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The IT Industry's Red Shift Theory

Stony Stevenson writes "Sun Microsystems' CTO, Greg Papadopoulos has come out with a Red Shift Theory for IT which posits that an 'elite group of companies are consuming inordinate amounts of IT infrastructure, well beyond most other businesses, and that their demand is growing exponentially. This trend, Papadopoulos maintains, has implications not just for IT's most insatiable consumers, but for the structure of the computing industry itself. It's not just about how many CPU cycles a company uses. Papadopoulos argues that red-shift companies will enjoy exponential business growth in the coming years. Blue-shift companies — those whose processing needs aren't exploding — will grow at about the same rate as GDP, he says.'"

176 comments

  1. so....... by phantomfive · · Score: 5, Insightful

    A hardware company says that buying more hardware is a good thing for your company. News at eleven.

    (Yawn).

    --
    Qxe4
    1. Re:so....... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Looking to trade up your girlfriend? Now you can! [usedgirlfriend.com]

      What the fuck is that site about? It's about as funny as a poke up the backside.

    2. Re:so....... by TubeSteak · · Score: 1

      there are really two different application sets driving computing demand: one consisting mostly of newer Web-facing applications driving exponential growth in both user demand and computing requirements; the other comprising back-end systems that are growing at more historical rates. He's saying that the fast paced web-fronted growth should move to mainframes and not cheap commodity hardware.

      A shift to lower-cost, lower-risk utility computing, mostly on sophisticated "big iron" servers He may have a point here about "lower-risk utility computing"... depending on what he means by "risk".

      --
      [Fuck Beta]
      o0t!
    3. Re:so....... by dreamchaser · · Score: 2, Insightful

      No, I meant that the story was innacurate. It has nothing to do with the iPhone and everything to do with common practices in the US. I don't *like* those practices mind you, but the story was totally innacurate.

    4. Re:so....... by adamchou · · Score: 1

      For nearly a decade as chief technology officer at Sun Microsystems, Greg Papadopoulos has mulled the best way to build and sell high-performance computers, and more recently how to pull the company out of its financial slump.

      Apparently, releasing some crazy theory called "Red Shift Theory" that says people should buy more "big-iron" servers like what sun offers is how he plans on getting the company out of a financial slump.

    5. Re:so....... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Get back in the kitchen, bitch!

    6. Re:so....... by WindowlessView · · Score: 1

      Yawn though you may Neo...will it be the red shift or the blue shift?

      --
      Leave the gun, take the cannolis.
    7. Re:so....... by phantomfive · · Score: 1

      Good point, I missed that. Clearly he's biased, but I wonder if he's right.

      --
      Qxe4
    8. Re:so....... by Muad · · Score: 1

      He took a few spectra of Sun and noticed how red-shifted their balance sheet is ?

      --
      --- "I didn't think anyone would understand it" -Prof. Bob Muller
    9. Re:so....... by Varun+Soundararajan · · Score: 1

      the news should also add a line that he did not mean buying SUN Hardware and he probably meant buying every other hardware other than SUN (just for fun) and the next day, such comments saying "you will die if you dont buy our stuff" will stop.

      --
      This is not news at 11 , its news at 12 :-).

    10. Re:so....... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      You got zapped by the crackheaded mods, lol!

    11. Re:so....... by 0xdeadbeef · · Score: 1

      Common practice for AT&T, Verizon, and Apple is not common practice for the industry. The part that made it interesting is the fact that the source cites the iPhone as the reason for the reduction in GPS functionality.

  2. So ... by rlp · · Score: 0, Redundant

    Do the "red-shift" companies employ a "blue ocean strategy"? :-)

    --
    [Insert pithy quote here]
    1. Re:So ... by infonography · · Score: 1

      Do the "red-shift" companies employ a "blue ocean strategy"? :-) Yes, and then they raise a white flag.

      That makes it a Tricolour
      --
      Sorry about the writing. Robot fingers, you know? Cliff Steele in DOOM PATROL #23
  3. Red Shift? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    OMG! WTF! They're turning communist!

  4. If Professor Hawking says it... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Funny

    it must be true. Why else would they allude to a phenomenon of cosmic proportion to describe a simple "growth equals growth" observation?

  5. Huh? by Bombula · · Score: 5, Funny

    One shift two shift, red shift blue shift?

    --
    A-Bomb
    1. Re:Huh? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      One bitch, two bitch, dead bitch, blue bitch?

    2. Re:Huh? by ookabooka · · Score: 2, Funny

      Apparently the same people that don't like being told what they are doing is puzzling and not worth the trouble.

      --
      If you are about to mod me down, keep in mind that this post was most likely sarcastic.
    3. Re:Huh? by Bombula · · Score: 1

      Yup, just another busy day in the basement for them I guess.

      --
      A-Bomb
  6. Red Giants by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Funny

    The problem then is that red giants end up as white dwarfs, and no-one will do business with a dwarf!

    1. Re:Red Giants by maeka · · Score: 2, Funny

      The problem then is that red giants end up as white dwarfs, and no-one will do business with a dwarf!

      Except the rat and ketchup salesmen.
    2. Re:Red Giants by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      What? Nobody tosses a dwarf!

    3. Re:Red Giants by bealzabobs_youruncle · · Score: 1

      Haven't been to Iron Forge, have we?

    4. Re:Red Giants by Oktober+Sunset · · Score: 2, Funny

      loads of people do business with dwarfs, the dwarfs however always get the short end of the stick.

    5. Re:Red Giants by glitch23 · · Score: 1

      The problem then is that red giants end up as white dwarfs, and no-one will do business with a dwarf!

      That's why it pays to be a black hole.

      --
      this nation, under God, shall have a new birth of freedom. -- Lincoln, Gettysburg Address
  7. But... Doppler... by tehSpork · · Score: 4, Funny

    But they used the Doppler effect to explain it, surely that little scientific reference counts for something?

    1. Re:But... Doppler... by happyemoticon · · Score: 2, Informative

      I don't know what's more disgusting: how clumsy and obviously marketeering the comparison is, or that some people might actually swallow it. I feel like I'm being sold something by a fast-talking Australian on a shopping channel.

    2. Re:But... Doppler... by Onan · · Score: 3, Informative

      Maybe if they'd used it correctly. But their use of "blue shift" is completely inconsistent with the metaphor.

      (A blue shift happens when things are getting closer to one another, not further apart. These supposed companies not accelerating would look exactly as red-shifted to the accelerating ones as vice versa.)

    3. Re:But... Doppler... by billsoxs · · Score: 1

      But they used the Doppler effect to explain it, surely that little scientific reference counts for something?

      BUT they misuse the exponential term. (How many businesses can grow exponentially?) Do the authors know how fast of an increase that is for all but the smallest firms?

      --
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    4. Re:But... Doppler... by Belial6 · · Score: 3, Insightful

      I believe he is comparing them to the GDP.

    5. Re:But... Doppler... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Maybe he was referring to businesses with a single employee and computer.

    6. Re:But... Doppler... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      It's a red shift 'cuz they're Republican friendly. If there were companies that were friendly to commie-homo-pinko-faggots, that would be a blue shift. :D

    7. Re:But... Doppler... by TheLink · · Score: 4, Funny

      Yeah, it should be a black shift - where your company stops buying lots of expensive Sun hardware and shifts from being "in the red" to "back in black". ;).

      --
    8. Re:But... Doppler... by rgravina · · Score: 1

      We get a lot of those in Australia, of course.. but where are you talking about there? I would find it so funny to be in a foreign country and see slick-talking Aussies peddling wares on shopping channels! Even funnier if there were crappy souvieners!

    9. Re:But... Doppler... by theshowmecanuck · · Score: 1

      North America (U.S.A. and Canada anyway). For some reason the half hour TV "info-mercial" producers here seem to think that people hawking cheap kitchen "aids" and vacuum storage systems (for example) are more appealing and will sell more if they have either a Cockney or Australian accent.

      --
      -- I ignore anonymous replies to my comments and postings.
    10. Re:But... Doppler... by fractoid · · Score: 0

      ...hawking cheap kitchen "aids"... Great, first we have AIDS for talking to hospitalised people, now cheap AIDS in kitchens? Where will the madness stop?!
      --
      Rampant carbon sequestration destroyed the Dinosaurs' tropical paradise. I'm here to help repair the damage.
    11. Re:But... Doppler... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Err... you know, when stars are red-shifted, they get fainter.

      It is blue-shifting that will actually make things look brighter. I don't know how many CEO's would like their company to become exponentially fainter from the observing market?

      You'd hope a CTO of a company as big as SUN would be more careful when borrowing jargons and throwing it in the face of intelligent potential customers. Oh wait, he wasn't after intelligent customers... Oh I get it.

    12. Re:But... Doppler... by Bloke+down+the+pub · · Score: 2, Funny

      they have either a Cockney or Australian accent.
      And it doesn't matter which - most of you bally colonials can't tell the bloomin' difference.
      --
      It's true I tell you, feller at work's next door neighbour read it in the paper.
    13. Re:But... Doppler... by asc99c · · Score: 1

      Actually, you've got it the wrong way round here. GDP growth is pretty much exponential, just on the approximate rate of 2-3% a year. Average businesses can experience exponential growth, just maybe not 50% a year.

    14. Re:But... Doppler... by steve90 · · Score: 1

      On medical ultrasound machines for some reason the convention is that red colour signifies movement towards the transducer probe and blue colour signifies movement away from the probe. It seems strange to me that they picked the exact opposite convention one would expect from a knowledge of the terms redshift and blueshift.

    15. Re:But... Doppler... by Varun+Soundararajan · · Score: 1

      "bringing in Doppler effect into economics in a news(??) report." This is perfect example of Inter disciplinary work. -- There is no sig.

    16. Re:But... Doppler... by jollyreaper · · Score: 1

      I don't know what's more disgusting: how clumsy and obviously marketeering the comparison is, or that some people might actually swallow it. I feel like I'm being sold something by a fast-talking Australian on a shopping channel. Let's hope it isn't stingray repellent. *whispers* I don't think it works.
      --
      Kwisatz Haderach
      Sell the spice to CHOAM
      This Mahdi took Shaddam's Throne
    17. Re:But... Doppler... by dedalus2000 · · Score: 1

      for astrophysics blue shift means it's moving towards the viewer red shift away. though how this guy's fevered imagination drew any correlation to tech consumption is beyond me unless it's based on what the companies look like through an IR camera.

      --
      My keyboads not woking popely.
    18. Re:But... Doppler... by cheezfreek · · Score: 1

      they have either a Cockney or Australian accent.

      And it doesn't matter which - most of you bally colonials can't tell the bloomin' difference.

      Oh, we can usually tell that there's a difference. It's just that we always mistake one or the other for South African.

  8. So companies that innovate will make more money? by Fulcrum+of+Evil · · Score: 1

    Get out of town...

    It's true, innovation takes a fair amount of software development (if that's what you're building). If you're doing accounting systems for state governments, your revenue will grow more slowly, unless you add a new state or something.

    Of course, out in the real world, there's more than IT - corning has been growing fairly fast over the past 5 years, and they seem to have done it with carbon filters.

    --
    "We returned the General to El Salvador, or maybe Guatemala, it's difficult to tell from 10,000 feet"
  9. Every week by Aceticon · · Score: 3, Insightful

    Every week, yet another IT business-man / manager /columnist which fondly remembers the Internet Bubble comes up with yet another theory on how IT/Internet/Networking is causing/will cause an infinite boom of growth and properity and those which do not jump onto the train of [fill in something he's trying to sell] will be left behind in the dust.

    I thought the Bursting of the Bubble had cured people of falling for this kind of arguments (which were used over and over again during the Bubble to justify insane valuations for companies which never made a cent).

    Guess the leeches didn't gave up on trying to suck the fools dry yet.

    1. Re:Every week by russlar · · Score: 1

      Every week, yet another IT business-man / manager /columnist which fondly remembers the Internet Bubble comes up with yet another theory on how IT/Internet/Networking is causing/will cause an infinite boom of growth and properity and those which do not jump onto the train of [fill in something he's trying to sell] will be left behind in the dust.

      I thought the Bursting of the Bubble had cured people of falling for this kind of arguments (which were used over and over again during the Bubble to justify insane valuations for companies which never made a cent).

      Guess the leeches didn't gave up on trying to suck the fools dry yet.
      "Who is more foolish: the fool, or the fool who follows him?"-Kenobi
      --
      Anybody want my mod points?
    2. Re:Every week by techno-vampire · · Score: 1
      I thought the Bursting of the Bubble had cured people of falling for this kind of arguments...


      Why? It's never stopped bubbles from forming or bursting in the past, going all the way back to the famous South Sea Bubble.

      --
      Good, inexpensive web hosting
    3. Re:Every week by archen · · Score: 2, Insightful

      I won't say I buy the entire theory, but I think there's a bit of merit to it. I mean think of a company that REALLY utilizes technology to its fullest potential (ok well imagine one that does). If such a company actually reaches this point they would probably seek to leverage IT more than they do today, which means significant growth.

      Every company I've seen is still mired in red tape and completely backwards use of much of the technology we require to survive. If we actually did streamline our business the way software is capable of doing, I imagine we would be more than willing to invest in software that could boost our capabilities even farther instead of simply loathing the next round of Microsoft Office upgrades.

    4. Re:Every week by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0
      I thought the Bursting of the Bubble had cured people of falling for this kind of argument (which were used over and over again during the Bubble to justify insane valuations for companies which never made a cent).
      1. the bursting of bubbles has never cured people for long
      2. companies are all about exploiting resources; those that really get
        rolling can do it exponentially; computing/IT resources have fewer limits
        than physical resources
      3. it's still a great ride for those that can hold onto the rocket!
    5. Re:Every week by Aceticon · · Score: 4, Interesting
      As somebody who does software for a living, i can tell you that the biggest factor in the success of a company is ... business processes.

      In the big picture of how a company is successfull, software is a tool, networking technologies are tools and the Internet is a tool. It all boils down to people and organization - individuals and the way they work together.

      IT is something that can fit into the business and can empower the people to work beter - it's not a silver bulet which will magically transform a mismanaged company into a growing, thriving business.

      Sorry to burst your bubble, but from someone that has been working in IT for many years, across several industries, it's my experience that the best success stories are not "IT transforming companies", instead they came from "companies that mold IT to their needs".


      Every company I've seen is still mired in red tape and completely backwards use of much of the technology we require to survive.

      Red tape is an organizational problem, not a technological problem. Bringing IT in without solving the underlying problem will just result in adding new layers to the bureaucracy (been there, seen it happen, not a pretty sight).

      The truth is, IT brings with it whole new time and money sinks (license control, networking/systems administration, IT security, software development and costumization, outside consultants, etc) which would not be there without IT. In truth, as many of us in IT have seen again and again, often the blind, vendor-pushed, fashion-following approach to deploying IT in a company results in wasted money and a decrease in productivity (for that company, the vendors are probably quite happy).

      During the Boom years, many companies where managed by people that did not understood that technology is a tool for empowering the business, not the other way around. Countless managers let themselfs be taken with sentences such as "utilizing technology to its fullest potential", "software that can boost our capabilities even farther", "the technology we require to survive", "streamline our business the way software is capable of doing" and other such sales pitches and so let their companies be taken for wild rides, where the only ones that really profited where the vendors. Hopefully, most learned their lesson, and the latest generation of of CxOs is beter at separating the technological wheat from the chaff.

      PS: Even though i'm someone which if often brought in to help clean up the mess done during one of those "wild rides" (said mess having been done often enough by the unholy association of software vendors and IT consultancies), I would much rather loose that part of my work in the future that be faced again and again with the kind of raw sewage which is all that has been left from the blood sucking feeding frenzy done by the above mention vendors and consultancies.

      PPS: Yeah, i'm sour about this.
    6. Re:Every week by perlchild · · Score: 1

      The only company that seems to use technology the way you describe lately, is Google, actually managing to turn the reputation of their Google Cluster into an asset, the value of which is reflected in company valuation.

      You'll notice I'm mentioning technology, outside the individual, desktop use your mentioning.

    7. Re:Every week by turbidostato · · Score: 1

      "As somebody who does software for a living, i can tell you that the biggest factor in the success of a company is ... business processes."

      I can tell I buy all your points and I see why it has been modded insightful. ...Except it is *not* insightful, but quite experienced and realistic. Of course you are right about success being in people and bussiness processes. But you seem to forget the tremendous empowering IT can give to those proper people and processes. Just like a formula one pilot success is in the pilot himself but it is the car the one that will make the pilot run 200mph, which is one order of magnitude beyond the pilot's physical abilities, proper IT-driven people and processes can "run" one order of magnitude faster than without them. We saw a similar case on the first days of the Industrial Revolution when the new steam-powered machines boosted productivity, and we saw it again on the first days of computing-aided processes. It came so inbred into our productivity fibers we are almost unaware about what IT is doing for us. Just think the enormous nightmare (even impossibility) it would mean just managing the paychecks of a 20.000 employees company.

      Now we see a new (probably not as big as the previous two ones) revolution: pervasiveness of very strong individual computer power and peer-to-peer comunication channels (both computer-based and "classic" telco) offer a tremendous potential to companies. Think about the fast response and flexibility of a ten people company ported to a 20.000 one; that's current IT potential. The problem is that big companies and the management practices their "strategists" -CxO and the like, are accustomed were ironed out on "the old days" (piramidal management, red tape, plan for your average "greyish" employee that has the ability to know nothing nor manage the information but about his minimal part of the company) *because* that was what the old days tools allowed for. You are right it is people and processes the ones that need to change, but they need to change *because* the outstanding power new IT brings to the companies. It's needed a new generation of managers with the ability to understand and tame such power IT offers not only to them but to the whole members of their companies.

    8. Re:Every week by Mutant321 · · Score: 1

      I'm a software developer too, and I basically agree with what you're saying. *But* there's one way companies have begun to make use of their IT department in a slightly different way. I think it's part of what's driven the recovery since the bust. Basically, it's seeing your IT deptartment not just as a necessary cost centre, which creates tools, and possibly products as directed by the business, but as a group of (hopefully) smart and creative people that can actually drive product and process development. Google are probably the most obvious example of a company that does this, but I think there are plenty of other companies that do this to some extent.

      That's not to say IT should call the shots, but they should work in tandem with business to produce something that works on both sides of the equation. It can be a difficult transition for many companies, because they're used to telling the tech team what to do, and many companies are structured so that IT reports into business people, or at least non-technical managers with a much stronger sense of business than technology.

      Agile (or if you think that's a dirty word, some form of iterative development) is pretty important for this, so the techies get a chance to have some sort of input at a stage when it's not too late.

      I think companies that take this sort of approach may well be the real "red shift" companies. (I certainly don't think it has much to do with buying Sun's hardware :)

    9. Re:Every week by Aceticon · · Score: 1

      That's my experience also when working in technology companies - IT is very important in driving the business. If you think about this, in any sucessful technology company, the IT Department has to be both Production and Product R&D - they both are the source of money for the company and drive the innovation that makes the company grow.

      However, in non-technology companies (Finance being the not-technology business area with which i have the most experience), IT is a cost center. Granted, the business is well aware that IT is a must if they want to keep up with other companies in the same business area, though it's almost always the business which drives innovation in those companies, not IT. (Picture an Investment Bank which is driven by the need to adopt new technologies instead of innovating with new financial products and services - they would be trashed in the market).

      The less a company deals with information and information exchange (and if you think about it, Finance is all about knowing the right things and sending bits and bytes between companies - aka transactions), especially for non-service companies, the less important IT is for the bottom line of the company. Often enough, there are very few advantages in integrating IT with the core business of such a company, in which case IT is typically only used for things like invoicing, payroll and such.

      One thing us in IT are often guilty of, is looking at the world in a technology-centric way. This is the reason why we so often are surprised by the lack of adoption of some "great new technology" or other and become disapointed when we work for a big, non-technology company and they're so slow and resistent to adopting the latest and greatest software, development language or development process.

      In order to understand this and being able to deal with it, I've spent the last several years trying to "look beyond technology". I like to think i'm half way there already ;)

  10. Cause and Effect by ZachPruckowski · · Score: 5, Insightful

    This is backwards. Companies which are buying hardware are buying hardware because they already have a successful business model (or one they expect to be successful). The differentiator between successful and unsuccessful companies isn't how much hardware they buy, it's the viability of their business plan/product.

    1. Re:Cause and Effect by Actually,+I+do+RTFA · · Score: 2, Interesting

      Correct, companies that are experiencing (or anticipating) exponential growth in revenue grow their hardware by a similar amount. Hardware is replacing assembly line workers, in some industries, as the cost of production that has to scale with the size of business. Imagine if the same thing was said about a car company and assembly line workers? People would automatically know that exponential growth, or disasterous overreaching, were coming. But fuzz the logic by refering to computers and suddenly an assinine statement becomes news.

      Damn social scientists unable to distingush correlation and causation.

      --
      Your ad here. Ask me how!
    2. Re:Cause and Effect by LarsG · · Score: 1

      Dang, you beat me to it. That's the first thought that struck me too, Papadopoulos has reversed the cause and effect.

      Some companies scale up their IT infrastructure at a faster-than-Moore pace because they need that IT infrastructure. Why do they need it? Because they are experiencing heavy growth. They don't have growth because their IT demands are exploding, their IT demands are exploding because they have growth.

      --
      If J.K.R wrote Windows: Puteulanus fenestra mortalis!
    3. Re:Cause and Effect by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      "This gets you lucky with the ladies."

      I fail to see how, even if using a lengthier argument, Papadopoulos is doing more than simple associative marketing--making the riches, fame and popularity association with a product.

    4. Re:Cause and Effect by fm6 · · Score: 1

      FUD! FUD! Next you'll be telling me that eating lots of Wheaties won't make me strong!

    5. Re:Cause and Effect by vertinox · · Score: 2, Insightful

      This is backwards. Companies which are buying hardware are buying hardware because they already have a successful business model (or one they expect to be successful). The differentiator between successful and unsuccessful companies isn't how much hardware they buy, it's the viability of their business plan/product.

      I would agree, but seeing things from the street level as support goes, I would argue that companies who don't put enough money into IT or streamlining its process will loose money.

      Each one of these items will cause a company to loose each time it happens:

      -Password reset
      -Slow application speeds
      -Computer reboot due to freeze/crash
      -Slow boot times
      -Drive re-image because of boot failure
      -Email storage over the limit
      -VPN being unavailable
      -Exchange server being down

      This list could go on, but even though this do not cost money upfront as say the entire sales SQL database being down or the company front end customer web page being down, but if your employees are constantly not working because they can't, then you are loosing money.

      The moral of this story though is to buy decent hardware and maintain it right or you might as well have thrown the money into the fire place. I don't think you need to buy suped up gaming rigs for your employees but you do at least need to give them something that does take 5 minutes to boot in the morning and more than 50mb of email space.

      Oh which leads me to point out that when you force low quotas on email accounts your smarter employees will start using gmail which might put you at risk for putting confidential information on the net which is as secure as your employees home computer if they access Gmail at home. So buck up and give them the 2 gigs (hard drive space is cheap as it is) or just get ready to ban all outside email and file storage sites on the corporate firewall and make a mandatory auto archive policy so that people aren't wasting time calling the support center complaining they can't send emails because they are over the limit.

      --
      "I am the king of the Romans, and am superior to rules of grammar!"
      -Sigismund, Holy Roman Emperor (1368-1437)
    6. Re:Cause and Effect by bms20 · · Score: 1

      Thank you :)

      That is a far more polite way of putting exactly what I wanted to say.

      -bms20

    7. Re:Cause and Effect by Belial6 · · Score: 1

      Don't forget: Employee has to jump through hoops because the companies computer policies prevent them from running the software that would let them get their job done.

  11. The ST Industry's Red Shirt Theory by whrrr · · Score: 3, Funny

    'Sun Microsystems' CTO, Greg Papadopoulos has come out with a Red Shirt Theory for IT which posits that an 'elite group of aliens are consuming inordinate amounts of ST infrastructure, well beyond most other aliens, and that their murders are growing exponentially. This trend, Papadopoulos maintains, has implications not just for ST's most insatiable consumers, but for the structure of the space industry itself. It's not just about how many warp cycles a company uses. Papadopoulos argues that red-shirt companies will enjoy exponential deaths in the coming years. Blue-shirt companies -- those whose heads aren't exploding -- will live at about the same rate as GDP, he says.

    1. Re:The ST Industry's Red Shirt Theory by doom · · Score: 1
      Not bad at all, but I think you need something to swap in for that "GDP" reference.


      Maybe "will survive at least into the third season".

  12. no, no, no by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    He's saying that companies which are growing quickly are growing quickly.

    1. Re:no, no, no by Moderatbastard · · Score: 4, Funny

      Come on, you're oversimplifying. He also says slower growing companies grow more slowly. It's that little bit of extra insight that makes the difference between ending up as CTO instead of a janitor in the modern corporate world.

      --
      1/3 of jokes get modded OT. If you get the joke, mod 1 in 3 insightful/interesting/underrated to restore karma balance.
  13. Oddballs. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Red shift? Blue shift? What do you do when it goes plaid?

    1. Re:Oddballs. by funwithBSD · · Score: 1

      And vat ever happened to plain old lavender blue dilly dilly? Silly.

      - Prof. Von Drake.

      --
      Never answer an anonymous letter. - Yogi Berra
    2. Re:Oddballs. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Red shift? Blue shift? I'm the guy with the gun.

  14. Bullshit by nagora · · Score: 1
    Basically, spending exponentially more each year on hardware will give you an advantage. True if by "advantage" you mean "become bankrupt before your competitors".

    TWW

    --
    "Encyclopedia" is to "Wikipedia" what "Library" is to "Some people at a bus stop"
    1. Re:Bullshit by The_mad_linguist · · Score: 1

      See! You win the race! Buy our products!

  15. "Sir, we need to upgrade our infastructure..." by Avillia · · Score: 1

    "Sir, we need to upgrade our infastructure..."

    "Why is that, Jenkins?"

    "According to a new report, our profitability is directly related to our processing needs, sir."

    "Well, I'm not seeing how our needs have increased enough to go over our yearly budget for hardware, Jenkins."

    "Sir, having extra processing power will increase our productivity..."

    "How's that, Jenkins?"

    "Porn."

    "Make it so, Number One."

    1. Re:"Sir, we need to upgrade our infastructure..." by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1, Interesting

      You joke, but a friends company was hauling in servers and servers for months because of client running an adult-contact website having an exponential need for both space and bandwidth.

  16. Inventing Terminology for CEO's by florescent_beige · · Score: 5, Funny

    Don't be harsh. Proactively leveraging six sigma synergies in a blue-red shift discontinuously changing ecosystem leads to a re-efficiently contracting contingency workforce paradigm tending toward the rightsize.

    Only a fool would ignore the gainshare effect of empowerment strategies that insourced intellectual capital reallocation due to lean Kaizen open door management obviously creates. The mosaic effects of capital market global forward-trends account for fully 4 points share of Sun's complex-component earnings per diluted ownerstake last quarter.

    With two new colors to work with, things can only improve.
    --
    Equine Mammals Are Considerably Smaller
    1. Re:Inventing Terminology for CEO's by ameline · · Score: 2, Funny

      Yes, but I'm not entirely sure that I don't fail to completely disagree with you.

      --
      Ian Ameline
    2. Re:Inventing Terminology for CEO's by richie2000 · · Score: 1

      I was going to try playing buzzword bingo with that post, but my board spontaneously combusted. Well played, Sir!

      --
      Money for nothing, pix for free
    3. Re:Inventing Terminology for CEO's by Stradivarius · · Score: 3, Interesting

      There's a neat trick you can play with Markov chains to generate this sort of text. It may not be as good as your handcrafted version, but it makes it easier to generate larger texts.

      The algorithm basically works by feeding in a sample text, from which you generate a statistical model of what words are likely to follow any given N-word sequence. Then you select at random which of the possible suffix words to output given the previous N output words. (Obviously you need to provide the initial conditions, i.e. the first N words of output, to the algorithm). If you allow punctuation to be considered part of a word, it seems to produce reasonably grammatical sentences too.

      Picking N=2 seems to work pretty well. I imagine if we fed in a bunch of buzzword-laded management texts we'd get some great results.

    4. Re:Inventing Terminology for CEO's by dkf · · Score: 1

      There's a neat trick you can play with Markov chains to generate this sort of text. It may not be as good as your handcrafted version, but it makes it easier to generate larger texts. For the sake of my poor braincells, please don't do that! A longer piece would give me nightmares (and probably cause a stack overflow on my parser...)
      --
      "Little does he know, but there is no 'I' in 'Idiot'!"
    5. Re:Inventing Terminology for CEO's by ceoyoyo · · Score: 3, Insightful

      You know, it was annoying when marketing goons made up jargon. But it's more annoying now that they steal technical words from other fields and misapply them.

    6. Re:Inventing Terminology for CEO's by Tablizer · · Score: 2, Funny

      There's a neat trick you can play with Markov chains to generate this sort of text.

      Or just use the Dilbert Mission Statement Generator with a few minor edits here and there.

    7. Re:Inventing Terminology for CEO's by illumin8 · · Score: 1

      That is awesome. I've didn't notice this before, but the new business doublespeak is remarkably Orwellian... Scary isn't it?

      --
      "When the president does it, that means it's not illegal." - Richard M. Nixon
    8. Re:Inventing Terminology for CEO's by illumin8 · · Score: 1

      I've didn't notice this before
      Gah! I wish there was an edit button on Slashdot... Sorry for making your brain hurt by reading that.
      --
      "When the president does it, that means it's not illegal." - Richard M. Nixon
  17. Pseudoscience by StikyPad · · Score: 1

    I no expert on this One Shift Two Shift Red Shift Blue Shift business, but where exactly is the author standing that the GDP is approaching him, and how many terahertz is the IT industry is oscillating at?

  18. Every company is racing away from every other by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 4, Funny

    And the rate of expansion seems to be increasing from the little-understood Dark Capitalism.

    1. Re:Every company is racing away from every other by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Funny

      Also known as the black market.

  19. Re:So companies that innovate will make more money by WK2 · · Score: 1

    I hear Microsoft is making a lot of money, too.

    --
    Write your own Choose Your Own Adventure. http://www.freegameengines.org/gamebook-engine/
  20. Microsoft has BSOD by Tablizer · · Score: 1

    ...so Sun will invent RSOD.

    1. Re:Microsoft has BSOD by chuckymonkey · · Score: 1

      Microsoft already has the market cornered on the RSOD. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Longhorn_RSoD.p ng.

      --
      "Some books contain the machinery required to create and sustain universes."-Tycho
  21. Its really simple to understand.... by 3seas · · Score: 1

    The more digital consumer babeling and viewing gets the more processsing power you need to process it.

    A lot of the shift is from a transmission media that didn't need a lot of processing power to one that does.
    Where the amount of media consumers access is growing at a rate less than that.

    Where is the difference in the eyes of the consumer... their wallet mostly.

    But we have more choices now and a greater level of convenience. IS it worth it?

  22. There using SlashDot to test Marketing by flayzernax · · Score: 1

    They are using slashdot to test marketing. Now how they score articles on wether it gets more or less vitriol from us slashdotters is up for debate.
    Remember, Marketing, or advertising targets only the week-minded, sane strong willed people will do it themselves.

    1. Re:There using SlashDot to test Marketing by Cathbard · · Score: 1
      I suspect that Papadopolous is a CMO and not a CTO at all. If so, Mr Papadopolous - kill yourself now. Seriously, kill yourself. No I'm not joking, kill yourself. Do everybody a favour and just die!!!!!

      If you are indeed a CTO I take it all back, but please go back to managing techs and leave fantasy to the marketing division where it belongs.

      --
      "A cynic is what an idealist calls a realist" - Sir Humphrey Appleby
    2. Re:There using SlashDot to test Marketing by mevets · · Score: 1

      It is more subtle than that. Slashdot is merely following its media masters of "sucking at the teat of press releases and shitting the result to the public", to paraphrase Kent Brockman. You can't blame sun-lacky for playing the game; you might blame slashdot for being played. Blogs are the new "Inflight"; instead of having to pay outrageous payola, you can do it for free. This is WebII.

      Btw, properly it is "they are", or perhaps "the're", but never there.

    3. Re:There using SlashDot to test Marketing by flayzernax · · Score: 1

      Yup, I used both forms, the correct and incorrect one (they are, there, etc). Thanks for the correction. I agree with both of ya, my comments just my sense of humor stating the obvious =) I still love slashdot.

  23. All I got from this: by Entropius · · Score: 3, Funny

    1) Some people buy more fast computers than other people.
    2) Like, a *lot* more.
    3) These have to be bloody *fast* computers, if they're causing Doppler shifts.

    1. Re:All I got from this: by ceoyoyo · · Score: 1

      There's a book... can't remember by whom... Niven maybe? Anyway, the plot is that creatures from another dimension are drawn to anywhere in our universe where time is a precious commodity. They then proceed to eat it, meaning there's less time, meaning everything slows down. So naturally time is most precious inside the processors of large computer systems. It gets bad enough that there's a visible redshift when you look into a datacentre. As I remember the solution is to load all the big computers on a barge and tow them out to sea.

  24. Let's for a moment ignore how poor this analogy is by The+Living+Fractal · · Score: 2, Informative

    Ok actually let's not. Let's play a little imagination game.

    Picture the whole of IT companies and companies that use IT as a spherical microcosm. The normal physical dimensions in this microcosm are instead dimensions of economy, scale, and technology. Like our universe is puportedly doing, this sphere is expanding. Now, because he claims these "elite" companies are basically exponentially distancing themselves from the other companies, they could arguably be on the extents of the expanding sphere. Although there are fewer of these companies they require much more of our microcosmic IT space. Fair enough. Moving away from us, and red shifted from our perspective in the exact center of the sphere.

    So far, so good I guess. Then we have blue-shifted companies. In this microcosm, in order to become blue-shifted to my perspective, you'd have to be heading away from using more advanced technology and also using less of it. Frankly, I can't come up with a single company in the world that's doing that and is successful. If you don't look at in on a time-scale of a year or two, but rather of fifty, one hundred or even five hundred years, it's pretty damn clear that every single company is red-shifted from the perspective of an individual in the center of the microcosmic sphere.

    End game.

    So I put it to you, /. reader, to fix my broken visualization of his analogy. If you can't, I have to say to Popdopopdoloslous, you have lost me.

    TLF

    --
    I do not respond to cowards. Especially anonymous ones.
  25. 1960's claim repackaged - why it faulters by Tablizer · · Score: 1

    The notion of utility computing, of course, has been around since the IBM mainframe. What's new is not just an explosion in demand from companies with mountains of data to climb

    Not really. Data chomping has always been a desire. It just used to not be cost-effective. People indeed did think that IBM would sell bigger and bigger chunks of plug-and-play processing. However, minicomputers and microcomputers ruined that goal. It appears to go in cycles where centralization ebbs and flows as new technologies and tech fads come and go, changing the dynamic.

    ...Referring again to the power grid, Papadopoulos uses the analogy of a massive, very hot power plant that produces multiple megawatts of energy versus an array of portable Honda generators....But the jury is still out on whether the big iron from Sun will win out over arrays of dozens or hundreds of commodity boxes. "We'll see [an exponential] increase in the number of servers sold, yes," says technology pundit Mark Anderson, author of the Strategic News Service newsletter. "Will they be Sun servers, running Solaris? I'm not so sure. Everything is headed toward open systems, mostly Linux on commodity servers."

    This is exactly what the mainframe-centric model proposed. In a way, it is what economic communism claimed: that centralization factors out wasteful duplication, and allows economies of scale. However, reality has shown that to be messier and more difficult than it looks on paper.

    One of the counter factors is that it is often easier to do massive data chomping on a desktop PC. For example, Oracle servers are almost always overburdened and therefore slow, so that people tend to download raw data to MS-Access and similar tools and process it themselves faster. If the Oracle DBA's pumped up the power of the Oracle servers, then people would use up all the extra power pretty quick. it's like building freeways: the more you build the more houses are built. Traffic bottlenecks are what limits many cities from growing further.

    Similarly, if one manages their own processing (via MS-Access-like tools), then they manage their resources more efficiently. The Oracle DBA cannot really be the one who decides who is wasting resources or not because they cannot keep their head in everybody's business needs to see if they really need an 8-way join for an odd marketing report, etc. Localization thus polices resources better since one is competing against themselves (their own desktop or local department/office servers).

  26. 'Exponential' fails common sense. by raehl · · Score: 3, Insightful

    Exponential growth for a business isn't even possible, unless maybe you start out really, really small, and for a short amount of time.

    Exponential business growth is not possible simply because the number of customers is finite. Even if you make something that all 6 billion people will buy, you're still not going to be able to maintain exponential growth very long before everybody is a customer.

    1. Re:'Exponential' fails common sense. by TheRaven64 · · Score: 4, Interesting

      Even if you make something that all 6 billion people will buy, you're still not going to be able to maintain exponential growth very long before everybody is a customer. Not necessarily. You can grow the number of customers by a small amount, but increase the number of things you sell them. Take a look at Apple. While previously they got most of their money from Macs, now most of it comes from iPods and iTunes. If they sold everyone who owned a Mac an iPod, then they doubled their sales without increasing their customer base at all. If they can then sell them an iPhone as well, then they have grown their business even more without increasing their customer base.

      Of course, eventually you need to be producing everything people use and consuming all available resources. Then, if you want to keep growing, you need to start doing something really novel (asteroid mining, that kind of thing), but that won't happen for a long time. Exponential growth is completely possible for short periods; Sun experienced it themselves in the .com boom.

      --
      I am TheRaven on Soylent News
    2. Re:'Exponential' fails common sense. by _Sprocket_ · · Score: 2, Funny

      Of course, eventually you need to be producing everything people use and consuming all available resources. I'm looking forward to the iApple with not only a lickable, but crunchable interface.
    3. Re:'Exponential' fails common sense. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Exponential growth is completely possible for short periods; Sun experienced it themselves in the .com boom.

      Congratulations on getting mod points for restating what he just said.

    4. Re:'Exponential' fails common sense. by Gothmog+of+A · · Score: 2, Informative

      Not true. Economies can and do grow exponentially which means that the average wealth per person growth exponentially as well (assuming population is constant) as do companies (on average).

      This growth must slow down eventually but the number of customers is not the limiting factor because they can spend exponentially more as they get exponentially richer.

    5. Re:'Exponential' fails common sense. by Fulcrum+of+Evil · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Exponential growth for a business isn't even possible

      Sure it is. 2% growth is exponential.

      --
      "We returned the General to El Salvador, or maybe Guatemala, it's difficult to tell from 10,000 feet"
    6. Re:'Exponential' fails common sense. by ultranova · · Score: 2, Insightful

      Even if you make something that all 6 billion people will buy, you're still not going to be able to maintain exponential growth very long before everybody is a customer.

      How naive. At that point you do the RIAA and resell them the same thing in a slightly new form, again and again, over and over again ad nauseaum. And if the damn fools - er, customers - stop buying it, then you blame pirates and start using the legal system as a blackmail tool to extract money directly from random people.

      --

      Forget magic. Any technology distinguishable from divine power is insufficiently advanced.

    7. Re:'Exponential' fails common sense. by jmv · · Score: 1

      Exponential growth for a business isn't even possible, unless maybe you start out really, really small, and for a short amount of time.

      Of course, it's possible. Not only possible, but actually very easy to do. You start with no business and the next year, you have twice as much, and so on. Though seriously, exponential growth is what the general economy has been doing for quite a while. Every year, we get X % growth, so it's exponential. Exponential doesn't mean it has to go through the roof, 0.00001 % annual growth is still exponential.

    8. Re:'Exponential' fails common sense. by Stooshie · · Score: 1

      ... You start with no business and the next year, you have twice as much ...

      erm, twice as much as no business is no business.

      By the way, continuous exponential growth is not possible. This is because resources are finite. It has nothing to do with customers or imaginitive ways of re-packaging a similar product to maintain growth.

      --
      America, Home of the Brave. ... .and the Squaw.
    9. Re:'Exponential' fails common sense. by jmv · · Score: 1

      Depends how you measure growth. If you measure in dollars, then indefinite exponential growth is possible. Even in constant dollar (or XYZ resource), exponential growth is possible over quite a long time as long as the growth isn't that rapid.

    10. Re:'Exponential' fails common sense. by Stooshie · · Score: 1

      ... Depends how you measure growth ...

      Exponential is exponential (the increase from this year to next year is larger than the increase from last year to this year). It doesn't matter how you measure it. You can measure it in dollars, percentage, pounds or filluvian credits.

      ... exponential growth is possible over quite a long time as long as the growth isn't that rapid ...

      You are stil going to run out of resources though, unless you are importing resources from outside the planet.

      "... quite a long time ..." and "... as long as the growth isn't that rapid ..." don't really measure up to my understanding of exponential.

      --
      America, Home of the Brave. ... .and the Squaw.
    11. Re:'Exponential' fails common sense. by Colin+Smith · · Score: 2, Informative

      You have a very good point.

      However... Your money is based on debt. Debt increases exponentially and requires exponential growth in the economy to service it.

      --
      Deleted
    12. Re:'Exponential' fails common sense. by Alioth · · Score: 1

      But, the real question - Will It Blend?

    13. Re:'Exponential' fails common sense. by TechnicolourSquirrel · · Score: 2, Insightful

      I think your argument ignores the fact that the economy is not a zero-sum game, and that new 'value' is constantly generated literally out of thin air. And people can sell this value without even producing or manufacturing anything or using up a single resource besides themselves. And since this human element of intangible value (i.e. new inventions adding more value to the same materials) is a major part of the system, and that part has no resource limit besides the number of available thinkers, AND the population grows exponentially, there would have to be an exponenitally bleeding hole in any resource count.

    14. Re:'Exponential' fails common sense. by jmv · · Score: 1

      Exponential is exponential (the increase from this year to next year is larger than the increase from last year to this year). It doesn't matter how you measure it. You can measure it in dollars, percentage, pounds or filluvian credits.

      Even heard of inflation? Noticed how prices and salaries have both been growing exponentially for quite a while (as in more than a hundred years) now?

    15. Re:'Exponential' fails common sense. by crgrace · · Score: 1

      You start with no business and the next year, you have twice as much, and so on.

      That isn't exponential growth... that is geometric growth.

    16. Re:'Exponential' fails common sense. by Stooshie · · Score: 1

      Yes, but the money people pay for that service is earned from their job which is ultimately earned (trough many steps) from some resource somewhere on the planet.

      What we forget in the west is that all of our wealth ultimately comes from some kind of resource on the earth. Be it oil, gems, food, coal. Even if you are a trader in the city selling and buying futures in the service industry sector, ultimately the source of that wealth comes from some resource on the earth.

      --
      America, Home of the Brave. ... .and the Squaw.
    17. Re:'Exponential' fails common sense. by TechnicolourSquirrel · · Score: 1

      Yes, but the money people pay for that service is earned from their job which is ultimately earned (trough many steps) from some resource somewhere on the planet. What about the people who sell that intangible service? Obviously, they don't fit into your equation, and there are lots of them. Plenty of our earnings come from resources but not all of them, the part that doesn't is the most inflatable -- no matter how you construct it there is a massive hole in the 'Earthly value is finite' argument. It is not enough to prove that some or even most value is indexed to the availability of resources; in order to prove that sustained exponential growth is impossible, you have to show that ALL of it does.
    18. Re:'Exponential' fails common sense. by Stooshie · · Score: 1

      ... What about the people who sell that intangible service? Obviously, they don't fit into your equation, and there are lots of them ...

      It's the money spent on those intangibles that is earned from money that is not intangible.

      ... Plenty of our earnings come from resources but not all of them ...

      All of them come from resources. Most of them come directly from resources, but the other part come indirectly from resources (because the people that pay your wages have most of there imcome from resources and the people that pay their wages have most of their ioncome from resource etc ...)

      Ultimately this chain ends in someone, whose entire income comes from resources (farmers, miners etc...), paying for goods/services.

      Money is a lot more than numbers in a bank account. Granted, it's not directly linked to silver or gold anymore (eg a pound in money representing a pound of silver in the bank), but the world economy is based on resources. Just because most of the direct production happpens in other countries doesn't separate us from that.

      --
      America, Home of the Brave. ... .and the Squaw.
    19. Re:'Exponential' fails common sense. by TechnicolourSquirrel · · Score: 1

      ... What about the people who sell that intangible service? Obviously, they don't fit into your equation, and there are lots of them ... It's the money spent on those intangibles that is earned from money that is not intangible. Not if the people who spent that money also sell intangible services. ... Plenty of our earnings come from resources but not all of them ...

      because the people that pay your wages have most of there imcome from resources Nope.

      and the people that pay their wages have most of their ioncome from resource etc Again, nope. Also, all of your arguments work in reverse. If you sell tangible resources, and people who buy your products are themselves sellers of intangibles, then I could just as well (as you do) argue the reverse: that all even tangible sales ultimately stem from intangible value. ALL of your arguments work in reverse. Of course, neither extreme is true. The truth is that some value originates in resources and some is created entirely out the human mind.
    20. Re:'Exponential' fails common sense. by Stooshie · · Score: 1

      ... some value ... is created entirely out the human mind ...

      Name a value that originates entirely in the human mind and I will try and show that it actually originates in resources and the ultimately everything starts with resources. (It might be tomorrow now as it's getting late here in the UK).

      --
      America, Home of the Brave. ... .and the Squaw.
    21. Re:'Exponential' fails common sense. by persnowfall.se · · Score: 1

      I wonder when Apple will start selling those cheep easy to use space shuttles that I keep reading about on the rumor sites.

    22. Re:'Exponential' fails common sense. by jmv · · Score: 1

      So 2^x isn't exponential? I suppose you can enlighten me on that?

    23. Re:'Exponential' fails common sense. by TechnicolourSquirrel · · Score: 1

      ... some value ... is created entirely out the human mind ... Name a value that originates entirely in the human mind and I will try and show that it actually originates in resources and the ultimately everything starts with resources. (It might be tomorrow now as it's getting late here in the UK). First of all, this is probably the right time to say that I think your theory is incredibly simplistic and no economist worth his salt would ever subscribe to it. (That isn't a counterargument, it's just an explanation for why I think this debate is not worth putting much more effort into, for my part.) Secondly, you are ignoring my major points, just quoting the one line you see an opportunity in, and therefore just trying to draw me into your game instead, and it's underhanded, so I won't play. (How do you answer the argument that all of your points work in reverse? Even your little game could work in reverse. What makes you the arbiter of what part of a product's value is the *real* value. Why is resource value MORE real than intellectual value? If the two values are combined in a single product, why does the resource value take precedence, even if it is very tiny? etc. These are the central questions here -- but instead of addressing them, you just snip that point out. Should I expect you to just snip out any of my red pegs that actually hit your battleships? Finally, if you're going to mention things like the paper or medium it takes to write down the idea or the costs of the bandwidth to trsnsport the data, then that would be lame and I'd like to dismiss that in advance, because these things are mere pennies compared to what pure ideas (like software, or books) sell for. I don't need absolute zero resource use to show that sustained exponential growth is possible, I just need extremely minimal use. Compared to shipping an MP3 player, shipping an MP3 itself is so close to zero resource use that it has no impact on the exponentiality of growth. Or rather, its impact is almost all positive. Economists all agree that our economy is becoming to a major extent a knowledge economy, and that more and more value is being stored in these tangibles. People are willing to pay a lot SPECIFICALLY for the intangible part of product (i.e. WAY over and above the cost of the physical resources involved). Therefore, our potential for exponential growth is increasing all the time. That all being said, I hope you are not interpreting my argument as a support for ignoring our responsibility to manage our resources in a responsible way to stop things like global warming and other damage to the environment, because to me these are two separate and not-very-related issues. Just because the economy *can* grow exponentially, doesn't mean it *should*. In fact, I think that expecting constant growth is incredibly stupid and it's like a drug to which the capitalist system is addicted. The problem with it is not that it can't be sustained, but that it promotes a greedy ravaging attitude that affects the way we think about our resources. In other words, mathematically I have to disagree with you, but I do suspect that what you might be crusading for (if anything) is something I can definitely get behind.
    24. Re:'Exponential' fails common sense. by bmgoau · · Score: 1

      Actually just because its compounded doesnt mean it exponential. A growth rate of 2% sustained over a number of years is "geometric". Exponential, in this case, implies that the growth rate is more then a factor of the original value. Thus most commonly 100% would be an exponential growth rate.

    25. Re:'Exponential' fails common sense. by Stooshie · · Score: 1

      To answer your questions one by one

      ... How do you answer the argument that all of your points work in reverse? ...

      They don't work in reverse because everyone ultimately needs resources (food, warmth, shelter). When things are difficult, no-one would be bothering about paying for someone's intellectual idea. If you ran a business based purely on intellectual ideas and things got difficult you would be out of business very quickly. It's only becasue we in the west currently have an abundance of cheap food/petrol that we have the luxury of trading in intellectual ideas. Resources always come first.

      Why is resource value MORE real than intellectual value?

      Because resources are more real. Reources are something tangible that people need. intellectual ideas are intangible and people only want them (not need them).

      ... If the two values are combined in a single product, why does the resource value take precedence, even if it is very tiny? ...

      I didn't say it takes precedence, just that the intellectual part is ultimately based on resources. Even with a brilliant idea it's difficult to implement without resources (even if it is just in man-hours (which is effectively paying for food/warmth/shelter for that person)).

      Finally, if you're going to mention things like the paper or medium it takes to write down the idea or the costs of the bandwidth to trsnsport the data, then that would be lame and I'd like to dismiss that in advance, because these things are mere pennies compared to what pure ideas (like software, or books) sell for.

      That just shows what little value we in the west place on resources. The only reason the paper you write on is cheap is because the person cutting down the trees for paper for you to write on is paid a very small amount of money. It might be a lot to them, but eventually they, and other people in their country are going to start wanting a better standard of living.

      It's the same if the ideas are written in electronic format. Every bit transferred across the net uses electricity. Where does that come from? Yes we can make things more efficient, but resources are finite.

      Everything is based in resources. Intellectual ideas, the service industry, the futures market ... , everything.

      --
      America, Home of the Brave. ... .and the Squaw.
    26. Re:'Exponential' fails common sense. by TechnicolourSquirrel · · Score: 1

      As I suspected, your objections are based on environmental moralism. I completely agree with those ethics! But ethics don't dictate mathematics. Exponential growth doesn't become impossible, just because we might wish it so. This is a question of mathematics, not your green street cred. Anyway, I understand all of your points that we *need* physical resources more, but what does that have to how they contribute to growth? I'm afraid you're confusing two entirely separate issues. Economics is about desire, *not* need. The total economic value in a system is the total that people are willing to pay for what they *desire* -- whether they need it or not is irrelevant when the money's changing hands. Therefore, tangible resources are no more *real* economically than intangible ones. BTW 'difficult to implement without' is not the same as 'ultimately based on'. Resources are also difficult to implement without valuable ideas for how to arrange and configure them. Does this mean that all resource value is 'ultimately based on' intangible value? Hopefully you see what I mean now about how all your arguments work just as well exactly in reverse. Everything you say about trees being undervalued, and standards of living in other countries, could all be true (in fact I agree with all of it), and still exponential growth could be possible. One has nothing to do with the other. I think this is a case of a moral stance attempting to dictate the nature of reality, kind of like the way feminists don't like to accept that there are real genetic differences between the sexes, etc. Once you make science politically correct it becomes useless.

    27. Re:'Exponential' fails common sense. by Stooshie · · Score: 1

      ... Economics is about desire, *not* need. ...

      I agree, when everyone is relatively well off. If food and shelter started to become a large majority of living costs for most people then it becomes completely about resources. (Just look at America in the 30s). If someone is thrown out of there house because they can't pay back their mortgage, do you think they are going to spend money on my intellectual idea? (look at the recent sub-prime problems, these people would have only been worrying about shelter)?

      Exponential economics based on nothing other than intellectual property is an illusion which only exists because we currently have plenty of resources. Why do you think wars are fought over things like water/oil/land? It's becasue they are the source of everything. People get very annoyed over intellectual property rights and go to court but they don't fight wars over them. (Wars over intellectual ideas like facism, communism etc... are nothing to do with economics they are just a "my idea for the world is better than your idea for the world" thing and not an "I own the rights to communism not you" thing).

      ... Resources are also difficult to implement without valuable ideas for how to arrange and configure them. ...

      Not particularly, planting a seed in the ground is pretty easy, and the information on how to tend the plant is easy to come by and would not be worth anything financially.

      The thing is that intellectual ideas that are currently for sale are fairly complex ideas that would be worth something in a market where consumers don't need to worry about food.

      I agree that in theory, exponential economic growth is not impossible, but resources and ideas are linked. We could survive without having complex intellectual ideas (not a great thought but we could, and have done in the past) but we can't survive without resources.

      I also agree that within one country (particularly a western one) it can appear that we are in fact living in a culture of exponential growth. But as more and more of the economy becomes intellectually based, we rely more and more on other countries for our resources (as the former producers in the west become traders/service providers). This actually makes our economy more and more fragile. If the other countries doing the producing had, say, a famine they are going to concentrate more on feeding themselves and not feeding us. They can live without our intellectual ideas but we cant live without their food.

      --
      America, Home of the Brave. ... .and the Squaw.
    28. Re:'Exponential' fails common sense. by crgrace · · Score: 1

      doubling, then doubling again, then doubling again is x^2, not 2^x. Your original example described geometric growth. Exponential growth would be: 2, 16, 65536, (very large number)

      what you described was:
      2, 4, 8, 16, 32, 64, ...

      This is geometric growth. It is a common mistake to label things exponential growth. True exponential growth is exceedingly rare, and is unsustainable.

    29. Re:'Exponential' fails common sense. by jmv · · Score: 1

      doubling, then doubling again, then doubling again is x^2, not 2^x.

      Sorry to be putting it this way, but this is elementary school stuff. x^2 is 1, 4, 9, 16, 25, 36, ... not quite what I'd call "doubling, then doubling again, then doubling again".

      Exponential growth would be: 2, 16, 65536

      So now 2^3 = 65536? That's definitely an interesting new definition of the exponent. BTW, what you're describing is the 2^(4^N) series and you're right, it's not very common.

  27. Crunching power is no value in itself by Qbertino · · Score: 1

    Contrary to what this theory says, computing power has no value in itself. I can think of no scenario where one company wins over by simply 'outcomputing' competition. It may be that global companies with a versatile infrastructure and the neccesary computing power to control it may have a competitive advantage - but that's just like saying Coca Cola has a competitive advantage over Bobs Village Brewery. Killer App Software are built by small teams of knowlegeable people on affordable hardware with relatively standard processing power. And however well that scales is mostly dependant on having the right people with the right knowledge in key IT decision-making positions (rather than having a higher cap on the IT budget). A thing more unlikely to happen in larger companies.

    I actually would think it's the other way, with large operations wasting huge amounts of CPU cycles because of bizar IT-business decisions and thus requiring more of it per dollar of turnover than smaller companies. A prime example that play in the same direction for this is the developement of the telecom market in Germany in the last few years. Within just a few years all companies have gone from wide ranges of Über-complex billing rates and tarif models to simple phone flatrates. This trend was started by new kids on the block like Arcor who quickly figured that the billing infrastructure would be far to expensive to compensate for the potential gain in income it would provide. So they introduced phone flatrates which are by orders of magnatude simpler to bill and process. And others followed suit.

    Bottom line: The theory sounds interesting, but I don't think it sticks. If it does, then only under special isolated circumstances.

    --
    We suffer more in our imagination than in reality. - Seneca
    1. Re:Crunching power is no value in itself by eudaemon · · Score: 1

      You are correct more CPU cycles are not needed for simplification of business models.

      Making things more complex can be a competitive advantage, however. Consider two
      companies with physical energy assets such as a gas pipeline.

      Company A uses pen registers to measure gas flow from wells to the pipe. The paper
      discs from the register are collected once a month, keypunched into some IT system
      to derive an average flow for the month and accounts are settled. Account settlement
      includes billing companies who fail to meet their contracted flow rates, because
      the company has to maintain certain amount of pressure in the pipe and they've created
      an issue by going below.

      Company B updates to the latest radio-based reporting systems. No keypunch errors,
      no monthly delays on reporting. Instant or near-realtime reporting of gas flows and pressures
      on both supplier (well-head) and consumer (city-gate) sides.

      Who do you think has the more complex infrastructure? Who can react instantly when they
      have a problem? Who knows they have a problem when they have a problem, even?
      Now considering a gas company can be fined megabucks for failing to meet their contractual
      obligations who is the better gas company?

      Now take that same model and apply it to the IT portions of modern day trading companies.
      People who have integrated near-realtime front/mid/back office trading systems are at a huge
      competitive trading advantage to those who rely on classic batch-based systems. Why?
      Because any trading company's fuel is their liquid assets. If they have a up-to-date
      picture of their exposure to the market, to asset classes (how much in energy? finance? heavy industry?),
      and up to date data on market movements they are in a MUCH better position than those
      who are relying day or two old data to assess who much they can or should be buying or selling
      in given market scenarios.

      I could draw similar analogies for other industries I've worked in like aerospace and medical
      but I think you see my point. Infrastructure investment can result in competitive advantages,
      risk reduction or both. They aren't just edge cases. Exponential grown in hardware though?
      Yeah, right.

    2. Re:Crunching power is no value in itself by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      The stock market stumbles you witnessed in the past weeks are due in no small part to a very real computer "arms race" between different automated traders running their hedge funds etc.

      These guys very much had the attitude that they could make money on the difference between the speed of their analysis and trade versus that of their competitors. In fact, they somewhat illustrated the folly and madness of mutually assured destruction, to carry out the metaphor a bit further. Once everyone has the same weapons, we might as well go back to everyone just having fists.

  28. A More Applicable Metaphor by DynaSoar · · Score: 1

    Since those companies that are growing more slowly are still growing the same direction as the "red shift" companies, there is no blue shift, just different shades of red. This is not a very good analogy.

    A much better one would equate companies with countries, and growth with energy useage. There's one company that's the US, growing/using much more per capita (per dollar) than the others. There's a few that are growing/using somewhat less, but in the same order of magnitude. There are more and more as you go to the low end of the list, with many not growing much more than the GDP (equivalent to using only their own energy production).

    Of course no CEO wants his company equated to something that squanders resources and dumps crap into the environment in the process. No sense of humor.

    --
    "I may be synthetic, but I'm not stupid." -- Bishop 341-B
  29. Re:Let's for a moment ignore how poor this analogy by Urza9814 · · Score: 1

    Well...the sphere is expanding...so...in general everything is getting closer to the edge...meaning on average everything is using technology...soo...they'd blue-shift if they're adopting less technology than average? Maybe the vantage point isn't the center but, say, 20% of the total distance out? Does that make any sense to you? 'cause it doesn't make much to me either......

  30. Growth and Acceleration as a metric is flawed by erroneus · · Score: 4, Insightful

    I cannot seem to understand why people cannot see this flaw as easily as I do. Success of a company is often measured by its growth rate and indeed by its rate of increase on the growth rate (acceleration). There is a limit for EVERY market. There is a saturation point for every market. And when the health of a company is measured not by its stability or state in the market place but by "growth and acceleration" I have to wonder what drives the mentality that it's actually a good idea outside of what it does for those who buy and sell stocks on the market. (So yes, that's exactly what it's all about... duh)

    So when did we all lose sight of what is good for a company? Matters like quality and customer satisfaction are no longer a consideration? And every time I hear "this company is buying that company" or "we're on a growth surge" or some other such nonsense, I have to wonder why anyone would think this sort of institutional business instability is a good idea for anyone except those who play the stock market?

    Will we have to suffer another great depression before people realize that the cause of so many of our business, labor and national monetary health problems are rooted deeply in the short-sighted notion that whatever a business does it should be as a means to provide value for shareholders? I think the answer is yes because short of a disaster, people will have little motivation to see where this all leads and turn around before it's too late. And unfortunately, while one person might catch a glimpse of the future and become more sane, the people who are still insane will consume him as a means of satisfying their growth strategy. I get the mental image of a bunch of cannibals strategizing their own growth and acceleration success plans in how to consume their environment. The logic is rather unsettling to me.

    1. Re:Growth and Acceleration as a metric is flawed by ceoyoyo · · Score: 1

      Modern capitalism requires constant growth. That's why when the economy slows down it means it's growing more slowly. If it actually shrinks for any length of time it's a catastrophe. You're right, it has to end sometime.

    2. Re:Growth and Acceleration as a metric is flawed by khallow · · Score: 1

      So when did we all lose sight of what is good for a company?

      Who's "we"? It's apparently not you and not me.

      As I see it, growth gets a lot of press for a few reasons. First, you have the lottery effect where you potentially can "win" big. A stagnant industry won't give you that sort of exciting possibilities unless you play with high leverage stock options. Second, those big opportunities are accessible to someone of small means, ie, it's a story of improving one's status and wealth. It's possible to turn meager resources into wealth through a growing company, but the stagnant company has limited growth. One is pretty much limited to a bit over the risk-free rate of return. Finally, all the new stuff occurs in growing companies. That's in part why they're growing.

      Will we have to suffer another great depression before people realize that the cause of so many of our business, labor and national monetary health problems are rooted deeply in the short-sighted notion that whatever a business does it should be as a means to provide value for shareholders?

      If only that were true. I think the problem is that it's more profitable to the managers of the company to appear to be "providing value" and syphon wealth from the company than it is to provide value.
    3. Re:Growth and Acceleration as a metric is flawed by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      And these fucktards think that they can draw down the world's resources in the race to red shifting and blue shifting. Don't they understand that there is a finite limit before complete exhaustion takes place? Capitalism is going to drive a red shift to tectonic shift in how we use technology. I predict a complete reversal of electricity/oil/nuclear (energy) consuming devices. Back to the farms boys, use your backhoes and all that primitive agricultural bullshit.

    4. Re:Growth and Acceleration as a metric is flawed by rossifer · · Score: 1

      Modern capitalism requires constant growth.
      Actually, it doesn't. What does require constant growth is highly leveraged investments. This should ring a bell (subprime loans).

      Anything that requires constant growth to succeed is almost certainly a ponzi scheme of one sort or another. Only a small fraction of all the public companies operate this way and they're all incredibly high risk. It just so happens to be the most visible companies (which is another argument as to why investing in their stock is playing into a Ponzi scheme).

      Regards,
      Ross
  31. Resources do not equal production by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    So my infinite-loop application which requires gigabytes of RAM and disk space will create profits for me even if it produces nothing? That doesn't seem right.

  32. Hardly massive... by gwynevans · · Score: 1

    One of the counter factors is that it is often easier to do massive data chomping on a desktop PC. For example, Oracle servers are almost always overburdened and therefore slow, so that people tend to download raw data to MS-Access and similar tools and process it themselves faster.
    That's all well and good, for as far as I goes, but I'd have to quibble with your description of 'massive' when referring to anything on a desktop PC - unless you were thinking in the Terabyte range?
    1. Re:Hardly massive... by Tablizer · · Score: 1

      Well what I find is that often you don't need the entire data set, but a smaller portion of it, such as only a handful of the columns or just the portion for your particular region. The original might be Terabyte size, but the portion that needs chomping may be only a couple of gigs. Note that I am not saying that *all* can be done client-side, just a fairly large portion. If you query the original source correctly, often you can get a very skinney result set with which to work with for a particular need.

  33. Repeat after me... by Stu+Charlton · · Score: 5, Insightful

    There is no correlation between IT spending and productivity or profitability.

    This is the same old saw that hardware firms used in the 1980s-1990s. Gartner used to say you should spend on IT as a proportion of your revenue.

    But numerous studies, based on publicly available data, debunk that view as bullshit.

    It's not that IT is bad -- it's just that you have to blame or praise management for the proper application of it. Which is just another way of saying "you can't spend your way through problems without thought".

    NOW, there's a valid argument here, but it's a lot more subtle than the bylines. One has to dig into Papadopoulos' quotes to get the jist of this as: "you should have the management insight to take advantage of the inherent cost savings that are due to Moore's law." This has been hampered for decades due to inflexibility with the software -- something that virtualization and utility computing is seeking to fix, and an area that Sun wants to compete in. Indeed, this is a big deal.

    But it doesn't mean your computing needs will skyrocket, unless your management has an insightful, productive application for all of that power. Google does (selling advertisements along side day-to-day networked computing needs), but I'm not sure the rest of the Fortune 500 has turned to apply that level of creativity to their situation.

    --
    -Stu
    1. Re:Repeat after me... by kabocox · · Score: 1

      It's not that IT is bad -- it's just that you have to blame or praise management for the proper application of it. Which is just another way of saying "you can't spend your way through problems without thought".

      This is why I'd want everyone that's always shouting to increase educational spending have really painful things happen to them. Actually, I think the same about folks wanting a drastic increase in NASA budgets for any manned space missions and many other pet projects. It's not just about money. It's about what actual resources/people/power that you get with the money and how you use it.

  34. He's an idiot, just as most CTO/VP/yadda yadda are by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    ... HERE is why:

    They all exist at a level of assumption. They assume that "someone" will be available to implement their lofty ideas, when they themselves have not the technical capability to do so: They do not have the skills or knowledge needed, you see.

    But, they get paid a LOT more, than those of us that DO - why is that?

    Hell, I deal with programmers, engineers, every day - and many of them are as clueless as the best of the 900K+ UID Slashdotters here (Hell, it's possible/probable that many of them ARE the same - THAT would explain a lot).

    But, they all seem to think that since they've managed to create a "perfect" network, at home - that they are qualified to criticize the design and implementation of a network that spans the globe, and encompasses ten thousand plus nodes.

    Only, they aren't, you see.

    If any one of them got called out, at, say, 3:00 AM EST, for a major network failure, and had to fix it, because it was their job, they'd shit their pants.

  35. Hold on, something about this doesn't compute by Whuffo · · Score: 1
    IT assets cost real money. If a company purchases large amounts of "CPU cycles" it requires a large expenditure. How that translates to a faster growing business is unclear. Maybe if we rephrase the source article a bit it'll make more sense?

    Let's try: "Company X says that buying lots of company X products will cause your business to grow at an exponential rate".

    Aha! Now I see - it's just more marketing doublespeak. I wonder if you could get Sun to put these claims in writing?

  36. Re:Let's for a moment ignore how poor this analogy by The+Living+Fractal · · Score: 1

    Sure qualifies as a 'lightning-bolt insight' in my book. It's going to change the face of IT forever!

    --
    I do not respond to cowards. Especially anonymous ones.
  37. metaphor alert by m2943 · · Score: 1

    What kind of stupid metaphor is that? Red shift means that they are moving away from the observer fast, blue shift means that they are moving towards the observer fast.

    As for the "theory", mainly what you're seeing is that fast growing companies buy a lot more hardware; they do that for two reasons: (1) they are adding customers and (2) they don't have time to tune their software, so they are using disproportionate amounts of resources. But the cause is fast growth, and buying lots of hardware is the effect.

    Oh, one thing that's pretty clear: many of those companies are not buying Sun products. Why would they?

    1. Re:metaphor alert by dbIII · · Score: 1

      What kind of stupid metaphor is that?

      It's being used as a "treknical term." It doesn't have to mean anything it just has to sound new and important.

    2. Re:metaphor alert by Zarf · · Score: 1

      What kind of stupid metaphor is that? Red shift means that they are moving away from the observer fast, blue shift means that they are moving towards the observer fast. I'm pretty certain this was done deliberately. Imagine you are the observer and you are chasing after the star. If the star is blue shifting you are catching it... if they are red shifting they are leaving you behind. Do you want to get left behind? Do you want to blue shift? No, you want to be the one whom everyone else sees as red-shifting. You want to be the winners of the race. Buy Sun! Rah rah, red shift!
      --
      [signature]
    3. Re:metaphor alert by m2943 · · Score: 1

      I'm pretty certain this was done deliberately. Imagine you are the observer and you are chasing after the star.

      Why would I want to chase after Sun? If they want my money, they should damned well blue-shift towards me.

  38. Here's how you can do it by markov_chain · · Score: 1

    1. Start a business
    2. Open a no-fee savings account and deposit at least $10
    3. Presto, your business is now growing exponentially!

    --
    Tsunami -- You can't bring a good wave down!
    1. Re:Here's how you can do it by quanticle · · Score: 1

      Nope. You forgot to account for the fact that inflation is exponential too. Given the rates I've seen for no-fee accounts around here, you'll be lucky if your money isn't shrinking (in terms of purchasing power).

      --
      We all know what to do, but we don't know how to get re-elected once we have done it
    2. Re:Here's how you can do it by markov_chain · · Score: 1

      I didn't forget, actually inflation helps. Without inflation his account would overflow eventually, exponential growth being what it is. But this way, if the rates are exactly the same it can go on forever. I guess the government will need to denominate the dollar a bunch of times along the way. (I remember when they did this in ex-Yu, it was a riot and I mean the funny one).

      --
      Tsunami -- You can't bring a good wave down!
  39. dwarves by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    dwarves

  40. The fat one has so little hair by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    That must be why he throws the chair!

    With apologies to Dr. Suess. :-)

  41. hype or space? by wytcld · · Score: 1

    There are, at minimum, some companies which need massive amounts of computation, which needs to scale not just with their markets, but with their product development - where their edge largely consists in finding useful things to do with massive amounts of computation before their competition scoops them on whatever the next idea to take off will be.

    Yes, in an arms race you often end up with in the silly spot of "But what do we need 10,000 nukes for." Well, what you need 'em for, if you want to be the only superpower on your globe, is to hopefully make the competition quit before they begin to seriously challenge you. Eh, bad analogy. The point is, in this "arms race" the "nukes" also contribute essentially to your products. And the people building your nukes had better be fully aware of the degree of your need, and competitive with the other armorers.

    Sun, first in fusion.

    --
    "with their freedom lost all virtue lose" - Milton
  42. Isn't the GDP exponential? by mdmkolbe · · Score: 2, Informative

    I would have thought the GDP was exponential since money tends to breed more money.

    Even if it wasn't, wouldn't the presence of exponentially growing companies force the GDP to go exponential after a while. Maybe such companies will quickly die before they get big enough to do that, but a bad business strategy that leads to a quick death sounds like a bad business strategy (modulo the Enrons and SCOs of the world).

  43. How nice! IT resource envy! by WheelDweller · · Score: 1

    Sounds like a lot of things coming out of the Democratic Party and their underlings....like the USA is using "too much" of the sunlight? That was just a week or two ago.

    Sheesh...well, "Divide and conquer".

    --
    --- For a good time mail uce@ftc.gov
  44. Re:So companies that innovate will make more money by ToasterMonkey · · Score: 1

    Are they growing? Fast?

  45. And the there's the... by Quiet_Desperation · · Score: 1

    brown shift theory, where any and all overblown theories about the interwebs invariably approach utter bullshit at an increasing rate.

  46. Exponential is the norm. by bwcbwc · · Score: 1
    Exponential growth for a business isn't even possible, unless maybe you start out really, really small, and for a short amount of time.

    Not exactly. Most financial measures of growth are compounded measures, which are exponential functions. For example, compound interest of 5% gives exponential growth of 1.05^n, where n is the number of compounding periods. When economists say that the GDP is growing at 3% or that an investment is giving an annual rate of return of 10%, those are (averaged) exponential growth rates.

    You're neglecting two factors that contribute to long-term growth: inflation and productivity. Inflation is false growth, because it mainly reflects the amount by which the growth of the money supply (including credit) increases faster than the over all economy (supply of funds growing faster than the demand). People can charge $150 instead of $120, but the profit margins remain constant, because the suppliers charge more too. This is distinguished from price increases based on supply and demand of the product itself, or due to speculation.

    Productivity is "real" growth because it reflects the ability to produce more goods from the same resources. Again productivity is measured as a percentage increase, which tranlsates to exponential growth when averaged over time.

    --
    We are the 198 proof..
  47. Heh. Except he doesn't say that by Moraelin · · Score: 1

    Heh. Except it's Sun's CTO and he doesn't actually say that. What he says is, "companies who buy lots and lots of expensive hardware will experience spectacular growth, while those who don't buy our crap will be left behind!"

    Which doesn't even make sense as "growth equals growth", since not everyone is a software company. E.g., for a car manufacturer or someone like Nike or Coca Cola, exactly how does overspending on IT translate into faster growth? While _some_ benefits do exist, and I've seen them first hand, the factor is fairly small and that growth-because-of-IT is essentially capped. In the end as a manufacturing company you live or die by your marketing and your product quality (sadly, in that order), not by how Web 2.0 your site is.

    E.g., sure, you can save some money by moving to an online relationship with your suppliers, but even then:

    1. You need to be a certain size where you can actually apply some volume and pressure to negotiating discounts, because otherwise everyone will just direct you to their list price, online or not. And at that size, exponential growth pretty much stopped anyway.

    2. It only goes so far. You might be able to squeeze a few more bucks out of the suppliers by making them compete with each other online, but there's a limit even to that. They won't go into negative profits just for you. (And if they did, they'll go out of that market soon.) So at some point you're pretty much capped there, everyone started doing the same thing too, and adding more expensive servers won't help any more.

    3. Doubly so because suppliers of big companies are a bit of an exclusive club. You can push prices down only so much, before it comes at the expense of quality, and that you really don't want to drop too much. So before (and after) accepting someone in such an online process, there'll be a lot of checking if they can supply the quality you want, the quantities they need, if they have anything to lose (suing them for damages won't do much if they're broke), if they have a reasonable reputation, etc.

    4. For the same reason as above, you're not saving that much manpower and other such costs. Plus, in addition to the above, a lot of deals will still be done in person or on the golf course. (E.g., don't think Dell negotiates its discounts from Intel by just pointing them at a reverse auction URL.) Buying a big expensive server doesn't actually mean you can fire half the buyers and let the software do everything for you from now on.

    5. Some of the deals are just too much of a pain to squeeze in the inherently OCD structure of a computer program. E.g., sure, you could code things so flexibly that you leave room for such stuff as "we'll get a big discount on component B if we get component A only from these guys" or "we'll get a discount from Intel if we _don't_ deal with AMD" or whatnot. But it's a pain in the rear, and chances are you won't foresee everything. Humans are flexible and creative, computers aren't. Sometimes trying to squeeze everything into the same rigid one-size-fits-all algorithm, is just a high-tech way to commit seppuku.

    Etc.

    And the same, or similar, applies to other aspects you could put online or on the intranet too.

    Plus some extras. E.g., if you put your sales online, not everyone is Dell. Some products just aren't bought primarily online. I don't think many people buy their soda online, so Coca Cola won't see much benefit there.

    Plus, as the final counter-example, see the dot-com bubble. There were _plenty_ of people eager to be the corporate equivalent of the dumbest consumerist. People who just got their money out of nowhere, and proceeded to blow it on things that were little more than status symbols: over-sized servers, fast cars, impressive buildings, 10 times the employees they actually needed (especially programmers and IT), etc. By his red-shift theory, those should be today's new Microsoft. In reality, the vast majority just went bankrupt. 'Nuff said.

    --
    A polar bear is a cartesian bear after a coordinate transform.
  48. It's a different mechanism, though by Moraelin · · Score: 2, Insightful

    Why? It's never stopped bubbles from forming or bursting in the past, going all the way back to the famous South Sea Bubble.

    Well, that's insightful in its own way, but you have to remember that bubbles are caused slightly differently.

    Bubbles are based on greed. Pure, distilled, unadulterated greed. At some point the prospect of making lots of undeserved money, is causing people's brains to switch to the wishful thinking that some greater dope will take the fall. People keep dumping money into a bubble precisely _because_ it's a bubble and keeps expanding, so any bubble-goods (shares, tulip bulbs, etc) you buy now, can hopefully be sold more expensive later.

    The Dutch tulip craze, for example, was based on the idea that if you buy a tulip bulb for 100 guldens (a huge sum at the time), some other idiot will later buy it from you for 1000 (a king's ransom.)

    The dot-com bubble, for example was a 1-2 punch of greed:

    1. The idea that you can defraud the advertisers for as much money as you want to. Advertising rates were originally calculated for sites with exactly 1 banner on the front page, and it tended to be relevant too, so people actually clicked on it. Then someone came with the idea that you can make sites with wall-to-wall banners and the advertisers will pay you hundreds of thousands per month for just having a homepage. And surely the advertisers won't catch on. (And when advertisers were slow to react, some waiting to see if more ads actually mean more clicks and sales, it just "confirmed" the idea that it's free money for anyone who wants to take them.)

    A lot of companies were bought for a lot of money or made huge profits, apparently for no other reason than having a web server with lots of ads. Others were bought for other reasons, such as actually having a service and a share of the users that someone else was willing to subsidize as part of their empire (e.g., ICQ or Hotmail), but it fit in the same general picture: make a high-tech company, get bought for hundreds of millions.

    This helped "bootstrap" the bubble.

    2. As I was saying before, it kept going precisely _because_ it was a bubble. A lot of companies were formed not because they believed there was a valid business plan in just having an "I love cats" web page, but to get a lot of money in an IPO. (I actually worked for a company whose _sole_ business plan was "we'll have an IPO and people will give us hundreds of millions!") And a lot of VCs invested in those companies, not because they genuinely believed that they'll work great in the long term, but because they hoped they can wait until right before they peak, and sell every share before it crashes and burned. And stock advisors were known to even directly manipulate that mechanism, e.g., by advising people to buy the shares of some imploding dot-com just as they were selling their shares in it.

    Even the absurd unsustainable structure of a dot-com in that bubble wasn't genuine stupidity in most cases, but deliberately trying to have the same image as the dot-coms that got millions in IPO before or got bought. If the ones that peaked sky high before consisted of hundreds of programmers and tens of millions of dollars worth of servers just for a web site that sold nothing, the new ones tried to look exactly the same. It was a "pick me" marker, if you will, rather than just believing that lots of expensive hardware equals growth.

    At one point, some even lost sight of the goal to get and retain lots of users, which was (A) the original way to get lots of advertising money, and (B) later the dot-com bubble's excuse: "see, we'll get millions of users first, and sometime later actually figure out a way to sell them stuff." (E.g., the dot-com I worked for, had such memorable management quotes as, "no, we don't want a forum, we don't want users to post all sorts of crap on our servers" and "no, chatrooms are just for cybersex and other crap, we don't need one" and so on for all the proposed ways to g

    --
    A polar bear is a cartesian bear after a coordinate transform.
  49. GDP grows exponentially by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1, Informative

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_ GDP_(real)_growth_rate
    all the numbers listed in that wikipedia page are the k in the exponential differential equation dx/dy = ky.

  50. Only in a fantasy context by paladinwannabe2 · · Score: 1

    Tolkien created the spellings 'elves' and 'dwarves' instead of elfs and dwarfs. Elves and Dwarves are the typical spelling if you're talking about humanoids in Fantasy, while elfs (for talking about old fairy tales) and dwarfs (for talking about short humans) remains the proper spelling in those contexts. So the grandparent is saying "Humans with dwarfism get the short end of the stick" as opposed to "Humanoids living in Ironforge get the short end of the stick"

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    1. Re:Only in a fantasy context by nuzak · · Score: 1

      > Tolkien created the spellings 'elves' and 'dwarves' instead of elfs and dwarfs

      [[citation needed]]. My suspicion is he used an alternate spelling already in common use.

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    2. Re:Only in a fantasy context by Mycroft_VIII · · Score: 1

      Or possibly an older spelling. He did a lot of interesting things with the names of his characters (that hint at later plot elements) and was, IIRC, and was a english professor.
          Then again he did make up a couple of languages, so what's a creative spelling or two?

      Mcyroft

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  51. I sense a new Dilbert comic coming soon ... by mr_death · · Score: 1

    ... with Mr. Papadopoulos as the Pointy-Haired Boss[tm].

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  52. Umm... by Impy+the+Impiuos+Imp · · Score: 1

    Oil companies grew exponentially for awhile...then levelled off. Then cars were invented and they grew exponentially again...then levelled off.

    Car companies grew exponentially...then levelled off.

    Every new thing grows like this, then levels off to more or less population growth. (With new smaller exponential growths as new markets, e.g. China, open up...)

    Computers, software, etc. are just more of the same. But we've only been at it, large-scale, for 25 years. 25 years after Ford started, you could still get into cars pretty easily. 25 years after oil, mass-produced cars hadn't even been invented yet.

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  53. $$$ != Management by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1, Insightful

    I was recently approached by a neighbor who run a small mid-term rental company, meaning that they rent things for 1-30 weeks). His business is growing and he is having a hard time tracking and billing for all his assets. He thinks a little computer program could really bail him out of his grwoing problems. According to sun, his business will be saved if he buys some hardware.

    I don't think hardware or software will save his business. He needs to hire someone who can manage his assets. They could write every asset on its own 3x5 card and record a rental on each line of the card. Every week, they just go through each 3x5 and generate their billings.

    I personally would use software, but if you can't think of how to do it with pencil and paper, you have a problem that is more fundamental to your business than the software can solve.

  54. You may be correct by paladinwannabe2 · · Score: 1

    'Elves' was the old way of spelling it, and it appears that other authors used it when referring to the Norse Elves (as opposed to the small winged elfs).

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