Slashdot Mirror
The Desktop -- Time to Start Saying Goodbye?
Lucas123 writes "Robert Scheier at Computerworld writes that while worldwide PC shipments are expected to grow 12.2% this year, portable PC volumes are expected to grow 28% and will make up more than half of all PC shipments in the U.S. this quarter. Notebooks will dominate the worldwide PC marketplace by 2010. 'One researcher predicts it will be five to seven years before only the "die-hard" desktop users are left.'"
What about university (and other similar instituitions) provided computers with a plethora of licensed software on them... Especially for CAD and graphics, the desktop wins hands down in cost, and probably will continue to have such an advantage.
:)
Though it would be neat to see a system of renting out laptops with that sort of software. The logistics of such an approach aren't something I'd want to manage, personally though.
Another thought is the extent to which external monitors (and keyboards) will be used. Dell does have that rather new "laptop" model with the 19" screen that can act like a separate monitor. The keyboard detaches and uses bluetooth.
Even though I'm a Linux guy, the closest I've seen to a possible laptop that could replace my desktop and be feasible is the latest Macbook Pro. DX10 graphics card, plenty of RAM, solid speed, LED LCD, good battery life, Superdrive, and big hard drive.
Once I see and read the reviews of the next OS X it may be time to make that jump to all laptop.
http://teasphere.wordpress.com - A little spot of tea
I don't think its really a black and white comparison. Obviously desktops have advantages and laptops have advantages. You dont want to lug around a 22 inch screen on your laptop but for your desktop, you want that. You're not going to get the latest and greatest hardware on a laptop, but you can on a desktop. Laptops are portable and good enough for most people, but a bit pricier than desktops.
You are, of course, correct. Another way of looking at is that there are many different segments of computer purchasers. Many (most?) of those segments would benefit from the mobility of laptops and don't need the high-end features of laptops. Historically, they were stuck buying desktops because of one or more limiting factors (generally price). Now that the price/performance hurdle has been passed, those segments are now buying laptops. It's not really that peoples' needs have changes a much as it is that laptops are finally viable.
That said, my next computer will be an iMac, mainly because I already have an XP work laptop. This gives the best of both worlds, but most consumers won't have that luxury.
Agreed on the monitor... but scissor-action, laptop-style keys should have taken over the desktop a long time ago. Both faster and ergonomically more effective, because you don't have to move your fingers nearly as far for each keystroke.
There are a few scissor-action desktop keyboards out there but I'm constantly surprised they're not mainstream. Maybe the next iMac keyboard -- rumored to be based on the current MacBook keyboard -- will finally change the situation.
They're overlooking one very simple and obvious point. Ownership of a laptop does not prevent you from using a desktop and vice versa. It's only recently the laptops have become cheap enough that you can buy one before you need that money to drop on a desktop upgrade. Laptops are only catching up to desktops. I think what's more likely to happen is that people will start having two computers, a desktop and a laptop, and will use both.
Just as anecdotal, but...
I only know a couple of people who have more than one computer. Among those people (of which I'm one) there's usually one desktop, or possibly two.
Among the vast majority of my friends/acquaintances, each person only owns one computer. In every case where someone only owns one computer, it's a laptop. Many of those people had desktops five years ago. None of them does anymore.
My conclusion is that laptops are replacing desktops for those people (i.e. the vast majority) who don't need something only a desktop can do. The desktop will increasingly be relegated to the office (unless laptop volume gets so much higher that the extra cost of a laptop goes away), hobbyists, and specialized uses.
The supply of desktop parts is likely to continue also for this reason: Newer tech is easier, though more expensive, initially, to produce "large." The newest nVidia card will be big (sometimes requiring 2-slots). Only after a new design has been tested, produced, sold (recovering -some- capital) can the process of optimizing and miniaturizing begin. Yes, a manufacturer could step out-the-door with a very small, low-power, low-temp chip, but only by skipping all of the revenue they could have received by marketing earlier revisions of the tech... for the desktop, of course... And I'll be happy to buy it, handing down my previous "best card" to one of my other computers. I upgrade my best computer, and pass on the replaced part to one of my other 5 desktop machines. All my machines slowly get upgraded. The cycle takes longer when I have to buy a whole new mobo/cpu/ram/vid card (PCI-Express). But in any case, my DELL laptop is left out in the cold... becoming a relic that must be replaced in its entirety, or nearly so. Mind you, the manufactures might well prefer that incremental upgrades not happen, and that, in order to get an extra 5 fps in your FPS of choice, you must replace your entire system. However, I am comfortable that the death of the desktop would NOT be in the best interest of the consumer...
Notebooks are no good for 3D gaming, and their video is not upgradeable. That will keep the desktop from ever going away.
The Uncoveror: It's the real news.
But at this point...that's not really an answer I don't think, at least to anyone that does have higher powered requirements. At this point, it is still hard to do much to upgrade a laptop, which you can easily do with a desktop. Also, at this point, you cannot set up a laptop with the kind of hardware you can on a desktop. I've not seen many laptops where you can configure it with dual quad core processors, 16+ Gigs of ram...and what is the largest harddrive you can get on a laptop. Ok, on the last one, you can get around that maybe with external harddrives, but, if you want to process/record music, latency on that might kill you.
Sure, if you do nothing but surf the web, email...light stuff, you can get by with a laptop alone, or expand it some with a docking station (no such thing with macs?), but, for anyone wanting to do something much that requires lots of harddrive space, processor speed and ram, a laptop isn't going to cut it.
And this isn't just for the super highend CAD crew, but, lots of people are enjoying messing with video and audio files...HD stuff can require a lot of drive space, and processor/ram if you want to do things and not wait a week.
Sure laptops always seem to 'catch up' to desktops in what can be squeezed into them, but, for now,they are always behind the curve on what can be done compared to a desktop.
Light travels faster than sound. This is why some people appear bright until you hear them speak.........
A lot of businesses I go into every day...
If you buy laptops for your employees, then they have no excuse for not taking work home at night, but they still have a big keyboard and monitor at the office.
A lot of people are talking about how laptops are slower/more expensive/have smaller screens, and those are all true, but those aren't -- IMHO -- the main problems with laptops.
When I went off to college I got a laptop -- before that I had always used a desktop. It was pretty nice being able carry my computer (life) around with me. Then I slipped while going down some stairs, my laptop took a spill, and the hard drive went into a death spiral. I was able to get the data off it (and I had an older backup) but it made me realize that it probably wasn't a great idea to have such a vulnerable device for my main box. Now I have a desktop with a RAID sitting in my room. It's not going to get dropped or stolen. If I need something on it, I can ssh in. I still find my laptop very useful, but not as my main computer.
And the increased speed and reach of modern networking means that the benefit of being able to undock your computer and take it home with you is decreasing. I mean, why spend umpteen dollars on a laptop plus two docking stations and peripherals, and go through all the constant hassle of docking and undocking, and also face a significantly increased risk of a single theft completely depriving you of a computer and all your data -- when you could spend less, get two desktops and a smartphone, and keep your files synchronised over the internet?
I have come to the conclusion that today there are very few reason for a desktop.
1. Cost - but most cheap desktops are rubbish
2. Screen Size - but then most laptops allow you to run dual screens. I only use a laptop at the moment at home and believe me I love using two screens. Try this on many desktop Pcs without buying a new graphics card, unless you have an Apple that is.
3. Lack of internal upgrades - but most new desktops have smaller chassis and after a few months it will still become difficult to upgrade without changing the motherboard, essentially replacing the whole computer.
4. 3D video cards - My laptop has a reasonable video card ofr the day (it is two years old). It will not play the latest games, but then if I wanted to play games I would by an XBOX360/PS3/WII because I wouldn't have so many constant you need to upgrade issues and the basic hardware is soo much cheap.
5. The old chassis form factor is too big for the modern office.
The advantage of a laptop is a computer that takes up less space. The problem is that most of them are not very portable.
The problem will be is that the latest PDAs and Smartphones (iPhone included) that have wifi and standard web browser can easily be used to virtually control a desktop or laptop using remote desktop software, some of which is free. On this basis, I think that the large laptop will become obsolete in the next few years, to be replaced by small form desktops and larger screen PDAs.
Apple are well ahead with the MINI, IPhone and IMAC.
Our whole company has docking stations - we have nice +20" wide screen monitors (infact I have an 'active' one and then my email sits on my secondary 'passive' one, which also is used for doc management - see last sentence) The amount of patience saved by slapping my dell 820 into the docking station compared to wiring up the laptop is huge. Even with a 17" latop screen, I don't want to spend all day with low real estate on my monitor. As an added benefit we've found that larger screen space, aided by dual large monitors, actually saves us hard paper as people are more likely to review and work with electronic documents instead of printing a piece of paper and putting it on the desk next to them for reference.
A positive attitude may not solve all your problems, but it will annoy enough people to make it worth the effort.
The desktops are being replaced by laptops...and laptops are being replaced by phones/pda. So in 10 years, the only computing device anyone will own will be a phone.
(and yes, I'm kidding....maybe).
"If anything can go wrong, it will." - Murphy
(Or square meter, in some countries :)
In the 35 years that I have been a computer professional, I've observed that the form factors change very little. The computing power and storage available per square foot has gone up radically, and some new form factors have emerged -- lap top, palm top -- but the fact remains that, by and large, the "square foot" categories remain the same.
1975: Pheasant Under Glass computer rooms.
2007: Lights out server room.
1975: PDP-11/35
2007: Single rack departmental server stack.
1975: 24x80 "glass teletype" time shared VAX.
2007: desktop
1975: first "lugables" on the drawing board.
2007: lap top.
1975: HP-55 calculator
2007: Palm (or whatever they call themselves today).
The desktop will not die until the desk dies. It may change form, as the mainframe has been largely replaced by racked up servers, but the *footprint* still exists.
"The reason laptops are starting to outsell desktops is simply that the cost premium has all but disappeared."
If I were to sell my MacBook Pro to get the latest model (gaining me an upgrade from an ATI X1600 128mb to an nVidia 8600M 256mb, a newer chipset, a 2.4Ghz CPU from a 2.16Ghz CPU, and an LED backlit display), it would cost more than a recent desktop upgrade I did. This desktop upgrade was roughly $800, and got me a 2.4Ghz AMD X2 CPU (vs. a 2.0Ghz X2), a 256mb nVidia 8600GTS (vs a 128mb 6800), 4gb of RAM (vs 2gb of RAM), and a much better motherboard (an Asus M2N-Sli deluxe).
The thing is, I got to keep all the old parts of my computer as well (allowing me to trickle them down to other machines) -- unlike the laptop situation, where I have to roll along the money by selling the old one to pay the majority of the difference on the new one.
My entire desktop setup, with 24" monitor, 5.1 speakers, and a local storage of 1tb of HD space cost $500 less than my MacBook Pro (which has a much smaller monitor, crappier video card, 1/5th the HD space, slower CPU, less RAM, etc). MacBook Pros, given their specs, are within $200 of similarly equipped Dell and other name-brand laptops. No-name laptops tend to have the kind of parts I wouldn't buy (Via Unichrome chipsets, for example), so aren't in consideration.
The funny thing is that a 17 or 20" laptop has an even larger price premium -- I could easily have a 30" monitor with my setup for the same price as one of those laptops.
Name for me 1 laptop that I could buy for less than $800 CAD that would let me play Oblivion at 1920x1200 45fps with all the settings turned up. My desktop rig can do that.
This price premium you speak of seems alive and well to me!
--
Internet Explorer (n): Another bug -- that is, a feature that can't be turned off -- in Windows.
For once, this is not wacky.
Lithion Ion batteries lose capacity at a rate which is proportional to how charged they are. Leave a laptop plugged into the wall and running for 2 years with its battery pack in, and you will end up with a throughly dead battery pack.
There is an awesome chart right here that explained why I went through 2 packs so quickly. I ignornatly thought that keeping my battery "topped off" would be best for it. Wrong!
Some higher end laptops will come with either a software or hardware solution for preventing the battery from being charged too much. One model I saw prompted the user asking if they were going to leave the laptop plugged in for an extended period of time. While we can all guess exactly how well that went, the theory is sound.
Need help treating your acne? Come here!
"I'm sure you can think of some better reasons, but most of the ones you've given aren't any good..."
I beg to differ. They are excellent reasons. In fact, I don't believe either one is going to "kill" the other. Both have a permanent place in the computing world.
There are numerous applications, particularly in the 'specialized' arena, where laptops are more of a pain in the tailfeathers than an asset. One big area is the programming of land/mobile 2-way radio equipment. I've had the software for such simply refuse to work, under any conditions, with USB-to-RS232 converters yet work perfectly with a standard port.
To answer the obvious question: Updated software in this area is not always available, or practical. I still use a couple of separate desktop systems for this purpose, one for DOS-based software (yes, there's still plenty of it in some applications) and the other for Windows (2000, of course -- Neither XP nor Vista are permitted anywhere near systems that I maintain and use). You could not convince me to trade either of them out to laptops for any amount.
I also do electronic forensics, and support for 'legacy' electronic test equipment. For this, I often need to plug all kinds of oddball hardware into the systems I use as tools for such work. This includes things like GPIB/HPIB controller boards, time code generators/readers, RS485 serial boards, microprocessor and FPGA development and evaluation boards, in-circuit emulator (ICE) boxes... the list goes on.
The point I'm making is that many of those devices require full-blown host cards designed for ISA, EISA, or PCI buses. How many laptops have you seen with such?
How about a few more reasons? Let's start with display size. When was the last time you saw a laptop with a 20+ inch LCD panel? Or one that has two 20-inchers? Ever tried to draw a schematic, or design a printed circuit board, on anything less than a 20? Or perhaps hex-edit a big EPROM file? Trust me, it's painful at best, next to impossible at worst.
And keyboards? Already mentioned, I know, but let's mention it again. I learned to type on manual typewriters, and I have a very heavy touch as a result. To this day, I refuse to make long-term use of any keyboard other than the famous IBM 'clicker.' It's the only one that's proven to be durable and comfortable enough to make me happy.
Mice? Glide-pads are nice, but there's still nothing like a full-size Kensington trackball.
Laptops are good for 'On the Road.' Always have been, always will be. Desktops are good for versatility and expandability. Always have been, always will be.
Keep the peace(es).
Bruce Lane, KC7GR,
Blue Feather Technologies
There's still some challenges though to overcome - I'm hoping the Solid State drives will solve them, but presently I see most laptops have 5400rpm drives and a few higher end ones have 7200rpm drives, but none I've seen have a 10,000 rpm 2.5" drive ( do they even make them? ). That means for video editing it'll suck no matter what.
09 F9 11 02 9D 74 E3 5B D8 41 56 C5 63 56 88 C0
Almost every laptop I've ever worked on, from my Compaq LTE Elite 4/50CX to HP dv9000s, all have had removable processors. Some laptops now ship with the ability to swap graphics cards (HP nx9420/9440 and some Dell models) and that will be a norm soon enough. RAM's always been upgradable, and the wireless in many notebooks is one of two slot factors, and easily accessible in most cases. Laptops will eventually be as easy to upgrade as desktop systems, from what I've seen in my own work experience. The najor challenge is engineering the board and case just right.
Still waiting on Serviscope_minor to wake up to fucking reality and realize that Jessica Price isn't going to fuck him.