Police Data-Mining Done Right

enharmonix writes "Courtesy of Bruce Schneier, it's nice to hear something good about data mining for a change: predicting and stopping crime. For example, police in Redmond, VA, 'started overlaying crime reports with other data, such as weather, traffic, sports events and paydays for large employers. The data was analyzed three times a day and something interesting emerged: Robberies spiked on paydays near cheque cashing storefronts in specific neighbourhoods. Other clusters also became apparent, and pretty soon police were deploying resources in advance and predicting where crime was most likely to occur.'"

Comments

That's some fine police work, Lou.

[Treskin]

Do they really need to spend thousands of dollars analyzing data to determine there's more crime around check-cashing stores on paydays?

Re:That's some fine police work, Lou.

[GregPK]

I think thats just one thing that showed up on the radar. Something that someone may intuitively know may not be listened to by others without data to back it up. Things like they don't need to enforce traffic as much during foggy days because traffic is going slower already.

Re:That's some fine police work, Lou.

[heinousjay]

That was one example, probably selected because it doesn't give much away.

Still, I have to congratulate you. This just wouldn't be Slashdot if we didn't get somebody denigrating the accomplishment. It's very gratifying to know that I post to the same board as so many people who can do everything with merely a stray thought, if they ever actually felt like getting around to it.

Re:That's some fine police work, Lou.

[egburr]

They probably are, but they can't admit it, because without hard data to back it up they get criticized for "profiling".

Re:That's some fine police work, Lou.

[garcia]

Do they really need to spend thousands of dollars analyzing data to determine there's more crime around check-cashing stores on paydays?

You know, when you get down to it, there's a lot of stuff that jumps out after the fact that says, "why the fuck didn't we notice that before?" But when you're doing the day to day work (in any field) you may ignore or not even know about what seems unbelievably obvious.

Just because this particular piece of information was the most prevalent in the story does not mean it's the only thing to come out of the reporting and it's certainly not the last thing that will be. Give it time. Data-mining's best fruits come from long term studies of data using a variety of methods.

Re:That's some fine police work, Lou.

[jahudabudy]

f I can figure out that payday (or the day after) is not the greatest day to be in the bank due to the sudden surge of activity,

Whose payday? We can't post cops at all of the check cashing storefronts (not banks) all the time, so which stores see the most crime after which companies' paydays?

If you can answer these questions with nothing but hunches and intuition, I'd suggest the stock market, not law enforcement.

Interesting

[stoolpigeon]

I don't really tend to think in terms of the police having the job of preventing crime. I think there job should be to apprehend criminals who are involved in or have committed a crime. That said, I guess it is good if they have tools that better help them to schedule and plan enforcement. Like anything, it can be taken too far. I would think that what would separate 'good' data mining from 'bad' data mining would be transparency and over site in the process.
 
On a side note - I'm willing to bet that if someone had asked most street cops in that area - they wouldn't have needed software or data mining tools to tell you that cash checking places in bad parts of town, on pay days were areas of higher crime.

Re:Interesting

[Knuckles]

Crime is best prevented by the fear of getting caught and punished

Says who? AFAICT, crime is best prevented by some minimum amount of personal freedom, reasonable living conditions regarding food, shelter, and education for all, along with some participation in matters of society.

Wrong city listed in summary

[chiph]

The city that won the business intelligence award for data mining is Richmond VA, not 'Redmond'.

Chip H.

scanning the comments here on slashdot

[circletimessquare]

you come to one undeniable conclusion:

cop work is one of the most criticized, and yet at the same time vital, aspects of modern life

almost all the comments here have some sort of negative thought or smarmy remark on an aspect of this story. and yet a cop is the first person these same people will call upon and depend upon if they are ever victimized or robbed. and what are the cops doing? no, what are they actually doing? i'm not asking your paranoid distrustful hollywood-addled alter ego, i'm asking your cognitive ability to look at and perceive the reality of actual police work

typical human shortsightedness and lack of gratitude

it must be so thankless being a cop. you're there to protect people, and all they can do is reflexively depart negativity at you

humanity sucks. you are all so ungrateful

Re:scanning the comments here on slashdot

[analogueblue]

Having had my apartment robbed, I can tell you that I did call the police. They sent a guy out over 24 hours later, who basically said "yeah, lots of people have been getting robbed around here lately", (note: i lived in a pretty nice area), "you probably won't get anything back. I hope you're insured." and left. No finger printing, no looking at the busted door, no follow up.

Add that to MANY instances of being harassed by cops for my car, my youth, being out late, etc... and it's hard not to have a negative view. I'm sure there are some good cops out there. I don't doubt it. But when I'm robbed they can't send a cop out that day, presumably because they're all too busy pulling over young guys in expensive cars and searching them without probably cause (I'm in tech, I'm not a drug dealer), or issuing speeding tickets for 25 in a 20 to meet their quotas.

Anecdotes don't make a rule, it's true, but they do color a persons opinions. I've interacted with law enforcement many times (speeding tickets, random pull overs, having my apt. robbed, car accident, firearms testing for concealed carry, etc...), probably about 25 interactions. Of those, one was reasonably positive (helped after my car died on the side of the road), a few were neutral (neither helpful not malicious or abusive), and the rest (about 20) were negative (screaming and threats, searches without cause, rough handling, rudeness, apathy, etc...).

Re:scanning the comments here on slashdot

[smellsofbikes]

I lived in a lousy part of town, and was burglarized twice within two years. The first time, the burglar kicked in a door and took about $800 worth of stuff. The police came by about an hour after I called them, looked around, said they doubted I'd get any of it back, and duly cranked out a report for me to file with my insurance claim. The second time, I was walking in my front door when the burglar was walking out of it, and I grabbed my backpack out of his hands. THAT time, the police were there within maybe two minutes of my call, two cars plus an unmarked detective car at the house and another two cruising up the way the guy ran; they took pictures of everything and fingerprints from doors, stuff he'd touched and dropped, you name it. One detective told me "we get extremely interested as soon as there's homeowner contact with the burglar."

My point being: the police have different criteria for what's important than you do, and they're professionals with lots of experience. Your history with them sounds like it sucks, and it's likely they were wrong a lot of the time. But you don't know why they're doing what they're doing, and my observation is that their decisions don't seem to be completely arbitrary.

Not really.

[khasim]

Crime is best prevented by the fear of getting caught and punished.

Not really. Jail time and such has almost no effect on changing criminal behaviour.

Cops aren't trying to prevent crimes - they are trying to better focus their resources to catch criminals.

Possibly. Or maybe they are trying to prevent crimes.

The criminals are not worried about going to jail AFTER the crime is committed. But if there is a cop there at the moment they would have committed the crime, most criminals will not commit it.

Means
Motive
Opportunity

With a cop right there, the "opportunity" is removed. So no crime occurs. In general, the crime rate should go down because this isn't something that can easily be displaced. It seems to be tied to the area around a check cashing storefront. Increase the patrols in those areas and the crimes are not committed.

Sweet!

[Descalzo]

I get paid on the 6th and 21st.

Which check-cashing place do you go to?

Re:The Last Days of the Permanent Floating Riot Cl

[Original Replica]

Strategic and tactical placement of resources to maximize effect without resorting to profiling or harassing citizens is a good thing.

What about cops walking a beat? That's right, walking down the same streets over and over everyday. Walking a beat means getting to know the locals and the particulars of a neighborhood in a way that doesn't happen in a squad car. Gangs don't hang out on a corner if once an hour a cops walks by a says hello, but the neighborhood kids still can hangout and could even end up viewing that cop as part of their neighborhood. From a squad car, no relationship is established and any stationary pack of teens can look like a gang to a biased eye. You don't have to profile when you actually know the people you see, but if you are just cruising along looking at a sea of nameless faces, then ethnicity and clothing style are about all you have to go on. Profiling is almost inevitable without establishing officers with good personal knowledge/relationship with the locals.