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The Desktop -- Time to Start Saying Goodbye?
Lucas123 writes "Robert Scheier at Computerworld writes that while worldwide PC shipments are expected to grow 12.2% this year, portable PC volumes are expected to grow 28% and will make up more than half of all PC shipments in the U.S. this quarter. Notebooks will dominate the worldwide PC marketplace by 2010. 'One researcher predicts it will be five to seven years before only the "die-hard" desktop users are left.'"
you mean like an imac?
I'm not sure I agree. I have two desktops at home as well as my laptop. I am a gamer, and when I play I use my workstation. It has better graphics, more memory, better sound, and bigger hard drives. Also, because I build my own systems, I do not have to pay what I do for a laptop. I also do not have to pay it all at once. I am in a constant upgrade cycle using towers that I originally purchased around 2002. Because I do not have to replace everything at once, it is less of a financial burden to keep the machine up to near cutting edge.
OK, maybe I am just one of those "die-hard" desktop users.
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1. Cost. Laptops cost almost twice what comparable desktop systems cost. This gap could close when flat displays become cheaper and production numbers increase considerably.
2. Upgrades. Upgrading a laptop means currently that you have to throw out the old one and buy a new one. This, too, could be seen as a minor problem, with the Joe Average User buying a new computer every few years rather than doing midlife upgrades and laptops that come across as "barebones" with interchangeable parts.
3. Vendor lock-in. Even if upgrading is possible, you often need very specific Dell/IBM/Toshiba-only parts that fit only in this brand of laptop, often also only in this series (anyone who ever wanted to up their ram in the IBM notebooks knows what I'm talking about). This is unlikely to change, since companies DO want you to be locked in. I highly doubt they'll agree to a standard.
4. Heat. The most advanced and fastest CPUs and even more GPUs produce an incredible amount of waste heat that a notebook cannot sensibly get rid of. Usually you do get a "notebook" version of those chips, but they are usually either slower or a generation behind, when more advanced production processes allow the same speed with less heat.
5. Displays. Notebooks are supposed to be small, displays can't be large enough. Unless we find a way to "fold" displays, people who want more than a 17" display will not enjoy the notebook experience. Either that or they'll grumble when they get to haul around a notebook that can house a 20" display...
5. Space. Notebooks only have so much space, unless you increase their size to inane proportions. This is most noticable for HDDs, which are hard if not impossible to upgrade, and even current notebooks hardly come with more than 200GB of storage space, something that is allright for travels, but I doubt it would make them popular with people who have a need for a lot of storage.
6. Defects. When a part of the notebook fails, you have to send it in for repairs. No user serviceable parts inside (with most models at least). When the graphics card in the desktop fails, rip it out and replace it.
The list goes on. While notebook use will certainly increase over the next years (points 1 and 2 can pretty easily be taken care of, and will), I do not see them as the all powerful replacement of desktops. They might have their place in work environments, especially when mobility is an issue, but in the private sector (and especially amongst hardcore gamers, video/audio junkies and graphics artists) the desktop will most likely survive.
We used to have a Bill of Rights. Now, with the rights gone, all we have left is the bill.
Does it have a 22" (or even larger) wide screen and a full size keyboard? Can you upgrade/repair it yourself?
Desktops always just feel a lot faster to me. Maybe it has changed lately, but the harddrives used to always be painfully slow in laptops. I had a laptop that I thought was fine, but once I started using a new desktop with 22" widescreen and 10,000rpm hardrives, the laptop is a painful experience.
It'd be a bitch to try and install two or three PCI tuner cards in one for a mythtv setup, and pretty few laptops come with digital audio out, much less HDMI ports.
You know HDMI is exactly the same as DVI except HDMI has audio and no VGA.
You can buy a cable online for $10 with DVI at one end and HDMI on the other.
As far as digital audio.. yeah, you're on your own.
Latewire
I agree with everything except the part about graphics. As an IT manager, I have a nice Sony Vaio, with a large screen built in, as my only work machine. Yes, when I sit down at my desk I have a nice large monitor, which becomes my second screen, giving me a useful two screen environment. However, In terms of video hardware, what I got is what I got, and this is the way with pretty much any laptop. Either you have shared video RAM, which is definitely a generation or more behind in performance compared to a dedicated RAM high speed card, or you have x amount of of Video RAM, which cannot be upgraded. These are almost always less RAM then you can get on the newest cards, and even if you pop for the ultimate primo top of the line king of the hill video setup for your laptop, within six months, you existing on board Video will be blown away by the latest greatest available, with no opportunity to upgrade. Add to that the fact that you only get ONE adapter on a laptop, and current technology allows you to bridge multiple GPUs for ultra-screaming performance, you are just not going to be able to get top end desktop performance on a top end laptop. When the fate of human race depends on it, a laptop just isn't going to be top line cutting edge. Only a desktop can insure the ultimate gaming experience. Now, for spreadsheets, databases, and all things boring, yea, a laptop is as good as a desktop most of the time. Better in some cases, with it's built in UPS...
ve never seen a clamshell hinge wear out, though I'm sure it's possible.
Are you kidding? Every laptop I've ever owned has had hinges that got weaker over the years. On my backup laptop, had to replace one of the hinges two years ago because it sheared off (while on vacation in Italy). The other hinge has a weak clutch, so at significant angles, the screen falls open or shut on its own. I really should replace it, but I can't easily justify dropping another $50 on a backup laptop built back in 2000. However, hinges suck pretty universally after a few years in my experience, unless of course, you replace your laptop every 2-3 years, in which case I'd imagine you would never have problems with that sort of thing. :-)
Check out my sci-fi/humor trilogy at PatriotsBooks.
That's where Apple's single, large hinge proves useful. Much, much harder to wear out or break (although my ever-clever gf managed to break one by repeatedly picking a MacBook up by its screen). Through three PowerBooks and a MacBook Pro, used every day for hours, I've never managed to break or weaken a hinge.
The flip side is that with its unique hinge Apple can't put any ports on the back of the laptop, making a sensible docking station a near-impossibility.
There are many cool and exciting new uses for laptops/PDAs/tablets, but desktops have many uses as well. For example, most computer users have a desk at home or work where they get a lot of work done: there's no need to have that computer be mobile, and desktops are CHEAPER and MORE UPGRADABLE and MORE RELIABLE.
Upgradibility in particular is a huge issue for power users and hardware enthusiasts:
By contrast, with my laptop, it takes maybe 5 minutes to replace the hard drive, and I have to mess with a bunch of fiddly little screws. To replace the RAM or optical drive I have to remove several panels and it probably takes 10-15 minutes. Replacing a MiniPCI wifi card is a huge pain and probably takes at least half an hour. And everything else simply can't be upgraded.
My bicyles
Keep that laptop off your lap. http://www.pcworld.com/article/id,118884-page,1/ar ticle.html Laptops may be the perfect gift for those id10t users who should have a little chlorine thrown in their gene pool. However until they fix the Darwin Award Winner generation issue, I think the popularity of laptops will be... muted.
The other issue is the ergonomic nightmare that is the modern laptop. http://web.mit.edu/atic/www/disabilities/rsi/lapto pergo.html Add-on devices for ergonomics defeat the portability purpose of laptops, so with increased laptop use there will be increased RSI and soon the laptop surge will lead to the "Coming Dominance of the Desktop PC" articles.
That's my take on this article.
I'm a happy pessimist. I expect and prepare for the worst, when it doesn't happen I am pleasantly surprised.
Actually, no. That only applies to things like physical construction and such, or if the program was being developed from scratch (and then it's the lowest *qualified* bidder). Things like software products or any other "ready-made" item is decided by a selection committee, and not-always (I'd even say not often) is the lowest bidder the winner. That's beside the fact that a lot of this stuff is so off the wall that you'll only get 1, maybe 2 bidders total (nobody else makes such a product), and either they both suck or you just have the 1 and can only hope it's decent.
"People who think they know everything are very annoying to those of us who do."-Mark Twain
Granted, I guess I can't really upgrade the processor. But when I get ready to do that, I think I'll just buy a new system Do you always buy a computer, or do you build a computer? If it's the former, then we're in different categories. I've never bought a computer, I've always built them, and then upgraded them sections at a time as required. Notebooks are the exception for me but only because you cannot build them, you must buy them. Granted, if I ever decided I wanted a Mac I'd have no choice but to buy one -- but if I wanted a Mac it'd be a notebook anyway. Personally I would find it wasteful from a recycling standpoint as well as a financial one to always buy a new computer when I wanted more speed/storage/whatever. Many parts can be reused several times over because they don't go obsolete as quickly as others.