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Scientists Offered Cash to Dispute Climate Study

w1z4rd writes "According to an article in the Guardian, scientists and economists have been offered large bribes by a lobbying group funded by ExxonMobil. The offers were extended by the American Enterprise Institute group, which apparently has numerous ties to the Bush administration. Couched in terms of an offer to write 'dissenting papers' against the findings of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, several scientists contacted for the article refused the offers on conflict of interest grounds."

56 of 668 comments (clear)

  1. Re:The Report by micktaggart · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Just because ExxonMobil paid someone, does not mean the arguments the scientist made are not valid, although they might as well be; same goes for the people who worked at the IPCC report. Let's stick to the actual arguments and data, instead of making cheap ad hominem attacks.

  2. Please keep the knee-jerk to a minimum... by PFI_Optix · · Score: 2, Insightful

    If a report were issued that global warming was not manmade and a thinktank offered a similar reward, would you also call it a bribe?

    If (and this is a very strong IF) they do this right, what they are doing is using money to accelerate the scientific debate. If there are errors in the report that other scientists can find, there is now incentive to find them and weed them out. It's the scientific process pushed forward by money.

    The downside of it will, of course, be that a lot of "scientists" will make wild claims in an attempt to collect on this cash and muddy the waters. But I think in the long run this might actually speed up the process by which we arrive at a definite conclusion to the debate and finally start seriously working on solutions.

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    1. Re:Please keep the knee-jerk to a minimum... by ScentCone · · Score: 3, Insightful

      When a scientist takes money to report a specific result, that's a bribe.

      How about when a scientist is funded to point out the ways in which another (paid!) scientist's conclusions may be either wrong or taken in a politically-driven context that's all about fear? When a scientist is paid to challenge widely-held beliefs that happen to be peculiarly embraced by one end of the political spectrum, and used as leverage to push legislative agendas that are more about redistribution of income or other unrelated non-science-ish stuff, we usually call that... science. You should be delighted that scientists are being offered money to publicly challenge the conclusions of other scientists. If the challenge is weak, the other scientists' findings are strengthened. If the challenge prevails, then it was essential that it was done. What's not to like?

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    2. Re:Please keep the knee-jerk to a minimum... by pubjames · · Score: 5, Insightful

      If a report were issued that global warming was not manmade and a thinktank offered a similar reward, would you also call it a bribe?

      Yes, of course. Scientists should never be paid to come to specific conclusions.

      It's the scientific process pushed forward by money.

      No, it's the scientific process being corrupted by money.

    3. Re:Please keep the knee-jerk to a minimum... by timmarhy · · Score: 2, Insightful

      do you honestly think the people who wrote this report were unpaid and had no bias of their own? take the blinders off.

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  3. Damn liberals! by spun · · Score: 2, Insightful

    This is just propaganda from the liberal controlled greeny environmental industry, making shit up to slander the good name of an honest, productive and responsible corporation. Everyone knows global warming scientists are rich as Midas from all the money funneled to them by their commie-pinko-socialist masters, of course they don't need to take money from an honest corporation! Just think, this poor industry, barely making ends meet, scrapes up a little money to try to help fund some REAL SCIENCE, and these vicious intelelctuals turn on them like a pack of wild dogs. /right-wing-parody

    Anyone want to place a bet on how many of these 'ideas' are going to become official talking points on Faux News?

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  4. Re:The Report by eldavojohn · · Score: 5, Insightful

    Just because ExxonMobil paid someone, does not mean the arguments the scientist made are not valid, although they might as well be; same goes for the people who worked at the IPCC report. Let's stick to the actual arguments and data, instead of making cheap ad hominem attacks.
    No, it doesn't mean their scientific findings aren't valid. But it sure the hell does mean they're financially motivated. Here's what should happen: Exxon should hire scientists to research this. If the report comes up against global warming, the scientists get $10,000 grand and stay employed. If the report comes up proving global warming is our fault, the scientists get $10,000 and stay employed. You have to approach a hypothesis willing to disprove or prove it--otherwise you're not engaging in the scientific process. You're basically paying "scientists" money to say something.

    Instead, we see Exxon offering money for the predetermined outcome of 'scientific' research. And that, my friend, is why I feel compelled to keep "making cheap ad hominem attacks." Because Exxon is pissing science down their leg and the public is paying attention to it when they shouldn't. Who's offering the $10,000 for the report proving global warming is our fault?
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  5. WTF is a "Former Scientist?" by good+soldier+svejk · · Score: 2, Insightful

    Among its authors are Tad Murty, a former scientist who believes human activity makes no contribution to global warming.
    Has he abandoned empiricism and scientific method in favor of rationalism? Disavowed science? Become an Objectivist? Had his degrees revoked for fraud? Who is this guy? And if his training is in oceanography, how did he get into civil engineering?
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  6. A bribe? by joNDoty · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Now before we all cry bloody murder, why are we calling this a bribe? There was a report released on global climate change. One company is hoping that there were shortcomings and inaccuracies in that report. That company doesn't have the scientific capability to refute the findings, so they are hiring scientists to document any and all shortcomings for them.

    As far as I can tell, there is no proof that they asked the scientists to lie. Unless, of course, you have already made up your mind that global warming is a fact and any attempt to refute it is corrupt and evil.

    The company involved is obviously biased, but I don't see an attempt to refute a study as evil in and of itself.

  7. Re:The Report by theStorminMormon · · Score: 4, Insightful

    No, it doesn't mean their scientific findings aren't valid. But it sure the hell does mean they're financially motivated.

    And the climate scientists who created this report aren't idealogically motivated? I'm sure some are. Some probably aren't. And scientists who respond to the $10,000 bounty may or may not be motivated. Frankly, I don't care about motivations. If you put out a bounty for an open source project, no one gets upset. Why should this be any different? If the scientist trades his/her credibility to create a fraudalent attack on the climate report that's unethical, but the fault of the scientist - not the bounty. ANd I have no doubt the life of such accusations will be short-lived.

    If ExonMobile itself wants to offer bounties for this research I really don't care. Let the scientists try to do the research. They will either come up with a valid criticis, or they won't.

    -stormin

    --
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  8. closed system by wmeyer · · Score: 2, Insightful

    There is no impartial scientist to be found. As earth is a closed system -- we're all here for the duration -- we all have a vested interest in the future. It makes little difference whether a study is financed by a corporation like ExxonMobil or by a green group with deep pockets; both have agendas, and in the final analysis, either the scientific methods are sound, or they're not, regardless of who is funding.

    The problem up to now has been the tendency of many to assume that a) because a study is endorsed by scientists, it must therefore be valid, and b) that if it is financed by a green organization or a government, it is therefore more trustworthy than if it were funded by a multinational corporation. Both assumptions are false. Of all the scientists on the planet, only a very small percentage are competent in the the analysis of climatological data, and of those, even fewer are knowledgeable with respect to the long term studies involved. As to funding and impartiality, every group I can think of has an agenda here, be they environmental groups, governments, or corporations.

    What is clearly needed is a rational study by qualified scientists, and discussion and even attacks on the conclusions drawn by other groups of equally qualified scientists. This is essentially the kind of thing that is done to keep scholarly journals on track. Articles are refereed by people with knowledge and experience in the field.

    Finally, one of the chief problems in trying to analyze the existing data is that we possess reasonably accurate data for only a very brief period of time, and from those data, we hope to extrapolate global long term trends. In undertaking that task, trends are extrapolated forward and backward, and assumptions are stacked upon assumptions. The further we get from today, in either direction, the less reliable are those assumptions. And let us not forget that we are still unable to reliably predict the weather more than a few days in advance, yet we have sufficient hubris to believe we can predict 100 years forward.

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    --- Bill
    1. Re:closed system by Grym · · Score: 4, Insightful

      There is no impartial scientist to be found. As earth is a closed system -- we're all here for the duration -- we all have a vested interest in the future. It makes little difference whether a study is financed by a corporation like ExxonMobil or by a green group with deep pockets; both have agendas, and in the final analysis, either the scientific methods are sound, or they're not, regardless of who is funding.

      Sure, in the strictest sense, there can be no completely disinterested person on this issue because we're all stakeholders of this rock we call Earth. That being said, there are some people who are far more invested in a particular outcome being true (or at least publicly believed) than others. You're kidding yourself if you think that "scientists" funded/employed by the most profitable industry in history (which has everything to lose, if anthropogenic climate change is real/accepted) are just as objective or impartial on this matter as regular scientists working off federal grants or university funding.

      Secondly, the philosophy of science isn't as objective as you might think. Sometimes your methods can be right, your experiments verified and repeatable, but your conclsions dead wrong. This happens frequently and is what makes scientific progress so difficult. However, ill-intentioned people can devise experiments that intentionally lead to false or misleading conclusions. This is the essence of bad science.

      The big hint, for laymen that this is taking place, is when such studies ignore the highly supported, well-documented claims of opposing theories and tend to focus on minor (often neglible) discrepancies or areas where there just isn't enough data to know for sure. Take Intelligent Design (ID), for example. Proponents of ID make no effort to debunk sequence homology studies or the fossil record, because doing so is extremely difficult if not impossible. Instead, ID supporters focus on a few select cases where the exact nature of biomolecular events is unknown (for now) and from that draw sweeping, and unsupported, conclusions about the entire theory of evolution.

      You'll note that global warming opponents do the same thing. You'll see their papers study carbon sinks (which, even if true, might be neglible in the scheme of things) or how variations in solar output (something that isn't well understood at this point) might fit the data. But what you don't see are papers denying the fact that increased cabon dioxide in the air is anthropogenic or disputing the basic science behind greenhouse gases in general.

      And let us not forget that we are still unable to reliably predict the weather more than a few days in advance, yet we have sufficient hubris to believe we can predict 100 years forward.

      That's like saying that because its impossible to know which direction an individual atom in a solution might go from instant to instant that net diffusion isn't predictable. And yet, diffusion is practically a mathematical law, in practice.

      Sometimes, things are far easier to predict in aggregate than they are individually. Take lifespan, for instance. Just because I can't predict, to the day, when an indvidual squirrel might die, that fact has no bearing upon my ability to make stunningly accurate predictions on the average lifespan of a group of squirrels. Furthermore, I'll remind you that the data for global climate change extends into thousands of years. It's not unreasonable to expect an accurate extrapolation for the next fifty or one-hundred years from that.

      -Grym

  9. Science and Publicity by Morosoph · · Score: 3, Insightful

    Just because ExxonMobil paid someone, does not mean the arguments the scientist made are not valid, although they might as well be; same goes for the people who worked at the IPCC report. Let's stick to the actual arguments and data, instead of making cheap ad hominem attacks.

    What you're saying makes perfect sense concerning the debate amoungst scientists, but when it comes to the popular debate, large amounts of funding will result in a proportional amount of material. Since the population at large don't have the wherewithall to analyse the findings, they look instead to the volume of the work produced and the reputation of those producing it.

    In the abscence of the capability to analyse the science itself, it help to know where the funding comes from. If the science is then picked up by a scientist who's sources appear not to be compromised, then it is reasonable to assume that it was sound science in the first place. This filter layer is the meaning of peer review. In the abscence of this filter layer, it is reasonable for the population to know that the funding is selecting for particular conclusions, thus possibly prejudicing the data or the analysis of that data.

    Knowledge of funding is part of the mechanism by which the non-scientist protects him or herself against junk science.

  10. Clearly, you don't understand grants by benhocking · · Score: 2, Insightful

    If you could scientifically (key word) demonstrate that humans made no significant contribution to global warming (within a certain margin of error, of course), you'd have no problem getting grants - especially from the current administration. (OK, maybe not "no problem". You also have to be able to write halfway well. Let's just say it'd be easier than if you were just a conformist scientist who didn't produce any novel research.) They do ultimately control the purse strings, and if there was some grand conspiracy going on, do you really think that Bush and friends wouldn't be using their influence to end/replace it?

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  11. Not a surprise by Bullfish · · Score: 2, Insightful

    Really, what do you expect exxon et al to say, do... look at the tobacco lobbies and their efforts to discredit studies and such that say cigarettes are not addictive using their own lobby-funded studies. In the rest of the world, and I would say most of the US, global warming is not controversial. Do wing nuts prop up their people to go on camera and say "it ain't happening". Sure, but so did the tobacco people. Most thinking people can see past this type of stuff and not get swept up in the propaganda wars. Unfortunately many do get suckered in by it. They have a lot of cash to throw at ads and lobbying these days due to the price of oil, and they want to keep that cash flowing. Like the addictive tobacco controversy... this one is dying. Expect to see more thrashing from the lobbies as it goes down for the count.

  12. What is wrong in ExxonMobile? by Iloinen+Lohikrme · · Score: 3, Insightful

    I just have wonder what is wrong in Exxon-Mobile. Every other major oil company in the world has admitted that global warming is for real and it's probably caused by man. In example Jorma Ollila who is the chairman of Shell has said it an interview that global warming is real and the only way to tackel it is to reduce carbon emissions. He continued and said that when he came to work in Shell, he was amazed by the concern that Shell employees had about global warming. So the question is what is wrong in Exxon-Mobile? Are their executives so locked into an equation (oil = money) that they have forgotten that it's really (oil = energy = money) and that a company can have other forms of energy sources than just oil?

  13. Re:The Report by HappySqurriel · · Score: 2, Insightful

    Although the anonymous coward choose a foolish group to link to there are lots of intelligent environmentalists who disagree with the current view of "Environmentalism"...

    Dr. Patrick Moore, a founding member of Greenpeace, left Greenpeace in 1986 after he saw Greenpeace became more concerned with anti-capitalism and anti-globalization rather than environmental issues. He had this to say on Global Warming recently "most difficult issue facing the scientific community today in terms of being able to actually predict with any kind of accuracy what's going to happen". While acknowledging that the increase of carbon dioxide in the Earth's atmosphere is caused by human consumption of fossil fuels, he claims that as of 2006 it cannot be fully proven that this is the reason the Earth has been warming since 1980. He stresses that it is scientific evidence, not consensus opinion, that would prove or disprove this relation."

    link

  14. Re:The Report by ArcherB · · Score: 2, Insightful
    What about the scientist who took money to say that global warming IS problem? It seems to me that cash is flowing both ways, but a whole lot more of it is flowing the "alarmists".

    From Here:

    Just how much money do the climate alarmists have at their disposal? There was a $3 billion donation to the global warming cause from Virgin Air's Richard Branson alone. The well-heeled environmental lobbying groups have massive operating budgets compared to groups that express global warming skepticism. The Sierra Club Foundation 2004 budget was $91 million and the Natural Resources Defense Council had a $57 million budget for the same year. Compare that to the often media derided Competitive Enterprise Institute's small $3.6 million annual budget.

    In addition, if a climate skeptic receives any money from industry, the media immediately labels them and attempts to discredit their work. The same media completely ignore the money flow from the environmental lobby to climate alarmists like James Hansen and Michael Oppenheimer. (ie. Hansen received $250,000 from the Heinz Foundation and Oppenheimer is a paid partisan of Environmental Defense Fund)
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  15. Re:The Report by Rei · · Score: 2, Insightful

    I always hate it how whenever Exxon-Mobil does something ridiculous, "oil companies" (collectively) get blamed -- Exxon-Mobil being one of the few dinosaurs left who still denies global warming (and does so quite actively). Meanwhile, companies like Shell and BP fund research into carbon sequestration and are among the world's largest investors in wind and solar (both in commercial production and research). But they're "oil companies", so they get lumped in with Exxon's BS.

    Interestingly enough, I have it on good authority that when Exxon scientists have met with members of NCAR, they privately admit that anthropogenic climate change is quite real.

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  16. Re:The Report by Xabraxas · · Score: 5, Insightful

    And the climate scientists who created this report aren't idealogically motivated?

    That's a hefty charge to be leveling against climatologists without any proof.

    ...scientists who respond to the $10,000 bounty may or may not be motivated

    The point is that you are giving so called scientists a financial motivation for making one conclusion over another. This is nothing like your OSS bounty comparison.

    If ExonMobile itself wants to offer bounties for this research I really don't care.

    I don't either but that is not what ExxonMobil is doing. They are not offering bounties for research, they are offering bounties for specific conclusions.

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    Time makes more converts than reason
  17. Re:The Report by jimstapleton · · Score: 1, Insightful

    Yes, but did the provide it on a "if your results match this, you get money" basis, otherwise you don't?

    Science can be financially motivated, it's hard to keep it from being so, since it's run by people who need to live in a world where you need finance. However the answers should not be financially motivated

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  18. Re:The Report by stephend · · Score: 2, Insightful

    "You can't make somebody understand something if their salary depends upon them not understanding it," Upton Sinclair

  19. Re:bribery schmibery by SEMW · · Score: 3, Insightful

    The difference is whether the money is offered to do pure research into the issue, whatever the result, or whether it is offered on condition that the results further a specific viewpoint.

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  20. How is that different by porkchop_d_clown · · Score: 2, Insightful

    From any other scientist who accepts a grant from a company - or from a government?

    1. Re:How is that different by Daddy_was_a_donkey · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Simply because Exxon offered them money to produce a specific outcome, rather than giving them money to research a hypothesis. BIG difference.

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    2. Re:How is that different by HappySqurriel · · Score: 2, Insightful

      In order to celebrate mathematics in the new millennium, The Clay Mathematics Institute of Cambridge, Massachusetts (CMI) has named seven Prize Problems. The Scientific Advisory Board of CMI selected these problems, focusing on important classic questions that have resisted solution over the years. The Board of Directors of CMI designated a $7 million prize fund for the solution to these problems, with $1 million allocated to each. During the Millennium Meeting held on May 24, 2000 at the Collège de France, Timothy Gowers presented a lecture entitled The Importance of Mathematics, aimed for the general public, while John Tate and Michael Atiyah spoke on the problems. The CMI invited specialists to formulate each problem.

      link

      In a world where some of the best scientific minds can (typically) make more money producing drug which will give you a nice tanned look than solving complicated mathematics problems (or disproving the man-made global warming hypothesis) sometimes you need a greater incentive than "it's the right thing to do".

      The truth is that if you attempt to find evidence that man made global warming isn't happening you're going to end up causing yourself endless problems in academic, political and social circles and many people are not going to try because the cost is to large. Any evidence you find will rapidly be used by groups to disprove global warming, every environmental group will attempt to discredit you, and you will likely be mentioned in countless political debates.

  21. Re:The Report by kestasjk · · Score: 5, Insightful

    If you put out a bounty for an open source project, no one gets upset. Why should this be any different?
    What?!
    You're saying that paying scientists to come to your conclusions, on a subject as important as climate change, is morally on par with paying programmers to write open source code?

    They are paying for any papers that will cast any sort of doubt. This means "clutch at straws to find any possible way to cast uncertainty on this report, and we'll reward you handsomely". This is not moral in any way. This is like MS paying a bounty on an open source project so that it adopts an MS standard; it's abuse of the system for the companies own gain.
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  22. Re:The Report by Doc+Ruby · · Score: 3, Insightful

    Maybe in a perfect simulation of a perfect world. But the history backs up the common sense: oil companies pay for science that serves only their agenda, which is to cover up the true costs of their industry to protect their maximum profits at everyone else's expense.

    Pointing out real bias is not "ad hominem". Corporations are not "hominems". Diluting the obvious interest conflict demonstrated in oil companies buying scientists to write against the IPCC report is work for the oil companies. And pitting the extreme, unaccountable oil companies' self interest against the factual analysis of the IPCC report is pretending to "balance" the facts against propaganda.

    Let's not game the system any more, now that the seriousness of the threat is finally being widely analyzed and reported after generations of lies, coverups and propaganda all serving the oil companies at the expense of everyone else.

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  23. Re:The Report by drinkypoo · · Score: 4, Insightful

    If you put out a bounty for an open source project, no one gets upset. Why should this be any different?

    If you're paying for a project, you're paying for results. If you're paying for a report written a certain way, you're paying for propaganda.

    Put another way, software has hard specifications, while science only has "the truth" (or a working model, anyway.) If you are specifically offering money for someone to produce a report that supports your view, that is not science.

    If the scientist trades his/her credibility to create a fraudalent attack on the climate report that's unethical, but the fault of the scientist - not the bounty.

    If a bribe is given to a policeman, both he and the person offering the bribe are committing a crime. It's a recognition of the fact that it takes two to tango, as it were. This situation is directly analogous.

    If ExonMobile itself wants to offer bounties for this research I really don't care. Let the scientists try to do the research. They will either come up with a valid criticis, or they won't.

    If the bounty was for someone who could prove (ha!) whether global warming was caused by human sources, then I would agree with you. But what they are looking for isn't the truth; in fact we know beyond any real doubt that humans have an effect on global weather. There can frankly be no question about this. The only thing there is question about now is the extent of that influence. So this reward constitutes a bribe, nothing more, intended to cause the expression of falsehoods. Well, it does constitute one other thing - an attempt to confuse the public, to keep them in disarray so they don't unite against the oil companies.

    --
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  24. Re:The Report by Touvan · · Score: 5, Insightful

    If the scientist trades his/her credibility to create a fraudalent attack on the climate report that's unethical, but the fault of the scientist - not the bounty.

    You complain about ideological motivation, yet you yourself have fallen victim to it. Your ideal says that scientists should not be subject to the reality of human nature, greed being part of that nature, and that those who take advantage of it should not be held accountable for their part.

    That is absurd. If someone wants to kill a man, and hires a hitman to do it, you can bet he is going to jail for conspiracy to commit murder (well if he's caught anyway).

    I'm not saying that bribing a scientist is the same as murder. I am saying that paying someone to misrepresent the truth doesn't let you off the hook, just because the payee was willing to do it.

  25. Re:The Report by Maxo-Texas · · Score: 1, Insightful

    While I agree with your point, there is a lot of pressure on scientists to conform with the "Global warming is caused by humans" meme. If you do not agree, you are likely to be cut off from good positions and grants.

    Personally, given observed warming on mars, jupiter and pluto and numerous ice ages and hot ages in earth's history, I think we are presuming a bit much about human impact.

    This bit by exxon does stink a bit. This global warming stuff is "soft" enough that it can be manipulated by how you ask the questions. If it was hard science, it wouldn't matter who did the research.

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    She was like chocolate when she drank... semi-sweet at first and then increasingly bitter.
  26. Re:The Report by 99BottlesOfBeerInMyF · · Score: 5, Insightful

    And the climate scientists who created this report aren't idealogically motivated? I'm sure some are. Some probably aren't. And scientists who respond to the $10,000 bounty may or may not be motivated. Frankly, I don't care about motivations. If you put out a bounty for an open source project, no one gets upset. Why should this be any different?

    The scientific method relies upon hypothesis and testing, then publishing and interpreting the results of that testing and it is reviewed by peers. If you are only paid when the results of your testing indicate a particular item, which may or may not be true, you have direct motivation to break the scientific process. Your analogy involving open source bounties is different. Say someone offers a bounty to find security holes in product X. That is paying people to do research and find some hole, and there are always going to be holes. It is not paying them to prove a specific hole exists (result), which would be undermining the scientific method. In the case of global warming, you're starting with an answer "global warming is not man made" (result) and trying to find a reason. Sure there are lots of potential reasons why this might be the case, but none of them are science because you did not follow the scientific method. They are also a lot likely to be correct answers for the same reason. With a bounty on security holes in some project you're looking to find something, but not provide evidence for whether holes exist or not, simply to find any that you can. Whether or not a given hole exists and is exploitable can still be a scientific process.

    Let the scientists try to do the research.

    Part of the failing of the US education system is that people refer to researchers or engineers or technologists as scientists, when in truth a scientist is someone who uses the scientific method. The reason for this misapplication is because science comes up with lots of useful solutions and thus has a lot of credibility. The fact is, tis lobbying group is not offering to pay scientists, because the offer precludes people acting in that role form participating.

  27. Re:How is this any different? by erroneus · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Dude! Ice that has existed for thousands of years is disappearing now. Arctic and antarctic species are in danger of extinction. Land masses that have been covered with ice since before the dawn of man are now available for farming! There's some real obvious signs of things that are just not right. Forget about the other obvious things like acid rain killing the fish... we somehow addressed that concern did we?

    This isn't guilt for existance, it's guilt for being sloppy assholes who care little about the world we live in. There are ways to live and be clean about it. It's possibly "expensive" or otherwise a departure from what we are accustomed. So what?

    I feel guilty. I can't afford to live in ways that are cleaner or I most certainly would. I can't do any of those nifty money-saving things like power from the sun or wind and earning money back from "the grid" because I live in an apartment. I cannot afford to buy a new, more efficient, car let alone a hybrid or electric. I can only WISH the people who make their money selling stuff to the world's population would care enough to take a hit from retooling and selling us stuff that's better for the world.

    The alternatives are there. They just don't want to do it.

  28. Do you honestly not know? by benhocking · · Score: 5, Insightful

    How is that different
    From any other scientist who accepts a grant from a company - or from a government?

    Well, many companies will control what can be published from the research they pay for, but when it comes to the government, that is not the case at all. They give you money to do research in a particular area. They do not give you money to reach particular conclusions. If they knew the conclusions you were going to reach, they wouldn't be funding you. Now do you see the difference?

    --
    Ben Hocking
    Need a professional organizer?
  29. Re:The Report by Erioll · · Score: 2, Insightful

    Instead, we see Exxon offering money for the predetermined outcome of 'scientific' research. And from the article (you DID read it right?): (emphasis mine below)

    The letters were sent by Kenneth Green, a visiting scholar at AEI, who confirmed that the organisation had approached scientists, economists and policy analysts to write articles for an independent review that would highlight the strengths and weaknesses of the IPCC report.

    "Right now, the whole debate is polarised," he said. "One group says that anyone with any doubts whatsoever are deniers and the other group is saying that anyone who wants to take action is alarmist. We don't think that approach has a lot of utility for intelligent policy." Definitely sounds like "Exxon offering money for the predetermined outcome" to me. Oh wait, they want the strengths and weaknesses.

    But it's all academic (pun intended) anyways. If you question any aspect of any of it, your credentials are pulled. What a great atmosphere to foster discussion and research in.
  30. Re:As opposed to... by mungtor · · Score: 2, Insightful

    I don't think that anybody is implying that scientists are choosing a position based on celebrity or _personal_ wealth. But let's face reality here. They aren't going to risk being ostracized from the community by disagreeing with the MAN-MADE global warming hysteria. Being a scientific skeptic of MAN-MADE global warming effectively excommunicates them.

    Yes, it's getting warmer. Is it natural or man-made? What will the overall effects be and how will we adapt? Those are the questions that nobody has any real answers to. I can't believe that climatologists have anything other than the foggiest idea of what will happen. Some ice will melt, some places will get drier, some will get wetter. These are the same people who predicted that the 2006 hurricane season would be the worst ever. The hard fact here is that no matter what the temperature is doing, people are afraid of change. Something different? Must be bad!

    This is nothing more than fear mongering and taking advantage of fact that most people can't think of anything that encompasses a time-scale larger than a generation. If we were in the middle of the last ice age, I'm sure the same people would be telling us that we'd all drown or burn to a crisp.

  31. Re:The Report by 99BottlesOfBeerInMyF · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Whether the money is tied to the result implicitly o explicitly doesn't really matter.

    It matters if the result is tied to money at all. Any research that starts with a conclusion which it tries to find proof for is not following the scientific method and is not science. If some government grant was worded such that is is contingent upon proving some conclusion, that is not science either. To my knowledge this is the only case where funding was offered for research starting with a result. I've seen other cases where companies paid for research, but reserved the right to publish the results or not, and then buried science that disagreed with their predetermined opinion, but I don't know of any other attempt to so openly buy an unscientific study and pass it off as science.

  32. Um... by argStyopa · · Score: 2, Insightful

    According to Greenpeace's 2006 Annual report, they spent 4.3 milliion Euros on their 'climate' campaign.

    This is pure advocacy advertising money, by the way, unlike Exxon which actually has to sell a product.

    How is it that (Company A) offering $10,000 for proof of one side of an issue is irredeemable evilness, but (Advocacy Group) spending $5.6 million is a justified righteous crusade?

    --
    -Styopa
  33. Re:The Report by ranton · · Score: 2, Insightful

    Who's offering the $10,000 for the report proving global warming is our fault?

    There are billions of dollars being spent on studies to show that global warming is our fault. http://www.marshall.org/pdf/materials/289.pdf While the study does conclude that "Additional work is needed to explore the individual relationships between individual funders and particular recipients", it does say that "A cursory glimpse of the list of recipients of those private funds reveals that the vast majority are spent by groups favoring restrictions on carbon dioxide emissions"

    While that does not mean that all of these studies showing the effects of global warming are false, it does show that they are just as financially motivated. Only about $50 million is spent each year by private foundations for research by universities and non-profits, but those funds are quite important to the bottom lines of those universities.

    When you are paid by a company called "Green Earth" (fictional company I think) to research global warming, you can be pretty sure that they will stop that funding if you keep saying that global warming is not a problem and we should start drilling for oil in Alaska.

    But it sure the hell does mean they're financially motivated. Here's what should happen: Exxon should hire scientists to research this. If the report comes up against global warming, the scientists get $10,000 grand and stay employed. If the report comes up proving global warming is our fault, the scientists get $10,000 and stay employed.

    There is nothing wrong with funding a study with a particular purpose in mind. The problem only comes when they falsify data to prove something that is false. Very little research would be done in this country if no one was allowed to have an agenda.

    That is why all studies need to be peer reviewed. Almost anyone doing research on anything has an agenda, and it usually is money. If I am trying to invent a more efficient solar cell, I have an agenda to sell those solar cells for money. But first I need to prove that it works to other scientists (or more specifically to investors).

    ExxonMobil is not doing anything wrong by offerring $10,000 for research. They will be doing something wrong if they find someone willing to fabricate information. I have no love for Exxon, and I am pretty sure they would do that if needed. That would be news worthy, but this story is not. It is just FUD from the global warming crowd.

    --

    --
    -- All that is necessary for the triumph of evil is that good men do nothing. -- Edmund Burke
  34. Re:The Report by ktappe · · Score: 2, Insightful

    it's perfectly OK for Universities to fire those that don't hold up the group think and for Virgin Air's Richard Branson to give a $3 billion donation to the global warming cause. The Sierra Club Foundation 2004 budget was $91 million and the Natural Resources Defense Council had a $57 million budget for the same year. Compare that to the often media derided Competitive Enterprise Institute's small $3.6 million annual budget.
    And none of that has anything whatsoever to do with the fact that ExxonMobil is paying for specific conclusions. That is a simple fact that you are either unwilling or unable to accept: That a "scientist" who answers ExxonMobil's offer only gets paid if they provide the answer that is in ExxonMobil's financial best interest. That is not science, that is mercenaryism, and the sooner you stop trying to defend it the less silly you (and ExxonMobil) will seem.
    --
    "We can categorically state we have not released man-eating badgers into the area." - UK military spokesman, July 2007
  35. Re:As opposed to... by BricksAndMore · · Score: 2, Insightful

    I don't understand the emphasis on MAN-MADE as a reason to not take action. Even if global warming is not a MAN-MADE cause (which personally I find unlikely), is it something everybody wants to risk? Clearly pumping tons of carbon into the atmosphere is not good. We are smart enough to figure out better and cleaner ways to produce mass energy. Why don't we just clean up now regardless of the cause for the sake of the environment? In 50 - 100 years, it's going to be too late to be decide, "oh wow, it really was MAN-MADE, better start taking action now!".

    The whole debate seems pointless to me, but I very well could be missing something.

  36. Re:The Report by ajs · · Score: 1, Insightful

    Exxon wants something built (fake science in regards to climate change) You are saying, then, taht Exxon has stated that they will refuse to pay if the fingings are correct and well documented? That is, they do not care about the content of the findings alone, but the fact that they must be fake?

    When RSA puts up a bounty for breaking crypto, they do so because that answer is vitally important, not because they want to be wrong. Exxon is doing roughly the same. They are putting up a bounty on this work because it vital to their business interests that this data be correct. If there's any way to assail climate theory that suggests that warming is anthropogenic, then they want that to be found, and those who established the opposing theories should be thrilled to have such an effort undertaken. Recall that this is not football (of the world or U.S variety). Nor is it a debate. This is the scientific method at work, and the more highly skilled people are highly motivated to produce valuable research the better. What bothers me is the tendency to ignore the science and focus on sources of funding; "desirability" of results, etc.
  37. Re:The Report by 'nother+poster · · Score: 3, Insightful

    Here's the thing. If the people submitting to Exxon/Mobil are submitting made up bullshit then it shouldn't withstand review and become a laughingstock. If nothing else, that should help to strengthen the human derived global warming stance.

    From where I stand though, it looks like both sides are playing fast and loose with the science to date. I guess I'll go read the new report and see if it says anything new.

  38. Re:The Report by mwlewis · · Score: 2, Insightful

    ...then present the methodology and results of that testing along with analysis for peer review...

    ...analyze the results openly with input from peers...

    You haven't shown how TFA is any different than the peer review that was done (or should have been done) by the IPCC. Should the publishers of any study be able to define who the reviewers will be? That seems wrong. Or are you saying that all peer reviewers need to come up with alternative hypotheses and go out and do their own testing before they can be said to have reviewed anything?

    TFA says that they're looking for someone to review the paper, and to comment on its strengths and weaknesses. They're not asking for results that contradict it (although one might reasonably assume that such results could be used as support for weaknesses of the study).

    --
    JOIN US FOR PONG!
  39. Re:The Report by xappax · · Score: 5, Insightful

    Exxon-Mobil is not offering a bounty to anyone who can disprove human-caused global warming.

    Certain scientists were approached privately and offered an exchange: They write a paper disagreeing with the UN climate study, and Exxon will pay them $10,000. The scientists were not asked to prove or disprove anything, simply to express a certain opinion.

    Basically, Exxon doesn't know or care if the scientist is correct, or has scientifically proven that humans didn't cause global warming - that's not a requirement for payment. All that's required is that the scientist express the opinion that Exxon-Mobil wants.

    Therefore, the entire issue has very little to do with science or the scientific method, because that's not what's going on here. If Exxon were offering funding to researchers who were testing and repeating existing climate change experiments and findings, it would be a little sketchy but we would have to respect their findings and deal with them through further research and peer review. However what Exxon is doing has nothing to do with new research or even testing existing findings, it is simply an attempt to get someone credible to express Exxon's opinion.

  40. Re:The Report by Ambitwistor · · Score: 4, Insightful

    The vast bulk of the "Climate Change Science" has been funded by left leaning foundations and think tanks. Like the National Science Foundation? I think you are rather confused as to where the climatology community gets its funding.

    The climate has not been studied long enough or with enough precision to predict with much confidence what is going to happen in the medium to long term. That depends on what you mean by "medium" and "long". The climate can be predicted with rough accuracy out to a century or so. A lot of the uncertainty is actually about what humans will do in response to global warming.

    The Little Ice Age and the Midieval Warm Period are good examples of times when making predictions based on a couple of hundred years worth of data would produce conclusions unsupported by what we know happened thereafter Predictions are not based on just extrapolating a past trend, you know. They also involve modeling the physical processes involved in climate. You can't just point to some part of a time series where there was a variation from the normal and claim it is inherently unpredictable. On the basis of time series analysis alone, it would be. On the basis of physics, it's a different matter.

    consensus of thought by people making predictions based on inadequate data in complex systems they don't understand will yield policy decisions that will seem laughable in the fullness of time. That may be true, it may be not, but policy has to be driven by one's best judgement at the time, not hindsight. "Doing nothing" is also a policy choice with potential consequences; it is not logically the default decision one should make in the absence of perfect certainty.
  41. Re:The Report by c6gunner · · Score: 2, Insightful

    Well, imagine that you're a scientist being paid by the Sierra club to do global warming research, and you turn around and say to them "well, sorry guys, but it turns out all this global warming is actually just a product of increased solar activity". Or you're a scientist hired by greenpeace to research the dangers of nuclear reactors, and you turn around and tell them "gee guys, it looks like Nuclear power is actually the most viable and least polluting source of energy we have!". What do you think will happen?

    Regardless of the fact that they never told you what conclusion they wanted, it seems likely that, were you to reach these conclusions, you would not be in their employ for very much longer. In fact it seems quite likely that your research would be quietly buried, and your funding revoked due to "budgetary constraints". So the end result is the same. If you work for an organizations which has a vested interest in reaching a specific conclusion, then you have a monetary incentive to reach the conclusions that they want. Period.

  42. Re:The Report by Cerebus · · Score: 3, Insightful

    "There are billions of dollars being spent on studies to show that global warming is our fault."

    No, there is money being spent on studies to find out *if* and *why* the climate is changing. This is not the same as paying someone for a *specific result*.

    --
    -- Cerebus
  43. Re:The Report by InsertCleverUsername · · Score: 2, Insightful

    > Here's the thing. If the people submitting to Exxon/Mobil are submitting made
    > up bullshit then it shouldn't withstand review and become a laughingstock.

    This has already happened, but scientists are typically less confrontational or maybe just less socially cruel than most of us. I don't think they laugh so much as they simply ignore obvious shills.

    > If nothing else, that should help to strengthen the human derived global warming stance.

    Peer-reviewed research has already been on the job for years. Today's IPCC paper ups the ante to 90% certainty. That sounds strong enough to start demanding more from our politicians.

    > From where I stand though, it looks like both sides are playing fast and loose with
    > the science to date. I guess I'll go read the new report and see if it says anything new.

    I don't know what you've been reading, but from my POV the battle has been scientists vs. corporate power for many years now. To the extent statistics have been abused, I believe they've been twisted and cherry-picked almost exclusively by those bent on disproving global warming. I'm sure we could find examples of kooks on the left stating worst-case scenarios as fact, but the other side has been flatly denying data and the opinion of respected authorities in climatology.

    --
    Ask me about my sig!
  44. I'll tell you WHO is funding the GW Proponents. by gd23ka · · Score: 2, Insightful

    And just who is funding the global warming proponents? I ask this question regularily
    when one of these GW articles pop up on Slashdot and I invite everybody and all to do the
    research and to find out.

    The scientists who propose global warming theories out there are for the
    most part likely to be sincere in their findings - but they are also the most
    likely to be funded by the UN "Agenda 21" crowd through their network of Sustainable
    Development cronies .. .. while other scientists whose opposing theories hold just as valid are ignored
    at best, more often ridiculed and jeered by the publicity that same funding money
    also buys. A less __selective__ reporting would not just unearth one single case of the
    undesired sides shortcomings but in all fairness report on the funding that is
    going to both sides, both the official as well as the underhanded. (As an exception
    the official funding is far more interesting in this case).

    Sustainable Development is going to be the pivot element of the UN global governance
    that has come knocking and a lot of effort is being invested into it to make the
    sustainable development - global warming paradigm package stick no matter what the opposition
    to the scientifism it is based on.

    Here are a couple of things people might want to check out who want to learn more
    about this...

    Here are a couple of points to google for "Sustainable Development" "Property rights"
    "Agenda 21" "Joan Peros" (also try this on http://video.google.com/

  45. Re:What's good for the goose... by 1u3hr · · Score: 2, Insightful
    media completely ignore the money flow from the environmental lobby to climate alarmists

    Senator Inhofe, who posted the extremely partisan page you linked, keeps saying that.

    He's got a lot of great stuff, like "The well-heeled environmental lobbying groups have massive operating budgets compared to groups that express global warming skepticism."

    Right. Well heeled-green groups have more money to spend on lobbying than the FUCKING OIL INDUSTRY.

    Excuse my capitals, but that's hilarious.

  46. Re:The Report by jvkjvk · · Score: 2, Insightful

    ExxonMobil is not doing anything wrong by offerring $10,000 for research. They will be doing something wrong if they find someone willing to fabricate information. I have no love for Exxon, and I am pretty sure they would do that if needed. That would be news worthy, but this story is not. It is just FUD from the global warming crowd. You might be right if Exxon was actually offering $10,000 in research grants that funded science research... but they're not. They are offerring $10,000 for people to write papers giving opinions on why it might not be our fault . They are paying for the Authority of Science rather that Scientific results. They are paying for ammunition to be used in political battles that affect their bottom line, not to fund any type of actual research.

    I'll believe otherwise when one of these "scientists" comes up with a working simulation that supports their pet cause(s) of global warming where 'turning the dials' of our interactions (C02 contributions, etc.) creates negligible effects.

    Even without fabricating information, it is easy enough to say that x, y or z "might" be causing global warming, or give your opinion that "we" aren't causing it. There's no science involved. It is not FUD to state that this appears to be just another attempt at the continuation of existing policies - repeat lies often enough and people will believe them, or at least delay action so you can continue showing increasing Quarter-on-Quarter earnings.

    So yes, ExxonMobile is doing something wrong with this effort.
  47. Galileo all over again by AnalogDiehard · · Score: 2, Insightful

    Galileo's many discoveries, especially the universe revolved around the sun and not the earth, put him at odds with the papacy and many universities. He was pressured into silence for almost two decades. Towards the end of his life he faced the Inquisition, was compelled to abjure, and spent his life imprisonment under house arrest.

    --
    Eternity: will that be smoking, or non-smoking? I Corinthians 6:9-10
  48. Cash to left wing orgs are "grants" but by Jerry · · Score: 2, Insightful

    cash to right wing orgs are bribes?

    It's ok for government agencies to fund reseach limited to proving global warming, but not for disproving it.

    Nice double standard.

    --

    Running with Linux for over 20 years!

  49. There's a logic problem here by phunctor · · Score: 2, Insightful

    "Predictions are not based on just extrapolating a past trend, you know. They also involve modeling the physical processes involved in climate. You can't just point to some part of a time series where there was a variation from the normal and claim it is inherently unpredictable. On the basis of time series analysis alone, it would be. On the basis of physics, it's a different matter."

    OK, do a physics experiment to prove the significance of anthropogenic global warming. Oh. You can't do that? You have a simulation instead? And why should I believe your simulation? What if it doesn't model all the physical processes involved? What if it models them incorrectly? How can you possibly validate it? I know! Let's feed it with some past conditions and see if it can predict what we already know happened next! Oh... it gets that wrong? But this time, just coincidentally with a Kyoto treaty that targets the developed world and exempts the undeveloped world, it works. It's got physics. So, although it fails to retrodict the past, I should surrender to Chinese and Indian economic hegemony immediately anyway instead of waiting for them to overtake us normally... It's got physics.

    That's OK, I've got a devil-mask here that keeps me safe from witches. I understand. If only more people did.

    --
    phunctor backs away slowly

  50. Re:$10K? Don't make me laugh... by Talla · · Score: 2, Insightful

    $10K is a pretty damn paltry bribe. $100K research grants are pretty common for those in the sciences, with $1M+ programs not unheard of. As for personal salary, a PhD college professor in the sciences is easily at $100k+/year when you include summer salary.

    But then they normally have to do some research. Here they only have to sit down an evening to write an essay.