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Mars Asteroid Impact More Likely Than Before
sheldie writes "The probability of asteroid 2007 WD5 impacting Mars has been revised following further observations. The chance of impact has increased from 1.3% to 3.9%" This is a follow-up to earlier coverage of this asteroid from last week.
See that first picture where the arc of the asteroid makes a flyby right into our orbit, while just passing Mars?
How come the experts cannot mathematically say for certain whether this rock will hit Mars? What's the wildcard in this calculation that injects uncertainty?
To be fair, a "1 in 24" is much better odds than "1 in 76." So yes, It is three times more likely and yes, that is a pretty big deal.
A fresh impact crater would reveal all sorts of valuable, once-in-a-lifetime data about the planet that is likely to be the first humans will tred on since Earth. Don't underestimate the science.
=Smidge=
Is there any information yet on whether Spirit and Opportunity might see anything if there actually is impact - such as maybe seeing the dust rise or even capturing a glimpse of the asteroid in the Martian atmosphere?
But no FRESH ones.
That's not really true. The orbital cameras around Mars have detected new craters from impacts that occurred in just the last few years. Here's just one example.
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Is there any sensible reason to care about moderations? It's something that has escaped me,
but I'm relatively new here so maybe someone could elaborate.
It would cause alot of dust and dirt to become airborne, allowing spectral analysis to determine the presence of substances. The argument about water existing on the planet would likely be answered, and we could get a good look on what resources might be available on mars if humans were ever able to establish a base camp.
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Not sure if it is the same crater but I did see a picture of a new Mars crater which was just a smudge in the sand. The impactor had fallen apart before impact and just spread some darker dust around. I think it would be very interesting to see how much of this object actually hits the ground, and how much mass gets thrown into the atmosphere.
Maybe I am counting on this too much. 4% is not that high. Cross fingers. Touch chipboard.
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