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$60 Games Are Here To Stay

Next Generation explores the price jump for 'next generation' titles, looking into the success of the $60 price point for videogames. They have a copious number of graphs and charts to support their findings: "Even without Guitar Hero II, prices in 2007 are still at historically high levels. In January, fully four of the top 10 games sold for $60 or more. In February, that jumped to five $60 games, and the average rose accordingly. While there were four $60 games in March, they shared the top 10 with two Nintendo DS games which brought the average down sharply. This happened again in March -- the month of Pokemon -- and also in May."

52 of 361 comments (clear)

  1. $50 games by Twiceblessedman · · Score: 5, Funny

    Wii games are $50 US, $60 games are not here to stay.

    1. Re:$50 games by Fozzyuw · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Wii games are $50 US, $60 games are not here to stay.

      $50 is a sweet spot for me for regular video games (PC games and Console games). $20-30 is my sweet spot for mobile games (DS, PSP). Will I pay $60+ for a game? Sure, if I really wanted to play it. But if prices start going for $60, I won't be buying as much as I use too or I'll be waiting for games to get old or become used before purchasing.

      One of the benefits of this 'new' user created mods for games, like Warcraft/Starcraft Maps, Counter-Strike, Flash Games (like ones from AddictingGames.com), I have lots of other options for games. Also, while I know lots of people who are 100% against subscription games (like MMO's), I'm pretty happy with games like LOTRO's whom I've gotten a special "pre-order" subscription price of $10/month (or $200 lifetime, which I didn't take as I generally have never played an MMO for almost 2 years straight). I'm happy with that kind of pricing. Much more happy than $15/month. Such that I'm willing to keep my subscription active even if I'm going to be MIA for most of a month. The amount of entertainment hours I get for my $ are amazing... if you considering spending $10 to see a 2-hour film at the theater and another $10 for popcorn and soda.

      Likewise, the DS is proving to be a super fun system and games prices are often very awesome at $20 for things like Brain Age 2, etc. I'm also a fan of loading Warcraft 3 back on my PC and playing some MOD games, for no monthly fees or download prices.

      With developers and gaming companies seeing the benefit of downloaded content (Wii, PS3, 360 are now all offering DL-able games, while the DS allows you to temporarily download the game from a friend to play multi-player), I hope to see future systems continue to allow more and more user created content that will give players a much cheaper option of games to play. I know there are plenty of flash games I'd enjoy just picking up and playing for a short time.

      I guess there has become a big 'casual' trend in gaming and I know I enjoy it, despite having been 'hard-core' at times (non-stop multiple day MMO gaming, Counter-Strike competitions/tourney's, etc). Probably why Nintendo's Wii strategy is really hitting the mark today.

      Cheers,
      Fozzy

      --
      "The past was erased, the erasure was forgotten, the lie became truth." ~1984 George Orwell
    2. Re:$50 games by Impy+the+Impiuos+Imp · · Score: 5, Insightful

      Meh, teleport back to the late '80's, then use your paper route money to buy a Zaxxon cartridge for Coleco for $50, or a Pole Position cartridge, with steering wheel and pedal, for $70, then get back to me.

      Adjusting for inflation, it's like $200.

      Adjusting for my buying power as a kid, it's like $34 million.

      --
      (-1: Post disagrees with my already-settled worldview) is not a valid mod option.
    3. Re:$50 games by superbus1929 · · Score: 3, Insightful

      Understood, but there's a lot less value in that $60 then there were even a few years ago. You want to put in a code to enhance your game? You can't just put in a magic code anymore, or even unlock it in some cases, you have to pay $5 - $10 for a microtransaction from a place like XBox Live (this is highly prevalent in EA games). And cheat devices have more or less been locked out (and if they're not, just wait for the lawsuits). If you want to play on XBox Live, you have to pay a fee (as opposed to what the PS2, Wii and DS do). Furthermore, some games charge a monthly fee just to be able to make them useful (Final Fantasy XI, WoW)

      I'm not against a $10 if it's JUST for the game. But when you take all that into consideration, and remember that a lot of these $60 aren't "new" games so much as "updates" (EA also comes to mind here, too), then the price increase gets worse and worse and worse.

      So yes, even though a $50 game in 1985 costs the same as $96.82 in 2007, once you take all of that into account, the price difference dissipates to the point of being nearly irrelevant.

      --
      Let's stop dilly-dallying and just change "-1: Overrated" to "-1: Disagree" or "-1: Doesn't Subscribe to Groupthink".
    4. Re:$50 games by cowscows · · Score: 4, Interesting

      I love subscription pricing. And I'll tell you why. Most games don't hold my attention more than a month or so. A few MMO's have been the exception, but I still feel like I'm getting a great deal with them. I've been playing EVE online for about a year and a half. At $15 per month, that's $270 that I've given them. That sounds like a lot, but if being distracted by EVE causes me to buy one less retail game at $50 every two months, then that's $450 worth of games I haven't paid for. Bump that up to a game every month, and you're approaching a grand.

      The flip side is, what if I found a $50 game that could keep me entertained for 18 months. Well, that'd be pretty awesome, but hasn't happened for me yet. At $60 for a game, I need to get 4 months of solid entertainment (10hr+ per week) to match the return on investment I get from an MMO(@$15/mo).

      I did, however, refuse to pay $50 up front for WoW, knowing that I'd have to pay monthly fees beyond that. That seemed ridiculous to me.

      --

      One time I threw a brick at a duck.

    5. Re:$50 games by Aneurysm · · Score: 2, Insightful

      and am not paying rent while I occupy a house my family owns

      We usually call this living in our Mums basement on Slashdot

  2. What a Revelation... by Swordsmanus · · Score: 5, Insightful

    Inflation and rising development costs result in both a higher price tag and acceptance of a higher price tag. News at 11.

    1. Re:What a Revelation... by MarkAyen · · Score: 5, Interesting

      One thing I haven't seen is consideration that $60 for a game might actually be a bargain. If I buy a $60 game, I realistically expect to get at least 50 hours of entertainment out of it, either through campaign play (Elder Scrolls IV: Oblivion), online multiplayer (Gears of War) or through exceptional replay value (Marvel: Ultimate Alliance). In some cases, I might even get considerably more value out of it.

      Compared to a great many other entertainment options, on a pure hour-per-dollar basis, videogames are a pretty good deal. (Still doesn't stack up to an afternoon at your local fine art museum, though.)

    2. Re:What a Revelation... by DataBroker · · Score: 2, Informative

      There was a significant hop in price with the XBox games. The way they structured it, the basic game was $40-50, and then the ultimate/gold/platinum/collector's edition was another $10 or $20 on top of that and included an extra level or other goody. Ads typically showed the cheaper version to get people into the store, and then offered the gold version for just a bit more.

      People at the store already spending around $50 easily justified the special-edition for only another 20%, and viola, the $60 price-point was born. Game makers saw that the public eagerly snapped up (as eagerly as at $50 at least) and reset their target to $60. The only reason I could see the extra 20% justification is that buying it at that premium includes all of the downloadable content that the basic version may buy.

      Personally, unless the title is spectacular, I wait until it hits the bargain bin ($20) and get it. Fortunately for me, I can typically get the collector's edition for the same $20 price as the basic version.

    3. Re:What a Revelation... by mh1997 · · Score: 5, Informative

      Actually, game prices are falling. In the late 80's and early 90's, I was paying US$45 per game, according to the inflation calculators that I found (http://data.bls.gov/cgi-bin/cpicalc.pl) the price is roughly US$20 cheaper today (at US$60) than then (adjusted for inflation of course).

    4. Re:What a Revelation... by KDR_11k · · Score: 2, Insightful

      EA is doing its best to raise the PC game prices to console levels, at least on the mainland. 55€ for a freaking PC game. Really, they should think about LOWERING pürices, not raising them. Games are already way too expensive for those "casual gamers" weveryone wants to sell to, the only reason 50€ looks normal to us is because we've been paying that much for ages. Compare that to CDs or DVDs.

      --
      Justice is the sheep getting arrested while an impartial judge declares the vote void.
  3. They did not go up in price, the dollar went down. by dada21 · · Score: 5, Interesting

    Prices don't go up because people are "greedy," prices go up because your government decides every day to ruin the value of your money.

    Games now have many international ties (design, programming, etc). Because the U.S. dollar is being inflated as fast as it is (and has been since 1913), more dollars means that the dollars out there are worth less, especially versus foreign currencies. This means that prices seem to cost most.

    The flipside of inflation is that some people, especially the banking elite, get the new money earlier than others -- so it is usually the middle and lower classes who are harmed with prices inflating faster than their wages do. Eventually wages DO increase because of the easy money out there, but usually it is too little, too late.

    Prices go up in any inflationary market. Prices also go up because of a limited supply for a highly-demanded item. Generally, though, in a market with a currency backed by something other than fiat/force, prices go down slowly -- soft deflation. The benefit of this is that you actually can SAVE your money and earn value on it, unlike today where even the stock market gains don't keep up with the TRUE cost of inflation.

    Sidenote: Government inflation figures are lies, plain and simple. Find some old credit card statements and see what inflation really is in your life. You may be surprised that it is 10-12% annually for the past 3-4 years.

  4. In other news by Bluesman · · Score: 4, Insightful

    $20 games that were $60 games last year here to stay too.

    --
    If moderation could change anything, it would be illegal.
  5. In other news... by Joe+U · · Score: 5, Insightful

    ....modchip sales are brisk.

  6. Inflation by DamnRogue · · Score: 4, Informative

    $50 in 1988 is equivalent to $88 now. Prices are dropping in real terms. (http://data.bls.gov/cgi-bin/cpicalc.pl)

  7. Why in my day... by casualsax3 · · Score: 4, Funny

    ... games cost $90 and we had to play them on the Sega Saturn.

    1. Re:Why in my day... by Dogtanian · · Score: 2, Funny

      ... games cost $90 and we had to play them on the Sega Saturn. I was paying over $100 for Atari 2600 games when they came out. Asteroids, Pac-man, etc. That's nothing; I paid Ada Lovelace over $4000 for some games to run on the Difference Engine before it came out, and I'm still waiting for that damn piece of hardware to hit the shops.

      (And it were uphill both ways, etc...)
      --
      "Slashdot - News and Chat Sites Deviant". (Click "homepage" link above for details).
  8. until... by Triv · · Score: 2, Interesting

    $60 games are here to stay New. If you need your fix RFN, go for it. Me, I'll wait until I can pick 'em up at my local used game store on the cheap, though that's assuming I ever get a next-gen console in the first place - the best part about the PS3 coming out was the way the prices of PS2 games sunk through the floor. I'm gettin' a lot of milage out of that.


    --Triv

  9. And this is why by Pojut · · Score: 3, Insightful

    I modded the firmware in my 360. True, I don't have Live access anymore...then again, considering I have burned roughly 20 games, I have saved about $1200...I think I will go buy a core system and spend a hundred bucks on Ebay to buy used version of the games I want on live...I've saved enough to make the purchase warrented.

    Still. I refuse to pay 60 dollars for a game (unless it is something like Bioshock or Mass Effect or Fable 2...I intend to purchase those.)

    Am I a criminal? Perhaps. Is what I'm doing morally wrong and illegal? Perhaps. Do I give a fuck? no.

    1. Re:And this is why by amuro98 · · Score: 2, Insightful

      But unlike the parent, you aren't breaking any laws by buying used games.

      For every used title, one copy was bought - the money paid to the copyright holders.

      All the owner did was transfer the license - first to GameStop, who then transfered it to you when you bought the used title from them.

      1 copy was sold, 1 copy remains in circulation. The royalties on that copy have already been paid.

      Pirating increases the number of copies in circulation without extra money being paid to the copyright holders.

  10. 3.5 years of data, I'm convinced by dctoastman · · Score: 2, Insightful

    Or we could go further back (SNES/Genesis) era and look at all of the $60+ games then.

    Hell, look at the prices for N64 games. They generally retailed for $60 new. CD based games brought the price down to $50 (new) for two generations. The better margin on distribution medium made its way into production value for games. Now development costs have finally eaten all of the margin we've gained from switching mediums and prices for games have gone up.

    As for why video games (and attendant hardware) haven't really been affected by inflation throughout the years (consoles generally debut at $300-$400) is all thanks to Moore's Law. Prices were coming down as fast as the value of the dollar.

    This is also why the PS3 is more expensive. Nintendo, and to some extent Microsoft, are leveraging Moore's Law to keep hardware prices at some level. Sony decided to go balls to the wall.

    1. Re:3.5 years of data, I'm convinced by GeckoX · · Score: 2, Informative

      OK, it's fairly expected on /. for people to misrepresent Moore's Law, but this is about the furthest from a bulls eye one can get!

      Trust me, Moore's law has absolutely ZERO to do with video game pricing. Nothing. Nada. Completely and utterly wrong.

      If you're looking at a simply reason for this complex situation, it's simply supply and demand. More consoles, more gamers, more games being sold. That is a much more likely scenario. Of course, there's also more competition right now which certainly helps immensely.

      --
      No Comment.
  11. Re:They did not go up in price, the dollar went do by Mr.+Underbridge · · Score: 5, Interesting

    Man, enough already. You've been posting this gold-standard bullshit for years, and it's never made any sense. You have no credible sources for any of this. Give it up.

    You've also posted a lot of mystical pseudoscience babble about gold. It's just a metal. Inasmuch as it has little to no innate utility to anyone, it's a substitute for actual goods of value in the same way that paper money is, or any other currency standard.

    more dollars means that the dollars out there are worth less, especially versus foreign currencies.

    Except for the obvious logical fallacy that foreign currencies have also abandoned the gold standard?

    prices go up because your government decides every day to ruin the value of your money.

    That was the only interesting thing you mentioned. Yes, money you hoard devalues at a long term average of about 4% per year. And that's a good thing - it's better for the economy to have money actively invested rather than sitting in a mattress. You'll note that time periods with low or negative inflation were times of currency crisis - because the wealthy hoarded their money and little was left in circulation to sustain the economy.

  12. Econ 101 by regular_gonzalez · · Score: 2, Insightful
    Sounds like someone needs to take a basic economics course.

    prices in 2007 are still at historically high levels
    Sure, in nominal dollars. Considering that the price has been at ~$50ish for new games for coming up on 3 decades now (excepting the average price of N64 carts, which commanded a significant premium of their own), one might instead look to the price when normalized in real dollars.
    --
    Due to circumstances beyond my control, I am master of my fate and captain of my soul.
    1. Re:Econ 101 by AKAImBatman · · Score: 5, Interesting

      Might I recommend moving beyond Economics 101 into the more daring regions of inflation vs. economics of scale? Thanks to the economics of scale, the price per unit falls dramatically even as inflation drives the price upward. The result is that there exists a "sweet-spot" where the price may remain stable. It's only through the introduction of radical new developments that prices go upward.

      Basic Market Fact: The market for video games is larger than at any previous point in history. Every generation has seen a distinct rise in the number of overall units sold. (i.e. There's more pie for the competitors to divide.)

      The Wii prices have remained stable because Nintendo is riding the economics of scale to combat inflationary costs. The XBox 360 and PS3 are so costly because they bucked these economics and embraced the cost of the disruptive HDTV technology. HDTV is at the edge of technology. It's what the CD-ROM was in the days of the 3DO. It's a high-technology item that still has limited scale to back it. Prices of the sets and microchips to support them are dropping, but not fast enough for the consoles to exist in a competitive region of scale vs. inflation.

      Thus it's a gamble: Will the consumer pay more for cutting edge video-game technology?

      The traditional market response has always been a negative. The 3DO priced itself out of a market, the Jaguar priced itself out of a market, the Saturn priced itself out of a market, the Turbo-Grafx priced itself out of a market, etc. The closest example of this trend being disrupted was the original Playstation. It was introduced to the market at $299, a full $100 more than the market was used to for new consoles. However, its price fell quickly and newer models dropped the unit cost by that much more. The majority of consoles were sold at a much lower price. The trend repeated with the PS2.

      In fact, history shows that the inferior technology often wins out. Atari 2600 v. Intellivision, NES v. Master System, SNES/Genesis v. 3DO/Jaguar, Playstation v. N64, PS2 v. GameCube/XBox, etc.

      All this adds up to bad news for overly expensive consoles. They are gambling on superior technology, but the market tends to not put much value there.

  13. $60 games are here to stay *on the shelf* by Interl0per · · Score: 4, Funny

    Fixed ;)

  14. Re:They did not go up in price, the dollar went do by dada21 · · Score: 2, Interesting

    Deflation is just as bad for an economy, possibly even worse, than inflation, because when you have deflation there's much less incentive to invest money instead of hoarding it.


    So untrue. Deflation is fine -- if you sit on your money, it doesn't become worthless. But this also gives you reason to invest properly and wisely, to get a better return than just what the deflation offers. Right now, easy credit and easy money have created all the bubbles we've experienced since 1913, including the Great Depression. All these bubbles followed by recession/depression happen because new money is printed, people spend it/invest it, causing prices to rise, giving people the idea that the investment was a good idea because "prices always go up." Eventually, people start buying MORE than they need to speculate (see, dotcom, housing bubble, etc). When there are no new speculators to sell to, the bubble pops, leaving the late buyers holding the bag. Inflation is the worst thing about economic stability ever. It has destroyed empires for thousands of years.

    Soft deflation hurts no one because you don't HAVE to invest to get a return on your money. You CAN, but you'll be safer know your investment is safe from the bubble-markets we're familiar with today. Inflation also steals from the poor, who don't have enough money to save to invest. In a slow deflation market, the poor are helped the most -- they can actually save, in hopes of investing in themselves in the future. The poor can't do that today.

    Prices should fall over time, unless there is a supply shortage of something. This is good for everyone.

  15. Re:piracy by spun · · Score: 4, Funny

    I pirate games because there's nothing like the smell of black powder wafting across your forecastle after you've laid a broadside into an EA Game heavy with gold doubloons from the Spanish main. Aaarrrr!

    --
    - None can love freedom heartily, but good men; the rest love not freedom, but license. -- John Milton
  16. Re:They did not go up in price, the dollar went do by dada21 · · Score: 2, Interesting

    If what you're saying is true:

    Fantastic questions, by the way.

    1) Why don't bond purchasers demand a higher premium (interest rate) for loaning money that's going to depreciate that fast -- and they *have* noticed that the government inflates the money supply by now.

    Mostly because past history has shown that major losses have been covered by the government through future taxes. Also, we have an entity in the U.S. called the Plunge Protection Team which uses U.S. owned assets to buy stocks ands bonds to prevent market crashes. This intervention can't last forever -- they don't have unlimited access to real assets (gold, land, etc). The PPT has been trying to keep housing funds afloat, along with U.S. manufacturers. They're slowly losing that battle, and the market will be terribly harmed.

    Look at Bear Stearns' recent bond report. One bond is now worth $0 on the dollar (yes, $0 on the dollar, their official statement). Another bond is now worth 9 cents on the dollar. These are billion dollar bonds, now worthless. Yet many of these bond issues are diversified through CDOs, which are increasingly becoming dangerous. We're talking possibly $1 trillion in CDOs that are in danger of collapse - yet the average person has no clue about it. Things could go from bad to horrific in very short order, affecting markets unrelated to the bond issues quickly.

    Over time, if the government DOESN'T intervene and bail-out the investments, then bond investors WILL demand a higher return or some sort of reserve to back up the bond. We'll see if that happens. I just checked the city and state bond issues, and some states have unfunded liabilities of over $100 billion coming up (see Florida). It's bad, really bad. They'll issue bonds based on future tax income, but they'll have to raise taxes to meet those liabilities.

    2) Name the basket of commoditiy futures I can buy that predictably appreciates at the "true" 10-12% inflation rate you claim.

    Impossible because inflationary income causes people to invest unwisely, so inflation moves from market to market. When a bubble pops, those who pulled profits out before the crash will still have all that money -- but they will take time to reinvest it to create another bubble they can profit from. How many people lost their rears in the housing crash in the 90s? All those profits taken out before the crash created the dotcom bubble -- plus new money from Greenspan's inflationary printing cycle. That crashed, hurting hundreds of thousands of late comers, but the profits that were taken out (including all that newly printed money) still existed in someone's pocket -- someone who invested in home builders and land. As that money flooded housing, and the new money that Bernanke created came in too, housing went crazy. Housing is crashing now massively, but the early profit takers got out with billions, if not trillions. That money still exists, and it is now flooding into the stock market -- causing new bubbles waiting to burst.

    I know a lot of friends, family and customers who are rallying on the stock market, not realizing that many companies that are growing in dollar price are NOT profitable -- it is just old and new money flooding into the market to create a new bubble. Those who exit early will make a ton of profit, but they'll leave the bag held by all the suckers who saw all that money and figured they could get rich, too.

    The rich get richers, the poor and middle class get poorer -- thanks to inflation.

  17. Re:They did not go up in price, the dollar went do by UbuntuDupe · · Score: 2, Interesting

    Mostly because past history has shown that major losses have been covered by the government through future taxes. Yes, that explains why bond purchasers are sure they'll get the promised money back. It doesn't explain why they're so willing to lend at *negative* inflation-adjusted rates, and it was your claims about inflation that I was objecting to. In other words, you've explained the absence of a credit premium, but not an inflation premium.

    Impossible because inflationary income causes people to invest unwisely, so inflation moves from market to market. ... That doesn't matter. If you're correct about 12% inflation, you should be able to look at a time history of commodities and say, "okay, this basket, which represents a typical consumers weighting of purchases in their budget, appreciated at about 12%/year". And then I can hold that basket, which would appreciate 12% in the aggregate, regardless of which sector inflation hit. On the other hand, if you don't think there's such a basket that represents consumer spending AND appreciates at 12%, then you agree that consumer prices haven't inflated as you claim.
  18. Re:Greatest Hits by razablade · · Score: 2, Informative

    Actually I just bought a Greatest Hits title for the 360 yesterday. $30. So yes, they do exist.

    --
    The expression is "I could NOT care less." Think about it.
  19. Re:Greatest Hits by MarkAyen · · Score: 2, Informative
  20. Re:They did not go up in price, the dollar went do by Red+Flayer · · Score: 2, Insightful

    Right now, easy credit and easy money have created all the bubbles we've experienced since 1913, including the Great Depression. All these bubbles followed by recession/depression happen because new money is printed, people spend it/invest it, causing prices to rise, giving people the idea that the investment was a good idea because "prices always go up."
    You conveniently leave out the causes of the depressions and bubbles that occurred prior to the great depression (hint: speculation does not require fiat currency to occur).

    The boom-bust cycle is nothing new, and not a product of inflation. Inflation is part of the boom-bust cycle.

    As for the printing of new money being the cause of today's inflation, that's false. The increasing money supply today is dominated by credit offerings, not by currency.

    As for deflation being bad for the economy, I'll agree with you. There were a couple studies recently released indicating that recessions rarely follow deflationary cycles. Then again, it's not surprising -- what follows a deflationary cycle is a recovery, typically.

    However, all else said, I'll go out on a limb and say that over time, the boom-bust cycle is healthy. It promotes advancement during boom cycles, then weeds out the weak during bust cycles. In the long run, the boom-bust cycle promotes technological advances that result in increased standard-of-living across the board. The key is to mitigate the bust cycles so that the economy doesn't collapse.
    --
    "Trolls they were, but filled with the evil will of their master: a fell race..." -- J.R.R. Tolkien on Olog-hai
  21. Re:They did not go up in price, the dollar went do by Drake42 · · Score: 3, Insightful

    Are You F**KING NUTS?

    The dot com bubble happened because of INFLATION? The dot com bubble made Many Many Many people wealthy, and kept the economy going for quite a few years. Then the charlatans became too common and the economy corrected. Inflation had ZERO to do with it. Over eager investment in stupid ideas is why the bubble burst.

    House is the exact same thing. Stupid investors bought bad investments because they thought they could. Good for the sellers. Good for for me who fixed up and flipped two houses and then got the hell out of the market. For a while the cheap money helped a lot of people. Then people got stupid and it had to stop. That has absolutely nothing to do with inflation. That has to do with human nature and emotional purchasing.

    A boom/bust cycle is NORMAL and HEALTHY. Every thing in the world is cyclical. If you have no cycle, you have no growth period and no correction period. If there is no cycle, the economy becomes stagnant and unless you already have money there is no way to earn good money. Sitting on my cash in the hopes that deflation will cause its value to grow slowly is a great plan to avoid risk and an even better plan to avoid reward.

    In a cyclic economy the bulls make money, the bears can make money and the pigs get slaughtered.
    In a flat non-boom/bust economy only the pigs who already have money can make money and anyone who wants to make money either through working hard or through buying smart has no opportunity to do either.

    Don't be a dogma-quoter. Use your brain about what caused something to happen.

  22. Re:piracy by lpangelrob · · Score: 2, Funny

    Sid Meier, be that you???

  23. Re:They did not go up in price, the dollar went do by Kelbear · · Score: 4, Interesting

    The standard economist line is not that inflation is good, nor that is bad, it is just inflation.

    If I give you 1 dollar and want my value back at the end of the year with 4% inflation, then I need 1.04(I'd probably want some sort of a return for depriving myself of the use of the dollar, but for simplicity we can leave that out).

    If actual inflation is 5%, I lost value, because to get my value back I should get 1.05, so if inflation goes up, the receiver of a loan wins.

    If actual inflation is 3%, I gained value, because I really only needed to get 1.03, so if inflation goes down, the lender of a loan wins.

    Inflation is bad because it makes it hard for 2 parties to agree on a mutually beneficial exchange when uncertainty is introduced like this. They can plan on an equal exchange, and then inflation risk can fuck it up.

    Deflation is the same, it's just smaller numbers but the same effect. If the value is dropping at unpredictable rates, it stunts business because the 2 parties can't depend on a fair exchange. The information of knowing it will be stable is important to efficient resource distribution and investment in an economy.

    So what is important is not inflation or deflation, what is important is how much variance is in the inflation or deflation.

    Inflation makes the number bigger, deflation makes it smaller. But as long as the percentage of change is steady and predictable, it has no effect on the exchange in value. However, large inflation numbers tend to carry more variance, while low numbers are more stable. So that's the job of the Fed. To fight inflation so that business people can do their thing without worrying about instability fucking up the exchange they're negotiating.

    Some say some small inflation is good, because it keeps pace with the growth of actual value in the country. GDP(just one of several measurements of a nation's value) for example, for the U.S it's been growing around 2-4%, so to keep the right amount of money flowing to represent this increase of gross domestic product, the idea is to keep the amount of money growing at 2-4%. Not everyone agrees with this, I don't see maintaining the speed of money circulation(How fast 1 dollar circulates) is worth intentionally keeping a level of inflation(Wouldn't the value of money change appropriately to adjust for changes in the speed of money circulation?)

    However, a gold standard is just a different form of currency. Now a nation's currency growth rate is tied to...mining rocks? The currency itself is worthless, it's the value behind the currency that matters. A gold standard wouldn't help combat this fluctuation, it just ties it to a different fluctuation, mining. The real goal here is to keep the value stable, which is what the fed should do. They're trying to keep it steady at the current value, which is fine if they can pull it off. I'd be happier if they kept it steady at 0% inflation.

    The more pressing issue is trade deficit. Inflation should be moderated by the Fed as it is currently. I don't like the idea of upsetting this tender balance. As much as I agree with many of Ron Paul's stances, abolishing the Fed for a gold standard is a dealbreaker since I believe it would bring little good to the country, while potentially wreaking catastrophic results. Another global Great Depression sort of catastrophe.

    My explanation is rough, I know, but hopefully someone else can clarify this better than I.

  24. Re:They did not go up in price, the dollar went do by dada21 · · Score: 4, Interesting

    You conveniently leave out the causes of the depressions and bubbles that occurred prior to the great depression (hint: speculation does not require fiat currency to occur).

    No, I didn't. The Federal Reserve went on a massive inflationary credit/money creation spree from 1924 to 1929. This easy money gave everyone, even the shoe shiners, a huge increase in the value of the stock markets. But it was that easy money that made the stock markets rise, not actual increased profitability of companies invested. In 1924, a few early investors had early access to the new easy credit. The stock markets ticked up, and as that new money trickled down into the economy, more and more people invested -- causing the market to swell artificially even more so. The Fed did nothing but create more and more credit, which flew into the stock market pushing it higher and higher. Government inflation caused the market to bubble. The Fed tried to control the market boom by restricting that easy money, so those who were holding the stocks (namely, a decent portion of the population) had no one to sell to -- no more easy credit meaning no one else to buy those stocks. Quickly people sold off stocks, but the banks were restricted in paying out deposits because the Fed was trying to deflate the currency base.

    The Fed caused the Great Depression.

    The boom-bust cycle is nothing new, and not a product of inflation. Inflation is part of the boom-bust cycle.

    I'm amazed people give you any trust or value, honestly. Inflation causes the boom-bust cycle as I easily explained in this post and in previous ones in the same threads. Inflation, the creation of money, gives people false indicators of a growing market. In a free market, stocks go up in value because they either pay more dividends, or because the company is truly worth more money now or in the near future. In an inflationary economy, stocks go up usually because another sucker used easy credit/money to buy stocks from a previous sucker, at a higher price. That's boom-bust. It is NOT part of a healthy economy.

    I'll go out on a limb and say that over time, the boom-bust cycle is healthy. It promotes advancement during boom cycles, then weeds out the weak during bust cycles. In the long run, the boom-bust cycle promotes technological advances that result in increased standard-of-living across the board. The key is to mitigate the bust cycles so that the economy doesn't collapse.

    Society blossomed during a stable currency base during the Industrial Revolution. Why? Companies and individuals found ways to become more efficient, introduce more products and services to the market, and reduce prices for everyone (deflation). This happened pre-fed, during a strong dollar that didn't fall more than a few percent in value over 150 years. The dollar has lost 98% of value since 1913, because of inflation/the Fed. In a strong dollar economy, people still create, but do so wisely because they find profitability in efficiency or new inventions. In an inflationary economy, companies sell nothing or junk (dotcom, housing) because they have easy access to easy credit, used to fool foolish investors.

  25. Re:They did not go up in price, the dollar went do by moosesocks · · Score: 3, Insightful

    Call me crazy, but the grandparent poster doesn't mention the gold standard once in his post.

    He does mention that our economy is inflating somewhat rapidly, which can be very easily verified by taking a look at some graphs plotting the exchange rates for US dollars.

    Whether or not this is an explicitly bad thing is a subject of debate. From what I understand, inflation is generally considered to be a good thing in small amounts, and that the US is on the brink of passing the cusp of these "small amounts".

    Take a look at what happened in Argentina. Their currency became worthless almost overnight due to poor economic practices (nothing to do with the gold standard).

    The grandparent poster then draws a bunch of conclusions from the assumption that the dollar is inflating, all of which appear pretty sound in the context of other economic inferences. If the dollar's worth less, as in any economic disaster, the people with the least money are obviously going to be the most affected. Because people have to eat, wages will then hopefully rise to try and catch up.

    --
    -- If you try to fail and succeed, which have you done? - Uli's moose
  26. Re:They did not go up in price, the dollar went do by Opportunist · · Score: 3, Funny

    But energy can neither be created or destroyed, how can it be inflated?

    (That's what you get for discussing economy with geeks...)

    --
    We used to have a Bill of Rights. Now, with the rights gone, all we have left is the bill.
  27. Premium prices on premium products, film at 11... by dazedNconfuzed · · Score: 4, Insightful

    I pay $5 or less for my games. No hurry to get the latest, so wait until the price drops to what I'm willing to pay. "XIII", "Max Payne", "Oni", etc. are suitably entertaining, engaging, and cost less than lunch at McDonald's.

    You want the latest? You are willing to pay $60 for the latest? Then, supply-and-demand, retailers will charge you what you're willing to pay for what you want - and that, for the collective "you", is working out to about $60.

    Go figure.

    --
    Can we get a "-1 Wrong" moderation option?
  28. And in even more news... by 7Prime · · Score: 2, Funny

    Freeware games are here to suck.

    --
    Multiplayer Gaming (defined): Sitting around, discussing single-player games with my friends, at the bar.
  29. Re:They did not go up in price, the dollar went do by Red+Flayer · · Score: 2

    Call me crazy, but the grandparent poster doesn't mention the gold standard once in his post.
    He's still getting at the same thing, however. "Inflation is evil and it's the evil fed that does it."

    The extension is that fiat currency is to blame, and that the gold standard would solve the problem. However, since he's been lambasted so much for his crackpot theories in re: the gold standard, he no longer refers to it by name in his posts.
    --
    "Trolls they were, but filled with the evil will of their master: a fell race..." -- J.R.R. Tolkien on Olog-hai
  30. Why some inflation is good... by alexhmit01 · · Score: 4, Interesting

    If inflation is 0% (stable pricing), then I am indifferent between buying something now or in a year, as my money is worth the same. If there is a small amount of deflation, I have an incentive to sit on my money, because it will be worth more in a year... If I get 2% by putting it in my coffee can, why not wait when things are cheaper. With small inflation (2%-4%), there is a reason to spend now (money becomes worth less in a year).

    Basically, small inflation forces people to either spend their money, or save it in interest returning investments, or invest it... you can't sit on it. Small deflation causes people to sit on their money. If you look at the cyclical nature of the computer industry, the fact that the computer industry is deflationary has caused all those hiccups. For consumer goods, the built up supply chains of distribution work fine... doesn't matter if it takes 3-4 weeks to get the shampoo from the factory to the store to your home, nobody loses money... recently companies have gotten so good at just-in-time manufacturing, that they decided to worry about this, NOT because of deflation and collecting less money at the end, but because the finance department realized that the "inventory" that they are shipping around uses working capital (if I carry $20m in inventory, that is $20m that I am either borrowing or not investing, so there is a "cost" of the inventory). However, in the computer industry, Dell was the first to move to just-in-time, and decimated everyone... not because of carrying costs which are small, but computers deflate at 2% a month or so, so if it took two months to get the product there, they lost 4% of the value in the channel.

    Basically, small inflation is devastating, because it means that the "real" risk free rate is negative. If expected inflation is 3%, and people expect a 2% rate of return for 0-risk, then the nominal interest rate for treasury bills is 5%. If inflation rises to 4%, then the interest rate foes to 6%, with no major change. If instead we get 3% deflation, then the "interest rate" SHOULD become -1% (-3% deflation + 2% required rate of return = -1%)... Now, who would buy a bond for -1%? Instead the money sits in the mattress. As a result, you might see an interest rate of 1% or 2%, but that means that the real interest rate is 4%.

    A higher real interest rate means that people require a higher return for "risk," which means that bond yields go up (making it more expensive for companies to borrow money, which means that they don't invest as much in growth. It means that stock prices go down, because stock price today = NPV(future returns), and the higher the interest rate, the lower the NPV.

    Basically, deflation => higher REAL interest rates => slower economic growth, plus deflation => lower expenditures while people hoard cash => slower economic growth. Deflation is VERY bad. Look at Japan's long recession, they couldn't get out of the cycle, because once you lower the interest rates to 0%, there is nowhere to go. When the US economy went into recession, the Fed was able to lower rates from 5.25% to 1%, which sped up the economy. The reason they moved it up so fast, they were scared that if another attack happened or something else slowed the economy, they had nowhere to move, they COULDN'T lower interest rates more, which meant severe recession or depression to fix things.

    The Fed's ability to affect rates lets them tweak the economy. The tweaking works fine in normal conditions (moving between 3% and 5% GDP growth is manageable, once you get outside that range, the interest rate can't control it). The American people like to know that each year they will generally be a little better off. In the late 90s, you had red hot growth, which everyone enjoyed, but when the economy slowed to absorb those gains, people decided that a mild recession was a severe depression.

    Look at the housing market, people expected 4%-5% growth, inflation + 1%, and while they enjoyed the 10%-20% growth while it lasted, it forced people into doing stupid moves to get ahead of the game... Now prices drop 2%-4% in a year, a minor fluctuation, and people are talking about a market collapse.

  31. $50 games on the Odyssey 2! by Chordonblue · · Score: 2, Insightful

    $50 is CHEAP! At least I think so. Look, before any of that cheat code / mod stuff they were charging in upwards of $50 a game. In fact, I remember visiting my local Magnavox dealer back in 1978 as a kid (I owned an Magnavox Odyssey 2 console and often, the Mag dealers were the only place you could obtain the games). No game ever came out under $49.99 (in specific I remember 'Thunderball' - a 3K game - cost $49.99) and when the Challenging Series was released, some of those games were $79.99!

    Now last year, I GLADLY paid $70 for Half Life 2 and did not regret it. It was certainly worth that to me. But the price will always come down over time - it was true in the 70's, it's true now - and HL2 can be obtained for about half that now. A year after 'Thunderball' was released, it was down to $29.99 too.

    Maybe it's the cost of the media against the cost of the actual creation of the game. Back in the day it was ONE GUY who did it all, but the media costs were very high. Now there are programming teams - sometimes numbering in the 100's of people. Games will go for whatever the market can bear. Apparently, it can bear around $60 for a game on average.

    --
    "...Well, there's egg and bacon; egg sausage and bacon; egg and spam; egg bacon and spam; egg bacon sausage and spam..."
  32. Re:They did not go up in price, the dollar went do by uncreativeslashnick · · Score: 2, Insightful

    If you watch the trends in currency exchange, you'll notice that the dollar has been losing roughly 10% per year to the euro and pound.

    This is all well and good, but it doesn't measure inflation. Inflation is measured by how much the dollar buys in goods and services, not by how much it buys in other people's currency. The euro, etc. is also subject to inflation/deflation, and the currency market is also influenced by other pressures (i.e. our national debt, price of oil, the wars we are engaged in, etc). You're basically introducing a set of entirely new variables when you try to measure one currency against another.

    The parent poster is correct. The only people who gain from deflation are people with lots of money piled up. Anyone with debt actually does well with modest inflation - you pay down the debt with money that is worth less than the money you originally got from the lender. Of course, you don't want runaway inflation, like Argentina, but there's no evidence of that such a thing is anywhere in our near future.

    The Fed actually does a surprisingly good job at regulating our economy, and I'm shocked that a government agency can actually be that effective. Consider, we've had no economic depression since the 1930's, and aside from the Carter stagflation debacle of the 70's, no real sustained economic downturns.

  33. More like a revolution... by rmdyer · · Score: 3, Interesting

    ...of money for the software industry.

    Ok, I'll give you that, but can you explain why this is the opposite trend in the PC hardware industry?

    Case in point, in 1992 I ordered what was then a top of the line PC:

              * 486 - 66 MHz / 8 Meg memory
              * 240 Meg hard drive.
              * No CDROM
              * No sound card.
              * No networking or modem.
              * Diamond Stealth 64 video card (Vesa local bus)
              * Cheap case with floppy.
              * 14 inch VGA muti-sync monitor.
              * Mouse/keyboard.
              * $2,500.00

    This past Sunday 7/26 I just purchased my new baby:

              * Intel D975XBX2 (Bad AXE) mobo with a load of stuff on board.
                    http://www.intel.com/products/motherboard/D975XBX2 /index.htm
              * Intel QX6700 (Core 2 quad core 2.66GHz)
              * 850 Watt SLI power supply.
              * EVGA GeForce 8800GTX 768Meg video card.
              * 4 Gig DDR2 800 MHz RAM (PC2 6400).
              * 320 Gig SATA 7200 RPM drive.
              * Lian-Li PC1200B II case.
              * 20X CD/DVD burner SATA.
              * Windows Vista Ultimate.
              * $2,800.00

    Please tell me why inflation and rising development costs didn't have an effect on these prices?

    As an engineer I can tell you that moving from the hardware technology of 1992 to 2007 was also "a lot of work" and required "a lot of resources" and "a lot of money". Yet based on inflation, I got a system that just crushed the older one into the ground.

    Hmmm...

    1. Re:More like a revolution... by king-manic · · Score: 3, Interesting

      ..of money for the software industry.

      Ok, I'll give you that, but can you explain why this is the opposite trend in the PC hardware industry?

      Case in point, in 1992 I ordered what was then a top of the line PC:

                          * 486 - 66 MHz / 8 Meg memory
                          * 240 Meg hard drive.
                          * No CDROM
                          * No sound card.
                          * No networking or modem.
                          * Diamond Stealth 64 video card (Vesa local bus)
                          * Cheap case with floppy.
                          * 14 inch VGA muti-sync monitor.
                          * Mouse/keyboard.
                          * $2,500.00

      This past Sunday 7/26 I just purchased my new baby:

                          * Intel D975XBX2 (Bad AXE) mobo with a load of stuff on board.
                                      http://www.intel.com/products/motherboard/D975XBX2 /index.htm
                          * Intel QX6700 (Core 2 quad core 2.66GHz)
                          * 850 Watt SLI power supply.
                          * EVGA GeForce 8800GTX 768Meg video card.
                          * 4 Gig DDR2 800 MHz RAM (PC2 6400).
                          * 320 Gig SATA 7200 RPM drive.
                          * Lian-Li PC1200B II case.
                          * 20X CD/DVD burner SATA.
                          * Windows Vista Ultimate.
                          * $2,800.00

      Please tell me why inflation and rising development costs didn't have an effect on these prices?

      As an engineer I can tell you that moving from the hardware technology of 1992 to 2007 was also "a lot of work" and required "a lot of resources" and "a lot of money". Yet based on inflation, I got a system that just crushed the older one into the ground.

      Hmmm...


      Look at the quality of hardware. A computer circa 1990 would be heavy, lots of metal, durable, and ussually higher quality in the materials and workmanship. Today Computers are flimsy, have the same or higher fail rate, and are made from elss material with poorer workmanship.

      In general the same thing happening to Cars happen to Computers. They are cheaper because manufacturing advances have dropped the cost of manufacturing. They are also flimsier and generally less well made. They may contain better technology but the amoutn of effort and resources that go into one has been reduced thus the price has been reduced. A common consumer grade car has gone down in price after adjustment for inflation over it's corresponding version 40 years ago. Ditto with computers, although the rate of change is greater.

      --
      "There are more things in heaven and earth, Horatio, than are dreamt of in your philosophy."
    2. Re:More like a revolution... by Froboz23 · · Score: 2, Funny

      Ah, but running Windows Vista Ultimate on your new machine will throttle the performance back down to 486 levels. That's why the prices are similar.



      Sorry, I couldn't resist.

      --
      Take off every Sig. For great justice.
    3. Re:More like a revolution... by gad_zuki! · · Score: 2, Interesting

      Wow, you couldnt be more wrong. More tin? Its called economies of scale and mass production. Trying to buy that exact 486 system new nowadays would run millions as youd have to pay to run the factories and molds and such to get someone to produce it. All they are making are modern technology.

      Not to mention the "things were better then" nonsense is idealization of the past. As someone with various machines in the 80s I can honestly tell you they built them like mass-produced crap then too.

    4. Re:More like a revolution... by RzUpAnmsCwrds · · Score: 3, Interesting

      In general the same thing happening to Cars happen to Computers. They are cheaper because manufacturing advances have dropped the cost of manufacturing. They are also flimsier and generally less well made.


      You have no idea what you're talking about. Look at the amount of scheduled maintenance for a car from the 70s vs a car today. Look at the fit and finish of the components. Look at their reliability.

      There's nothing "less well made" or "flimsier" about today's cars. Compare a Corolla from 2000 to a Corolla from 1980. Or a Five Hundred from today to the Galaxie 500 from 1968.

      It's not unusual to go 100,000 miles today without any major maintenance (beyond oil/oil filters/air filters/tires) and no major mechanical problems. Such an occurence was a rare thing with cars from the 60s or 70s.

      Having more steel doesn't make a car "better made".
  34. Re:They did not go up in price, the dollar went do by Red+Flayer · · Score: 2

    Bubbles are government-created, always.
    False again. I'll chase your blatant flasehoods throughout the entire thread, because your misinformation is ridiculous. How about the Tulip bubble? The land bubble of the 1730s? Neither were govnerment created.

    In a slow deflation economy, you have two choices: sit on your money until you want/need to spend it, or invest it in something that has a higher risk but may have a higher reward. In a high inflation economy as we've lived in since 1913, you have two choices: sit on your money and let it inflate to worthlessless, or invest it in a risky venture that may only be "profiting" because other suckers with easy credit are also investing there.
    False dichotomy. Prudent investing is always possible. However, in a deflationary economy, there is an inequality that rewards those who hoard cash rather than investing.

    The truth is that in an inflationary economy, there is a tax on saving. However, speculation is not the only investment strategy (and according to most wise investors, a very poor stretegy). Wise investment strategy includes investing in certain ventures based on real product. Consider IBM, for exmaple -- people invest in blue-chips like IBM because stick price is relatively stable but dividends are high. If what you say about an inflationary economy was true, no one would invest in IBM since it's not high-risk, high-reward. Yet funnily, it consistently returns above inflation. Did you forget that inflation affects returns on investments as well as the value of saved funds?
    --
    "Trolls they were, but filled with the evil will of their master: a fell race..." -- J.R.R. Tolkien on Olog-hai
  35. Re:They did not go up in price, the dollar went do by fractoid · · Score: 2, Interesting

    I read a definition of 'wealth' (in Rich Dad, Poor Dad, actually *) that was along the lines of 'the number of days you could live at your current comfort level without going broke, if you quit your job'. For most of us, that's a negative number, since so many people are in debt. He made the distinction between being rich (having lots of money), and being wealthy (having assets which, passively or actively, increase your net worth over time).

    * This book was great up to the point where the author reveals how he actually got rich in the first place, going to mortgage foreclosure auctions and ripping off unfortunate families, to the tune of tens of thousands of dollars. The guys a vulture. If that's what it takes to turn a quick buck, I'm all for staying poor.

    --
    Rampant carbon sequestration destroyed the Dinosaurs' tropical paradise. I'm here to help repair the damage.