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US Urged To Keep Space Shuttles Flying Past 2010

DarkNemesis618 writes "A US Representative has proposed that NASA keep the shuttle fleet flying past its planned 2010 retirement date. The move would help NASA avoid reliance on Russian rockets during the gap between the Space Shuttle retirement and the start of the Orion program. One proposal would keep the shuttle fleet flying from 2010 to 2013 while another would keep the fleet alive until the Orion program is ready in about 2015. 2011 marks the end of the exemption that has allowed NASA to use Soyuz rockets for trips to the Space Station, and they would need an extension to keep using Russian launch vehicles. NASA's other option lies in the private sector; but thus far, the progress from that quarter does not look sufficient to meet the 2011 deadline."

41 of 219 comments (clear)

  1. Race goes on by eebra82 · · Score: 4, Insightful

    It's been 60 years since Sputnik took off. You'd think the "who's got the biggest cock" race would be over by now. The current shuttles are getting a bit old now and the most recent problems/accidents/tragedies indicated the very same thing. Maybe Russian rockets is the safest route for now?

    1. Re:Race goes on by smittyoneeach · · Score: 4, Insightful

      You'd think the "who's got the biggest cock" race would be over by now.
      "A soldier will fight long and hard for a bit of colored ribbon"--Napoleon
      I submit that Napoleon may have had a better grasp of human nature.
      Your question could be recast as: "If ODF is there and all, why OOXML?"
      --
      Get thee glass eyes, and, like a scurvy politician, seem to see things thou dost not.--King Lear
    2. Re:Race goes on by cbcanb · · Score: 2, Insightful

      The Russian rockets only have similar demonstrated reliability to the shuttle. But still, the shuttle does need to retire. The smart thing to do would be to launch capsules on the EELVs (Atlas 5 or Delta 4), but that has severe political problems (basically, a lot of people would be out of work).

      In the meantime, there are essentially a fixed number of shuttle external tanks left. Why not fly those out, whether it takes until 2010 or 2012, whatever, then move on after that?

    3. Re:Race goes on by mpe · · Score: 3, Informative

      Well, I have ancient servers running on ancient Linux variants as well, just for showing off to Windows users. But it doesn't mean they are suitable for mission critical data.

      But your "ancient servers" probably don't date from the 1970's. Even your oldest server is probably more recent than the newest shuttle.

    4. Re:Race goes on by mpe · · Score: 4, Informative

      The Russian rockets only have similar demonstrated reliability to the shuttle.

      But have a lot better safety record. Only 4 vs 14 crew fatalities, with Soyuz having been flying longer.

      The smart thing to do would be to launch capsules on the EELVs (Atlas 5 or Delta 4), but that has severe political problems (basically, a lot of people would be out of work).

      There's also the problem of the US having abandoned manned capsules over 30 years ago.

    5. Re:Race goes on by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 4, Funny

      Well, I have ancient servers running on ancient Linux variants as well, just for showing off to Windows users. Congratulations for the most pathetic reply of the day.
    6. Re:Race goes on by icebrain · · Score: 3, Informative

      But have a lot better safety record. Only 4 vs 14 crew fatalities, with Soyuz having been flying longer. That's like saying that the 747 has a worse safety record than the shuttle, because something like 2,000 people have died on it, and it's been flying longer. More have died on the shuttle because it carries more people.

      Soyuz has also had two fatal accidents in roughly the same number of flights; there have also been several incidents in the past few years of the reentry guidance failing and the capsule going "ballistic".
      --
      The meek may inherit the earth, but the strong shall take the stars.
    7. Re:Race goes on by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Insightful

      Does the guy need to write a 20 page essay on each post just because you'd rather not encumber your critical mind to fill in the blanks yourself? Nor offer yourself any evidence in agreement to or to the contrary above. Seriously. Exercise (or quite possibly, exorcise) your mind. Read slashdot as you would a good book - read between the lines and enjoy the flow of creative thought as you step through another man's ideas. Or do you require fold out pop up pictures and such?

    8. Re:Race goes on by Hal_Porter · · Score: 2, Interesting

      Why can't you learn to play nice - never watched Sesame Street? Or do they promote kicking your neighbour rather than sharing on Sesame Street these days? I'm a bit out of touch. The world isn't Sesame Street. There are no mass murderering dictators in Sesame Street. It's an artificial evironment where pure altruism works. The real world isn't like that - there's a tiny minority that regards playing nice as a sign of weakness, but unfortunately they control a few soon to be nuclear states.

      Mind you, I suppose Sesame Street morality is a pretty good approximation of how you should behave, since you're unlikely to have to deal with Kim Jong Il type psychopaths in day to day life since they get locked up. Maybe it's like Newtonian mechanics is a good approximation of the physics so long as you're not near a black hole or close to the Big Bang.

      But don't use it to guide your foreign policy.
      --
      echo -e 'global _start\n _start:\n mov eax, 2\n int 80h\n jmp _start' > a.asm; nasm a.asm -f elf; ld a.o -o a;
    9. Re:Race goes on by somersault · · Score: 2, Insightful

      Meh, it works for Switzerland. I think when it comes to defense it's fine to develop your technology, but keeping a bunch of decrepit shuttles just for the sake of not being all chummy with Russia is sad. Very very sad :( One of these kids is not like the other, lalalalalalala...

      --
      which is totally what she said
    10. Re:Race goes on by rbanffy · · Score: 3, Insightful

      "Soyuz has also had two fatal accidents in roughly the same number of flights"

      I find it unlikely Soyuz had the same number of flights as the shuttles. they have flown since about 68, from the original models to the TMA variant currently in use. I am not sure exactly how many flights were done, but I am quite sure that, being in service for about a decade longer than the shuttle makes it quite sure it had flown more missions. Also, the last failure with loss of crew (during re-entry) happened long ago, a couple design iterations back. I think it's safe to assume Soyouz-class vehicles are a very mature design and, quite probably, safer that shuttles.

      There is no dishonor in having a less safe space vehicle. The shuttle is an incredible achievement. It's only unfortunate it was too ambitious.

      BTW, since they are expendable, one could argument every mission ends in partial failure, with the loss of the vehicle ;-)

    11. Re:Race goes on by Shakrai · · Score: 3, Insightful

      Meh, it works for Switzerland

      It "works" for Switzerland because they are a landlocked mountainous country with little natural resources surrounded by friendly neighbors. Switzerland came dangerously close to being invaded by Nazi Germany during WW2 and probably would have been (sooner or later) if Barbarossa hadn't turned out so badly.

      The Swiss model isn't going to work for nations like Russia or the United States (too big, too much economic clout, too involved in World affairs). It isn't going to work for nations with unfriendly neighbors (Israel, Pakistan, India, Taiwan). It isn't going to work for nations located on natural invasion routes between stronger powers (Poland, the Low Countries, etc).

      but keeping a bunch of decrepit shuttles just for the sake of not being all chummy with Russia is sad

      It's not about "not being chummy" with Russia. It's about retaining a native space launch capability and not relying on other nations to do it for us. As a random example: Why the hell is Europe deploying Galileo? Shouldn't they just rely on GPS and the United States? Are they trying to "not be chummy" with us?

      See the point?

      --
      I want peace on earth and goodwill toward man.
      We are the United States Government! We don't do that sort of thing.
    12. Re:Race goes on by agengr · · Score: 3, Informative

      "I find it unlikely Soyuz had the same number of flights as the shuttles."

      That's because they don't. The U.S. Space Shuttle has flown more!

      At present time, the 98th Soyuz flight is docked to the International Space Station. Atlantis is sitting on the launch pad waiting to fly the 121st Shuttle mission (STS-122). Despite the fact that the first Soyuz flew 13 years before the first Shuttle, NASA has historically been the more active space agency.

      "I think it's safe to assume Soyouz-class vehicles are a very mature design and, quite probably, safer that shuttles."

      They are statistically the same. Both have lost two crews, and when you consider the number of people flown safely to the number of people lost, they both have around 98% success rate.

      The Soyuz TMA (the most recent Soyuz variant) has had some frightening close calls lately. It's interesting to note that when Endeavor had a dinged heat-shield tile, the media was circling NASA like hawks. But when the *second* Soyuz in 4 years lost guidance/navigation on re-entry and subjected the crew to a bone-crushing, high-G, hundreds of miles off-course re-entry, it got just a blurb in trade magazines.

    13. Re:Race goes on by AaxelB · · Score: 2, Funny

      I submit that a good approach is to broadcast nice and expect to receive the opposite; you're right, or you're pleasantly surprised. But if you broadcast "asshole" and expect to recieve the same, you're almost always right.
    14. Re:Race goes on by AJWM · · Score: 2, Informative

      There were a couple of STS missions planned and designated but not flown. To avoid confusion (hah) they didn't change the mission numbers when one was cancelled.

      NASA has never been able to come up with a consistent mission numbering system. (Remember the STS numbering systems up to Challenger (51L - '5' for 1985, although it actually launched in '86; '1' for launch from Kennedy vs Vandenberg (which would have been '2' except the lauach pad was decertified for Shuttle ops before ever used) and the 'L' as an alphabetic sequential designator for missions in a calendar year)). They did something similar with Apollo - the first actual manned Apollo was Apollo 7, since it was the 7th launch of the Apollo stack (earlier launches were tests), but they retro-designated as Apollo 1 the Grissom-White-Chaffee mission which burned on the pad (it's original designation was Apollo 204 after the designation for the capsule).

      Gemini 3 was the first manned Gemini, and Gemini 7 launched before Gemini 6 (because of an earlier launch abort by 6). With the Mercury series, they just designated all the capsules -7 (Friendship-7, Freedom-7, Sigma-7, etc) after the "Mercury 7" astronauts. (Technically those were the call signs, the actual mission designators also specified the booster, eg Shepard's flight (the first) was "Mercury-Redstone 3", Glenn's flight was "Mercury-Atlas 6", etc. Mercury-Redstone 4 was Grissom's flight, Mercury-Atlas 4 was an unmanned test, Mercury-Atlas 5 carried Enos the chimp)

      So, don't get hung up on NASA mission designations. The numbers only bear an approximate relation to actual mission sequence.

      --
      -- Alastair
    15. Re:Race goes on by Rei · · Score: 2, Insightful

      The Space Shuttle is not the only rocket in history to explode

      You don't say... ;)

      Seriously -- a 2% failure rate after a statistically significant number of launches is actually pretty good by orbital rocketry standards. The real problem with the shuttle is launch costs. Which was largely a design problem, which was largely a budget-cuts-while-mandating-increasing-scope problem. And rather than try and advance the state of the art, and actually put forth the funding for it, our solution is just to go backwards.

      Here's to SpaceX pulling off cheaper access to space by use of good design principles and not repeating same-old, same-old. If they keep their schedule as tight as they've been doing, Orion will be practically obsolete on its maiden flight. The Falcon-9 heavy is scheduled to launch just one year after the maiden flight of the Ares I (Orion's delivery system), and has similar stats -- except for the Falcon having by far the cheapest inflation-adjusted price per kilogram of any payload delivery system in history, let alone any man-rated payload delivery system. And the Dragon spacecraft is scheduled to launch two years before the first unmanned Orion launch.

      Perhaps I'm lettingn the cart get ahead of the horse here. Orbital spaceflight is a graveyard for small companies, and even big companies typically change their "revolutionary" prices after insisting that they won't once the craft launches successfully. But I like the Falcon series' design, and am impressed with their progress so far. So, here's to hoping.

      --
      We should start dealing in those black-market beagles.
    16. Re:Race goes on by AJWM · · Score: 2, Informative

      What are you talking about? Not only does the Shuttle have an abort mode for the entire ascent,

      It has zero abort modes for the first two minutes of flight (while the solids are burning). After that it has the "return to launch site" mode for engine failure -- which nobody really expects to work -- followed by a transatlantic abort (might work, and it least it doesn't involve flying a 180 turn and trying to find the KSC landing strip); and abort-to-orbit (for a single engine failure late in the launch.

      It has no abort modes for anything other than simple engine out, such as an SSME or OMS pod explosion.

      it has used them SUCCESSFULLY!

      It has only used abort-to-orbit, which wasn't even really an abort, more of a press to MECO.

      And no vehicle that has ever flown has an abort mode once it commits to re-entry.

      Gemini had ejection seats, as did the first couple of flights of Shuttle Columbia. Not much help if the heat shield fails, of course. It's possible that the Soviet shuttle (Buran) had a go-around capability if it missed its landing approach, certainly it did for its approach and landing test flights.

      At least Shuttle has the option of bailing-out if they have insufficient glide energy to reach the landing strip.

      Nobody really expects that to work, either, and of course the silly pole is totally useless if the vehicle is in anything other than a stable glide.

      They could have designed (at an admitted weight penalty) the whole crew capsule to be separately ejectable complete with recovery parachutes. It's likely that the Challenger crew would have survived had that been the case, the crew compartment was pretty much intact until it hit the water.

      Both Shuttle losses were due to the major design defect of mounting the damn Orbiter on the side of the ET/SRB stack.

      --
      -- Alastair
    17. Re:Race goes on by rbanffy · · Score: 2, Interesting

      While I agree with you that both have about a 2% chance of ending in tears (or flames) per flight, both failures of Soyuz craft happened very early in the vehicle history as opposed to shuttle failures that were recent and caused the grounding of the fleet while the causes were not discovered and repaired. All in all, we can consider the Soyuz security record as improving. The same cannot be said about the shuttles and that makes me say Soyuz looks safer than the shuttles.

      There are other factors involved:

      - Soyuz are much simpler machines and this makes them easier to understand and remove design flaws.

      - Soyuz spacecraft share many components with the Progress family and both systems end up helping work out the bugs from each other.

      - Soyuz are expendable. Any damage suffered in one trip ends with it.

      - Shuttles, on the other hand, are devilishly complex machines. The fact the two fatal failures happened late in the life of the vehicles and both resulted from the underestimation of poorly understood risks can be explained by the sheer complexity of the system. Far too many things can go wrong. And twice they did.

      - Both vehicles have suffered numerous failures. One can only wonder how many times the thermal insulation of the shuttles suffered nearly fatal damage that was repaired and the machine flown (successfully) again.

      - Shuttles accumulate damage during their lifetimes, much of it is poorly understood and may lead to unpredicted failure modes in the future.

      - I find it astonishing that not a single EVA, on more than 100 flights, was conducted to inspect vehicle damage (from ice, birds or whatever other unpredictable factors) after launch. This is simply bad science. The shuttle is not a commercial, mature technology - it's pretty much an experimental vehicle - and a valuable one. The priority should be on learning how it behaves, not on hauling cargo. A Saturn V could do that a lot better than a shuttle. I think a Saturn 1-B could haul cargo better than a shuttle.

      I don't think expendable craft like the Soyuz are what will turn us into an interplanetary civilization, but we need to understand reusable craft a whole lot better before we can call them safe.

    18. Re:Race goes on by icebrain · · Score: 3, Interesting

      There were a couple of STS missions planned and designated but not flown. To avoid confusion (hah) they didn't change the mission numbers when one was cancelled. They did that not just because of canceled missions, but also re-sequenced ones. The reasoning was that keeping the same mission designations (STS-XX), but flying them out of order, was less confusing than having to go through and change press kits, mission plans, payload specifications, and everything else each time there was a schedule change. Remember, shuttle launch manifests are drawn up well in advance, and crews train for at least a year or two for a specific mission.
      --
      The meek may inherit the earth, but the strong shall take the stars.
    19. Re:Race goes on by DerekLyons · · Score: 2, Interesting

      While I agree with you that both have about a 2% chance of ending in tears (or flames) per flight, both failures of Soyuz craft happened very early in the vehicle history

        Both failures? The Soyuz has a long history of significant failures - from the fatal accident on the first mission, to the computer failure on the most recent mission.
       
       

      Soyuz are much simpler machines and this makes them easier to understand and remove design flaws.
       
      Soyuz spacecraft share many components with the Progress family and both systems end up helping work out the bugs from each other.

       
      So claims the theory. But there are two problems when you compare the theory to the reality:
      1. Soyuz has an ongoing history of failures leading to near fatal accidents, significant incidents, and loss-of-mission incidents. The learning effect everyone keeps handwaving about simply does not show any evidence of occurring.
      2. Sure, Progress has many systems in common with Soyuz - but there are several critical systems that are not common. And virtually all of the systems not common have experienced failures leading to accidents. (Fatal or not.)

      Shuttles, on the other hand, are devilishly complex machines. The fact the two fatal failures happened late in the life of the vehicles and both resulted from the underestimation of poorly understood risks can be explained by the sheer complexity of the system. Far too many things can go wrong. And twice they did.

      One accident occurred early in the program, and one late. Both happened due to well understood risks - the odds of which happening were incorrectly estimated. This has absolutely nothing to do with the complexity of the system.
       
       

      Soyuz are expendable. Any damage suffered in one trip ends with it.
       
      Shuttles accumulate damage during their lifetimes, much of it is poorly understood and may lead to unpredicted failure modes in the future.

      In rational engineering, an expendable device is considered a poor device - because it is impossible to test it under realistic conditions. Each flight is the first flight. On the other hand, reusable vehicles can be overhauled and repaired in the event of minor failures. (And thus do not 'accumulate' damage.)
       
       

      One can only wonder how many times the thermal insulation of the shuttles suffered nearly fatal damage that was repaired and the machine flown (successfully) again.

      Roughly (IIRC) zero times across the life of the program.
       
       

      but we need to understand reusable craft a whole lot better before we can call them safe.

      Which is an odd thing to say - since we haven't demonstrated a clear understanding of expendables either.
  2. "Urged" by whom? by MollyB · · Score: 4, Insightful
    from TFA:

    U.S. Rep. Dave Weldon, a Republican whose Florida district includes the Kennedy Space Center, proposed extending the shuttles' lifetime to close the gap until their replacement ships, called Orion, are ready for their first manned flights in 2015. I think it is natural and logical Mr. Weldon takes this position. However, is crew safety being ignored in this calculation?
    1. Re:"Urged" by whom? by Cally · · Score: 4, Funny

      It's faith-based aerospace... as in, when you launch, you pray it doesn't go boom.

      --
      "None are more hopelessly enslaved than those who falsely believe they are free." -- Goethe
    2. Re:"Urged" by whom? by Kpau · · Score: 2, Interesting

      Short answer: yes... its obvious he has no clue whatsoever as to WHY the shuttles are being retired. The comparison with the Soyuz safety record is hilarious since their system is so matured and the kinks worked out decades ago. The Soyuz and its launch methods are dumb, stupid, and EXTREMELY reliable. Yeah, its a risk letting the Sovi--- I mean, Russians be our gateway to space for a while. Should have thought about that a few years ago? Shouldn't spend our time being such bleeping asses in the world arena to even our allies? Should choose our allies (or at least which of their factions) more carefully?

  3. Perhaps not the brightest of ideas. by reality-bytes · · Score: 4, Insightful

    TFA seems to suggest extending the STS life while also cutting costs. This sounds like a recipe for disaster.

    I know that strapping yourself to a rocket and heading for space is never safe but it would be better not to make it more dangerous. At the same time, I can see that extending the life by 6 months or so would help alleviate the current pressures on the STS for the station-construction mission (but that's not what the article discusses)

    I presume the reasoning for not wanting to rely on the Russian crew launch system is that any souring of the American-Russian relationship could make the deal problematic. How about if it were via ESA and the forthcoming Soyuz operation at French-Guiana? Would this side-step some of the possible relationship issues?

    --
    Ripping an new rectum in the fabric of spacetime.
  4. Re:Spend by reality-bytes · · Score: 3, Insightful

    The spend is justified simply because (and a certain well known physicist will back me up) if we do not learn to leave this rock we, as a race, will ultimately perish here.

    I'm not sure that the STS as it was finally created could ever be called a 'responsible' use of resources but right now, it's the only manned launcher the USA has so they've got to work with it until Orion becomes available.

    --
    Ripping an new rectum in the fabric of spacetime.
  5. Yes, but on the bright side... by tekrat · · Score: 5, Insightful

    Now they can launch that telescope thingie that was going to be left to wither because all the remaining flights have been scheduled for finishing the ISS -- and with delays, they still won't be done by 2013 anyhow.

    Hey NASA can go waste all the billions they want, it's still a drop in the bucket compared to wars which suck up a lot more money and produce even less useful results than NASA.

    It's too bad the privatized companies (Virgin Galactic, Blue Origin, SpaceX, Armadillo) can't ramp up development to meet the need. Oddly enough, *their* space race will produce the only results that will actually lower the cost per pound to orbit.

    It's too bad we're all so scared of failure these days. Consider that during the development of aircraft, a lot of people died. A lot of people died just trying to cross the Atlantic. We didn't halt aircraft development every time some lunatic in a biplane was lost in a storm. But for some reason, we're afraid to blow up the occasional person to get into space. We need to get over that. A lot of people are going to die before we're able to easily leave the planet as easily as we currently visit another continent. That's just a reality and no amount of double checking is going to change that.

    Well, for test flights anyhow, we could always use that Humanoid Robot (REEM-B) some guy spent three *whole* years developing! ;-)

    --
    If telephones are outlawed, then only outlaws will have telephones.
    1. Re:Yes, but on the bright side... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Funny

      But for some reason, we're afraid to blow up the occasional person to get into space. We need to get over that.
      You first.
    2. Re:Yes, but on the bright side... by entrigant · · Score: 5, Insightful

      But that's just it, isn't it? There are many, many people who will GLADLY take the risk and be "first". Anyone who wishes to deny us a space program has no right so say no on the grounds of danger if there are people who understand and willingly accept the danger deciding the benefits far outweight it. Me first? Sure, point me to the shuttle.

  6. Follow the money by mach1980 · · Score: 5, Insightful

    Is it that hard to imagine why senators want US dollars to be spent in their home states instead of going to Russia?

    My guess is that this is a national economy thing and has nothing to do with flight-worthiness or risk analysis.

    --
    Break the sound barrier - bring the noise.
  7. Re:Spend by Faylone · · Score: 2, Insightful

    Moreover, the money spent NASA isn't even a drop in the bucket compared to the defense budget

  8. Re:Spend by joe_cot · · Score: 2, Interesting
    1. Tourists. It's already clear that the richest will spend millions of dollars and months of training in order to go into space. Entrepreneurs are betting that slightly-less-rich tourists will spend a great deal (~100k, maybe less) to be able to go into space, which requires more safety and a smaller crew (ie 2-3 pilots and 20 dead weight tourists).
    2. Satellites. It currently costs a great deal to launch satellites into orbit, and companies have to look to another country (ie Russia) to launch them for them.
    3. NASA. NASA has a) gone into orbit, b) gone to the moon. Both are done and done, yet they still have to keep spending a great deal of their budget improving the ability to launch into orbit. From NASA's perspective, it would be much cheaper to simply buy the rockets and shuttles from the private sector, so they can focus their efforts on bigger and better prospects

    Overall, the commercial benefit to space travel is the amount of money NASA can save, companies that need satellites can save, and private space tours can make off of 60th birthday presents. The private sector will hopefully produce streamlined, easily-manufacturable rockets and shuttles that will save everyone involved a lot of money and time. Hopefully this doesn't turn out like the arms business, where private companies profit off the hardware while taxpayers foot the R&D.
  9. Re:Spend by nbucking · · Score: 2, Interesting

    That is a debate that has gone on for too long. Of course space benefits commercial. Think of the money to be made in mining ore from other planets. That is thinking in long term though. Short term it is merely for trucking millionaires into space. Mid term it could mean big money for resort owners to be the first one to rent condominiums in space or even the moon. There are a lot of people who would line up for such things. Probably not practical minded people though.

    NASA is like any other government organization. They are monitored closer than private companies. Profit can get in the way of science. Due to being always in the public eye they tend to be picked on. They have there successes and their failures. Their main purpose is extend our knowledge of a vast unknown. This sometimes includes Planet Earth. There is a lot of articles on this good and bad. But the main thing is that they are indeed a key investment for our future. I am not in a position to prioritize it above other expenditures. It certainly should be a high priority.

  10. Re:Spend by Neo+Quietus · · Score: 2, Informative

    "For comparison, NASA's FY 2008 budget of $17.3 billion represents about 0.6% of the $2.9 trillion United States federal budget." http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NASA_Budget

    0.6% of the federal budget is not a lot of resources to be devoting to the promise of space travel, especially considering the possible rewards.

    As for commercial benefits, there are some (and there are other, non-commercial benefits), but why does a government agency have to do things that have commercial benefits? Won't, you know, companies do that? Government agencies can do research that my have no other benefit than to simply increase our understanding of the universe, or do research that isn't profitable but still useful.

  11. LC-39C by reality-bytes · · Score: 4, Informative

    The obvious solution to this problem would be to construct pad LC-39C as an Ares platform.

    LC-39C was originally projected as a third Saturn V pad in a line north of LC-39B but was never constructed although a stub of it's intended crawler-way points towards the north from the dog-leg in the LC-39B crawler-way. There were actually a total of three unbuilt platforms to the north as part of an 'Advanced Saturn' program but the other two look like they'd need significant land reclamation.

    The existing crawler-transporters should be sufficient to handle both the STS and Ares I as NASA is building brand-new MLPs for the Ares system.

    Compared to the total cost of the Ares/Orion system, a new LC-39 pad would like like a bargain.

    --
    Ripping an new rectum in the fabric of spacetime.
    1. Re:LC-39C by O2H2 · · Score: 2, Insightful
      The obvious and low cost solution is to RAZE LC-39 and let it return to the swamp from which it came. The same goes for the VAB. You can launch all the crew you can afford from TWO brand new launch pads on the east coast and a matching set on the west coast. They are the Atlas and Delta IV pads and they are capable of supporting launch rates five times greater than present utilization. The cost to add crew facilities is trivial compared the cost of LC 39/VAB/crawler maintenance.

      Stop thinking you need to invent stuff that has already been invented by seasoned professionals in the commercial launch industry. Trust me we have solutions for whatever troubles your heart about spaceflight. We are systematically blocked by pervasive not-invented-here syndrome and an near total lack of hands-on know-how at NASA. We planned out an entire cost effective architecture that would have put people on the moon in 2012 for about 20% of NASA's projected costs. This was to be commenced in 2007. The offer still stands. Have you heard of it? Probably not- it has been systematically blocked from publication by NASA administrators and their henchmen for years now.

      But you can keep on with ARES- it will be history within 15 years if it flies at all- remembered as a pimple on the leprous butt that was Shuttle. Sensible designs will outlast it- as they did Saturn.

  12. Re:Spend by mha · · Score: 4, Interesting

    This questions is invalid.

    It comes down to asking "what is the commercial benefit of live"?

    This conversation happened and says it all:
    Q: Why did you climb that mountain?
    A: Because it is there.

    What do you live for? What is "the economy" for? No economist would ask such a question. Because the ENDS of the economy are not subject of that science, only how to best achieve it. What those ends are, what people values in life, is NOT a subject of economic debate - at least not as real economists are concerned (sure there are those who want to impose their values on you but that is their personal issue and not subject of the science called "economics").

    It comes down to this: If there are enough people with enough power to get their will then whatever it is they want it gets done. Period. That's how everything works. Democracy too. Only distribution of power is different in different societies.

    So, if you don't want that anyone goes to space, convince them or become powerful enough to prevent it. But don't ask for the purpose - there is none. Each person has to decide for themselves what they want from/in life. That is true whether you're an atheist or a devoted catholic (I'm an atheist who ended up on two catholic pilgrimages :-) thus far). For atheists that's clear, but also religion teaches that what you do in life is YOUR choice, god doesn't tell you. (It does say you get judged afterwards but more about HOW and not WHAT you did). So if I decide my purpose is to get to Mars then that's it. If I kill people to get what I want I leave human values behind. If I can convince enough people (with enough resources) to help me (or if they want it themselves anyway) there is no use asking the question "why". Because I want it.

    Imagine an intelligence waaaaay beyond human capabilities. Of what use is it? It's a great computer, not more! Without feelings, desires, there is NOTHING to drive it towards some end. There is no logical reason to do ANYTHING. You can ALWAYS ask "why", endlessly! At some point you have to decide you don't give a d..., or you never have a reason to act, ever. That's also why very intelligent people, with IQs far above average, are NOT the most successful ones in life. Sure, *some* intelligence sure helps, but at some point it gets much more important to feel the inner DRIVE to live and so things, and NOT ask questions "why"! That's (the main reason) why a dyslexic Richard Branson is a multi-Billionaire and 180+ IQ writer Stanislaw Lem (one of my favorites) only wrote lots of very thoughtful and philosophic books, with an increasing air of skepticism and melancholy.

    So maybe you are too intelligent if you keep asking "why" ;-)

  13. Politics as usual by El+Yanqui · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Politics too often trumps science and common sense. Here's a congressman who wants a lucrative deal in his district, that's the story.

    I like how the congressman describes it as an "arbitrary" date for decomissioning and that the risks won't increase overnight. I say send a congressman up on every mission after the shuttle's sell by date.

    They probably can be used effectively for many years, but that doesn't mean that they should. Every bit of extra maintenance and upkeep performed on an old system, every bit of extra testing to make sure parts still function and every investigation into a failure will slow the space program and new developments. This is pork politics no matter how it's dressed up.

    --
    Well, thanks to the Internet, I'm now bored with sex.
  14. Re:Spend by Colin+Smith · · Score: 2, Insightful

    This questions is invalid.

    [snip]

    So maybe you are too intelligent if you keep asking "why" ;-) No, you've simply misinterpreted the question. The question is "Why are YOU spending MY money to achieve YOUR ends."

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    Deleted
  15. This one is about jobs, not security. by WindBourne · · Score: 2, Informative

    If he was serious, then he would say that the shuttle should continue flying until a replacement is working and in place. That could be oriion, but it is far more likely to be COTs. The reason why he said until Orion is that it is expected to need close to the same amount of ppl as the shuttle (4K+ at Kennedy). OTH, Falcon will have no more than 100 ppl at kennedy, and 50 is likely closer around 2010. In addition, virgin is expected to come on-line around 2011 with their LEO space system, with less than 50. And finally, we have the 2'nd COTs entry. It will most likely be one that is close. I am guessing that it will spacedev (using ULA's launcher, they have an engine for the back, just need the craft, which they are looking to use the H-20 design). Spacedev would possibly be ready by 2010.

    But it would make sense to continue flying the shuttle until one of the alternative systems is in place. As soon, as it is in place, the NASA shuttle ppl should be wound down. Quickly. But this pub is simply up to the same tricks as those from 200X; run up a moster deficit.

    --
    I prefer the "u" in honour as it seems to be missing these days.
  16. Re:Spend by Shooter6947 · · Score: 3, Informative

    [the STS is] the only manned launcher the USA has so they've got to work with it until Orion becomes available.

    This misses the point. The problem is that NASA told congress that they could indeed keep flying the shuttle while developing Orion, for an extra $1B per year. Congress said, "great. keep flying the shuttle, develop Orion, and do it without the $1B." NASA is not getting enough money to do both. The point of retiring the shuttle is to free up that ~$6B/year and spend it on the next-generation launch system, Orion, instead. We can't do both without a significant increase in budget, which is just not going to happen.

    As for not having American access to the Station in the interim, we'll just have to deal with paying the Russians. Unless the NASA COTS system works out. Elon Musk over at SpaceX may very well have his Dragon capsule and Falcon 9 launch vehicle ready about that time to take over from the Shuttle.

  17. Private industry by FleaPlus · · Score: 2, Informative

    NASA's other option lies in the private sector; but thus far, the progress from that quarter does not look sufficient to meet the 2011 deadline.

    Although it says this in the summary, the linked article doesn't seem to actually have anything to support this claim. In fact, it's looking like according to their current schedule the private SpaceX Dragon crew/cargo capsule will be flying demonstration flights 2008-2010. With an additional purchase commitment from NASA, they could probably finish and be able to transport cargo and crew to the ISS even sooner.

    http://www.spacex.com/dragon.php