The End is Nigh for XP

SlinkySausage writes "Computer makers have been told they'll no longer be able to get Windows XP OEM by the end of this year, despite strong ongoing demand for the OS. Analysts and computer makers are wondering if the move is premature given Vista's ongoing performance and compatibility issues. Dell recently said it would reintroduce XP on a range of machines due to customer demand but Microsoft will only allow this until the end of the year."

Comments

Prediction

[edwardpickman]

The last copies are going to be a hot commodity next year. I definately plan to set a couple aside before then. Hello Ebay!

Re:Prediction

[nametaken]

I talked to an MS rep a year or so ago who said the trick with that is you can sell OEM copies if you sell them with a critical hardware component. Since windows technically requires a mouse (per their hw req lists), people just bundle it with a $1 mouse and sell the OEM copy of Windows for much less than the retail copies. It was a just a loophole, and they may have worked it out since then, but it was legal at the time.

What I'm wondering is if the downgrade rights you get with Vista will still apply, and if you'll be able to buy media kits for XP after all this.

This is why my company is starting a move to Linux

[wattsup]

My company builds custom video display systems for TV news, weather, and digital signage. I've always been running a Microsoft shop because we could deploy new designs the fastest. We don't need eye candy, just a stable and compatible OS that we can build on.

Our favorite used to be Windows 2000 Pro, because it didn't spend a lot of time getting in our way of booting up and running automated applications.

Then, Microsoft pulled Windows 2000 last year. So we moved to XP Pro..after some pain in getting rid of most of the "were Microsoft, and we are going to think for you" eye candy and automated autoconfig BS, we again had a stable OS to build on, or so we thought.

But having been burned, we started one of our new digital signage projects last year based on Slackware Linux...and we are quite happy with it. Yes it took longer, but we don't have to worry about MS pulling the rug out from under us. We don't have to worry about losing our development investment with Linux.

Apple's Steve jobs pulled a similar stupid stunt when he pulled the plug on the Power PC and all the development around it. We had built products around that too, but after having our products rendered useless by Apple's decision, (not once but twice, remember Nubus?) we'll never ever develop for Apple ever again.

What MS doesn't get about companies like mine is that there is no way we'd ever build a dedicated box or appliance application on Vista. The premise is a joke. If MS had any sense left, they'd keep XP around so that the OEM market had something to work with that wasn't just a collection of glorified myopic and incompatible eye candy.

Re:Will anyone gain anything from this?

[rolfwind]

Was Microsofts older versions of Windows phased out this fast too?

In the past, when a new version of Windows came out, there was no real need to phase out the old Windows - people wanted the newest version when they bought a new PC.

I guess this is a rather new situation for Microsoft (at least in the OS business.)

Now, it wouldn't seem that it should matter much to MS as long as someone pays the license, but I guess in the long run it could cost them money, not just from prolonged support, but people who already have a version of XP at home could start looking for an OS-less PC when they upgrade and just install what they have since drivers would undoubtedly be available for that hardware and not just Vista/nextGreatestOS.

my mother uses Linux

[danny]

My mother has been using Linux for nearly five years now. There've been a few problems, but as someone who supports Windows users at work, I can confidently say there have been *far* fewer problems than there would have been had she been running Windows. In particular, there have been absolutely no problems with malware and viruses.

And the claim that Windows Update is better than update systems for Linux is so wrong it's not funny. Sure, Windows Update keeps Windows (and maybe Microsoft Office) updated. But what about all the other applications on the system? They come (if you're lucky) with their own update systems, all of which work differently. The Fedora Core system my mother is running includes image-editing software, messaging clients, etc. etc. all of which are kept updated by the same update systme.

Open Source makes it possible for a single distributor to manage updates for all the softare on the system. In contrast, it's impossible for Microsoft (or anyone else) to manage updates for Adobe and Qualcomm and Apple as well as for their own software.

Danny.

Re:my mother uses Linux

[pair-a-noyd]

I switched my dad to Linux about 5 years ago too.
He was calling me almost every day because his windows 2k PC was locking up CONSTANTLY, it would lock up and he would hit the reset button and get back online (dial up modem). He might get lucky and be able to stay running for 20 minutes, 30 minutes max when for no reason what-so-ever it would lock up again.
Total lockup. He called me constantly, pissed about his PC. I would drive 10 miles to his house 2-3 times a week to try to fix it, as hitting the reset button all the time was damaging the file system and corrupting files. What a nightmare.

One day I had enough and I said "Dad, do you want to put an end to this stupid shit?"
"Yes."
"Let me take your PC to my place for a few days and install Linux on it."
"Ok"

Problem solved. There have been one or two minor issues but nothing I couldn't walk him through on the phone, usually it was user permissions changing on /dev/modem for some weird reason. Easy to fix over the phone.

All he does with it is browse a few forums with Konqueror, does some email (Kmail) and programs some G codes for his CNC shop in his garage. ( http://www.linuxcnc.org/ )

ZERO viruses, ZERO spyware, ZERO trojans, etc. etc..

Best thing I ever did was putting him on Linux. Made MY life soooo much easier...

Re:my mother uses Linux

[managementboy]

I have posted this before, but I also switched my mother (60 years old) to Linux about 2 years ago. The funny thing is we live on 2 different continents with about 7 hours of lag.

Pros: No Spyware, no Virus. Automatic security patches. No reboots for installs. Remote management (ssh, vnc). Everything works!! I am down from about 5 hour/week to about 1 hour/month of maintenance. OpenOffice is just like MSOffice (she still calls it Word, who cares). All of her Hardware works (cheap HP printer)! Multi protocol messenger (kopete) has taken the trouble of explaining the differences between Yahoo, AOL etc away (again without the security problems on MS Land). Spam fighting build into Kmail (using spamassassin).

Cons: some of her girlfriends told her that they could not send her mails because she used Linux (they have no clue what that is, but their 20 year old sons think they do). Power Management is not up to date (suse 10.0).

Re:Will anyone gain anything from this? Not Linux

[myxiplx]

Huh? You really should go download Ubuntu.

I'm a Windows admin too, and started playing with Ubuntu about 6 months ago. It's a damn site easier to patch than windows.

As others have said, Microsoft Update is for MS software, and only selected applications at that. To install software in Ubuntu I just use a repositry and use the "Add Programs" menu. Every single program I've installed is now managed and updated by Ubuntu. My last update patched 40+ programs, in a single operation, without a reboot.

So, under Ubuntu:
  - Installing programs means ticking one box and pressing ok
  - Patching all programs means clicking ok when the update program asks to run
  - Uninstalling programs means unticking one box and pressing ok

And all of this without reboots.

I'm sorry, I'm a huge fan of windows, but Ubuntu amazed me the first time I used it. There is simply no comparison between this and windows in terms of ease of use, and that's only going to improve. Plus the damn thing's more secure anyway. I'm not running firewall or AV software on my linux box, it simply doesn't need it.

Myx

My predictions for Wndows over the next year...

[jkrise]

In 12 months time, the only XP you can get will be pirated copies.
That means if you want to stick to Windows on your new PC, you will ned to invest in Vista.... at a steep increase in hardware, software cost and maintenance cost (driver issues, bug fixes etc)

The Home segment will need connectivity to lots of 2-yr old peripherals... and they will be pissed that neither Vista supports their peripherals, NOR the hardware vendor is keen to write certified drivers for Vista.... this will push hardware makers to go the way of open source drivers, and supporting Linux. Microsoft will be too much of a moving target since old drivers and hacks will no longer work with Vista. Result: Hardware and peripheral makers switch to Linux, and take home users with them.

The 'build-your-own' segment of PC makers will suffer heavily, since Vista seems specifically designed to discourage this market, and promote large OEMs like Dell and HP. The stability of Vista on custom-built PCs seems much degraded than big-brand PCs of inferior specs.

Result: Build-your-own PC makers move to Linux, and start adding value to their offerings instead of just loading OEM Vista.

When it comes to corporate PCs, there are basically two categories:
1. Those who have Corporate licenses for a fixed no. of desktops will stick to XP or 2000 or even NT 4.0.... (my nephew in Bangalore is migrating server farms of Shell from NT4 to Win2K... he's having fun managing those mailboxes and migration to Active Directory!). Result: Vista on the corporate desktop will have to wait a loooong time for big corporates with site licenses.

2. Corporates without site licenses will be faced with a choice: Either buy new PCs with Vista, forking out large sums for jumbo hardware and bloated software...
OR
Migrate the desktop to Linux.

Corporate sysadmins have been notoriously lazy for a decade and more... (I know, I was one until recently). Sysadmin usually meant applying patches and Service Packs, blindly installing the latest OSes from MS, firewalls and IDS etc. Until now, sysadmin seldom got involved in IT planning, Standardising on formats, protocols, identity management, entitlement, provisioning etc.

With Vista, the price for this laziness is being increased steeply - the Vista desktop PC is going to be twice as epensive as the XP equivlent, and mgmnt is going to frown at incompetent sysadmins who never planned for migrating away from Windows and Office lock-ins. Even if the desktop gets Vista by default from the OEM, the servers and apps are still going to be on old versions of Windows or Linux servers for a long time to come. Maintaining support requests from new Vista users is going to be a huge new headache for lethargic sysadmins. Result: New hardware gets Vista; old hardware remains on existing Windows versions.

The few sysadmins who can see what's coming are alredy planning to do away with Desktop apps and standardise on Web apps that work with non-IE browsers on non-Windows OSes AS WELL AS existing Windows boxes with IE. This is what we're doing at our firm - except for some CAD software and call-centre software, all other desktops are shifting to web-based apps in this year. What if the CAD appln does not run on Vista? What if IBM doesn't release a Vista-compatible client by this year? We don't have control over those... but the next year should be interesting. Vista appears to be an attempt to arm-twist the entire spectrum of the IT ecosystem into the Microsoft-way. And that is why it is doomed to fail spectacularly.

Unlike previous versions, Vista will mean changing EVERY aspect of current IT functioning. Which is why it is a definite victory for Linux and Free Software, because at last, it will be more easier on the Desktop than adaoting to Vista.

Re:My predictions for Wndows over the next year...

[jkrise]

This is pretty ridiculous. Most computers bought within the last year will run Vista and essentially all new computers can (the cheapest PC from Dell would work fine with Vista). As for drivers, I doubt there will be any problems in 12 months (from what I've heard from people using Vista now, most of them are already resolved).

Where I live, most computers are bought not from big brand OEMs but assmebled and custom-built to specs. The average config today is 256 / 512MB RAM, no special graphics card - the on-board chipset is used, and it takes 8MB VRAM from the main RAM via a BIOS setting. This with XP is good enough for home use. This way, the custom-built PC is 25% cheaper than a branded one with similar specs, and about 40% cheaper with top-of-the line specs.

Last week, I met with one such h/w vendor and he confessed that with Vista he is forced to go in for branded boxes, because it's very very complex and complicated to build truly Vista compatible systems. He says nobody has reliable information on graphics cards, sound cards, chipsets, webcam support, USB camera support, wireless card support, FireWire (IEEE 1394?) support etc. This has cut down 'built-to-order' PC sales by 40% over the last few months. This is driving him to get his support team familiar with Ubuntu.

Where the hell are you getting this from? You're claiming that Vista runs worse on off the shelf parts as compared to Dell?

I'm sorry, I can't read any more of this. Have fun in that little fantasy land of yours.

As quoted above, I'm getting this from the h/w vendor with whom I've been dealing for over 10 years now. Vista seems to discriminate between systems from big-time OEMs and custom-built ones. The main culprit is the amount of misinformation on device drivers etc. Hardware that's worked fine with XP WITHOUT DRIVER issues crashes regularly with Vista.

On further enquiry, it appears big OEMs actually source motherboards from Asus, Gigabyte, Mercury etc. ... but the performance of Vista is still degraded on these same boards when 'assembled'. One would conclude that Vista reads the BIOS (which is the only difference between braded and custom-built kits) and behaves better if it detects a familiar OEM BIOS.

Re:Will anyone gain anything from this? Not Linux

[gnuman99]

Really? I can hook into the Windows Update Services and Windows Update Agent? Where? All I can find on MSDN is ability to check for windows updates and such. All programs that are updated with WUA are MS applications like Office or Visual Studio.

Where is the API to hook into the Windows Update to check for my own updates??

Re:Will anyone gain anything from this?

[nschubach]

I completely agree, but let's put ourselves in a new Linux user's shoes. This person heads out and posts on a few forums looking for help choosing a distribution. Who should they listen to? Everyone has "their distro" and they will most likely sell it to them up and down, even offering to help them get it set up (if needed) but they fail to assess the person asking the question and what their needs are.

What is needed is a Linux "Grading" or a distribution focus map. Let Windows users that just want a working distro out of the box with little to no install option open a webpage, and click the easy button. Meanwhile, categorically list the other distributions, their focus (or intended user) and let the person make an informed decision.

Unfortunately, at the same time as this happens, the zealots have to realize that their distro may not be the crowning achievement of Linux that they hoped and build their module to work with several distributions easily. If this transferability between distros cannot be accomplished, said program should be classified as niche and not recommended to the average user.

This of course relies on the fact that all the distributions stop fighting each other and work together in some manner. It's like urban America out in the Linux world in some respects.

Re:Will anyone gain anything from this?

[Phisbut]

Ubuntu is nice, but not without issues. I spent 4 hours 'fixing' my computer after trying to install Ubuntu. It only took 10 mins to break my computer with the Ubuntu installer. As it where, I have a Dell XPS with 2 160GB HD's raided (stripping) and 1 250GB with nothing on it. I wanted to simply install Linux on the 250GB and leave windows on my Raid drive. However, allowing the Ubuntu auto installer from the LiveCD go, it screwed up my MBR, in which after installation and reboot you get a GRUB error 21 (unknown error) or "Could not load operating system" if I change the raid/standard hd drive over in my bios.

Installation, RAID, MBR and such problems are still mostly seen by the relatively geeky, since Joe Somebody usually doesn't install an OS, but simply uses it (although this might be changing). There are still some showstoppers in the use of Ubuntu, and that is far worse than installation problems. I moved my sister to Ubunbu Dapper a while ago, and all looked fine. The few times I tested her common peripherals (mostly the digital camera with a USB cable), all was fine. But she's been complaining lately that her digital camera doesn't work half the time. Sometimes she plugs it in, and gets a nice "Import pictures" dialog, some other times, nothing happens. She says it's about 50/50, and she manages to import her pictures with perseverance. However, failure of such a "basic" feature (by her standards) is unacceptable, and that's what triggers complaints to me, as I am responsible for her move to Ubuntu.

Hot plugging of USB devices still seem to be a problem on some Linux distros (I experience some problems with my USB and mp3 player on Fedora 6 too, but I'm not the type to complain, nor do I have anyone to complain to). USB has been the "hot new technology to have" for a while now, and the average user wants it. As long as USB support isn't 99.9999% perfect, it's gonna be a huge problem.

Re:Who Wants To Move Apartments Every Year?

[Maxo-Texas]

Your post is the story of my life.

I'm so weary of the constant change.

You can never "master" anything before it is obsolete and time to move on.

After five or six of these iterations, I'm losing interest in mastering anything and withdrawing from computing. I've gone from being a developer to being a project manager (a stable field with a set of rules you can master). I've switched my entire software stack except everquest to open, multi-os software packages that will not be forcibly obsoleted.

I KNOW that some will go obsolete. Heck, if you offer me something 10 times as good, I might upgrade.

But Microsoft seems to be offering 1% to -10% "improvement" to someone like me and they want to force me into a subscription model.

I just want to do artwork, word processing, record/process audio, play shows. XP does all that. Linux does all that. The only software holding me to XP at this time is Everquest and I'm very close to leaving that behind for the same reasons. Every six months there is another expansion which invalidates everything you have done before.
After having six sets of gear invalidated, you start to lose interest in getting on the ride again. And suffering through another three months of flagging to open up parts of the software that you are already paying for.

I agree- I want a nice house that I can polish. not a new house every year that has a new host of problems.
When is life going to stabilize again? I can't see security out more than 2 or 3 years into the future. It makes me weary.