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Is the Future of the Electric Car Industry in Silicon Valley?
fiannaFailMan writes "The San Jose Mercury News is speculating about Silicon Valley's potential for becoming the Detroit of a future electric car industry. Among the valley's strengths is an ability to adapt to rapidly changing business environments and develop new business models, something that the Big Three can hardly be accused of. On the downside, it's a capital-intensive business and isn't like raising $40 million and having an IPO. Apparently there are five companies in the valley already pursuing electric car technology, most notably Tesla motors."
In some markets nuclear power is an option. If the NIMBY folks could only be placated, expansion would be rapid.
On the other hand we've all seen how successfull the big three have been when it comes to leaving big oil. I really think that its going to take some companies thinking outside the traditional car culture to have success with electrics and why wouldn't Silicon Valley be a good place for that? Not to mention that the state of California would be interested in supporting that. Now about that GM electric, would that be the one that they haven't been able to get right in 20 years?
It's a leather thing
regardless of how much pollution is generated at a power plant somewhere, there will be a hell of a lot less pollution blowing in our faces in the street, in the cities. This means better health for citizens.
I think centralization of power production (that is, not produced in car) is the key. Get the electric car tech sorted, and have other solutions for producing the power dealt with else where. It's abstracted away, a power input at the service station works regardless of where/how the power is generated.
Now, if only we could get John Carmack working on fusion reactor technology...
That unless they can find a way for Big Oil (c)(tm) to get a huge slice of the revenue pie, there will be no electric cars in our future...
It's more likely that until there is an electric engine capable of hauling an Articulated lorry several hundred miles without a refill that they won't be widely used. The economy won't be able to do without all those trucks taking goods around 24/7.
Ordinary cars for that matter. I don't know the travel habits of your average American, but if a car couldn't be expected to go more than a couple of hundred miles between top ups you'd have problems doing anything but commuting. Unless that is, there are refill stations *everywhere*. That would cost rather a lot.
Yes, it's interesting how Silicon Valley may be where new car tech breakthroughs will happen, but the comparison here is misleading. The reason Detroit was the automobile mecca of the US was because that's where all of the cars were made. That's where hundreds of thousands of people toiled to send car after car off the assembly line. Do you think that the same is going to happen in Silicon Valley? SV will be the same thing it's been for the past several decades . . . a place where ideas and technology are born. And like a lot of the technology invented in SV, it will get manufactured in Taiwan, China, etc.
An all electric car is quite a paradigm shift that is very difficult for existing auto makers to pursue.
While similar in form and function, electric cars are monumentally different from gasoline and/or diesel powered vehicles. It's much easier for a company such as Tesla to start their production model making cars numbering in the hundreds and ramp up their scale than it is for a huge manufacturer to go from the large scale and start small.
However, it's still a matter of who meets the magic numbers. I submit that the first company to develop an all electric car that will travel 300 miles on one charge, can recharge in less than 30 minutes plugged in, will recharge slowly in the sun on its own and costs less than $40,000 will sell like hot cakes.
Whether that's an old and established manufacturer or a new one like Tesla remains to be seen.
The way I've seen the folks in Detroit treat the concept of an electric car, and the consumers in America respond to buying one, the future of the electric car is far more likely to be in places like Kyoto, Tokyo, and Shanghai.
(Our next car will most likely be an electric/hybrid RAV-4 or CR-V.)
-Rob
Biblical fiscal responsibility
Dozens of electric car startup companies have tried during those same 20 years. There have been many hyped up Teslas in the past and their effort amounted to almost nothing. Only a couple of enthusiasts really bought these cars at the end of the day.
I think that it is highly unlikely that any small startup company will ever join the ranks of Toyota, Volkswagen or GM. Competitive cars are just too complicated to design and build nowadays. Think about Airbags, ESP, the highly complicated and efficient manufacturing process. The only new big car companies will be started by governements of emerging powers like China, India, etc. It is much easier for the big guyes to make the comparatively simple change from ICEs to electric engines than it is for some boffin in a garage to build a good and modern car around an electric engine.
The established car companies have many designs in their drawers for all kinds of cars, including energy efficient cars. The consumer kept demanding something different.
"The San Jose Mercury News is speculating about Silicon Valley's potential for becoming the Detroit of a future electric car industry."
That is unlikely. Silicon Valley is not cheap real estate. I'm sure California's laws are also rather restrictive regarding employment law. The trend in automobile manufacturing is to move to rural areas where the real estate is much cheaper, unions are farther away, or the state's employment laws are less favorable to the employee. Thus, you have more manufacturing jobs showing up in rural Indiana and the Southern States.
Based on that model, I disagree with that conclusion. Sure, SilVal is good for innovation, but manufacturing is not innovation. Development of new electric car solutions may happen there, but the day-to-day construction (i.e., "Detroit") will not be there. Too darn expensive.
What those who want activist courts fear is rule by the people.
Sure, the boys and girls in the valley could probably build a great electric car, but there is more to it than that. Take safety for example. You like those fancy airbags and "crumple zones" that protect you in a crash? It takes a lot of R&D to get those things right. The Big 3 in motor city have a lot of issues, but they still have a lot of experience with the whole car building thing, especially from a safety standpoint.
We are also overlooking the obvious issue with any alternative fuel: Infrastructure. Electric cars, fuel cell cars, E85 cars just won't catch on unless you can easily drive coast-to-coast, and everywhere in between, with a support network to fill'er up. The last you want is to be on %50 battery life and see a sign that says next electric fill up station 800 miles.
and cleanup (Yucca mountain) is more expensive than building
This can be drastically reduced for new nuke plants as, like select few newer nuke plants in Europe, they can recycle their nuclear waste on site, allowing them to drastically reduce both the quantity and the frequency at which it is pushed to places like Yucca.
Last I heard, on site recycling has proved to be cost effective, safe, and environmentally friendly because of the reduced waste being pushed off site.
As far as I know, almost zero recycling outside of the universities in the US and zero is done on site.
I like how you included the entire production chain for the electric, but completely ignored that for gas. I'm pretty sure gasoline doesn't magically appear in the underground tanks at the gas stations. Why don't you do a fair comparison and include the drilling, pumping, refining and transporting of gasoline too?