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The Final Days of Google

theodp writes "Robert X. Cringely speculates about The Final Days of Google, making a compelling case that when the end comes, it is going to be an inside job. To find the founders of a Google-beating start-up, Cringely suggests looking no further than the thousands of entrepreneurial geniuses currently working for Google, who will inevitably be driven to leave the company to realize the dreams of their rejected ideas. 'The real money is in taking existing ideas and twisting the idea just far enough to make it work in a fantastic new way. Think Google vs. AltaVista; Apple vs. all previously existing laptops and mp3 players; YouTube vs. all previously existing video sites, etc. In addition to ideas, you need creativity, resources, connections, and luck -- none of which appear to be in short supply among Google worker bees. Much of the next influx of ideas to Sand Hill Road will come not just from former Google employees, but also from groups of former Google employees who are planning their future companies over free sushi and Diet Coke late at night in Google cafeterias.'"

9 of 177 comments (clear)

  1. Final days by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0, Funny

    The final days are near when the Jesus-god will return to judge the worthy and the unworthy. Learn the magic happy dance and perform it daily or the Jesus-god will turn you into macaroni salad

    Not even Google can save you from hte Jesus-god you have been warned.

    Spare us your wrath your humble servants we pray o Jesus-god.

  2. The end of google will come by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 4, Funny

    But first they need to fire 150,000 workers. It's not going to be pretty.

  3. Re:look further by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 4, Funny

    (if u are old enough to remember that).

    Hi Grandpa - If you're going to abbreviate 'you' to 'u', please also abbreviate 'are' to 'r'

  4. Funny? Insightful! by pimpimpim · · Score: 3, Funny
    so, a factor 10 overestimated according to wikipedia (12.000). But as far as I know, Google is still going around hiring. I think that we as IT interested people should be glad that apparently it is possible to build a healthy company where innovative ideas that actually work are developed. Why should you want a company to go down if it's doing it's thing in a succesfull way. I am from Holland, and there someone who iis very sucessful is automatically an asshole in the public opinion. Well not if they 'Staid so normal'. I fear that cringely has gotten a severe case of this dutch disease...

    Anyway, I think he forgets two main points. one overlooked concern is size. Size is needed to create momentum: you can only sell a lot of ads of you have a lot of viewers, you can only buy the computing capacity and bandwith if you have a lot of revenue. If you as a google-like company do not manage to get the critical momentum. It is the same size that makes google inherently an 'evil' company. They have are so involved in your private life that they get a lot of potential power over you. Google tries to handle this power in one way or another, maybe you do not agree with many of their decisions, but what are their options, and is there one single correct way to handle this?

    Then there is second factor, quality: Remember, in the case of google, you have the choice to use it or not. There are at least a few alternatives for every application that they offer. But you CHOOSE to use google, because of the quality of the products. Apparently the designers behind google have a feeling for quality products that is outstanding. This is something to respect, it is not easy to make something technological easy. Just think about it, when was the last time you clicked the 'advanced' search button in google. They did an amazing job of opening the web in a way anyone can use. Imagine that they would work with regexes? Or via clickable boxes for every special option? No, the genius is in taking a complex problem, and presenting it in the most simple form understandable by humans. I for one, can not repeat this, can you? Can cringely? This is also where google can fail. Just this week I noticed that my terrible old pc has more and more problems with google every time. Google mail is getting pretty bloated with features in that it is very slow to load in my browser. As I said, to find the right balance between features and simpleness is an art, if they start really losing that, I will start useing something else pretty quickly.

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    molmod.com - computing tips from a molecular modeling
  5. Re:So..... by phantomflanflinger · · Score: 4, Funny

    Google - remember that? Those were the days. No wonder they went the way of all the dotcom companies, what with all the billions of dollars they made.

    Note to self: must cut down on LSD-flavoured potato chips.

    Here's Cringely telling it like it is. Amen to him.

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    shin phantomflanflinger
  6. Re:So..... by westyx · · Score: 2, Funny

    Lose it? Cringely has been trolling for years, and slashdot and the internet just keep lapping it up.

  7. Re:So..... by ajanp · · Score: 3, Funny
    I don't understand why Cringley still has the ability to make front-page slashdot news given the numerous times he has been wrong about things. The underlying argument for his article is weak at best and he is basically criticizing Google for hiring the best minds.

    the Google Geeks are constantly talking with each other, team building, bonding, and goofing off. And for 20 percent of that goofing-off time I'll guarantee you that many of these people are discussing their pet projects, 99.75 percent of which have been REJECTED by the company.

    Hmmm... so because the Google employees decide to spend their free time talking about work as well as new and innovative projects, the company is destined to fail. That makes a ton of sense. Given Cringley's reputation for fact-checking, I'm going to assume him saying 99.75% of ideas are rejected is either completely out of context or just blatantly false.

    The search feature of Google will always be the bread and butter and there is no way they will let employees go and start up a competitor given all the trade secrets and insider knowledge that they are privvy too. And somehow I think Cringley, for whatever reason, is making the assumption that the idea to pursue ideas/projects proposed by employees are based on the whims of Google execs. They're not retards. They sift through thousands of ideas coming from some of the most talented people in the world and make decisions about which to pursue and which aren't worth it. For the few good ideas that get rejected initially, there is nothing stopping the employees from working on the projects in their free time w/o company resources and proposing a more developed, more thought-out project afterwards.

    Maybe it's just me, but I don't foresee a mass exodus of people because of ideas getting rejected. Cringley makes it sound like having an idea shot down is going to turn "hundreds -- and soon thousands" of Google employees into disgruntled geniuses out to seek revenge by creating something that will somehow destroy Google (which could only happen by managing to make their search/ad revenue obsolete).

    Either way, please, let's all lament about Google's downfall because they have hired the best people on the planet and they enjoy discussing pet projects in their free time. And then let's also blame them for keeping the ideas they think are best and rejecting the ones that don't have potential. With such a flawed business model I can only assume that the end days are upon us.

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    File Deletion is Murder.
  8. Re:Heh by Breakfast+Pants · · Score: 2, Funny

    Yeah, comparing Apple's 'Rise to Dominance' in the laptop market to Google's rise in the search market is like comparing Datsun's rise in the US market to Toyota's.

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    WHO ATE MY BREAKFAST PANTS?
  9. Before the merger? by untree · · Score: 2, Funny

    great-grandson of the first president of the National Association of Manufacturers (NAM)
    Was that before NAM merged with BLA?