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Modeling Urban Panic

Posted by ScuttleMonkey on from the godzilla-disappointed dept.

Schneier is reporting that Arizona State University's Paul Torrens has been developing a computer simulation to model urban panic. "The goal of this project is to develop a reusable and behaviorally founded computer model of pedestrian movement and crowd behavior amid dense urban environments, to serve as a test-bed for experimentation." The simulation tests behaviors from how a crowd flees from a burning car to how a pathogen might be transmitted through a mobile pedestrian over time among others.

7 of 105 comments (clear)

  1. You need a simulation for this? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Funny


    The simulation tests behaviors from how a crowd flees from a burning car

    Hmmm... my guess is AWAY from the burning car.

    1. Re:You need a simulation for this? by phobos13013 · · Score: 5, Insightful

      It could be, but I believe some parameters of the modeling AI need to be changed. Take a look at the massive crowd evacuating through the small aperture. The crowds on the fringe just stand there and pile up while the late-comers in the middle flow right through since the fringes dont move. In a real crowd (even under regular evacuation measures and not one in a "panic") would never go for this! People would constantly be trying to overcome the person not moving in front of them! The fringe individuals would immediately relocate to the center which is dwindling in length.

      I don't think this model takes a lot of human behavior into consideration. One requirement could be that the individuals never stop moving, they will always take the available (open) path towards the exit even if it is not the straight line path which they are lined up in queue for. It also doesn't take into the consideration of a possibility of a trample situation where perhaps a threshold value of energy from a surging crowd overcomes the resistance of the small group of slower moving individuals in front. But of course, this is a great start for a complex computational issue!

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      ...and it should be known by now
  2. Yes but can it model... by billius · · Score: 5, Interesting

    a zombie attack? And if so, can it compensate for the differences between slow-moving George Romero zombies and fast-moving British zombies?

  3. didn't they do this... by notgm · · Score: 5, Funny

    didn't they do model this already in the Grand Theft Auto series?

    step a. pedestrian looks at event.
    step b. pedestrian throws hands in air.
    step c. pedestrian runs away.
    step d. pedestrian gets winded, approximately 1/2 block from event.
    step e. pedestrian forgets event.
    step f. pedestrian walks around aimlessly.
    step g. (sometimes) pedestrian's head explodes, becomes event triggering new step a.

    seemed pretty darn realistic to me.

  4. Links to the Rendered Videos by phobos13013 · · Score: 5, Interesting

    Much more interesting than the Schneir description of the actual site in question. Here they have fully rendered videos from multiple vantages of the studies amongst other research topics of the professor.

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    ...and it should be known by now
  5. Number 4 is funnier by spun · · Score: 5, Funny

    4) design a mall which can compel customers to shop to the point of bankruptcy, to walk obliviously for miles and miles and miles, endlessly to the point of physical exhaustion and even death; Now that's what I call science! Now, if only we could design a website that compelled people to browse, even to the point of losing their jobs, reading obliviously to their need to shower, posting endlessly to the point of mental confusion and even complete retardation... Oh, wait...
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    - None can love freedom heartily, but good men; the rest love not freedom, but license. -- John Milton
  6. What about a dynamic environments... by moncho · · Score: 5, Interesting

    This completely reminded me of the opening of the London Millennium Bridge in London (crossing the Thames) were the bridge (nicknamed the Wobbly bridge) began to sway due to a few pedestrians who, by happenstance, inadvertently stepped in the same direction at the same time, causing a slight sway which on the rebound caused a few more people to step into the same direction, causing further swaying, increasing the effect w/ every oscillation. This effect is known as Synchronous Lateral Excitation. The funny thing is that each step, even several in synchrony, have negligible effects on bridge stress models... it was that this particular sway happened in such a way that forced more pedestrians on the bridge to step INTO the direction of the sway, continuing until most everyone on the bridge (up to 2,000 pedestrians) were contributing energy to the sway. The aforementioned is an instance of an unexpected design flaw due to inadequate modeling, and one can always come up w/ such instances, but these are meant to be learned and avoided... not repeated.