US Satellites Dodging Chinese Missile Debris

GSGKT writes "Today's Washington Times runs a story about the increasing problem with space junk orbiting the earth. Debris from the anti-satellite missile test by the Chinese military last year threatens the integrity of more than 800 operating satellites, half of them belonging to the US. Two orbiting U.S. spacecraft were forced to change course to avoid being damaged soon after the incident. Air Force Brig. Gen. Ted Kresge, director of air, space and information operations at the Air Force Space Command in Colorado, estimates that "essentially (Chinese anti-satellite tests) increase the amount of space debris orbiting the Earth by about 20 percent", and the debris might threaten spacecraft for up to 100 years."

Comments

Well

[Icarus1919]

On the other hand, it looks like the missiles really do work.

Re:Well

[porkchop_d_clown]

made the space over China less habitable to spy satellites

You're not real familiar with how orbits work, are you?

Since that crap is in low orbit, I'm pretty sure it circles the entire planet every couple of hours.

Unless, of course, the Chinese have developed some sort of non-newtonian thruster system that lets their space trash hover in one place.

Re:Well

[CrazedWalrus]

If that wasn't the intended effect and was just a fortuitous (for them) side-effect, you can bet they've learned the lesson, and that it *will* be the intended effect next time.

"We didn't attack your satellites, we attacked our own (*cough*and used it to create a floating fragmentation grenade*cough*)"

Re:Well

[rpj1288]

Once every 90-odd minutes, actually.

Re:Well

[S.O.B.]

The satellite and resulting debris field in question are in low Earth orbit not geostationary orbit and therefore do not remain over the same location on Earth.

Re:Huh?

[NonSequor]

Half of the threatened satellites are American owned, not half of the debris.

SanctionThem?

[Adambomb]

I find the tag of sanctionthem rather odd as how, realistically, would one impose these sanctions? Economic sanctions would be met with retaliatory tariffs; Do not forget that economically, North America needs them more than they need us (i'm not sure of the situation for the rest of the world).

What's left, political pressure? Because of how much China listens to political pressure concerning their own policies? Military pressure?

I do not see it.

Re:SanctionThem?

[Flavio]

I think the SanctionThem was meant to be sarcastic.

With the US economy decelerating and the loss of confidence in the US dollar, the US can't afford to stop trading with China. This move would essentially crash the global economy, and the US has the most to lose due to its massive foreign debt.

Most people don't realise just how rotten the American economic policy is. Back in 71, Nixon realised that the US could no longer finance the Vietnam war without printing money like mad. But the gold standard prevented the Fed from doing that, so he unilaterally cancelled the Bretton Woods system that made the US dollar convertible to gold. This was a total surprise, because he neglected to consult international bankers, and became known as the Nixon Shock. So from that moment on, the US effectively started printing gold. Of course this move didn't fool the bankers around the world, so the Fed had to raise interest rates to 21%/year to convince them to carry on using dollars. Over many years, the markets sort of returned to normal, despite the fact that the US debt had risen to unprecedented levels.

In 2006, the Fed was printing so much money that it stopped publishing the M3 money supply data in order to hide this fact. So now no one really knows how much money the Fed prints. We just estimate that the US foreign debt grows at the rate of $3 billion per day, mostly due to overseas military spending and interest on the already existing debt. This is despite the fact that the US is creating money out of thin air to partially cover this debt. A consequence is that the dollar has fallen in value about 15% in the last year against the Euro.

It bothers me a lot when the Fed governors propose what they call "financial incentive packages". These are usually composed of tax rebates and the central banks injecting money into the markets. Again, it's more money that was created out of thin air, and the tax rebates reduce the government's capacity to cover that money or to cover the debt. It's a temporary fix to the longstanding lack of financial discipline.

The general population typically doesn't care, and this includes Slashdot readers. They think that economics is awfully boring and complicated, and that the government is capable of taking care of policy. But the opposite is happening, and the US debt is getting out of control. This spending obviously makes politicians and contractors a lot of money, so they'll keep doing it until the economy crashes.

Re:SanctionThem?

[mochan_s]

That's backwards. The US has the least to lose, because a debt represents a good that we consumed but have not yet paid for. The first order of business in an economic collapse is to freeze or otherwise abate all foreign debts.

That would essentially mean that the end of all trading. So, the US would have to revert to a self-sustaining economy. US consumes the most resources in the planet per human being and that is not really feaseable.

Either that, or we would just fail to make the payments. That would crash the value of all foreign debts, and so the holders would be lucky to get ten cents on the dollar by selling their paper to speculators (who are betting that we'll pull out of it).

That would lead to imports crashing as well. Then, prices would go up and cause inflation. Then, everything will be worth less and less and foreign buyers will just buy up everything - companies, technology etc. Our stuff will also be sold on ten cents to the dollar out there.

This is why China dearly wants to avoid harming our economy. When somebody owes you an entire year of their salary, and is so far making payments on time, you don't knock them out of a job!

That is until the Chinese economy is the largest in the world which might be in 10-15 years.

Indeed, in the long run, US foreign debts guarantee that other countries align their interests with our own, and look out for our well-being as one would keep an eye on one's best milk cow.

It's only best milk cow as long as the milk flows.

I've seen so people many buy shit they can't afford, live in the moment, default on loans and then file bankruptcy which absolves them of all responsibility since somebody somewhere will bear the burden of it all. I think you're suggesting a similar approach to the economy. I am skeptical of this approach.

Well? What would you expect from Xeonphobes?

[Anonymous Coward]

It's just their way of building the Great Spacewall of China.

Weapons

[ShieldW0lf]

Kind of makes US reliance on space based technological dominance in the theater of war into a bit of a joke, doesn't it. If some dumb nation were to weaponize space, this is how easily they and their efforts could be shut down. Kind of makes the whole idea seem really stupid.

Actually it was good strategy

[NeverVotedBush]

They don't have so many satellites in orbit but could be worried about all the spy satellites the USA has. So they blast one of their junkers into lots of little ballistic missiles that damage all satellites.

It doesn't hurt them so much but it definitely harms other countries.

Re:Huh?

[palegray.net]

Because our junk isn't the result of intentionally detonating explosives in space with the aim of developing technologies designed to disrupt communications, which is kinda the point of the story.

Give it time...

[Tastecicles]

...with all the debris already up there and the continual adding to it by the Chinese, we'll eventually find ourselves planet-locked with nowhere to go without having to run the gauntlet of bolt-sized particles travelling at 17000mph+. Someone's gonna have to go up there and sweep up while at the same time avoiding adding to the mess that's already there. Can you say Planetes?

Re:Huh?

[palegray.net]

Aw crap, somebody read the article :).

...so?

[Timothy Brownawell]

Send someone up with a really big vacuum cleaner.

Re:...so?

[Opportunist]

That's the joke, duh. Vacuum cleaner. Get it? Like, not a "vacuum cleaner", but someone cleaning the vacu...

Never mind, no joke gets better by explaining it.

Re:...so?

[LordKronos]

You mean like Mega Maid?

Re:...so?

[maltwhiskman]

This is all about nothing.

Re:Huh?

[Skuldo]

Someone had to :p

That's a laugh!

[gbutler69]

North America does not *need* China in any sense of the word. That is a complete fallacy. We could cease all trade with China tomorrow and we would be perfectly fine. In fact, we'd probably be better off. Don't start in about all the "goods" we'd be missing. So what! We'd make 'em here. They'd be more expensive, but, that'd be a good thing. By the way, this WILL happen. As the oil reserves in the world dwindle, all nations will increasingly turn inward. Sorry to say it, but all the "international trade" and talk about "free trade" is economic voodoo! It's about to get UGLY! Real UGLY! Prepare for feudal times! By the way, this means the decline of human civilization and our inevitable extinction from this Galaxy. Free Trad, Schmree Trad. It won't matter one bit!

Re:That's a laugh!

[Adambomb]

What in the hell are you talking about? Theres more to prosperity than oil.

Remember who bought up all the steel reserves and is now slowly selling it back to the US? Have you ever been inside ANY manufacturing plant...at all..ever?

US industry would SHUT DOWN ENTIRELY if china pulled the plugs, or be cripplingly disadvantaged compared to the rest of the world if they decided to place punitive tarrifs. And if you think this is limited to crappy dvd players and laser pointers, do not forget that factory farms that are responsible for your daily food run off harvesters and harvester parts made primarily from components from china.

Do you have any idea how the world around you works at all?

Re:That's a laugh!

[peragrin]

Yes and no. Your right China could/would hurt us dramactically. but remember this. All that steel, copper, aluminum that we import is because American's couldn't produce those same materials for that price. pennsylvania is filled with steel even though all the steel forges have shut down.

I don't know if it was by accident or on purpose but we are using up china's steel. While keeping our own stockpiled natures way. Our companies can't compete on price, and closed down, but if price was no longer the issue then we have all sorts of resources available to us. Sure it would take a while to get going again. Lots' of little experience has been lost but If it came right down to it the USA is one of the few countries who could survive such an economic collapse.

Other than Oil and rubber the USA could be self sufficient. We have more than enough old tires floating around that rubber would last until we could get back up on our feet.

While It would hurt the long term repercussions wouldn't be any worse than the great depression. indeed another massive depression could very well be the spark that sets it off.

Re:That's a laugh!

[QuickFox]

Given that we are the most violent society on the face of the planet, The US the most violent? You gotta be kidding. Iraq has political/religious terrorist murders almost every day, that's far more violent than the US.

Of course that's Iraq under the US military, but still...

Looking elsewhere, Darfur is much more violent than the US. Colombia too. Etc.

However I'm pretty sure the US is the most violent in the modern Western developed world. It may perhaps also qualify, among all countries, as the country with the most aggressively violence-prone foreign policy.

Planetes

[lattyware]

Anyone seen the anime Planetes? It's all about people working collecting debris in the future, because there is so much up there, that it is a risk to the (now common and commercial) space flights. Interesting that this is becoming a topic of interest as of late.

Re:maybe that's what the chinese wanted

[RockMFR]

RTFA.

According to the Joint Space Operations Center at Vandenberg Air Force Base in California, the commercial communication satellite Orbcomm FM 36 maneuvered to avoid passing within about 123 feet of the debris field on April 6. A NASA Earth observation satellite Terra was moved June 22 to avoid coming within about 90 feet of the debris.

Where's the news?

[Opportunist]

USA threatened by Chinese junk.

Oh, that it's now also in space? That's the news here, I guess?

Re:Right when the Chinese dump junk in space:

[Opportunist]

You've seen enough Ninja movies haven't you?

Let them come. According to the RIAA we got way more than enough pirates to handle them. Yarr!

Re:Possible outcome.

[gmack]

Which would risk more debris in the atmosphere as the Chinese target every American spy satellite they find to erase the American technical advantage to one of pure numbers where the Chinese have the advantage.

The US military is completely dependant on their technology and the rest of the world knows it. Do their cruise missiles even work without GPS?

Any war by the US against a significantly developed nation runs the risk of rendering space completely useless for the next century. Think about the collateral damage from such a war taking out weather/TV/communications on top of the GPS which would almost certainly be targeted on purpose. The economic damage from that stupidity would be huge.

Letting the Americans know that was most likely a major reason behind the missile test in the first place and it's also why the Americans won't retaliate.

Great Weapon

[3DKnight]

This is probably the best "Denial" type weapon developed. In the case of the chinese, if there was ever a major threat to thier sovereignty they could make the whole orbit plane into a huge denial zone, crippling the more advanced nation that relies on that area, while giving themselves the advatage of using an army that hasn't learned to rely on satellites. the whole mentality of "if we can't have it, neither can you" works very well in warfare. Scorched earth... just taken to the next level.

Re:Possible outcome.

[j. andrew rogers]

"The US military is completely dependant on their technology and the rest of the world knows it. Do their cruise missiles even work without GPS?"

The US has no weapon systems that are GPS guided and never has, precisely because it is vulnerable. The Chinese may have just now gotten around to developing anti-satellite technology, but the Soviet Union had it ages ago.

The core guidance package of US weapon systems is extremely high precision inertial navigation (all systems described as "GPS-guided" are actually inertial -- the media is a bit stupid about these things, as GPS is an optional untrusted overlay on inertial navigation systems). Some intelligent terrain following weapons also use optical geo-referencing. As a matter of policy going back to the Soviet Union days, the US military machine views satellite systems as "nice to have" but its infrastructure is pervasively designed to operate under the presumption that there are no satellites in orbit. The vulnerability of the US military to massive system outages is greatly overstated; the Soviet Union was a much bigger threat on this scale than the Chinese are, and the US military has always been pretty religious about designing systems whose functionality was robust and in the face of rapidly degrading military infrastructure and relatively decentralized. It is easy to forget it, but the Chinese have nothing on the old Soviet Union in terms of technology and force numbers, and that was the doctrinal enemy of much of the modern US military.

Re:Huh?

[vtcodger]

Assuming that Reverend Moon's right wing slag sheet has something right for once, half the debris threatening satellites being American wouldn't be far off since almost all of the 80% that was there prior to the Chinese test was put there over the past 50 years by the US and USSR/Russia. But the Chinese test really does seem to have been irresponsible. Presumably they could just as easily have done their test at with a lower altitude target where the majority of the debris would have decayed and burned up in the atmosphere in a few hours, weeks or months.

Does point out a problem with space warfare though. With current technologies or anything resembling them, there's only going to be one battle and a short one at that. After a few dozen satellite destructions, there will likely be so much junk in orbit that near earth satellite lifetimes will be measured in weeks and manned spaceflight will be ill advised for decades or maybe centuries.

Re:Possible outcome.

[WED Fan]

but I've heard that...

Yeah, many great statements have always followed that opening.

Consider that GPS, when functional, is used to seed initial starting positions, but inertial nav packs are used to provide guidance. Other back up systems include other inertial nav packs, stationary fixes, and celestial navigation.

Consider that the GPS system can be knocked out. But, it's pretty damned hard to change the known locations of fixed locations, its damn near impossible to block good old centuries proved navigation by heavenly objects (unless the Chinese have an unknown deal with Klingons and Vogons) and with modern time keeping and the ability to shoot the stars with computer, it is surprising accurate.

Had you involved yourself at all with your country's military, beyond letting the press inform you, you'd have never made this mistake.

But, you can go on with your, "My best friend's sister's boyfriend's brother's girlfriend heard from this guy who knows this kid who's going with the girl who saw Ferris pass out at 31 Flavors last night. I guess it's pretty serious."

Pullllease, "I heard that..."

Re:Possible outcome.

[j. andrew rogers]

"*cough*JDAM*cough*Tomahawk*cough*F-16*cough*
Sorry got something stupid stuck in my throat. Anyways as I was saying the US has plenty of weapons sytems that use GPS systems and would either become completely ineffective or seriously crippled without it."

As was pointed out elsewhere, neither JDAMs nor Tomahawks (nor F16s for that matter) use GPS guidance -- only technically ignorant tools claim that any US weapon systems use GPS guidance. Even rudimentary research shows that systems like JDAMs and Tomahawk get their navigation data from ultra-precise laser ring interferometers (an extremely precise solid-state optical accelerometer with a purpose similar to mechanical gyroscopes), with the ability to optionally accept GPS fine-tuning corrections. The precision of the inertial systems is classified, but it is generally known that it is apparently not much worse than the GPS corrected version for weapon targeting purposes (they may have already converged for all we know -- INS has been continuously improved, and it wasn't bad to start with). Note that this is also why jamming or toying with the GPS signal does not send bombs and such flying way off course; the inertial system only accepts corrections within the computed error bars of its own positioning data. If the GPS signal is outside those bars, the navigation system assumes the GPS has been compromised.

I just gotta love the armchair weapon designers who think that of the thousands of bright engineers that built all these weapons, it never occurred to anyone that someone might jam or disable the weak RF signal that is GPS. GPS is a convenience, not a necessity, and it would only have small impact on the efficacy of American weaponry -- by design. The reason the US military embeds inertial navigation in everything is precisely because it is essentially impervious to countermeasures short of altering the physics of the universe. For all we know, nominal GPS weapon targeting is largely for show and indirection, since it costs next to nothing to strap a GPS receiver on an inertial navigation system (and it would seem to have worked in that case, considering how much breathless idiocy is fixated on GPS weapon targeting).

As a point of trivia, the laser inertial navigation systems used by the US military were invented in the 1960s for some (failed) ballistic missile interceptor research. Even though the ABM research was a dead end, the laser ring gyro technology developed for the project paid dividends for the US military way out of proportion to the money expended on the ABM research.

Communications ...

[golodh]

Missile guidance systems may work fine without GPS, but as I understand, the military also makes heavy use of other types of satellites in Low Earth Orbit:

- communication satellites (all Command and Control over distances longer than say 20-80 Km; both voice and data).

- reconnaissance satellites (radar reconnaissance satellites, photo reconnaissance satellites, infra-red imaging satellites)

As far as I am aware, most of the emerging "networked" aspects of the military depend on satellite communications. The control of and imagery from Unmanned Aerial Vehicles, and all those automated little messages that collect information from many sensors to where it's combined, analysed, interpreted, and redistributed as terms of a coherent picture of what's where, down to the target coordinates. I believe that we saw both in Kosovo and in the Iraq war how extremely powerful those systems are.

In other words: if someone can destroy those satellites, the US military will -at a stroke- loose its single largest unmatched advantage. So one might imagine that there is some reason for concern.