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IBM's Five Predictions for the Future
StonyandCher writes "IBM has released its second annual set of 'Next Five in Five' predictions. The company's crystal ball also revealed that the long-simmering trend toward "smart energy" devices will proliferate wildly. "Dishwashers, air conditioners, house lights, and more will be connected directly to a 'smart' electric grid, making it possible to turn them on and off using your cell phone or any Web browser," a company statement asserts."
These new web controllable appliances will be vulnerable to exploits, resulting in someone's house burning down a house after a hacker turns on their stove.
Who's going to provide this functionality, for that matter? Will we end up with a dozen mutually incompatible systems, and what happens when we want to upgrade what's already been half installed?
The company said that during the next five years, a "wave of connectivity" between vehicles and roadways will help keep traffic flowing smoothly
Yeah the theoretical technology might exist, but major improvements to the national infrastructure will take decades to implement.
"Dishwashers, air conditioners, house lights, and more will be connected directly to a 'smart' electric grid,
Again this require a major improvement to parts of the infrastructure. On top of that, my parents already own all the appliances they want, they will not likely get many new ones anytime in the next five years. Maybe an HDTV.
For example, phones will enable users to snap a photo of an article of clothing, pull in results from the Web about the brand and where to buy it, and then render the garment on top of a 3-D image of the user, IBM said.
Many stores I have been in do not let you photograph the merchandise, if you can suddenly comparison shop the goods in any given store I can only see that policy getting stronger.
This article sounds more like "The World of Tomorrow" than something I would expect out of a respected technology company.
We are all just people.
..spare me this drivel.
somebody please give me an example of why I should ever want to control my dishwasher from my phone or my web browser.
the only intelligence I want in my gadgets it on the lines of smart machines that can detect the load and vary the power consumption and resource usage accordingly. possibly the only interaction I would want is a little minimalist chime to alert me that the cycle or current operation has finished and some human interaction is needed.
*everything* else should work behind the scenes to my benefit to save power or alert me when the washing powder is running low.
interaction by web browser? what utter rot. I would say "whatever next, a fridge with a built in web browser?" but I remember talk of such stuff a few years ago...
I agree entirely. If I have to tell my appliances how to behave, then it is /I/ who am smart, not the appliance.
Smart would be if I set a monthly power budget and all my appliances figure out together how to best achieve their jobs within that budget.
A work that expires before its copyright never enters the public domain and thus enjoys eternal copyright protection.
I don't think there will be that much interest in smart appliances like they describe. I think this is a technological path to consider, but it will be over ruled by the fact that we, as a planet, are running out of per capita energy.
We may be able to create a lot of energy, but the per capita demand worldwide is growing such that Americans (who consume more energy per capita) will experience a severe energy shortage and as such, the focus will not be on more appliances that are smart and therefore have a passive load on the household grid, but focus on appliances that actually stop using all electricity when you turn them off. Many don't these days because of the hot start design features.
For the rest of this decade the US will experience energy shortages in terms of higher gasoline prices, higher heating gas prices, and higher electricity prices (and summer shortages). This will force us to reconsider a lot of the appliances that we already have and re-prioritize what we want in future appliances.
I consider the addition of a web server in your dishwasher or the ability turn it off and on via a cell phone to be an example of dumb technology. It demonstrates a failure to consider the use cases for a device like a dishwasher. The user is going to be right next to the device, loading or unloading the actual dishes it's built to wash. You don't need remote informational displays, you don't need remote control.
"Dishwashers, air conditioners, house lights, and more will be connected directly to a 'smart' electric grid, making it possible to turn them on and off using your cell phone or any Web browser,"
If I am out...why in the hell do I want to take time to manage all my household appliances? I am 'out' for a reason. Presumably to have fun. Other than that, I am at home or work.
Heat and A/C? Nope, sorry. Either maintain a constant temp, or follow the damn program I already gave you.
Dishwasher? Oh please. If it's full enough, I'll start it now. Empty it whenever. Or maybe I'll start it just before I go to bed.
House lights? Again...follow the (individual) timers, or just stay off. Simple, cheap, pretty foolproof.
What possibly would I need to change settings on if I am 'out'. About the only thing I can think of that I might want to alter is the TiVo settings. Which I can do already. And that is (for me) a non issue. In two(three?) years, I haven't found a need to do it once.
Will producers make such information available? It shouldn't take a genius to answer this question.
Property is theft.
he company said that during the next five years, a "wave of connectivity" between vehicles and roadways will help keep traffic flowing smoothly, drive down pollution and get you to your destination easier, "without the stress."
This will be accomplished through "intelligent" traffic systems that automatically adjust light patterns and shift traffic to alternative routes, as well as cars that exhibit "reflexes" thanks to communication with other vehicles and roadside sensors, according to IBM.
Utter and catastrophic bullshit. Those features MIGHT be available in 5 years, but the stupid bint up the street who just bought tha gas guzzling Caddilac SUV is NOT going to be getting one in five years. She will likely still be driving the gas guzzling POS Caddy. And I will DEFINITELY still be driving my Prius. And my brother is going tobe buying a new car next year, and it will likely be a used Ford. He ALWAYS buys used Fords.
Essentially, for that technology to have ANY penetration in 5 years, it needs to have been made available last year or the year before. It takes an average of 10 years to replace 75% of the car fleet. This does NOT bode well given the petroleum situation....
RS
Shoes for Industry. Shoes for the Dead.
Hello, human, your only advantage over other animals is technology, and it's always been that way.
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Smart homes with remotely controlled appliances have featured in predictions for about 20 years now. Always about 5 years out.
I predict they will remain in the prediction lists for the next 20 years.
Stop worrying about the risks of nuclear power and start worrying about the risks of not using nuclear power.
Right now, the power companies predict usage, with little control, with smart energy, they can tune usage much more efficiently.
Storm