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The Heretical Freeman Dyson
dublin writes "Big-thinker Freeman Dyson has written a new essay in which he points out the need for heretics in science, and goes on to gore some sacred cows, including global climate change: 'My first heresy says that all the fuss about global warming is grossly exaggerated ... There is no doubt that parts of the world are getting warmer, but the warming is not global ... When I listen to the public debates about climate change, I am impressed by the enormous gaps in our knowledge, the sparseness of our observations and the superficiality of our theories ... All our fashionable worries and all our prevailing dogmas will probably be obsolete in fifty years. My heresies will probably also be obsolete. It is up to [the people of 2070] to find new heresies to guide our way to a more hopeful future.'"
You can be a hysteric about Global Warming and you're the toast of the town. No one is going to attack you, and you can blame it on some cigar-chomping greedy guys in a boardroom far away.
No need to bother with more precarious issues, like writing critical things about Islam, which gets you physically attacked by Muslim members of India's legislature on a good day.
People like Taslima Nasrin have more courage then every Global Warming activist on the planet combined.
Your model had a bug and we discarded it as an outlier, potential bugs are the main reason why we talk about "the models" in a plural sense since there are many different implementations with varying resolutions and a wide array of probable emmision senarios. The IPCC itself recognised this as a problem in the 90's. The only way to test the models is to test against random multi-decade historical records and check what the models (plural) predict (been done for 2-3 decades now so you can go and check the old predictions yourself if you are so inclined, you will find "missing methane" is the only major discrepency).
"i suggest you stop talking about models right now good sir."
Do have a better suggestion of how science can proceed without the use of models, or are you one of those who thinks a bridge colapse means all engineering is a waste of time?
And did you exchange a walk on part in the war for a lead role in a cage? - Pink Floyd.
Wow that was a bold statement I made. (note to self: hit preview next time)
And did you exchange a walk on part in the war for a lead role in a cage? - Pink Floyd.
Just another selfish American taking the easy way out by claiming global warming isn't real rather than accepting any responsibility to change.
No news here. Move on.
"Such tests say nothing about the accuracy of future predictions"
So...? I mean that's like saying there is no gaurentee the sun will rise tomorrow morning, it's true but what use is it? We base all future decision on past experience, even the everyday ones like filling the car with gas when we could be totalled pulling out the servo, there is no rule that says things have to make sense in the future and as such putting a social value to a scientific assesment of risk is in the realm of personal choice and politics.
"I could have a perl script randomly choosing factors from women hat sizes"
The rest of your post accepts Dyson's strawman at face value and suffers from the same hubris.
And did you exchange a walk on part in the war for a lead role in a cage? - Pink Floyd.