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The End is Nigh for XP
SlinkySausage writes "Computer makers have been told they'll no longer be able to get Windows XP OEM by the end of this year, despite strong ongoing demand for the OS. Analysts and computer makers are wondering if the move is premature given Vista's ongoing performance and compatibility issues. Dell recently said it would reintroduce XP on a range of machines due to customer demand but Microsoft will only allow this until the end of the year."
The last copies are going to be a hot commodity next year. I definately plan to set a couple aside before then. Hello Ebay!
Our favorite used to be Windows 2000 Pro, because it didn't spend a lot of time getting in our way of booting up and running automated applications.
Then, Microsoft pulled Windows 2000 last year. So we moved to XP Pro..after some pain in getting rid of most of the "were Microsoft, and we are going to think for you" eye candy and automated autoconfig BS, we again had a stable OS to build on, or so we thought.
But having been burned, we started one of our new digital signage projects last year based on Slackware Linux...and we are quite happy with it. Yes it took longer, but we don't have to worry about MS pulling the rug out from under us. We don't have to worry about losing our development investment with Linux.
Apple's Steve jobs pulled a similar stupid stunt when he pulled the plug on the Power PC and all the development around it. We had built products around that too, but after having our products rendered useless by Apple's decision, (not once but twice, remember Nubus?) we'll never ever develop for Apple ever again.
What MS doesn't get about companies like mine is that there is no way we'd ever build a dedicated box or appliance application on Vista. The premise is a joke. If MS had any sense left, they'd keep XP around so that the OEM market had something to work with that wasn't just a collection of glorified myopic and incompatible eye candy.
Dell, having had a long relationship with Microsoft, knew that Microsoft would try to shove Vista down their throats -- ready or not. Combined with Apple's recent success, I wonder if this prompted their foray into consumer Linux.
I agree with some of this, but many other operating systems and distros include an equivalent to windows update. Mac OS has software update. Redhat, Ubuntu and many other linux distros include a gui software update like product. Microsoft doesn't even use a website anymore in vista. Its all an app that connects to a server (using HTTP or some other protocol). With Redhat EL 3 I could even get driver updates for some binary blob drivers pushed down. I think Suse has this also.
There are downsides to Linux, but this is not one of them. I think a few of the BSDs are going this route too. FreeBSD has a freebsd-update tool in 6.2. It downloads binary "patch" files and applies them to the userland/kernel for you. Its a new feature and still needs work. Its also a command line app. I haven't checked, but PC-BSD may tie into this also.. if not they could use their PBI system for that I would think.
We are in the planning stages with MidnightBSD for a software update and ports system. Our security officer has written a new patch generator to make src patches. This will integrate with our new mports mport tool. (think portupgrade + portinstall + portversion + pkg_add...) Some of this is already prototyped in perl and we plan to rewrite most of it in C as a library with a CLI and GNUstep gui.
Open source can be this easy. It should be this easy.
I don't think Linux will get customers over Microsoft's mistake. The few that would leave over vista will probably go to Apple. I doubt its going to be that significant though. Most people will suck it up in two or three years and adopt vista or its successor. Most people skip a windows release anyway.
MidnightBSD: The BSD for Everyone
In the past, when a new version of Windows came out, there was no real need to phase out the old Windows - people wanted the newest version when they bought a new PC.
I guess this is a rather new situation for Microsoft (at least in the OS business.)
Now, it wouldn't seem that it should matter much to MS as long as someone pays the license, but I guess in the long run it could cost them money, not just from prolonged support, but people who already have a version of XP at home could start looking for an OS-less PC when they upgrade and just install what they have since drivers would undoubtedly be available for that hardware and not just Vista/nextGreatestOS.
And the claim that Windows Update is better than update systems for Linux is so wrong it's not funny. Sure, Windows Update keeps Windows (and maybe Microsoft Office) updated. But what about all the other applications on the system? They come (if you're lucky) with their own update systems, all of which work differently. The Fedora Core system my mother is running includes image-editing software, messaging clients, etc. etc. all of which are kept updated by the same update systme.
Open Source makes it possible for a single distributor to manage updates for all the softare on the system. In contrast, it's impossible for Microsoft (or anyone else) to manage updates for Adobe and Qualcomm and Apple as well as for their own software.
Danny.
I have written over 900 book reviews
Huh? You really should go download Ubuntu.
I'm a Windows admin too, and started playing with Ubuntu about 6 months ago. It's a damn site easier to patch than windows.
As others have said, Microsoft Update is for MS software, and only selected applications at that. To install software in Ubuntu I just use a repositry and use the "Add Programs" menu. Every single program I've installed is now managed and updated by Ubuntu. My last update patched 40+ programs, in a single operation, without a reboot.
So, under Ubuntu:
- Installing programs means ticking one box and pressing ok
- Patching all programs means clicking ok when the update program asks to run
- Uninstalling programs means unticking one box and pressing ok
And all of this without reboots.
I'm sorry, I'm a huge fan of windows, but Ubuntu amazed me the first time I used it. There is simply no comparison between this and windows in terms of ease of use, and that's only going to improve. Plus the damn thing's more secure anyway. I'm not running firewall or AV software on my linux box, it simply doesn't need it.
Myx
In 12 months time, the only XP you can get will be pirated copies.
That means if you want to stick to Windows on your new PC, you will ned to invest in Vista.... at a steep increase in hardware, software cost and maintenance cost (driver issues, bug fixes etc)
The Home segment will need connectivity to lots of 2-yr old peripherals... and they will be pissed that neither Vista supports their peripherals, NOR the hardware vendor is keen to write certified drivers for Vista.... this will push hardware makers to go the way of open source drivers, and supporting Linux. Microsoft will be too much of a moving target since old drivers and hacks will no longer work with Vista. Result: Hardware and peripheral makers switch to Linux, and take home users with them.
The 'build-your-own' segment of PC makers will suffer heavily, since Vista seems specifically designed to discourage this market, and promote large OEMs like Dell and HP. The stability of Vista on custom-built PCs seems much degraded than big-brand PCs of inferior specs.
Result: Build-your-own PC makers move to Linux, and start adding value to their offerings instead of just loading OEM Vista.
When it comes to corporate PCs, there are basically two categories:
1. Those who have Corporate licenses for a fixed no. of desktops will stick to XP or 2000 or even NT 4.0.... (my nephew in Bangalore is migrating server farms of Shell from NT4 to Win2K... he's having fun managing those mailboxes and migration to Active Directory!). Result: Vista on the corporate desktop will have to wait a loooong time for big corporates with site licenses.
2. Corporates without site licenses will be faced with a choice: Either buy new PCs with Vista, forking out large sums for jumbo hardware and bloated software...
OR
Migrate the desktop to Linux.
Corporate sysadmins have been notoriously lazy for a decade and more... (I know, I was one until recently). Sysadmin usually meant applying patches and Service Packs, blindly installing the latest OSes from MS, firewalls and IDS etc. Until now, sysadmin seldom got involved in IT planning, Standardising on formats, protocols, identity management, entitlement, provisioning etc.
With Vista, the price for this laziness is being increased steeply - the Vista desktop PC is going to be twice as epensive as the XP equivlent, and mgmnt is going to frown at incompetent sysadmins who never planned for migrating away from Windows and Office lock-ins. Even if the desktop gets Vista by default from the OEM, the servers and apps are still going to be on old versions of Windows or Linux servers for a long time to come. Maintaining support requests from new Vista users is going to be a huge new headache for lethargic sysadmins. Result: New hardware gets Vista; old hardware remains on existing Windows versions.
The few sysadmins who can see what's coming are alredy planning to do away with Desktop apps and standardise on Web apps that work with non-IE browsers on non-Windows OSes AS WELL AS existing Windows boxes with IE. This is what we're doing at our firm - except for some CAD software and call-centre software, all other desktops are shifting to web-based apps in this year. What if the CAD appln does not run on Vista? What if IBM doesn't release a Vista-compatible client by this year? We don't have control over those... but the next year should be interesting. Vista appears to be an attempt to arm-twist the entire spectrum of the IT ecosystem into the Microsoft-way. And that is why it is doomed to fail spectacularly.
Unlike previous versions, Vista will mean changing EVERY aspect of current IT functioning. Which is why it is a definite victory for Linux and Free Software, because at last, it will be more easier on the Desktop than adaoting to Vista.
If you keep throwing chairs, one day you'll break windows....
Really? I can hook into the Windows Update Services and Windows Update Agent? Where? All I can find on MSDN is ability to check for windows updates and such. All programs that are updated with WUA are MS applications like Office or Visual Studio.
Where is the API to hook into the Windows Update to check for my own updates??
net stop wuauserv
This does stop the Automatic Updates service and thus gets rid of the dialog. Then it's your responsibility to remember that your system does require a restart.
In XP Pro, you can disable this dialog via a group policy, try googling for the exact value.
I find that Linux improves my productivity; it runs faster - not a lot faster, but enough to be noticeable. Having multiple virtual desktops comes in handy. Having things like iso burning built into the OS saves a few minutes here and there. I know I can open just about any file thrown at me with something - even the most proprietary documents succumb to one of my office programs - whereas on Windows I have to have third party programs to open archives. It handles accents much more nicely. I don't get "time to restart" prompts in the middle of working... A lot of it is also familiarity, of course, but once you're used to the idiosyncrasies, not having to worry about security or stability save you more time than you'd expect - or at least more time than I expected.
Of course, not being distracted by games helps too!
I used to do that in OSX. Leave Software Update sitting at the "reboot" stage for weeks at a time. At least windows offers a "reboot later" option.
The same happened with ME, I think - they'd reached the end of what they could do with the Windows 95 codebase, and they recognized that and moved to XP "Home" for the next consumer release. As an upgrade from Windows 2000, XP wasn't any better than Vista from XP, so it was probably only XP Home that saved them from this last time around.
If they'd delivered the Vista they were busy telling everyone about 5 years ago, they would have had some significant changes to upgrade to, but almost everything of note was dropped and they've gone and released a confusing array of different versions of Vista, all crippled in different ways. Is it any wonder that noone wants it?
When MS stops supporting it, I'll stop getting all these insistent messages to download the latest security fixes which aren't, and can finally have a stable platform I can start to understand. This is a good thing.
XP will not go away. It will continue to exist on the machines of everyone who keeps it and CD ROMS that people don't throw away. Hell, 95 and 98 haven't gone away. I still have them on a couple old machines because some things I use insist on them. By now I can fix anything that might go wrong with them. Same will go for XP.
"I may be synthetic, but I'm not stupid." -- Bishop 341-B
I agree with that, #ubuntu is a great channel, and I give thanks to the people in there who have helped me time and time again. (And I have helped a few, gotta keep the cycle going.)
-- Lattyware (www.lattyware.co.uk)
Yes, there is some software that just isn't the same as in Windows. Games will probably never reach parity.
As for video editing, it depends on what you buy on the Windows end. I bought 3 different video editing packages on MSWindows. Yes, they were not the high end $1K+ packages that professions use. They were all between $80 and $150, I'm pretty sure.
None of them ever worked right for me. Going to their forums showed lots of people that told you to download a particular version of the software (not the latest) and install particular patches (not all of them) and cross your fingers that audio & video sync and that your application doesn't crash while rendering the video.
Now I use Kino, and am quite happy with the results. If I want more, there's always Cinelerra (+/- CV), Diva, Jahshaka, Kdenlive, and Pitivi. So if the software is for home video editing, I think the Linux desktop is already there.
Help! I'm a slashdot refugee.
That remains to be seen. For example, a while after they stop selling it, MS will almost certainly discontinue supporting XP, just as they have Win95 and Win98. However, unlike Win95 and Win98, XP won't "just install" and work on a compatible machine, even though you have a legitimate disk. Your machine subsequently crashes, requiring a reinstall. The new install of XP promptly demands registration. MS informs you that registration for XP is no longer supported. Now what?
This is the potential killer problem with any software that requires you to interact with the manufacturer after you buy it, regardless if it is the entire OS or just some tiny application. If you don't get a registration code that will fully enable the product with the software, as well as the ability to back up both the code and the software, you've just taken a huge risk that your investment will suddenly, at an unpredictable point in the future, cease to be of value, and any data that depends upon it, lost.
You're better off with an OS that doesn't do this. At the present time, that'd probably be linux or OSX. Personally, I prefer OSX, but I've not looked at the newer linux distributions and the buzz for some of them (ubuntu in particular) is getting quite difficult to ignore. I think I'll go install that on my Mac under Parallels, in fact. [toddles off]
I've fallen off your lawn, and I can't get up.
And you sir, are a linux fanboy, who will not hear anything that doesn't fit into his narrow world view. I agree with the parent. My windows PCs are extraordinarily stable. I've got an old laptop I keep around for a bit of low risk portability (no one would ever steal such an ugly old pile of garbage) and it will run Win95 for months on end with no difficulties (which is fine because it doesn't need to be connected to the internet. My desktop has run XP for months at a time between restarts (yes, on a new install, many of the patches require restarts, but now only the odd security update actually needs a restart). My brand new laptop runs Unbuntu strictly for productivity reasons (no Dawn of War or GTA
Is XP the be all and end all solution to everyone's problems? No. Is linux? No. Different people need different systems for a variety of reasons. I use linux when it suits my needs and windows for the same reason. End of story.
Lose: misplace or fail || Loose: not bound together
What everybody seems to have forgotten is Microsoft's licensing policy. Sure, they won't be stamping any new XP discs after a while, but all those fancy new Vista licenses slapped onto new PC's can also be used as a license for any other older OS. At the company I work at, all the new machines we order have XP license stickers on them, however most machines get Windows 2000 installed. So, all you have to do is dupe a bunch of the XP cd's, since having copies of the cd doesn't really constitute piracy, so long as you have a legitimate sticker on the PC, you're good.
Windows has more viruses because linux has more virus coders.
How can you be a healthcare provider AND be using Windows XP? The EULA says that you allow Microsoft and it's partners access to the data on your computer but you must also protect the privacy of the patients. These are mutually exclusive because there is no requirement in the EULA which states Microsoft must tell you what, when, or how it is accessing your data. IMO.
LoB
"Anyone who stands out in the middle of a road looks like roadkill to me." --Linus
I completely agree, but let's put ourselves in a new Linux user's shoes. This person heads out and posts on a few forums looking for help choosing a distribution. Who should they listen to? Everyone has "their distro" and they will most likely sell it to them up and down, even offering to help them get it set up (if needed) but they fail to assess the person asking the question and what their needs are.
What is needed is a Linux "Grading" or a distribution focus map. Let Windows users that just want a working distro out of the box with little to no install option open a webpage, and click the easy button. Meanwhile, categorically list the other distributions, their focus (or intended user) and let the person make an informed decision.
Unfortunately, at the same time as this happens, the zealots have to realize that their distro may not be the crowning achievement of Linux that they hoped and build their module to work with several distributions easily. If this transferability between distros cannot be accomplished, said program should be classified as niche and not recommended to the average user.
This of course relies on the fact that all the distributions stop fighting each other and work together in some manner. It's like urban America out in the Linux world in some respects.
Every time I start to have faith in humanity, I ruin it by driving to work between 7 and 8 am.
It dramatically increased my productivity. Although I mostly use it for programming, I think the benefit can be realized by anyone. With Windows, I was constantly tweaking my setup and not getting as much work done. Things like defragging disks, scanning/cleaning viruses, reinstalling the whole OS from scratch every few months, etc. are just not issues with Linux. I haven't reinstalled Linux from scratch since I switched from Mandrake to Ubuntu but I've upgraded through 5 or 6 full releases with just the package manager and scarcely a reboot.
There are other nice things about Linux too, such as drivers for old hardware. Our old SCSI scanner hasn't been supported on Windows since 98 (HP stopped writing drivers after 98). Actually, this was the reason for switching my wife from Windows 98 to Linux many years ago. FWIW, she prefers Linux now too. Also, with Linux, we can share that scanner using SANE.
I also agree with what someone else said about pop-ups. Windows pop-ups (which are all too common) are modal and steal the input focus from the user. Sometimes I would be typing and accidentally agree (or disagree - who knows!) to a pop-up that I didn't have time to read. On Linux, such pop-ups are rare and they don't steal the input focus.
Best of luck, if you do decided to make the switch.
What happens if MS starts refusing WPA requests on XP? "Sorry, that software is no longer supported. Please install Vista and call back." Or if they send through a compulsory update which starts popping up more and more aggressive reminders to 'upgrade' to Vista, telling us XP has 10, 9, 8 ... days left until EOL?
I'm perfectly happy on XP, but I'm much more nervous about the future than I was when I kept using Win 98 for the first two or three years after XP came out. I'm not anti-Vista, I just see no need to endure an upgrade. It's not like it's going to trouble my hardware either: E6700, 2gb ram, oodles of HD space and an Nvidia 7600GT.
Hal Spacejock: Science Fiction with Nuts
I work in the hearing healthcare business, specifically audiometrics and otoneurology. Our manufacturers lifecycle on software versions is rather extended. A couple were still DOS based in 2001. Currently, everything is spec'd for XP Pro SP2 and I don't expect this to change for at least another year or so. Most computerized medical diagnostic systems are approved by the FDA/UL/CE on a particular make and model and the manufacturer supplies the system with OEM XP. On others, the clients usually supply their own system. This is where we are having problems. Unless the clients special order systems with XP, it will not run the software. Go to Dell or the HP sites and customize a system. XP Pro is not a choice now. Our only resort may be to purchase systems with Vista, reformat, and install XP. This is going to add needless additional costs for the client.
In Europe, selling OEM versions of ANY software, unless you have personally signed an agreement to give up this right for reasonable compensation, is simply put completely legal.
;)
I have personally sold over 50 XP Home/Pro licences at online auctions and also about 10 Vista licences (half of them OEM).
I buy broken equipment that still has the stickers on, trash or repair the hardware and sell the licences for a nice profit. Sometimes I even get Office XP or older licences for free as long as I take away all the "old junk" myself.
No need to sell mice, motherboards or anything. Also no software patents and I can wipe my ass with EULAs and any other bullshit "agreements" I haven't signed. Too bad our VAT is about 20%...
Hey, maybe some of you could sell me a bunch of Windows/Office licence stickers from outside the European VAT zone? I can pay for shipping
Capitalization is the difference between "Helping your uncle jack off a horse" and "Helping your uncle Jack off a horse"
in the past few days when i was trying to get going on ubuntu i mustve asked 8 or 9 questions on the channel, and gotten 1 ... maybe 2 answers
It seems that although quite a few people do get answered, a significant number of questions get bogged down in the massive amount of talk
Ive tried to get ubuntu going for about 3 days on my PC - and in the end, i had to give up, in between ATI graphics not working, programs crashing and not being able to get a lot of programs to work
Maybe in the future, if i get an Nvidia card i will try again, or if ATI starts supporting its cards, i just don't see linux being ready for the world yet
Installation, RAID, MBR and such problems are still mostly seen by the relatively geeky, since Joe Somebody usually doesn't install an OS, but simply uses it (although this might be changing). There are still some showstoppers in the use of Ubuntu, and that is far worse than installation problems. I moved my sister to Ubunbu Dapper a while ago, and all looked fine. The few times I tested her common peripherals (mostly the digital camera with a USB cable), all was fine. But she's been complaining lately that her digital camera doesn't work half the time. Sometimes she plugs it in, and gets a nice "Import pictures" dialog, some other times, nothing happens. She says it's about 50/50, and she manages to import her pictures with perseverance. However, failure of such a "basic" feature (by her standards) is unacceptable, and that's what triggers complaints to me, as I am responsible for her move to Ubuntu.
Hot plugging of USB devices still seem to be a problem on some Linux distros (I experience some problems with my USB and mp3 player on Fedora 6 too, but I'm not the type to complain, nor do I have anyone to complain to). USB has been the "hot new technology to have" for a while now, and the average user wants it. As long as USB support isn't 99.9999% perfect, it's gonna be a huge problem.
After 3 days without programming, life becomes meaningless
- The Tao of Programming
I'm sure I submitted this story a week ago :)
Anyway - my experience was at the local mega-computer store, where Microsoft had come in around 2 weeks ago and 'recovered' all the XP media/disks etc... The store is now 100% XP free, overnight.
Another case, a friend bought a Dell with XP on it - on delivery, it had a free Vista upgrade (and no XP).
Anyway - it's already happenning.
EMail: 0110001101100010010000000110001101110010 0110000101111010011011100110000101110010 0010111001100011011011110110
For the record there is no 'the rest of linux'.. Linux is the linux kernel, period. Everything else that is part of (Redhat/Fedora/Gentoo/Slackware/Debian/[K|X|Ubuntu ]/Gentoo/YellowDog/etc) is not 'linux'.
Some of it is GNU software (including rather important stuff such as gcc & glibc, and a host of GNU substitutes for standard 'Unix' utilities, too numerous to list), Xorg is not linux (but *runs* on linux (as well as others, such as [Free/Open/Net]BSD) but isnt itself 'linux'). KDE *runs* on linux but isnt *part* of linux. The same goes for Gnome, and every other X window manager, environment, and shell. The same for Firefox - it runs on a linux-based system, but isnt part of Linux.
Perhaps these things need managers, perhaps they dont, perhaps they have them but they arent interested in working the way you think.
MS motivation to sell upgrades isnt spurred by hardware makers motivation to sell new systems - it is however the same goal - to make money. MS (has to?) give patches for the currently deployed OS for free - this doesnt make them money. Once everyone that was going to run Windows had XP (and MS Office, if applicable), MS revenue stream runs out, except for the occasional person buying a new computer being forced to buy a new copy of it because the one on the previous machine is 'non transferable'. To continue to pay its bills, MS must continue to create new revenue streams.
Personally, I would love if MS 'end of XP' eventually became the 'end of MS'. (Not that I have any love for XP or any other MS OS) Unfortunately there are way too many ignorant 'consumers' who blindly accept whatever crap Dell and HP sell them.
I don't use Windows so I don't know the background very well, but is XP the first operating system that they could shut down worldwide (except for pirated copies) just by refusing to authorize its installation? Perhaps they didn't shut down the earlier versions as fast because getting illicit copies was so much easier?
Also, don't forget that Vista has all that wonderful DRM which Microsoft is banking on; they want everyone to be using that as soon as possible.
Who cares what Gates gets out of it personally, he still does donate money to charity. He doesn't have to, and yes he could put it all under his mattress if he wanted. Of all the things to knock Bill Gates for, donating money is not at the top of the list.
"But this one goes to 11!"
Your post is the story of my life.
I'm so weary of the constant change.
You can never "master" anything before it is obsolete and time to move on.
After five or six of these iterations, I'm losing interest in mastering anything and withdrawing from computing. I've gone from being a developer to being a project manager (a stable field with a set of rules you can master). I've switched my entire software stack except everquest to open, multi-os software packages that will not be forcibly obsoleted.
I KNOW that some will go obsolete. Heck, if you offer me something 10 times as good, I might upgrade.
But Microsoft seems to be offering 1% to -10% "improvement" to someone like me and they want to force me into a subscription model.
I just want to do artwork, word processing, record/process audio, play shows. XP does all that. Linux does all that. The only software holding me to XP at this time is Everquest and I'm very close to leaving that behind for the same reasons. Every six months there is another expansion which invalidates everything you have done before.
After having six sets of gear invalidated, you start to lose interest in getting on the ride again. And suffering through another three months of flagging to open up parts of the software that you are already paying for.
I agree- I want a nice house that I can polish. not a new house every year that has a new host of problems.
When is life going to stabilize again? I can't see security out more than 2 or 3 years into the future. It makes me weary.
She was like chocolate when she drank... semi-sweet at first and then increasingly bitter.
When you have a Windows problem, how fast does Microsoft answer your questions on its IRC channel?