.
.repo files to point to the DVD instead of the internet, but it still crashes with mysterious errors about media uris. I finally gave up and installed Ubuntu instead. So no, this doesn't help the whole Linux community. We'd be furious is Microsoft imposed this sort of requirement on new installations.
The Add/Remove gui (and yum) crashes if DNS isn't available. After some research, I was able to hack the yum
Given the numbers coming out, I'd think that it sure can't hurt for these guys to post the number they are.
e ctor=Briefings
Here(2nd page ) Mark Shuttleworth mentioned Ubuntu having 8 million active users:
http://redherring.com/PrintArticle.aspx?a=20497&s
Now what are the hardware vendors waiting for? Permission from Microsoft?
LoB
"Anyone who stands out in the middle of a road looks like roadkill to me." --Linus
Personally I don't understand shyness/lack of will/underrating ourselves in these case. Look at Firefox, they made whole PR campange around those numbers! And if they won't matter....THEY DO. They are true numbers who can be verifired, checked, compared, etc.
I think most of problem of using meme "look at the numbers, user count are huge, man" is that there's lot of geeks which don't see this argument as simply valid (those numbers can't be wrong, etc. etc.). They would like to better convince hardware developers that they MUST get those damn specs (by some hidden morale or simple common sense, which, I agree, exists in this case too) out rather trying to wow them to community side (presentations, numbers, proof of concept (you don't have to care about driver, etc.)).
We need more actions like SpreadFirefox, period. Done right, they just work.
user@ubuntubox:~$ stfu This server is going down for shutdown NOW!
Collecting non-personally identifying data, that would be logged anyway during the normal process of the server function (httpd/ftpd daemons will log connection anyway wether or not FC owners choose to do something out of it) and publishing only the compiled form (the total number. Opposed to the complete obfuscated [rot5 scrambled ?] list, AOL-style), ISN'T EVIL (It just similar to the "number of visitors" counters back in the old Web 1.0 days).
/. crowd).
Collecting data in an opt-in manner like http://counter.li.org/ to do statistic. ISN'T EITHER
Collecting data, that don't necessary need to be collected for technical reason (IP address vs. Pentium serial number), without telling it the user first, without asking permission to the user first, THAT IS EVIL (and regularly done by microsoft and other object of hatred from the
"Sufficiently advanced satire is indistinguishable from reality." - [Tips: 1DrYakQDKCQ6y52z6QbnkxHXAocMZJE61o ]
It's how any new systems are being checked for the first time, and most people probably aren't reinstalling it constantly and downloading updates, so there's very little attacking you could do to these figures.
I'm the guy who actually maintains that Statistics page on the Fedora wiki.
The real "story" here is a couple of things:
THING 1 -- We're making the best effort that we can at showing the world how many installations of Fedora Core 6 we know about.
THING 2 -- We're being upfront about the assumptions and caveats that go along with that number. Quoting:
"Accuracy of metrics
We believe it is reasonable to equate a "new IP address checking in" with "a new installation of FC6", with the following caveats:
1. Users who have dynamic IP addresses will likely be counted multiple times, which inflates the number by some amount.
2. Users who are behind NAT, corporate proxies, or who rsync updates to a local mirror before updating will not be counted at all.
The anecdotal evidence that we receive from different groups, companies, and organizations makes it quite clear that group (2) is significantly larger than group (1). As such, we believe that the true numbers in the field are higher than the numbers on this page."
THING 3 -- We're also being upfront about how that number is generated.
I'm not trying to spin the data in any way. I'm just putting it up there, and trying to do so as objectively as possible. Anyone can draw their own conclusions, or compare it to data from other distributions, if you can find similar reporting.
Welcome to Fedoraland!
I stole this Sig
So just fire up a live CD with a recent kernel and try it out. You don't have to upgrade if it doesn't work. Hardware drivers are in the kernel, so just testing the right kernel on your system will tell you whether it works (mostly).
FC3 uses kernel 2.6.9
FC6 uses kernel 2.6.18
Intron: the portion of DNA which expresses nothing useful.
you need to learn to use Slackware, it is the best distro for old hardware...
Politics is Treachery, Religion is Brainwashing
How are they using the IP address for marketing purposes? They're using the number of IP addresses. No one can take the information they've released and determine that a computer at x.x.x.x is running Fedora. (And the information they have, they would have had anyway -- just like Slashdot knows the IP address you posted from.) As the GP said, it's no different from a website processing its server logs and reporting that it had X unique visitors during period Y.
Come to think of it, since yum fetches data over HTTP, it is a website processing its server logs and reporting the number of unique visitors.
Personally, I rsync from a mirror and have a local repository, so I have a whole bunch of machines that dont get counted. Stuff like that will result in the numbers being a bit off.
"so I'm too afraid to switch from Core 3 to 6."
If you upgrade that rarely, I'd suggest you take a look at CentOS. CentOS 4 will be a far smaller leap (RHEL4 is close to FC3/FC4), and you'd be on a maintained platform again.
Fedoraland? Bah. Tuxembourg!
There might be an outcry if Microsoft did that, just because people hate Microsoft and think Microsoft is evil, but that wouldn't mean that doing it would be evil. (So, Microsoft may in fact be evil, but not necessarily everything they do is evil, and moreover, just because they could do something, doesn't make it evil.)
There's nothing wrong with saying "x people accessed Windows Update this [year|month|day]." That's no different from the hit counters that used to exist on every web site. (And which were tacky, and I thank God that people finally realized this.)
What would be evil, and the temptation they need to avoid, is to take their server logs and start mining them for data that can be sold or used for malicious purposes; i.e. personally identifying information about what users are using what versions of Windows, or even how often they're updating, etc.
Aggregate information about hits is something that HTTP servers and their operators do all the time. Where it gets evil is when you have cookies tracking particular users across multiple sites, etc.
"Ladies and gentlemen, my killbot features Lotus Notes and a machine gun. It is the finest available."
i had no idea people still had these kinds of problems, they are what drove me from RH/Mandrake years ago. I moved to Debian Sarge (before it was "stable" even) and even did a dist-upgrade from sarge to ubuntu on one system. "apt" upgrades are rarely a problem even when the system is "live" and not booted off a CD, and never an issue if done from the console so that when upgrading libs the X server doens't crash on you.
Oldest system I do this with a 486DX2 50Mhz with 32 Meg ram and there's never a problem. It's actualy an HP Network Scanjet 5 with an Ubuntu "command line" install and the Enhanced scripts to run the interface, no idea where else a 486 with linux would be all that usefull to maintain though I'm sure there are some out there.
- Disclaimer: Information in this post deemed reliable but not guaranteed.
I just did a retro-fit upgrade and an install on two machines and neither went to the "yum" repository mirrors to do an update till after they finished their first reboot where I had to activate the update manually (and get the gpg keys installed).
- I remember that "install" at some point gave me an option to install against latest package in the "yum" repositories, which I do not do for speed.
- I remember the "upgrade" and "install" screens from Anaconda being different. The "upgrade" never asked me to update against the "yum" repositories.
"pup", which is the graphical tool analog to "yum", handles rotating through the mirrors properly as far as I remember where it just fails over to the next if the current one can't be reached. I've had my Internet die while trying to do this, I don't recall it ever crashing on me and this is doing many installs and upgrades across every version of Fedora.
I don't blame you for switching to something else given these problems. I'm just stumped how you got these problems.
From the article:
"We believe it is reasonable to equate a "new IP address checking in" with "a new installation of FC6", with the following caveats:
1. Users who have dynamic IP addresses will likely be counted multiple times, which inflates the number by some amount.
2. Users who are behind NAT, corporate proxies, or who rsync updates to a local mirror before updating will not be counted at all.
The anecdotal evidence that we receive from different groups, companies, and organizations makes it quite clear that group (2) is significantly larger than group (1). As such, we believe that the true numbers in the field are higher than the numbers on this page. "
Beware of he who would deny you access to information, for in his heart he dreams himself your master.