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IBM's Five Predictions for the Future
StonyandCher writes "IBM has released its second annual set of 'Next Five in Five' predictions. The company's crystal ball also revealed that the long-simmering trend toward "smart energy" devices will proliferate wildly. "Dishwashers, air conditioners, house lights, and more will be connected directly to a 'smart' electric grid, making it possible to turn them on and off using your cell phone or any Web browser," a company statement asserts."
I have no doubt that some of these things will come to pass, but within 5 years? Nope, sorry.
1. We'll be able to track produce, and every detail of it of where it's been, etc. - This would require a database and some ID tag (likely RFID) or an Read/Write tag and no database. Currently these are too expensive to have seen widespread use in larger goods, and despite predictions that they're just around the corner, they've been unable to lower the price past a certain point. RFID will happen, but it won't happen this fast.
2. Smart Networks - This requires a significant investment in infrastructure, and it would seem, smart cars. This is something that may start within 5 years, but only cars made past a certain date will actually be 'smart', and until a certain percentage is 'smart' there's not much use for the system (possibly reducing the motivation for investment in the non-car infrastructure, though GPS/Onstar type services may provide enough incentive. Still it won't be here in 5 years.
3. Cell phones - Stupid example. I don't need to know what clothing will look like on me in 3d, and this seems like an application that would be horrible on cell phones, even with advances in computer technology. It MIGHT happen in Asian countries, as they tend to have more advanced cell phones and seem to enjoy odd tech things that don't catch on well in the US (vending machines, etc)
4. Smart Devices are over-rated. Until you can easily access your computer from your cell phone, this won't be down the road 5 years. Yes I'm sure you can do it, but it's not common, certainly not on non-smart phones.
5. Doctors - It'll happen, medicine will advance, but i don't think we'll see any amazing changes. Admittedly I know little about this field, but I haven't heard anything huge inventions lately that will revolutionize the field.
I am not an expert. If I am misled in something, please correct me.
"smart energy" devices? I prefer "dumb" energy devices where they are really off instead of the standby crap they have now. Standby is mostly broken now anyways, the whole point of standby on TVs was that you could use your remote and open the TV and start channel surfing immediately. Now because everything is more complex I have to wait for my TV to "boot" up for a few seconds first. The only difference between this and having the TV starting from a "cold" start is that I waste energy when it's off.
for some functions, central heating being the main one. Setting off home early? Log in and get the place warmed up. Getting back late? Log in to postpone the warm up cycle. Go one step further and tie the location of your gps-enabled car / mobile phone / wristwatch etc to CH behaviour so as to have it off or frost proof setting when you're a long way away, to have it full on when you're in the house or on an established route such as commuting back from the office and drop to background heat at other times. Each person in the house would need the phone / wristwatch / implant though! And not much point in the summer. But it'd be useful for anyone who comes and goes at irregular times, who (therefore) can't program a timer to keep heating optimally efficient.
Why would I want to control my lights remotely? Except maybe for a timer for security reasons when I'm away, otherwise I really don't need the lights on when I'm not there and if I'm there I can handle the light switch. If I can't remember to turn them off when I leave I'm not going to remember to find a wi-fi connection, logon to a website...
It is by the juice of the coffee bean that thoughts acquire speed, the teeth acquire stains. The stains become a warning
Agreed.
Designing a good dishwasher is pretty damn simple, and cellphones are definitely not involved.
1. It should have a button marked "WASH" - that causes the dishes to get washed. That's the whole point of the fucking machine.
2. For extra credit, it can have a button marked "WASH CHEAPLY IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS" - I can understand that, and might press it before going to work some days.
3. It should have a big hole in the top where I can pour several pounds of dishwashing detergent. When it starts running low, it could even have a light that says "PLEASE ADD MORE DETERGENT."
I'll wait for the iDishwaher.
We're getting so sheltered and pussywhipped that we won't be able to function as an independent species within a few decades.
Humans haven't "function[ed] as an independent species" since cavemen first chipped tools out of flint. Technology is what makes us human beings rather than just rather weak, slow, hairless apes.
The correlation between ignorance of statistics and using "correlation is not causation" as an argument is close to 1.
While often cited, it doesn't seem that Watson made that prediction. Apparently, the earliest known citation is a 1986 Usenet post. There aren't any speeches or documents of Watson's that contain this prediction. See the wikipedia article on Watson for more information. I have a biography of Watson, 'The Maverick and His Machine: Thomas Watson, Sr. and the Making of IBM', that also says there's no evidence he ever made that prediction.