Humans Can Still Out-Bluff Machines
Pcol writes "The New York Times reports that in a poker game this week between man and machine, a program called Polaris fought a close match, but lost to two well-known professional poker players. Designing a poker playing algorithm is a different and more difficult challenge for software designers than chess and checkers because of uncertainties introduced by the hidden cards held by each player and difficult-to-quantify risk-taking behaviors such as bluffing. The game-tree approach doesn't work in poker because in many situations there is no one best move and a top-notch player adapts his play over time, exploiting his opponent's behavior. Polaris build a series of "bots" that have differing personalities or styles of play, ranging from aggressive to passive. Researchers monitored the performance of three bots and then moved them in and out of the lineup like football players."
In poker you have a finite number of cards, that are a lot smaller than the permutation of moves in chess or checkers. Just the ability to count cards and do statistical analysis makes poker, blackjack, etc easier to compute in my opinion. Then again, if you had a deck of random cards and not a standard deck, that would make it a bit harder but that's not how it's really played. That would be like comparing it to chess with all queens.
let's see how well those computers do in strip poker!
Bite my shiny metal ass.
I got the impression from some of the news stories that two professional poker players barely beat out the machine.
I have a sneaking suspicion that, for the vast majority of players, the computer is gonna kick your ass quite handily.
For the same reasons, I suspect that everyone who wasn't at the level of Kasparov would have gotten their asses handed to them in a game of chess against older versions of computers which couldn't yet beat him.
This, of course, begs the question of how long it will take for the on-line casinos to start putting poker playing bots into the mix to skew the odds even further to the house. I mean, if you have a computer program which will beat everyone else, why not just dial it down so it only wins 30% of the time or so and nobody will be any wiser.
Cheers
Lost at C:>. Found at C.
The implication here is that there is no (known) equilibrium mixed strategy for bluffs (because if there were then Polaris could be coded to use it).
Is that really true?! It seems very counterintuitive.
Certainly there's nothing special in general about games involving bluff. One of Von Neumann's first game theory case studies involved a simplified version of poker precisely to demonstrate how to automate bluffing.
There were ten "bots"; which bot was in use was controlled by a "coach" program. They actually ran three different programs over the course of the tournament, and that setup actually lost to the humans. The coach / agent approach is an interesting one for a variety of reasons, and it is most definitely a valid strategy.
I think that it'll probably stay this way for a while - man beats machine, altho as been talked about before when someone got beat in chess by one. I can't remember the name of it, but I'm sure others know. I'll be impressed once computers can out-think human beings totally.
The researchers didn't choose which bots were used themselves - they had ANOTHER 'coach' bot that moved the 'player' bots in and out.
paintball
Dealer: My deal..
Eliza: What does that suggest to you?
Dealer: It suggests I'm giving you your cards.
Eliza: We can talk about me later. Now back to you...
Guest: Here you go.
Eliza: So you feel I go...
Guest: Um.. yeah. How many cards do you want?
Eliza: What else comes to mind when you ask that?
Dealer: You need to give me whatever cards you want to exchange.
Eliza: I see. Tell me more.
Dealer: Um.. so you can get a better hand?
Eliza: We were discussing you--not me.
Dealer: Do you have any interest in playing this game?
Eliza: Oh, I have any interest in playing this game?
Dealer: That's it, I quit! Go find someone else to torture!
Eliza: That would't help much, now, would it?
Slashdot Burying Stories About Slashdot Media Owned
Games with imperfect information. Very hard to design good AI to play these games, as the story says, tree search is not a win here. A game like stratego also has concepts that go beyond individual piece movement, i.e. you may want to group an few pieces together to make an attack, moving the unit (subject to input from the enemy) forwards. I have yet to see a good stratego game, there is one for $ called "The General". It can be defeated quite easily. I have found a stratego game in the past that could *not* be defeated! But, some sleuthing on my part (via saving the game and restoring it at key points) showed the sw was cheating by moving its pieces around to adjust to the threats(!). I have had an obsession with this style of AI but its such a daunting problem its hard to get a good handle on where to start to chip away at it. I suspect the polaris folks have been doing just this, the AI and methods they develop would be useful for other games I am sure.
H.
Poker has elements of chance. Chess does not. You can play the odds to help minimize the risk of chance, but it's still there. That one two or even 5 games resulted in a win for side A versus side B is pretty much meaningless. With chance involved you really need to conduct this sort of experiment over thousands, if not millions of games, to even begin to get a handle on if there really is a "better" player in the computer code.
You can flip a coin 5 times and all 5 might be heads... doesn't mean that heads will always win. That's chance. That's poker, even if the pros and the weekend wannabes try to argue otherwise.
Would be nifty if the bot's had access to environmental sensors like a camera so it could do facial recognition on the people to detect twitching, detect very little sweating, excess heat coming off body, things to interpret lying. Just an idea, and not *that* far fetched.
Keep in mind these bots play Limit hold'em, where the size of the bets is fixed. No-limit hold'em, the kind you typically see on tv is a much more complex problem - size of bets add more potentially misleading information and more choices to make. (that's why its more exciting to watch than limit)
I'd like to reaffirm my loyalty for this country and its human president. They may not be perfect but they're the best we've got. For now.
If your theory is different from practice, then your theory is wrong.
The format also eliminated one of the crucial aspects of traditional poker called the tell, subtle clues such as facial ticks that may permit other players to make accurate guesses about the hidden cards held by their opponent. Isn't this like facing world's best soccer player and the computer in a match of Fifa Soccer 2007?
So in a sense the computer wasn't really playing anyhow. I suspect that deciding which bots to move in and out is another skill that humans are better at than computers.
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That's what they want you to think.
Look at the first entry (bottom of page) on the Polaris team's blog for the second day. The day that the humans started winning:
e /Live/Day2Session1/
http://www.cs.ualberta.ca/~games/poker/man-machin
The U of A team gave the humans the logs of the first two games!
Perhaps after the entire match they could have reviewed the game logs, however this give the humans an unfair advantage during the second day. I can't believe that this isn't getting more attention -- they bascially gave the human team a huge insight into the inner workings, strategy, and tendencies of their opponent. Something that Polaris definitely did not have.
In my opinion this sours the competition and completely invalidates the final two matches. The human likely found a weakness (or two or three) and exploited it, and we can't know for sure that they would have found the weakness without those logs.
That was a huge mistake by the U of A team, and they have apparently got away with it without anyone noticing.
Looking at the latest RSS feed, I see two interesting stories:
"Firefox and IE Still Not Getting Along" and "Humans Can Still Out-Bluff Machines".
Has /. reached a point where there is no new news at all? I can see the headlines now. "Time Still Moving At Rate of 1 Second Per Second", "Iran Still Located In Middle East", "Sun Still Rising In The East".
So the post isn't just off-topic, consider the disadvantage the human player is put to when faced with a computer, especially one well-versed in reading physical indicators of psychological factors. Surely they would have no hints whatsoever at what the computer is attempting to do? If there's a kind of one-on-one poker, would that make any difference? Would both sides be at equal disadvantages, would the computer still lose?
If you want to play a video game against the predecessor to Polaris (named Poki), it's the AI used by the cross-platform poker game 'Stacked'.
/* Design for computer poker player. Some implementation details missing. */
;
; ;
;
;
;
#include <stdio.h>
#include <poker.h>
int main() {
printf("Hello, world. I am a poker-playing robot. Prepare to lose your shirt.\n")
while (!win_poker_game()) {
printf("Curses! Another game, human?"\n")
}
printf("Ha ha!\n")
(void)rake_in_chips()
return(0)
}
Sancitmonious tripe. Those who lose money from poker do so voluntarily
so its a a form of entertainment they pay for. Professional poker
players are no more a leach on society than opera singers.
http://rareformnewmedia.com/
Father explains the statistics of roulette to his son.
He shows how in the long run, all players will lose to the casino.
His son nods and nods with his explanation. At the end,
the father said, "Well son, have you learn anything from this lession?"
"Yes indeed. I'm going to open a casino when I grow up!"
That's the way I would expect a poker player to think about things.
Or, perhaps, you are not really that analytical, but you want us to think you are. Hmm...