Slashdot Mirror


Google Goes Green

foobsr writes "Google today announced its RE<C project to make renewable energy cheaper than coal in the near future. The company, and its charitable arm google.org, plan to invest hundreds of millions of dollars in the initiative. Larry Page stated: 'With talented technologists, great partners and significant investments, we hope to rapidly push forward. Our goal is to produce one gigawatt of renewable energy capacity that is cheaper than coal. We are optimistic this can be done in years, not decades.'"

40 of 374 comments (clear)

  1. Great scott! by DeeQ · · Score: 3, Funny

    1.21 gigawatts? 1.21 gigawatts? Great Scott!

    1. Re:Great scott! by skoaldipper · · Score: 5, Funny

      Professor Page, are you telling me you built a tiiiime machine, out of a Priiiiius?!

      --
      I hope, when they die, cartoon characters have to answer for their sins.
    2. Re:Great scott! by ShieldW0lf · · Score: 4, Interesting

      Coal, and fossil fuels in general, are widely recognized to be almost at, at, or past peak production on a global level, and will therefore become increasingly scarce, and therefore increasingly expensive, as time goes by.

      Therefore, anyone wishing to create renewable energy more cost effective than coal doesn't need to do anything beyond keep trying and not get worse, and they will get there eventually.

      As far as technical challenges go, this is right up there with "hitting the ground".

      --
      -1 Uncomfortable Truth
    3. Re:Great scott! by necro81 · · Score: 4, Informative

      Peak Oil is debated - have we already reached it, will it be in 10 years, 20 years? I tend to think we are living through it more or less now. However, I heard a representative from BP speak recently that indicated that, if demand drives the cost of oil up enough, there's enough tar sands and oil shale out there to push peak oil back a long ways. Sure, that's BP talking, and oil shale and tar sands are shit kinds of energy, but it is a facet of the debate.

      Peak Coal, on the other hand, is decades or centuries off. The United States has enough coal reserves that we could be energy independent for a few hundred years. China, India, and Russia have lots of reserves, too.

      Of course, there are prohibitive problems with becoming an all-coal energy economy for a few hundred years. I advocate that we move away from coal (and oil) as fast as possible. The point is, though, that there's still a lot of coal out there.

    4. Re:Great scott! by polar+red · · Score: 3, Informative

      uhuh ... nuclear power never got that subsidy ... RIGHT !
      Let's put something straight : total subsidies for solar are not even close to those of nuclear.

      --
      Yes, I'm left. You have a problem with that?
    5. Re:Great scott! by GooberToo · · Score: 4, Informative

      are widely recognized to be almost at, at, or past peak production on a global level,

      I find it interesting that so many people have such a poor concept of the current situation. What people fail to recognize is that we are artificially reaching peak production. Contrary to popular belief, the world's most cost effective refinery was shut down less than a decade ago. No new refineries in the US are being built. Keep this in mind when you contrast this with the fact that more oil is currently known to exist than any other time in human history and its widely believed huge undiscovered reserves have yet to be located.

      Right now, artificial scarcity is causing production peaks. Artificial scarcity helps keep fuel prices high so oil companies have zero incentive to create new refineries. What most people also fail to understand is crude comes in varying qualities. The per barrel price you constantly see quoted represents the highest grade crude. What you don't see is the "junk" crude is often half or a quarter the price. The low quality crude can be processed but requires special refineries. In the US, we only have one or two refineries which can process high sulfur crude. Processing high sulfur crude is actually equally profitable but requires additional investment from the oil community a it requires expansion in processing capability.

      Long story short, there is actually zero factual information to suggest we are anywhere near peak. What the misinformed often quote as peak are simply observing artificial limitations which are kept in check by the oil companies and further compounded by their refusal to increase production capabilities while having reduced capabilities less than a decade ago. The only question is, how much are you willing to pay for your fuel?

      With oil prices as they are now, most of the known oil sources become viable, but again, no one wants to do that because what is already available is far more profitable. And heck, if you can use up your competition's supply, it makes your reserve all the more valuable down the road.

      Is greed really so easily confused for peak production?

    6. Re:Great scott! by keithjr · · Score: 3, Insightful

      Is greed really so easily confused for peak production?

      Either way, the correct course of action is still strikingly clear. Move away from it. As quickly as possible. Either we escape an artificially-created economic sink, or we reduce our dependence on a an energy source that is in its twilight. Win-Win, if you ask me.

    7. Re:Great scott! by MobyDisk · · Score: 4, Informative

      Good points.

      Part of the problem is that we don't have an accurate accounting of how much oil is left in the easy-to-get-to locations. The middle eastern sources are depleting, but they refuse to acknowledge how much. Every year they say that the amount of oil left in the ground is the same as it was the previous year. This is because they are limited in how much they can extract by international treaties. If they can only extract 5% a year, then the only way they can keep production up is to claim that the amount of oil is the same. So they lie. We may find that those oil fields run dry all of a sudden and nobody knew it was going to happen.

      As you point out, other sources can be exploited - but it requires investment and time to setup. And unless we know how much is left in the easy sources it is hard to gauge when to invest in the hard ones. In the end, it doesn't matter: We need to move to renewable for this reason, and 1000 others.

    8. Re:Great scott! by killbill! · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Nonsense. You're confusing the price of crude oil and the price of gasoline in your argument.

      Artificially reducing refinery capacity does reduce gasoline supply - which definitely increases the price of gasoline. BUT it also reduces the demand for crude oil - which lowers its price!

      And yet, the price of crude oil not only has gone up, but it has gone up faster than gasoline prices this year (http://www.wtrg.com/daily/oilandgasspot.html). I suspect you might have to further refine your crude conspiracy theory. ;)

    9. Re:Great scott! by jcaplan · · Score: 3, Informative

      The cost of solar and wind have been going down fast for three reasons:
      - improved technology (larger wind turbines, better generators, new solar cell types)
      - more efficient production techniques (production of larger solar panels see: http://www.businesswire.com/portal/site/appliedmaterials/index.jsp?epi-content=GENERIC&newsId=20060905005378&ndmHsc=v2*A1167656400000*B1178676791000*C4102491599000*DgroupByDate*J2*N1002992&newsLang=en&beanID=547561197&viewID=news_view) or check out eSolar's modular approach to thermal solar
      - economies of scale as production volumes increase

      Government subsidies have reduced the cost to consumers in certain markets such as Germany and California, but are not the primary driver of the price decreases we have seen in these two technologies over the last three decades. Currently, demand is so high for solar electric, that suppliers cannot keep up and prices are inflated and will remain so until more of the planned and in-progress photovoltaic production plants come on line. The solar industry is looking to grow beyond their current marked of subsidized installations and specialty installations (off grid, mobile power, etc). Solarbuzz.com states: "As a guide, the industry is looking to drive module prices down to $1.50 - $2.00/Watt over the next decade, if it is to make large inroads in to the grid tied electricity market, without subsidy." The price is currently $4-5/Watt range. In 1982 it was $27/Watt. The goal is aggressive, given that current price is affected by the supply constraint and the amount of investment in alternative power that is occurring, we may be pleasantly surprised.

      The purpose of these subsidies to to grow the industry to the point where the economies of scale are large enough and the technologies are improved enough that the subsidies become unnecessary to the continued growth of the market. We are not at that point yet, but the cost reductions in both solar and wind have been dramatic. Currently industrial solar installation cost $0.21/KWh and produce their peak power at times of peak demand, increasing the value of their power. (Figures from solarbuzz.com . Distribution charge, typically $0.05/KWh, might not be included here). The US national average electric rate is $0.095/KWh. Tuscon Electric Charge residential customers with time of use meters $0.184/KWh in the daytime in summer and $0.126/KWh in the winter peak power times. These prices are getting pretty close to where unsubsidized solar costs currently are. Further increases in fossil fuel prices and improvements in solar will help to close this gap.

      There is another justification for subsidies as well. If we were to take an economist's perspective on this issue, we might see that there are certain "externalities" in traditional energy production. An externality is a cost that is not reflected in the price of a product. For instance, the price of electricity from coal does not include the cost of treating people for asthma caused by coal plant emissions. While few would propose charging power companies a surcharge for their health effects, since this calculation would be extremely difficult to get right and politically impossible to implement, this lack of a surcharge can be seen as individuals and governments subsidizing the cost of coal power generation through their health care expenditures as well as through damage to their citizen's health. The government will actually save some money in health care costs by subsidizing alternative energy which would replace dirty coal plants and might see an interest in protecting the health of its citizens. Clearly certain subsidies would have more impact in reducing external costs than others. Some people might want to include other externalities such as

    10. Re:Great scott! by IamTheRealMike · · Score: 5, Insightful
      Sorry, but I have to disagree.
      1. The current problem with rapidly escalating oil prices is not related to US refinery capacity. If the bottleneck was at the refinery level, crude would be cheap and gasoline would be expensive. In fact, both are expensive.

      2. A statement like "more oil is currently known to exist than any other time in human history" is absurd, and I wonder how you arrived at it. We don't know how much oil exists, partly because some of it is - as you say - "undiscovered", ie we think it might be out there but we don't know for sure - but mostly because OPEC lie about the size of their remaining reserves. Data quality in the oil industry is poor to non-existant. We don't even have accurate figures for how much we pump out of the ground each day, let alone how much we have left.

      3. You are confused about the pricing of sour crudes. Yes, they are cheaper, but not significantly so. The spot price of Mexican Maya on the 16th was $79, only about $10-$12 less than the price of the high quality stuff. Given that oil used to cost $10-$12 the fact that sour has risen to slightly less than sweet is really of no consequence.

      4. You say there's no factual information to indicate that we're at peak. But world production has been flat since the summer of 2004, despite progressively increasing prices (due to increased demand from Asia) providing every incentive to pump more. This behavior has not been seen before and strongly suggests that world production capacity is maxed out - there are huge wins to be had by any company or country that can significantly boost production, but doing an analysis of an oil major like ExxonMobil, will show that their existing fields decline as fast as they can replace them. To me this is a pretty good sign that we're at peak - inability to raise production despite huge demand.

      5. The whole "it's an oil industry conspiracy" won't wash, sorry. This isn't like the computer industry where one or two companies can dominate the landscape - oil is a commodity, and the price is not set by the oil companies but by supply and demand. It's the simplest market you can get. Anybody who is sitting on top of a giant oil field right now would be an idiot to leave it for tomorrow, because there's no guarantee we'll want that oil tomorrow - maybe there's a recession and oil demand is reduced. Maybe we discover better ways to power our cars.

        Right now there's a lead-in time of at least 5 years from discovering a field to first commercial oil, sometimes longer. Even if you start today, there is risk. If you leave it longer, the risk gets even bigger. At least for private oil companies, there are huge financial incentives to boost production and thus get a leg up over your competitors in stock price and profits. To claim that the entire industry is in a cartel to deliberately hold back production is to reveal your lack of knowledge around discovery trends, skills shortages and the impact on depletion rates of modern production techniques like horizontal wells/waterflooding.

    11. Re:Great scott! by The+Great+Pretender · · Score: 3, Insightful
      "If we actually paid directly for all of these costs, I am certain the cost of fossil fuel energy would be triple it's current point of use cost or more."

      And if we actually had to pay triple for our power we all, personally, would suddenly find ways to use less (or reallocate our spending) and companies would put more money into find better alternatives.

      I'm all for jacking up the price and removing subsidies.

      --
      A positive attitude may not solve all your problems, but it will annoy enough people to make it worth the effort.
    12. Re:Great scott! by Monkey · · Score: 3, Informative

      I can second the impact on the effect it has on the landscape. I flew over the tar sands of northern Alberta recently and it looks like a nuclear wasteland from a science fiction movie. After they're done ripping all the bitumen out of the ground, that region is probably going to be a complete mess for centuries. It's a classic example of short term gain at the cost of long term devastation. It's the kind of shortsighted activity you'd expect from a third world country.

    13. Re:Great scott! by timeOday · · Score: 3, Insightful

      ... but the risk will NEVER be zero.
      The problems with coal (including dead miners, radiation - more than nuclear, soot, and of course CO2) can't even be called "risks," they're already everyday facts.
  2. Hmmmm by tgd · · Score: 4, Funny

    The solution to this problem must be out on the internet somewhere... if only I had a website I could use to try to find it...

  3. Vested interest by gilesjuk · · Score: 3, Interesting

    Given how much money it costs to keep Google's kit running, it's in their interests to look for cheaper energy. It's an investment they hope will increase future profitability.

    Has Bill Gates or Steve Jobs made any similar pledges?

    1. Re:Vested interest by Yoozer · · Score: 5, Funny

      Jobs doesn't have to make pledges; they just have to figure out how to convert the radiation of his reality distortion field to energy, and to use the pressure of the smugness from his customers to power iPods. Ballmer is currently busy with research to tap heat from system administrator's heads when updating, and he's already made great strides to put the kinetic energy of chairs in something useful.

  4. Nuk-u-lar by Orne · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Spent fuel -> breeder reactor -> fissionable fuel, and it's already cheaper than coal.

    Oh wait, we don't like that kind of renewable resource...

    1. Re:Nuk-u-lar by WindBourne · · Score: 4, Interesting

      The 30 years assume that ALL power came from the CHEAP uranium AND that we use the current inefficient approach to using it.

      First issue is that there is plenty of uranium on this planet to power the world using current tech for a long time. The reason is that even in the oceans there is uranium.

      Bear in mind, that with current approaches to reactors, we use about 2% of the power, and then we waste the rest (which is the reason why it takes 10's of thousands of years to cool down). OTH, if you use a breeder reactor, and keep the cycle going, then you use up about 98-99% of the energy (leaving a small residual that is cool within 150 years). In fact, here in America, if we could switch ALL power to IFR (integral fast reactors), AND had electric cars, AND kept everything inefficient, we would have enough uranium/plutonium in waste that we would not need to dig or buy anything for the next 100 years.

      Estimates are that there is about 10000 years of Uranium if it supplies ALL of the worlds energy needs. After that is burned there is thorium, or h2-3. Point being that nukes will last quit a long time.

      --
      I prefer the "u" in honour as it seems to be missing these days.
  5. gMatrix by sakdoctor · · Score: 3, Funny

    It's going to be some sort of "matrix" where google plugs us all in and harvests renewable energy AND our personal info.

    1. Re:gMatrix by WIAKywbfatw · · Score: 5, Insightful

      The machines in The Matrix story were so dumb.

      Skies darkened to block out the Sun so that their solar power sources would be negated? Well, duh. What was stopping them from building taller solar power collectors that were above the black stuff? Neo and Trinity penetrated the layer, didn't they?

      Alternatively, they could have used whatever power source the remaining free humans were using: Zion wasn't powered by human batteries, was it?

      Worst Plot Hole Ever.

      --

      "Accept that some days you are the pigeon, and some days you are the statue." - David Brent, Wernham Hogg
  6. Go Google by TheMeuge · · Score: 5, Insightful

    These are the kinds of initiatives that one can applaud when they're coming from a public company. Interestingly, this isn't just an idle PR stunt, or vain charity. While Google expects to invest "tens of millions" into pilot projects, they also are committing themselves to investing "hundreds of millions" into those projects that are likely to yield positive returns.

    I have spent so long lamenting the short-sightedness of American business, that it's easy to overlook the fact that at least some companies are willing to stake their immediate earnings on potentially much greater gains in the future. It's therefore very nice to see Google at the forefront of energy innovation because, let's face it, as a geek, that's exactly where I'd be pouring a fair portion of my post-billionaire funds. That and space... but alas Brin hasn't decided to finance his own airospace company YET...

    1. Re:Go Google by LWATCDR · · Score: 3, Interesting

      Two bad the spend hundreds of millions of dollars on a private 767. I am not even and extremist when it comes to things like that. Hey if they wanted a private jet a Gulfstream IV is very nice as is the Citation X. A converted airliner that could carry well over 200 people for your private toy.
      Well it makes Hummer owners look down right green.
      I guess the non billionaires need to save energy.

      --
      See my blog http://ilovecookes.blogspot.com/ for light hearted technical information.
    2. Re:Go Google by LWATCDR · · Score: 3, Insightful

      "Surely what they do with their own money is their own business. "
      In that case you can have no problem with every SUV owner on the planet. Or people that don't car pool. Or people that shop at Walmart.
      It is their own money and their own business.
      I on the other hand find it more than a little hypocritical for Larry Page to own a private 767 and talk about the importance of alternative clean energy.

      As I said I have no problem with them having a private jet. Just with a private 767. There are many very nice private jets that burn a lot less fuel but can fly just about as far and even faster.

      --
      See my blog http://ilovecookes.blogspot.com/ for light hearted technical information.
  7. Consumer tracking by Dan+East · · Score: 3, Funny

    The part I don't understand is how Google plans on tracking how consumers utilize this electricity, so they can in turn display targeted advertising through AdSense and Gmail. Surely I'm missing something.

    Dan East

    --
    Better known as 318230.
  8. Just one gigawatt? by Sockatume · · Score: 3, Insightful

    I would've thought it was easy to produce one gigawatt of renewable power cheaper than coal. Just subsidise, subsidise, subsidise, and sell on the equipment when you're done. Easy. Okay, maybe it doesn't scale too well...

    --
    No kidding!!! What do you say at this point?
  9. Disregard carbon; pay attention to all else by WindBourne · · Score: 4, Informative

    "Clean" coal is still extremly dirty, EVEN if you ignore the carbon issue. For instance, Clinton had passed a law that was going to force ALL of America's coal plants to cut way back on mercury emissoins. W. killed that almost right away when he took over. The reason is that it was estimated to jump electric prices up by 25%. Bear in mind that Clinton's clean up would not have stopped the mercury, just cut it in half. Right now, even in America, we do not do a good job of cleaning up our emissions, BECAUSE of the costs. And countries like China simply skip it all togehter, even though they have billions in the bank and are giving it to other countries to obtain their resources.

    Best thing that America can do is get off coal (and natural gas is not the way to go, but better than coal). Nukes would help.

    --
    I prefer the "u" in honour as it seems to be missing these days.
    1. Re:Disregard carbon; pay attention to all else by LSD-OBS · · Score: 3, Insightful

      Yeah, it's a pretty sad state of affairs.

      With even Patrick Moore (the founder of Greenpeace) realising that nuclear power (http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/04/14/AR2006041401209.html) is the way forward, so-called "environmentalists" need to get a clue. The nuclear waste argument is almost entirely moot thanks breeder reactors, as has already been pointed out.

      There are more deaths in the coal industry per measure of power produced, than in the nuclear power industry (including mining, catastrophes, meltdowns).

      The fact that some environmentalists actually attempt to hinder the obviously superior, and obviously more environmentally healthy option of nuclear power is a testament to their reactionary and brainless nature.

      --
      Today's weirdness is tomorrow's reason why. -- Hunter S. Thompson
  10. How about energy storage? by Calinous · · Score: 3, Insightful

    Wind might always blow at very high altitudes - but solar works only during the day. So, you either have storage, you ramp coal power plants up and down from day to night, or black out the customers

  11. why name Gates and Jobs? by Shivetya · · Score: 3, Insightful

    Name their companies. Even then, does it matter? Most of this Google press release is simple headline grabbing. Where are the dollar figures of what is going where? Are they working alongside other large companies trying to do the same or cherry picking companies they can snap up later for their investment?

    Frankly Gates doesn't have to do anything in the renewable energy market, what he is doing through his foundation is saving more lives than can be counted, not exploiting current pc trends towards "everything global warming", doing proven work that benefits people today. Hell, his foundation is more important than Microsoft in my book. Trade some "evil" here for worlds of good elsewhere.

    As for Apple, they list many iniatives. Why do they have to be energy related to qualify for points? They do a lot in the recycling arena. They make a big thing out of ensuring their equipment is recyclable and is moving to using non-dangerous/polluting means of making it.

    --
    * Winners compare their achievements to their goals, losers compare theirs to that of others.
    1. Re:why name Gates and Jobs? by Bluesman · · Score: 4, Interesting

      "Earth is a zero sum game"

      That's simply not true, and renewable resources (plants, trees, etc.) are evidence of that. We are not a zero sum game because we have, for all intents and purposes, an inexhaustible supply of energy from the sun. Think back through the chain --> sun causes plants to grow, animals eat plants, etc. We're all solar powered, ultimately.

      More efficient exploitation of that energy results in an increase in available resources. Sure, there's a limit, but we have even begun to tap into it, even with existing technology.

      That's why projects like Google's are important. Any increase in efficient production of renewable energy ensures that we continue to not be a zero sum game.

      There may come a point where no further technological innovation is possible, but it looks like when we get to that advanced state that the population will contract voluntarily. Witness the below-replacement birth rates in first world countries.

      --
      If moderation could change anything, it would be illegal.
    2. Re:why name Gates and Jobs? by Bluesman · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Resources do not have to be infinite in order for the game to not be zero sum. They simply have to increase over time.

      The total amount of energy available to the Earth increases over time. We haven't even scratched the surface of exploiting what we have, let alone optimized the exploitation of energy that comes in continuously that is currently unused.

      Hence, no zero sum game. In other words, I don't have to take energy from you in order to increase the energy available to me, there are many other ways I can increase usage or efficiency.

      In the U.S. we are not currently taking advantage of this fact, to our great discredit. It's short sighted and results in conflict.

      --
      If moderation could change anything, it would be illegal.
  12. Re:The foundation is a joke by nicklott · · Score: 4, Informative

    A little here, and a little there

    $29 Billon at the last count. It has the same budget as the entire WHO and dwarfs the amount the US government spends on aid.

    Gee, building a maglev train in the richest part of the world's richest country to carry the world's richest, fattest taxpayers, wouldn't THAT be a gift to humanity?

  13. Since nobody's mentioning HOW they're gonna do it. by Khyber · · Score: 4, Informative

    Google invested heavily in a company called NanoSolar back on 2002. Since then, Google, along with some of the top investors, have given Nanosolar millions and millions of dollars to produce printable roll-out solar cells that uses a conductive foil instead of silicon, making the cells much cheaper and easier to make. For information on Nanosolar's history, you can go here.

    --
    Still waiting on Serviscope_minor to wake up to fucking reality and realize that Jessica Price isn't going to fuck him.
  14. Good luck by Reality+Master+101 · · Score: 3, Interesting

    No disrespect to Google, and I'm glad they're making the investment, but they (and a lot of the commenters here) seem to think all it requires is waving their Magic Googlewand(beta) and we'll have energy cheaper than coal(!! Coal is pretty freaking cheap).

    If it were easy, it'd have been done already. For Google to claim that they think it can be done in "years, not decades" sounds like a good bit of hubris. If they don't have something already on the horizon, then we're stepping in the range of arrogant stupidity.

    All the credit to Google for stepping up to the plate and trying to get something done, but the way the whole thing is worded, there's this undercurrent of assumption that nobody has tried to make these things work before. All inventors think about cheap energy! It's like Google slapped their head one day and said, "Good God! Why didn't anyone think of creating alternate energy cheaper than coal before?? We're geniuses!!"

    I hope something comes of it, but I'm not holding my breath.

    --
    Sometimes it's best to just let stupid people be stupid.
  15. If you can't store it, you can't count on it by ForemastJack · · Score: 4, Informative

    I work for a major public power company and have worked on some renewables projects in departments concerned with supplying retail load (e.g. you, your aunt, Google, etc.) What so much of this debate forgets -- either deliberatley or inadvertently -- is that electricity can't be stored in any useful quantity. It's unique among commodities.

    Thus it follows that the main problem with 99% of renewable energy is that it is not dispatchable. When you're working for the power company and suddenly load spikes, you need to be able to call on a resource immediately. We have dozens of internal procedures (and a load of regulation) that dictate how much "ready to go" energy we must have available at any point.

    As a utility I can't count of a solar plant to be there as a reserve -- even in the Southwestern U.S. -- nor wind. (Geothermal is a notable exception -- it's as reliable as coal or nuke -- but is only available in specific locations.) Sure, if I could store the energy produced by a wind farm until I needed it, great, but that's not a possibility.

    I doubt that Google (or any business) will be willing to accept the operating risk of not having some form of dispatchable energy ready at hand. So they've got two choices:

    • Accept that there are just going to be times when they need to deal with the "devil" and receive power from a coal or (more likely) natural gas generating unit; and/or
    • Sell power into the grid from renewables during periods when they have it available and then use that to offset the power they must pull in from the grid when the renewables are off-line. I believe this is what New Belgium Brewing does with their "We're powered exclusively by wind!" line. No, they're not powered exclusively by wind, unless they send everyone home from work during calm weather.

    Utilities, for the most part, regard renewable energy projects as really expensive press release opportunities. Utilities are required to be reliable and, for the most part, are run by men and women who take pride in the fact that when you, Joe Customer, turn on your kid's night light, it comes on. Until someone figures out how to store energy from a wind or solar farm, the energy driving that night light is going to be baseloaded on either fossil or nuclear fuel.

  16. Another take on Peak Oil by encoderer · · Score: 4, Insightful

    The US and other major world economies already went thru this "Peak Oil" crisis, although they didn't use that specific term at the time. Nevertheless, there were no shortage of educated economists predicting absolute DOOM for civilization. Economies would crumble. Our way of life would regress. Nothing short of disaster.

    Of course, as has often been a trait of humanity, we rose to the occasion and, true to form, Peak Whale Oil was not the disaster so many thought it would be. Why? The biggest reason, of course, was the ingenuity of American business to not just lie down and die, but to innovate. They found that the black liquid bubbling up from the ground could be tapped as a brand new energy source, and they built out the huge infrastructure that was needed to make it happen.

    The same thing will happen again. Nobody is going to just lie down as our world falls apart. If for no other reason than there's a (huge) buck to be made in preventing that.

    Don't under estimate the powers of greed and self-preservation.

  17. Re:please stop with the Ocean Uranium Crap by locofungus · · Score: 4, Informative

    OK - fine. How many parts per million of uranium is there in sea water, eh? Now, take the number of parts of Uranium you will need to run a reactor. Multiple those two numbers, and you will get the volume of water you will need to boil off to get the uranium you need for ONE reactor.

    About 3 parts per billion

    That's the first I've ever heard about anybody being crazy enough to try to boil off the water to extract the uranium.

    http://jolisfukyu.tokai-sc.jaea.go.jp/fukyu/mirai-en/4_5.html

    If 2g-U/kg-adsorbent is submerged for 60 days at a time and used 6 times, the uranium cost is calculated to be 88,000 yen/kg-U, including the cost of adsorbent production, uranium collection, and uranium purification. When 6g-U/kg-adsorbent and 20 repetitions or more becomes possible, the uranium cost reduces to 15,000 yen. This price level is equivalent to that of the highest cost of the minable uranium. The lowest cost attainable now is 25,000 yen with 4g-U/kg-adsorbent used in the sea area of Okinawa, with 18 repetitionuses. In this case, the initial investment to collect the uranium from seawater is 107.7 billion yen, which is 1/3 of the construction cost of a one million-kilowatt class nuclear power plant

    So, of the order of $1bn to setup and then around 250$/kg to extract using current technology to extract enough uranium to run 6 nuclear power stations.

    Tim.

    --
    God said, "div D = rho, div B = 0, curl E = -@B/@t, curl H = J + @D/@t," and there was light.
  18. Too much fruit and nuts for you by microbox · · Score: 4, Insightful
    Keep this in mind when you contrast this with the fact that more oil is currently known to exist than any other time in human history and its widely believed huge undiscovered reserves have yet to be located.

    fyi, nobody is investing in new oil refineries, because noone in their right mind would invest $$$ when they won't get a return on capitol. The market has spoken - the market says there isn't money to be made from more refineries. That's probably because you'd have to run it for 10 years to break-even, and in 10 years time, our refining capacity may outstrip supply. Either that, or there's a massive organised world-wide conspiricy, to keep gold cookies out away from intelligent negative people.

    Long story short, there is actually zero factual information to suggest we are anywhere near peak

    Ignore the factual information. There's *lots* of oil. Jedi waves hand.

    If the oil companies are conspiring to do anything, it's that they want to sell you *more* oil and *now*. That's because it's good for their bottom line. So go to the gas station and fill up, dump in the river and fill up again! Don't worry about future scarcity! We want your money NOW! and if we make money it's good for the economy, so it _must_ be good for you too!

    There's an apt saying: "Never ascribe to malice that which can be adequately explained by stupidity". As I see it, the oil companies aren't capable of the type of conspiricy you suggest. It's too easy to shine light on their FUD. For example, the chamber of echos that exxon has created to suggest that there's *lots* of scientists who don't believe in the human impact on climate change. Some are fooled, anyone who cares to look it not.

    And on the bright side - if you're right - and the oil companies are delibertly trying *not* to sell more oil (falls down laughing), then they're doing humanity a service on so many different levels:
    • Increased price restricts demand - pushes back peak. Just like the 70s crisis screwed up Huberts original projection for world peak in the 90s
    • Increased public awareness on the oil issue (it hits the wallet), means policy changes and *research* into alternatives
    • Alternatives become more attractive - the energy economy is diversified
    • Who knows - maybe the decrease in oil sales will translate into total less greenhouse gasses this year

    Energy prices have been too low for too long. If an energy crunch happens, it will mean severe economic adjustment (and hardship) that could have been mitigated by a more frugle policy to energy usage. Such policies could help the economy slowly make the necessary structural changes. Such policies fly can only exist when the future becomes more important than satisfying immediate wants. I'm not holding my breath - too many people with a sense of entitlement - that they should have what they want, and have it now. Humanities current flirtation with greed has nothing to do with malice, and everything to do with stupidty.

    --

    Like all pain, suffering is a signal that something isn't right
  19. Like a bat out of hell. by TerranFury · · Score: 5, Interesting

    Have you heard it idle?

    Have you heard it burn rubber when the stoplight goes green? Electric motors like the Prius uses are amazing at producing off-the-line torque. Combine that with its low weight, and you find that the Prius actually out-accelerates most cars on the road.

    As an environmental move, whether hybrid drivetrains represent a net win is a little ambiguous (until we get plug-in hybrids). But for performance, they have a lot of pretty exciting advantages.

    I was on a University team which built a hybrid formula-style racecar. That thing blew the pants off of Ferraris. In fact, it was originally entered for the general Formula SAE event, which then outlawed hybrids as having an unfair advantage. (So we started another competition just for hybrid vehicles.)

    Want to see what electric motors can do? Check out the Tesla Roadster. And it only uses an AC induction motor (hence "Tesla")!!

    (The fact that it "only" uses an induction motor is important because induction motors, though cheap and durable, are not even the money-no-object "best" option: That would be a permanent magnet synchronous DC motor.)

    The downside to electric drivetrains is that they have more components, and electric motors are heavy, so their more impressive torque needs to make up for the increased weight. But the fact is that, currently, hybrids do exactly that, and, as motors get lighter, the advantages will only get more and more pronounced.

    Have you heard the quiet, confident, high-tech sound of a really powerful electric motor spooling up? It's truly a beautiful sound.