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8 Can't Miss Predictions... for 1998

alphadogg-nw writes "Tired of being wrong too often, a Network World pundit applies 20-20 hindsight to this list of prognostications for 1998, which if he's right will turn out to be quite a year. Among the forecasts: The U.S. Department of Justice will go medieval on Microsoft, Compaq will buy what's left of DEC, AOL likewise Netscape, Apple will introduce something said to look like an Easter egg ... and then there's the deafening buzz about this new search engine called Google."

35 of 125 comments (clear)

  1. Bad headline by MSTCrow5429 · · Score: 5, Informative
    The headline is misleading. These aren't predictions for 1998, they're written by a guy in 2008 as if they were written in 1998. That's what the "hindsight" part means.

    My prediction for 2008: Major worldwide recession, due to the massive inflationary bubble bursting, an inability of the central banks to continue using inflation to create a false sense of prosperity, and stagflation.

    --
    Slashdot: Playing Favorites Since 1997
    1. Re:Bad headline by $RANDOMLUSER · · Score: 3, Insightful

      If it occurs after the fact, it's not a prediction.

      --
      No folly is more costly than the folly of intolerant idealism. - Winston Churchill
    2. Re:Bad headline by sm62704 · · Score: 5, Funny
      My predictions for 2008, all will happen (balls of crystal, I tell ya)
      • the earth will not be hit by an extinction-causing assteroid
      • Someone will invent something. The invention may actually be useful
      • Somebody will launch something or someone into outer space.
      • Someone will post "FIRST POST! with the comment "frosty piss" and be modded "offtopic"
      • Someone will say something about the USSR, Natalie Portmen, a Beowolf cluster, or CowboyNeal and be modded "+5 funny"
      • I will continue to write slashdot journals about prostitutes
      • I will get at least one haircut this year. Maybe this afternoon.
      • CmdrTaco won't command her "taco"
      • Google [whatever] will remain in beta
      • Microsoft will keep pissing everyone off
      • 2008 will not see Linux overtake Windows
      • I'll be turned down and stood up
      • CowboyNeal won't get laid


      -mcgrew
      --
      mcgrew's razor: Never attribute to stupidity that which can be explained by greedy self-interest
    3. Re:Bad headline by MSTCrow5429 · · Score: 2, Insightful

      Yeah, but sometimes, if you have even a dim understanding of economics and finance, and you follow current events, it doesn't take a Cassandra to sound the alarms. I've acquired something more than a merely dim understanding of economics and finance, mind you. As for imminent doom, such as Earth being blasted by a gamma ray burst (unless we aren't being told something), or global warming, yeah, that's the idiots talking.

      --
      Slashdot: Playing Favorites Since 1997
    4. Re:Bad headline by red_dragon · · Score: 4, Funny

      In Soviet Russia, Natalie Portman uses a Beowulf cluster built by CowboyNeal to submit a first post with the comment "frosty piss".

      There you go, you can scratch one off of your list. You're welcome.

      --
      In Soviet Russia, Jesus asks: "What Would You Do?"
  2. Altavista by hey! · · Score: 4, Interesting

    Y'know, I liked Altavista a great deal. It was a rare case of a great product getting its block knocked off by an even better one. Still, for some time I found Altavista's more bells-and-whistley approach useful for triangulatin Google results, at least until Google engineers seemingly perfected their MROIPP (Mind Reading Over Internet Protocols Protocol) technology.

    --
    Post may contain irony: discontinue use if experiencing mood swings, nausea or elevated blood pressure.
    1. Re:Altavista by scsirob · · Score: 2, Funny

      Just wondering if 'Alta' and 'Vista' were actually meant to be two words, as in "Old Vista". Looks like they are doing equally well as the "New Vista". sort-of-ok start, followed by a quick demise once a real alternative shows up...

      --
      To Terminate, or not to Terminate, that's the question - SCSIROB
    2. Re:Altavista by Ours · · Score: 3, Informative

      It's Spanish:
      Alta = something high
      Vista = view
      Translated to "high-view" and from my understanding it's some place in California.

      --
      "You superiour intellect is no match for our puny weapons" - The Simpsons
    3. Re:Altavista by Vellmont · · Score: 3, Interesting


      Y'know, I liked Altavista a great deal. It was a rare case of a great product getting its block knocked off by an even better one.

      I liked Altavista too, and had a similar reaction about it being better than Google until about 2000.

      The only quibble I have is that AltaVista died because they started thinking they were a portal like Yahoo, and not a search engine. They didn't figure out targeted ads, turned their site into a Yahoo clone, and did a "me too!" with email. If they'd done what Google did, focus on the search technology, give away better email than Yahoo was giving away at the time, and stop trying to beat Yahoo at being Yahoo, I think Google would still mean "a really big number".

      --
      AccountKiller
    4. Re:Altavista by SharpFang · · Score: 3, Informative

      Unfortunately, no, by the end, not.

      I stayed with Altavista quite long. I tried Google once, soon after it emerged, didn't feel impressed and went back to Altavista. And for the time, It Was Good.

      I kept using it for another 2 or 3 years and saw it go down the drain.

      First, they fell victim to spammers. People figured out how to position their sites with it, and any somewhat common keyword yielded many pages of commercial junk before you could get to content, and first 10 or so positions for mostly -any- keyword were occupied by spam links.

      Then they started adding ads. Sponsored links replacing first search results, some obnoxious popups, really bad junk. Remember these were times before Adblock. It was utter junk.

      Then it stopped keeping up with progress. Sites took months to get indexed, and 404s even more to get removed. The results were a total junk.

      I gave Google another chance and was hugely impressed. It was still before people figured out most of pagerank tricks and Google was almost totally spam-free. I had my results within first 3-4 links, not after 3-4 pages!

      Red Queen was right: "It takes all the running you can do, to keep in the same place."

      --
      45 5F E1 04 22 CA 29 C4 93 3F 95 05 2B 79 2A B2
  3. Wow! That was easy. by morgan_greywolf · · Score: 5, Funny

    My predictions for 1988:

    10. MS-DOS 4.0 will ship, finally, by mid-year. It will be so buggy and crash so much that Microsoft will be forced to release an update, MS-DOS 4.01, by year's end.
    9. Liquid crystal will be discovered by Frederick Reintzer.
    8. Someone will introduce a simple network management protocol, probably called SNMP. Nobody will care.
    7. An alternative bus to IBM's Micro Channel Architecture will be introduced. Expect it to be called something like EISA -- Extended Industry Standard Architecture.
    6. An Internet Relay Chat system called IRC will be developed.
    5. A company called Creative Labs will introduce a sound card called the SoundBlaster, which will establish defacto standards for years to come.
    4. People obsessed with clocks will introduce the Network Time Protocol, which will allow computers to sync their clocks over the Internet.
    3. The first T-1 backbone will be added to ARPANET.
    2. Motorola will release a new processor, the 88000. No one will care.
    1. Apple will sue Microsoft over the trash can icon.

  4. Wow! by Otter · · Score: 4, Funny
    In a first-of-its-kind case, a California jury will convict a U.C.-Irvine dropout, Richard Machado, of sending threatening and hateful e-mail to students of Asian dissent.

    Between the timeliness of this story, his spelling, and his belief that Bill Gates is facing criminal charges, Paul McNamara sounds like he'd fit in well here as an editor.

    1. Re:Wow! by ByOhTek · · Score: 2, Insightful

      I like how the iMac revolutionized personal computing the most funny.

      It made it come in a smaller package, but hardly revolutionized given it's comparatively small takeup to other computer styles, and the fact that it didn't really change how a computer was used.

      --
      Self proclaimed typo king, and inventor of the bear destroying coffee table (patent not pending).
    2. Re:Wow! by MightyYar · · Score: 3, Insightful

      About the only things you can give credit to the iMac for are re-animating Apple and popularizing USB.

      --
      W..w..W - Willy Waterloo washes Warren Wiggins who is washing Waldo Woo.
    3. Re:Wow! by egomaniac · · Score: 3, Informative

      I thought USB was popular prior to the iMac. If I remember correctly, it was Firewire that they helped bring to the forefront.

      Nope, it was USB. Everybody on the Windows side of things was still using the legacy ports, it was hard to find USB peripherals and they were buggy. The iMac's popularity forced manufacturers to add decent USB support to their devices. Printers went parallel + USB, mice switched over to USB w/ PS/2 adapters, etc. Plus everything was available in your choice of five translucent colors.

      And the damned legacy adapters still won't die over on the PC side of things. Most KVM switches, for example, still only support PS/2 connectors, and I had to buy a USB-to-DB9 connector to be able to program my universal remote control. Love Apple or hate 'em, you've got to admit that they're good at getting people to drop the old broken standards and move forward. We need to put them in charge of getting the US over to metric.

      --
      ZFS: because love is never having to say fsck
    4. Re:Wow! by mini+me · · Score: 2

      The plastic on the iMac was pretty revolutionary. Even today, you still see several products that were inspired by the original iMac design.

  5. Re:Digg? by AstrumPreliator · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Slashdot has a much more focused story selection, the front page isn't rife with spelling errors, grammatical errors, and poor headlines, and finally the moderated comments on Slashdot are usually pretty good and I enjoy reading them. If I want to see some funny picture from 2001 complete with a terrible headline and mind numbingly stupid comments I'll go to digg. I'm not trying to bash digg too hard since I do visit it about as frequently as slashdot, but slashdot is definitely easier to read and the comments are really what makes slashdot special to me.

  6. oooooh by LiquidCoooled · · Score: 3, Funny

    6. Prediction: Congress to pass Digital Millennium Copyright Act.

    The skinny: Congress will approve the DMCA by a unanimous vote and President Clinton will sign it into law, because, well, everyone favors copyright protection.

    Long-term outlook: The only possible trouble with this one that I can foresee would be if someone were to launch a Web site that allowed anyone and everyone to post video clips of whatever they pleased. That might get sticky.


    I thought pornotube was stickier than youtube, but I suppose both are up to their necks.

    --
    liqbase :: faster than paper
  7. Mod parent up by elrous0 · · Score: 4, Funny

    And tell Taco to RTFA too.

    --
    SJW: Someone who has run out of real oppression, and has to fake it.
    1. Re:Mod parent up by Pharmboy · · Score: 4, Insightful

      No reason to RTFA, its lame, and it appears it is a very slow news day and they needed something on the front page for this hour. I hate being so negative, but if you do REFA, you will see that this is really weak.

      --
      Tequila: It's not just for breakfast anymore!
    2. Re:Mod parent up by Forge · · Score: 2, Informative

      Actually what's wrong with taco's post is the icon.

      This article should have had the "foot". Except that it was not that funny :(

      PS: In a side note, this journalist (Paul McNamara) is probably just training to become a stock market annalist. A profession dominated by guys who make a living by "Predicting the past" with moderate accuracy.

      --
      --= Isn't it surprising how badly I spell ?
  8. Re:Wow! That was easy. by root_42 · · Score: 3, Informative

    > My predictions for 1988: ...
    > 9. Liquid crystal will be discovered by Frederick Reintzer.

    According to Wikipedia [1] that happened in 1888.

    [1] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liquid_crystals#History

    --
    [--- PGP key and more on http://www.root42.de ---]
  9. Predicting the past? by Per+Abrahamsen · · Score: 5, Insightful

    Eh, I guess I miss something, what is the point of predicting the past? Poorly?

    1. Re:Predicting the past? by katre · · Score: 2, Insightful

      We have this thing called humor. This article may be a sub-par example of humor, but that would seem to be its point.

  10. Just a second there by Bandman · · Score: 2, Informative
  11. A question - by banda · · Score: 4, Funny

    What exactly are "students of Asian dissent"?

    Would that include anyone who took a 20th century history class? Why be mad at them?

    1. Re:A question - by Grandiloquence · · Score: 3, Funny

      "Students of Asian dissent" would include anyone who studies people who claim not to be Asian, obviously.

  12. Re:Digg? by cHiphead · · Score: 4, Informative

    I "switched" to digg for about 2 months before it got excessively annoying. Ever since the interface change I've been 99% slashdot for comments, no more wasting my time on digg comments system, their useless trolls are nowhere near as entertaining as /.'s.

    Cheers.

    --

    This is my sig. There are many like it, but this one is mine.
  13. Re:Digg? by sm62704 · · Score: 4, Funny

    the front page isn't rife with spelling errors, grammatical errors, and poor headlines

    Um WHAT? You're talking about slashdot? THIS slashdot?

    -mcgrew

    --
    mcgrew's razor: Never attribute to stupidity that which can be explained by greedy self-interest
  14. Re:Digg? by dbolger · · Score: 5, Funny

    I believe he was trying to keep his post on-topic.

    Clearly he is referring to the Slashdot of 1998 ;)

  15. Re:Why modded Troll? by ericspinder · · Score: 2, Interesting

    Should Slashdot just redirect to digg and get it over with? How is this news? Why was this one modded 'troll'?

    Troll - "is someone who posts controversial messages in an on-line community such as an on-line discussion forum with the intention of baiting other users into an emotional response." I think it fits, and would meta moderate it as such, if given the opportunity (and taking it).

    Seriously, Taco, you're letting the quality of /. slip below Digg.

    While I agree with you that /. editors could do a better job with some of the summaries and occasionally a particularly poor submission creeps in (slownewsday is often an appropriate tag for such stories), but it's hardy the mess that I've seen on Digg.

    --
    The grass is only greener, if you don't take care of your own lawn.
  16. Re:Predictions for 2008 by Toonol · · Score: 2, Funny

    Amazingly enough, 2008 will be the year in which everything collapses. All economic, social, and political issues will come to their inevitably horrible conclusions.

    No, really, it will be this year. All the portents are there. Similar predictions for all previous years were due to misinterpreting the signs.

    Of course, if my warning is heeded, we may stave off the collapse for another year. That just reinforces how correct my predictions were.

  17. Re:Predictions for 2008 by wertarbyte · · Score: 3, Informative

    Add to that: $7/gallon gasoline in the USA

    Oh boy, stop crying: 7 (U.S. dollars / US gallon) = 1.2587328 Euros / liter

    We are way past that in europe (approaching 1.5 EUR here in germany) for some time now. And guess what? Civilisation is not collapsing.

    --
    Life is just nature's way of keeping meat fresh.
  18. Re:Predictions for 2008 by Abreu · · Score: 4, Insightful

    But please remember that most europeans have access to decent public transportation... Poor gringos have to drive everywhere...

    --
    No sig for the moment.
  19. Re:Wow! That was easy. by Your+Pal+Dave · · Score: 2, Interesting

    That sounds about right.
    Actually, LEDs and those super-cool bluish neon tube thingies. Not nixies, the little ones. What the hell were they called? Probably early vacuum fluorescent displays (VFD). I built a digital clock kit back in the '70s using them, they came as individual 7 segment displays packaged in what looked like small vacuum tubes with long solder leads.