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Vista Taking a Nibble Out of Apple in OS Wars?

PetManimal writes "Despite all of the positive buzz about the Mac operating system and the 'halo effect' of iPod sales, Mac OS X market share actually dropped last month, reports Computerworld: 'The share of PowerPC-based Macs fell ... from 4.29% in February to 3.94% in March. That dip was not fully offset by an increase in Intel-based Mac hardware, leading to a overall net decline in Mac share of 0.3%, to 6.08% in March.' Meanwhile, Vista is rising, the article says, with just over 2% of computers connected to the Internet using the new Windows OS. The figures are from a company called Net Applications, which collects its data from the browsers of visitors to its network of 40,000+ Web sites."

35 of 406 comments (clear)

  1. pfft by djupedal · · Score: 5, Insightful

    One word - 'LEOPARD'

    If there is a down blip, it's due to people waiting for Leopard, not because of vista, and ho boy...wait 'till you see her hit the track :)

    1. Re:pfft by Overly+Critical+Guy · · Score: 5, Insightful

      Not to mention the unreliability of relying on web browser stats to determine OS market share. How about we go by, I don't know, actual sales figures to determine market share? Call me crazy.

      --
      "Sufferin' succotash."
    2. Re:pfft by BKX · · Score: 4, Insightful

      You're forgetting that the total number of computers is rising. If Apple sales were to stagnate, their overall market share (as a percentage) would drop even if no Apple users switched to something else. Under the GP's analysis, we would expect that the market share (again, as a percentage) would drop while people wait for Leopard.

    3. Re:pfft by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Insightful

      The stats come from website logs, which is basically snake oil as far as accurate numbers goes. The decline could be something as simple as Apple developers tweaking Safari's caching parameters. Since Intel Macs already have the latest version of Safari, if the latest version is more efficient at caching resources, that means that HTTP traffic from PPC Safari users will slowly decline as they upgrade to the latest version of Safari, while Intel users are already at that level.

      Or it could be something completely different - HTTP traffic analysis is useless for determining browser/os market share and the littlest thing can skew the numbers wildly.

    4. Re:pfft by HairyCanary · · Score: 5, Insightful

      Sales figures don't tell you the whole story either, so keep looking. If Mac users keep their machines for five years on average, versus say two and a half years average for Windows PC users, then Macs could have half the sales rate of PC's and still be staying even with market share. What you want to reliably assess is installed base.

    5. Re:pfft by Aqua+OS+X · · Score: 4, Informative

      Dude, you need to take a statistics class or something. We're dealing with market percentages, not licenses sold. If I have a cup that has 50 green M&Ms and 50 red M&Ms, and I add 10 green M&Ms and 5 red M&Ms, green M&Ms are now less then 50%, but that doesn't mean I lost green M&Ms.

      You need to account for licenses sold in relationship to market growth, transitions to new OS, and consumers who have postponed purchases while waiting for new operating systems.

      That said, PPC OS X usage dropped, Intel OS X usage increased, people are timing hardware purchases to coincide with Leopard's release, and people are cashing-in on their wait for Vista. These are factors that may reduce the PPC Mac OS percentage for March, but that is not the same thing as a reduced install base, nor is it a sign that the growth of Apple's install base is entering an extended stagnation.

      --
      "Things are more moderner than before- bigger, and yet smaller- it's computers-- San Dimas High School football RULES!"
    6. Re:pfft by syphax · · Score: 5, Insightful


      The criticism about sales vs. avg. machine lifetime is valid.

      In the auto industry we look at UIOs- "units in operation" - that is available via state vehicle registration records. On the whole, the data is pretty good.

      Of course, we don't need to register our computers (yet), so we don't have that option.

      Assuming the data isn't crap, I noticed that Apple has been gaining market share at an average of 0.34% a month since last September, until the 0.3% dip this past month. They went from 4.3% to 6.4% pretty quick, and it's notable b/c that's switching vendors (unlike Vista, which is mostly same vendor, different product). What will be interesting is the next couple of months- was this just a blip? What happens when Leopard comes out?

      I'd put my money on 'blip'. I hereby forecast continued growth for Apple, though maybe averaging 0.1-0.2% per month unless they come out with some kickass hardware soon.

      And no, I'm not a fanboy.

      --
      Simple Unexpected Concrete Credible Emotional Stories
    7. Re:pfft by syphax · · Score: 4, Interesting


      This chart on browser trend is interesting too. IE's market share is slipping like the Big-3 autos. Slow and steady.

      I can't wait until IE dips under 50%. That should drive off the last of the 'IE only' websites, which seem to be decreasing in number (of course, I support one at work, though for a limited corporate audience- gack! I am lobbying heavily with the vendor to support Firefox!!).

      But I hope Firefox doesn't get too dominant (fortunately, it won't). Competition and the adherence to open standards (at least for more mature technologies) are good things.

      --
      Simple Unexpected Concrete Credible Emotional Stories
    8. Re:pfft by beckerist · · Score: 4, Interesting

      Meanwhile, Vista is rising, the article says, with just over 2% of computers connected to the Internet using the new Windows OS.
      I wonder how many of these are just virtual images... Realistically it's probably a negligible number, but of the more than 20 people in my department here at work that I just polled, 1 of them uses Vista as their production environment, and 8 of them said they've dabbled with it in a virtual image. Granted I work in the tech industry so my percentages are probably a bit skewed...

    9. Re:pfft by diamondsw · · Score: 5, Insightful

      And you really should be comparing market segments. After all, every Windows-based cash register, eTicket terminal, etc counts towards its market share. I'd rather see market share in segments - home, education, enterprise, utility, etc.

      --
      I don't know what kind of crack I was on, but I suspect it was decaf.
  2. Dualboot? by norminator · · Score: 4, Informative

    I guess Boot Camp has just barely started supporting Vista, but how much of this could be due to dual-booting OSX and Vista on the same machine? Or from people that beta tested Vista? I tried out the beta, then installed a release copy of Vista on my work laptop, but then I switched back after a couple of months.

  3. 2%? by Stormx2 · · Score: 5, Funny

    This strikes me as low for a brand new windows OS. I'm not familiar with previous statistics, but I would have thought that sales would increase quickly after the release then slowly decrease. If it is at 2% now, I don't expect we'll get much more after this.

    $20 says Microsoft will simply disable XP machines to boost sales.

  4. Must be tired by normuser · · Score: 4, Funny

    Vista TAKING a NIPPLE OUT of Apple in OS Wars?

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    09 F9 11 02 9D 74 E3 5B D8 41 56 C5 63 56 88 C0
    XXX#######
  5. Sorry, that was just me. by varmint+jerky · · Score: 5, Funny

    I powered my Mac off yesterday and forgot to turn it back on. Try it again now...

  6. over 2 percent?!! by Sneakernets · · Score: 5, Funny

    *throws hands up in the air*

    Ok, Microsoft, you win.

    --
    "No freeman shall ever be debarred the use of arms." -- Thomas Jefferson
  7. In other news.... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Funny

    My new operating system had 100% growth as I sold my 2nd copy and it still had far fewer reported bugs than either OSx or Vista....Only 2 users reported blank CDs but thats just a distribution problem...

    =)

  8. New Hardware by Snap+E+Tom · · Score: 4, Interesting

    Maybe it's because a lot of people knew that the iMac, mini, and Mac Pros were due for a refresh.

  9. Which websites? by smooth+wombat · · Score: 5, Funny

    What websites do they monitor so I can fire up my Windows 95 machine and make an entrance?

    --
    We will bankrupt ourselves in the vain search for absolute security. -- Dwight D. Eisenhower
  10. Not a shocker by SengirV · · Score: 4, Informative

    The macs haven't been rev'd in quite a while. I had hoped that revs would occur more frequently with the switch to intel, but it's simply not the case. And sorry, I don't count an additional option for 8-core on the Mac Pro a rev as much as it's another BTO option. Especially when they didn't change anything else on the machine.

    http://buyersguide.macrumors.com/

    mini is still at CD, not C2D. iMacs haven't been updated in over 200 days. macbook and MBP in 150. Compare that with the ONLY way to upgrade on the PC side - buy a new machine, and you begin to see the appeal of Vista over OS X when it comes to hardware sales. Finally, Tiger is on it's way out as well. So people are holding off on new Macs until they come pre-installed with leopard.

    Would like to see the figures once leopard comes out ;)

    --

    Prof. Farnsworth - "Oh a lesson in not changing history from Mr I'm-My-Own-Grandpa!"

  11. Here I come by Spackler · · Score: 5, Funny

    ' Meanwhile, Vista is rising, the article says, with just over 2% of computers connected to the Internet using the new Windows OS

    They won't be connected for long:
    net start BOTNET

  12. Very misleading by apachetoolbox · · Score: 4, Insightful

    The tone of this article is very misleading.

    I do a lot of consulting work and it's very hard to get a new PC for someone that doesn't come with Vista. They don't want Vista but they have no choice. Then we get to deal with figuring out what software they need works and what needs patches and what just plain doesn't work and never will.

  13. 0.3% well within margin of error.... by topham · · Score: 4, Insightful

    The actual decline they have reported is 0.3%; which I'm sure is well within there margin of error.

    Which means, Apple's share hasn't changed. Despite the fact there are less PowerPC machines than before.

  14. Re:2%? Seems high. by stratjakt · · Score: 5, Insightful

    One corporate copy could easily account for thousands of machines.

    --
    I don't need no instructions to know how to rock!!!!
  15. Oh please by MBCook · · Score: 5, Insightful

    Can we get real? Apple's market share dropped for one month? Let's see what could cause that:

    1. People waiting for Leopard
    2. People waiting for CS 3 to come out (this was February after all)
    3. Vista's sales jump (in both hardware and software) from heavy promotion and tons of news coverage

    There. That took about 3 seconds to think up. When Vista has displaced Apple for 3 months in a row, we can talk. Until then this is stupid hype designed to make Vista look like it isn't a dog sales wise (when from MS you would think it would have started selling like Windows 95 did). Plus, this is the PowerPC share that dropped. They are old and slow as hell (I'm using one). Now that CS3 is out (and was about to come out by the time they did this survey) you'd be an IDIOT to buy one. So the Intel side didn't jump up. People are probably waiting for CS3 (to put their requisitions in at work), or for Leopard (coming any time now, June 21st at the latest).

    Non-story.

    --
    Comment forecast: Bits of genius surrounded by a sea of mediocrity.
  16. But, what does RoughlyDrafted say?! by mattgreen · · Score: 4, Funny

    Give the guys at Roughly Drafted a week or two to point out all the reasons this sort of assessment is downright wrong, while decorating the article with all sorts of nice pie charts, graphs, and equally questionable statistics. Then we will know what really happened. Because the mainstream media certainly has an anti-Apple agenda, we can't trust just ANY statistics.

  17. Are mac sales lower than their market share? by Jason1729 · · Score: 4, Interesting

    I use both Macs and PCs and it seems like I buy and upgrade PCs a lot more often. My latest Mac is a Powerbook G4 from early 2004 and I'm just now starting to think about a replacement. Over those last 3 years I've bought 2 PCs and will probably buy a 3rd long before I replace the Mac. The PC's just feel dated after less than a year while the Macs take about 3 years to feel the same way. At least to me.

    If PCs have a much shorter useful life, their percentage of sales will be higher than their actual percentage of machines in use.

  18. Statistics 101 by Nasarius · · Score: 5, Insightful

    A drop in overall percentage doesn't necessarily mean a drop in users. It could easily mean that Windows is growing, and the Mac market is stagnating before a new release.

    --
    LOAD "SIG",8,1
  19. Bogus data by geekwithsoul · · Score: 5, Insightful

    FTA:

    "Net Applications collects its data from the browsers of visitors to its network of more than 40,000 Web sites."

    Any statistics that purport to show "usage" based on browser hits is inherently suspect, especially if the stats are used to imply they have some larger meaning. If they can answer these questions, I'll believe them:

    - How are the servers of these "40,000 webs sites" identifying unique users? (server logs, scripts, or both? How long are the sessions they are looking at?)
    - Are they looking at number of hits, unique user views, or what?
    - How well can they ensure that machines are not being counted multiple times?
    - Which sites are included? Are both microsoft.com and apple.com sites included? What about msn.com or mac.com? How many tech-savy sites are included and how many might-as-well-be-AOL newbie sites?
    - Are the results from some sites weighted above or below other sites?

    I'm not saying they haven't taken all these things into account, but publishing them (or referencing them by a third-party) without including how the data was gathered makes this all just so much noise.

  20. Re:OMFG are you people serious? by geekoid · · Score: 4, Funny

    Do you remember when you were a kid?
    Remember the first time you ordered something in the mail? All you did was think about how cool the thing was going to be.
    Now, do you remember the let down when you got the item and it was crap?

    It's like that, every single day.

    --
    The Kruger Dunning explains most post on /. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning%E2%80%93Kruger_effect
  21. Yep... by pb · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Even if we do assume that their figures are incredibly accurate, this is how it shakes out:

    Windows: +0.20
    Linux: +0.15
    Mac: -0.30


    Not a huge deal, although I think the Linux uptick is a bit of an unreported story here. Also, what's with the share of Windows NT growing from 0.71% to 0.80% (the only other MicroSoft OS showing growth)? That's like a 12.7% increase for an ancient OS! So, yeah, given that anomaly, I'm somewhat disinclined to give their figures that much weight.

    --
    pb Reply or e-mail; don't vaguely moderate.
  22. Re:Could be the hardware..... by zentec · · Score: 4, Interesting

    Microsoft not having proprietary hardware lock-in is exactly my point; the need to cater to every conceivable chuck of hardware along with permitting copious permission between drivers and the kernel is not an advantage.  It's a major contributor to instability and only when it was no longer advantageous to gaining marketshare did Microsoft make any overtures to changing that.

    The attraction of OS X is that you have it before you, on a piece of hardware on which you know it will run.  You don't have a situation where Microsoft points to the OEM, the OEM points to some Taiwanese chip maker's web site for an "updated" driver, unsigned by Microsoft to fix what should have been working the second you pulled the computer from the box.

    God bless Linux, but I have to tell you, it has its moments.  Is it superior to Microsoft?  You bet your sweet bippy.  Am I going to run it on my primary notebook machine?  I have.  Why don't I now?  Because I deal with computers and electronics all day and the last thing I want to do when I'm on my own time is maintain a computer in typical PC fashion.

    Or, to put it another way; having the hardware and OS lock-in was an attraction to me because I was pretty certain that I wouldn't have to endure the torture of Microsoft in the workplace.  And I was right.

  23. Apple has to offer a decent mid tower. by guidryp · · Score: 4, Insightful

    I never contend that apple has to sell OSX for any old box, as that would be business mistake for them, but if they aren't going to sell OSX, then they need to offer more hardware choices.

    Mac market share is stable at about the 6% mark. These are the people who like integrated monitors or the toy mini. Pro just won't matter for market share as it is ultra high end.

    If Apple actually has the slightest interest in increasing market share beyond the current they have to offer what mainstream buyers want and are used to. A decent mid size tower at an affordable price.

    I actually want to buy a Mac. I use Linux/Solar/Windows at work and would like a decent Unix workstation at home, but don't find Linux polished enough (my desktop at work runs Redhat).

    What is stopping me is the lack of decent midrange hardware without integrated monitor. This gap has to be obvious to Apple execs, perhaps they are moving the company in the direction of devices and away from computer and don't care about computer market share.

    I will buy a new computer in the next 6 months. No midrange tower or equivalent and it will be another PC and that will be my computer for the next 4 or 5 years.

  24. The "Macintosh" HAS been stagnant lately. by MurrayTodd · · Score: 4, Interesting

    As you said, it's always slow before Macworld or WWDC, and this last MacWorld was totally lame for actual Mac owners since it was only about the damn phone and tv. No Leopard, no replacement for the long-absent iSights, no Blu-Ray DVD. The actual "Macintosh" is far more stagnant than I ever remember seeing it in the last five years.

    --
    Murray Todd Williams
  25. "increase security at Apple stores to stop riots" by Zhe+Mappel · · Score: 4, Funny
    I can't wait to see how much trouble Apple has keeping up with demand when they announce Core 2 Duo Mac Minis and new iMacs with OS X 10.5 and CS3. If they actually release any kind of ~$1000 xMac they'd have to increase security at Apple stores to keep riots from occurring.

    Security Log of Rent-A-Cop Sam MacSnappy

    9:54 a.m. The store is due to open in a few minutes, and already there's a vast, unruly mob outside. Look at those thugs. I saw one guy crunching on a celery stick in an obviously agressive manner, and another slurping a Zero Fat Smoothie with total hostility for authority. Go ahead, Zippy. Make my day.

    10:13 a.m. First arrest. Somebody named Merriam got a little too friendly with the new sub-$1000 unit. I told him, "You can do those kinds of things at home in your 1970's-decorated palace of sin," but in the end I still had to mace the sucker.

    10:28 a.m. Man down! Man down! They're got Security Associate Clyde Dawkins on his back, and they're tickling him with a long feather boa and singing the "Macarena"! It's just unspeakable!

    10:37 a.m. We've barricaded the storefront, but I don't know how long we can last. All these guys in thick, black retro eyeglass frames are throwing themselves against our makeshift barriers, then collapsing with long, attenuated sighs. It's like watching insane undernourished salmon trying to spawn--salmon in pencil-thin black jeans! The staffers are no help, standing around discussing their favorite yogurts and "the identify crisis of the Finder," whatever the hell that is.

    10:48 a.m. That's it. I quit. No money is worth watching a grown man kiss an iPod.

  26. Re:ATTN: SWITCHEURS! by kinabrew · · Score: 5, Insightful

    I use Firefox on OS X, and my main issue is that it doesn't feel like a "proper Mac application". Certain things don't work like every other program.

    For example, on single-line text input boxes, a Mac user should be able to hit the up arrow or down arrow to go to the beginning or end of the line. Firefox doesn't behave correctly.

    Widgets don't just look wrong; they look like they were pulled off of a Windows machine. And submit buttons are a different size than regular buttons.

    In the OS X version of Firefox, the menus aren't Mac-like at all.

    • The "Tools" menu is a hold-over from Windows. Mac applications have a "Window" menu where you can select from open windows and commonly-used windows. In Firefox, this menu is wasted. The "Tools" menu should be completely removed, and its contents should be moved. Items like "Downloads" and "Error Console" belong in the "Window" menu. Items like "Page Info" belong in the "File" menu(or in the "View" menu, next to "Page Source").
    • "Check for Updates" should be moved from the "Help" menu to the "Firefox" menu.

    Don't get me wrong; I actually prefer Firefox to other browsers. But Firefox has been on the Mac platform since 2003. Within the last four years, the theme has changed several times. Heck, the toolbar icons have changed at least once under each incarnation(Phoenix, Firebird, and Firefox). Within those four years, I would have expected an attempt at making the browser act and look like a proper Mac application, rather than a port from Windows.