Helium Crisis Approaching

vrmlguy writes "Within nine years the National Helium Reserve will be depleted, according to an article in Science Daily. It quotes Dr. Lee Sobotka, of Washington University in St. Louis: 'Helium is non-renewable and irreplaceable. Its properties are unique and unlike hydrocarbon fuels (natural gas or oil), there are no biosynthetic ways to make an alternative to helium. All should make better efforts to recycle it.' (The St. Louis Post-Dispatch has a local article with quotes from Dr. Sobotka and representatives of the balloon industry.) On Earth, Helium is found mixed with natural gas, but few producers capture it. Extracting it from the atmosphere is not cost-effective. The US created a stockpile, the National Helium Reserve, in 1925 for use by military dirigibles, but stopped stockpiling it in 1995 as a cost-saving measure."

Comments

This is a capitalist economy

[smittyoneeach]

Remember to spell 'crisis' as 'business opportunity'.

Re:This is a capitalist economy

[Rich0]

Actually - Capitalism can solve this problem rather readily. The problem is that the US government subsidized Helium so that it is dirt cheap, so it is used in situations where it isn't essential.

Natural gas producers throw it away because it costs more to make than you can sell it for. The only reason for that is the US used to pay $5/liter for it and sells it for $1/liter and no longer buys it. (I made up those numbers - they're just illustrative but reflect the problem.)

Assuming there is a decent amount left underground once the shortage becomes acute people will be willing to pay more for helium. Once the market value raises above the cost to produce it people who dig it up will stop throwing it away. At that part the market would regulate its own helium supply/demand.

There really aren't any externalities in this market that I can see (unlike with fossil fuels - where pollution/CO2 needs to be accounted for) - so there is no reason the market wouldn't work. The main reason it isn't working now is because somebody messed with the market for the last 50 years and it will take some time to correct...

Re:This is a capitalist economy

[Jah-Wren Ryel]

Markets continue to function fine when the government doesn't mess with them, as they have with helium since WWI. Indeed. It sure seems like every time someone uses a shortage as an example of the free market failing, it always turns out to be the failure of a regulated or otherwise non-free market.

Re:This is a capitalist economy

[Darth_brooks]

Thanks for making up numbers that much of your argument hinges on. To make a real argument about the affect of the US government on Helium prices you'd have to get REAL numbers, not ones you just made up.

Not necessarily. This article concerns itself only with the national helium reserve. The fact that someone was buying the product created a significant portion of the market. That buyer quit, demand fell, prices fell, profits margins went away, so companies got out of the business of making the product. It doesn't matter if the government was paying $1/liter, $.10/liter, or $1 brazillion dollars per liter. Demand fell, prices went with it.

If there is money to be made, someone will make it. The article answers itself. There is a demand for the product, above and beyond party balloons, and that demand will be met.

helium toy balloons

[TheLink]

Then it does seem a waste to use it on those toy balloons as it's almost a sure thing the helium will be "lost".

Well as it gets scarce the prices will go up. Maybe some people should start hoarding now :).

Where's the problem?

[GreatBunzinni]

Could someone please explain how exactly is there a crisis? I mean, the article states that the only thing that is happening is that the US national helium reserve is being depleted, an artificial stockpile program that stopped stockpiling due to being too expensive. Then it is stated that there are plenty sources of helium but no one bothers to take advantage of them due to the fact that at the moment it simply does not make anyone any money. So, to sum things up, no one bothers to store helium because it isn't cost effective and no one bothers to mine helium because there isn't any money to be made by it.

Doesn't that mean that the offer outweighs the demand by a landslide? Doesn't this mean that there were a lot of people smooching the US national helium reserve for a long time?

Re:Where's the problem?

[Mysticalfruit]

I was just thinking the same thing... once the stockpile is depleted and helium goes (some price way higher than it currently costs) some refiner will look at one of their waste product pipes labeled "Helium" and well... they'll get really happy and call a company about a cryopump and some storage tanks... shortage solved...

Peak Everything

[Ralph Spoilsport]

As a civilisation we are facing Peak Everything a century of resource decline in the face of population expansion.

It's not the End of the World, but you can see it from here, and if we're not careful Things Could Go Poorly. The problem is the smartest people around think "technology" will fix the "resource" problem. Given unlimited energy and resources, perhaps this is true, but we don't live in a world where there are unlimited resources. So, if we're at the top of the heap - look around you: this is as good as it gets.

RS

Re:Peak Everything

[Aladrin]

Of course, given unlimited energy and resources, there wouldn't be a crisis to begin with.

As for technology fixing the problem... How do you know it won't? 100 years ago, they could have said the same... And been wrong. Nuclear was invented after that.

Every generation seems to think this is 'as good as it gets' and every generation has been proven wrong. Our technology is still advancing faster than ever.

Am I putting blind faith in technology? No. I think we should conserve and recycle. I think we should specifically research the issues of the day instead of random other things. But I also know that researching 'random other things' has created some of our best technology.

Re:Peak Everything

[tgd]

While it sounds noble to talk about space travel, and at once level you're right, comparing what we did as a species 40 years ago and what we'd need to do to really utilize those resources on Earth is like saying getting into orbit is easy because the Chinese invented rockets two thousand years ago.

Do take a stroll by any of your local industrial plants -- doesn't matter what it is. Steel, say. Or a gas liquification plant. Now figure out how you're going to get all of that into space. Not orbit, you need it orbiting the sun, not the Earth because the stuff you're talking about what we want isn't floating around around the earth. Now figure out how you're going to shield it from radiation, and feed the hundreds of employees. And keep in mind all of that capacity is to produce something for a regional demand, not a global demand.

Even when you've got it, now figure out how you're going to get it back down to the ground. (We'll ignore the fact that most of the resources are tied up in other gravity wells...)

Your statement may be intellectually correct, but its about as realistic as sitting in the jungles of central america 12,000 years ago and taking solice in the availability of some resource you need, buried a mile inside of Everest and nowhere else.

Re:Peak Everything

[Angostura]

Every generation seems to think this is 'as good as it gets' and every generation has been proven wrong.

I think you may need to adjust your frame of reference somewhat. Have a look at the fall of he Roman Empire, the Dark Ages, what happened to the Mayans, Easter Island etc. and think again about whether every generation has been proven wrong

Re:Peak Everything

[moosesocks]

Our understanding of Physics and Geology is undisputedly the best that it ever has been. One could even argue that our understanding of physical phenomena that occur for "human-sized" systems is nearly complete.

Granted, we still have a long ways to go in terms of exploiting those laws of physics to generate energy/resources, but the fact remains that our "catalogue" of Earth's natural resources is largely complete.

We know what materials are available to us, we know which of those materials can be used to generate energy, and we know that we're quickly running out of all of them. Although Nuclear fusion/fission offer the promise of "turning nothing into something", even our current supply of fissile material is most certainly finite (and we must take great care to properly re-process and re-use spent fuel).

I'd love to be proven wrong, but I'm really not sure we're going to uncover any magical new energy sources in the near future. Fusion research should of course be pursued (preferably funding several different designs, as there are quite a few worthy candidates), although every current indication shows that viable Fusion generation is going to be *really* *really* difficult, even if we do figure out how to sustain the reaction.

Re:Peak Everything

[Reality Master 101]

The problem is the smartest people around think "technology" will fix the "resource" problem. Given unlimited energy and resources, perhaps this is true, but we don't live in a world where there are unlimited resources.

Sheesh. Every century seems to have people who think, "Yeah, the good times are rolling now, but judgment day is coming! Repent now!

Will there be problems in the future? Of course there will. But then "magically" something will come along to solve them. To use the cliche, "necessity is the mother of invention." Look around you. We have supercapacitors that are being invented because of concern about oil prices (by the way, we will NEVER run out of oil. NEVER. It will just get more expensive until something else replaces it). We can fire up nuclear plants (and breeder reactors) anytime we want (and really, really need to). We've just had an article the other day about new solid-state solar stirling engines, and another one about mass-production solar cells to reduce cost. Some of them will pan out, some of them won't. But it is absolutely true that civilization isn't going to collapse. In fact, civilization is, at most, going to be slightly inconvenienced. SUVs will always be available (thank God).

The solar system is FLOODED with energy. It really is effectively unlimited.

Increase public awareness

[Mantaar]

... not only of a looming Helium shortage - just google for "Aluminum Shortage" and take a look at the results... many resources on earth are becoming more and more scarce while everybody seems to only concentrate on energy resources.

That, my friends is one of the best reasons for putting money into space exploration rather than wars for oil. We're still far from being able to actually mine anything that's not already on our planet, but we're not so far from a shortage in the critical resources that would make extraterrestrial retrieval of resources possible in the first place.

With Helium it's actually a matter of re-using what we have - gas recycling hasn't been much of an issue in the past, but people need to hear about it. And please don't throw 'statistical evidence' at me that suggests 'there is no crisis'. Even the potential crisis is enough to be worried about it, if the implications are that dramatic. Much of our economical and scientific growth currently depends on the reckless abuse of non-renewable (or non-renewed) resources. We don't want to break Moore's Law, do we?

Re:What?

[Jeff DeMaagd]

I don't think our society remembers being in a time of shortage - and I think that's a problem. It's easy to consume and throw away things if you don't think there will be a problem in getting more, and that attitude is pretty wasteful.

Cost effective?

[phorm]

Extracting it from the atmosphere is not cost-effective

Not now, but as the availability goes down and focus turns to finding ways to extract helium more efficiently, along with a sharp price rise, then the incipient profit involved in extraction will likely create a market for atmospheric or some other method of extraction... or perhaps lead to the future ability to synthesise helium.

My question: can any science-types here list some important uses of helium? I'm sure that there are some, but I can't think of any off the top of my head.

Supply and demand

[Anonymous Coward]

TFA says few natural gas producers recover the helium from their wells. If the price of helium rises due to scarcity, those producers will recover the helium. Problem solved.

Don't forget the physics

[tastiles]

Two important points about helium

1. It's the smallest atom/molecule, since hydrogen is diatomic and H2 is a bit bigger than He. This makes it more difficult to store as it can get through any holes in a container

2. It escapes from the atmosphere. So, once it's out of the container it goes into outer space and is gone forever.

Re:No more helium?

[Phroggy]

<chipmunk voice>Oh, no!</chipmunk voice>

Nmtoken can't contain whitespace. Turn in your nerd card.

<voice type="chipmunk">Shut up and let him have his fun.</voice>