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Hardware Vendors Will Follow Money To Open Source
Stony Stevenson writes "Dirk Hohndel, Intel's chief technologist for open source, believes the installed base of Linux-based desktops could potentially double this year, based just on Eee PC sales. Speaking at open source conference Linux.conf.au in Melbourne, Hohndel said commercial pressure will be the incentive for traditionally Windows-centric hardware vendors to begin offering open source drivers and Linux-based systems to their customers. 'Open source has made the most inroads in the server market, where Linux-based servers represent roughly a quarter of the total market. But in other segments, such as mobile phones and desktops where open source hasn't had as much of an impact, vendors were less interested, Hohndel said. Linux penetration of the desktop environment is currently at around 0.8 percent, but Hohndel said consumer behavior is changing this.'"
While I think he makes sense, I think something else will be a far more important factor in driving Linux and open-source into the mainstream - the integration of technological products based on linux, across multiple platforms. The Google phone concept, if it is realized successfully by multiple companies, will certainly provide much of the impulse needed to push Linux into the consumer mainstream.
Just the ability to sync your mobile phone with a Linux platform (which I assume it will provide) will be a huge boost for Linux on the desktop, when it comes to small and medium business.
Actually, the slashdot "does it run linux" meme is very much appropriate here. If the devices you want run Linux and are compatible with other Linux devices, it only makes sense to adopt an all-Linux home/shop/business, etc...
To be fair, a lot of people don't care about embedded because no one sees the OS in embedded systems. It just isn't as Glamorous as desktops. Not that embedded systems aren't important mind you.
A blog about stuff.
That's only if you call the Eee pc a desktop. Don't they even refer to it as a "mobile internet device" or something like that?
He said something different though: "The Eee PC is expected to hit 3 and a half million in 2008. There's a single computer that's going to double this figure this year". It seems the cop-out is in the summary rather than in Hohndel's statement.
Point taken.
The Year of Linux on the Desktop.
Twice nothing is still nothing.
I am always a bit wary when people talk about usage of some particular system "doubling." Linux usage will undoubtedly increase on the desktop, but doubling? That's a very generous estimate of the situation. I would be happy if it doubled, if only because people would slowly stop assuming that everybody in the world is either a Windows or Mac user. Let's be serious though: it will not double, unless someone big like Dell or HP actually tries marketing their Linux systems. Dell's Linux systems go un-advertised, and therefore unnoticed by anyone who doesn't know what Linux is or why it is worth their time.
Palm trees and 8
IMO it's already been happening, even without the Eee PC. Dell and other large vendors (dont Walmart do cheap Linux desktops?) are taking notice and getting on board. Vista is making people aware that they don't have to just use XP, and the fact that it has a lot of incompatibilities, and plain sucks, makes it a better time for people to try out alternatives (or 'evangelise' to their friends, but I cba these days, I'm happy even with little things like Firefox taking off and showing the possibilities of opensource software on the desktop.. in fact I have to point out Firefox next time someone looks incredulously at me when I suggest that they can get a free piece of software like the GIMP to perform a function that they usually pay for..)
which is totally what she said
They were editing with MS Paint
Let's face it, not a lot of people are going to wipe out their Windows and install Linux. But something like the 'eee' is a good platform to put a wedge in the door. Even if it's just a tiny wedge. People will use it without even knowing it's Linux. They will understand that part of the low price is because Windows isn't on the machine.
All they'll know is they can surf and do email, and maybe listen to some music. Next they'll want to know if they can open a spreadsheet or write a document. Eventually they'll say, "Oh, this is Linux. This isn't so bad."
I've always thought that phrase was just something lame and idiotic bloggers who want traffic and respect, would say. I mean afterall, it's been said for the last decade or whatever, so I've never taken it seriously.
:)
Now, though, I'm starting to think it might actually have some weight. You've got Dell, Asus and other vendors shipping hardware with Linux on it. Hell, even Tesco here in the UK sell Ubuntu PCs.
Anything that wipes that smug look off Ballmer's face is good enough for me
ilovegeorgebush
How do they come up with this figure? Microsoft can count every PC sold with Windows installed plus other licenses sold, Apple can count computers sold, but GNU can be freely given away.
I gave copies of Mandriva to several people last year. None of these copies of that OS is counted as a desktop OS; they are counted as Windows, since they were either added to Windows machines as dual boot or replaced Windows completely.
A lot of GNU desktops MUST be being counted as Windows. Nobody asked ME how many copies of Linux I gave away!
Someone (Clemons?) once said there are three kinds of lies - lies, damned lies, and statistics.
-mcgrew
(don't bother with today's journal)
mcgrew's razor: Never attribute to stupidity that which can be explained by greedy self-interest
You mean all those other devs I meet in IRC with handles like "billgroolz!" and "ballmerrocksmyballs" "jobsisawiener" weren't being sarcastic?!
I did wonder why I saw this chunk of code creep into ubuntu CVS as well;
if [ parttype.sda1 = "NTFS" && parttype.sda2 = "EvilLinuxFilesystem" ]
sda1.wipedrive
print "pwned by teh Ballmer!"
exit
Fortunatele for me, it wasn't written in any exploitable programming language as gcc doesn't understand bad pseudocode. Although I'm sure are writing a patch for it as we speak.
Moderation Total: -1 Troll, +3 Goat
Actually reality is that NOBODY has commercial games anymore.. Windows has games, but they're not in the numbers XBox or even PS3 as far as sales. Mac gets crumby games and they're growing... why?
The opportunity is open to move laterally into Vista territory. Vista is "better" than XP, but not better "enough" to throw away XP and spend twice as much money on a Vista compatible computer.... since Microsoft spent the entire XP era shooting PC gaming in the foot (with XBOX) the number of people that care about high performance is dwindling... combine that with Intel's "integrated" graphics that again limit gaming or other high end apps and 75% of customers really aren't buying machines much past these low end boxes.
The downside of Vista is that there is really nothing special Vista does, few apps, etc, that do something you can't do on Mac or Linux. (as we've taken gaming off the table and most people don't run "high end apps") Now is the time OEMS will want to move some hardware anyway they can. Due to the price of Vista, the sub $300 market is ripe for linux picking. The very dangerous thing will be when OEMS start selling small systems to do "just one task" very well.. eeePC is the tip of that spear... as they sell them hand over fist, more OEMS will want do do that too.
I think your average user would be better served by other applications. And for all the times I hear "but they won't have Photoshop", I have to wonder how many people actually use PS in the first place. Outside a handful of graphic designers, no one I know has it installed.
Dewey, what part of this looks like authorities should be involved?
If they offered the EXACT SAME device running Embedded XP it would be far less capable of a machine. I'm a Embedded XP developer and hardware guy, I know it's limitations very well.
asus is winning because they are competing where Microsoft CANT. They cant fit a fully functional OS and app suite in that small of a place that runs that swiftly.
This is where Linux is shining. it's kicking the crap out of the big guys because it's far more scalable. Everyone else is interested in bigger and badder, while Linux and BSD both have sat there making sure it runs fine on tiny spaces.
Do not look at laser with remaining good eye.
Linux hardware support might very well come. Open-source drivers aren't going to be the way it happens.
The problem is today most computer gear is commodity chips with the software/firmware/driver making it a unique product with a value proposition for the consumer. The hardware is easy to replicate - China has built a large part of their enconomy doing just that. The software is more difficult - so much more difficult that successful companies in the hardware space may be taking advantage of Far East production of the hardware device but keeping the firmware and drivers close to the vest. Failure to do that invites theft and results in a cheap knock-off with the R&D provided for them.
What this means is a printer where the driver does most of the work is cheap to design and cheap to produce. Anyone can copy the printer. Copying the driver - unless the hardware is 100% identical - isn't going to work. But if the source were available, it could easily be adapted to slightly different hardware by a junior programmer. Instant windfall for someone.
Same goes for a next-generation gigabit network card that has firmware downloaded into it or just about any software-based device you can think of.
Patent protection is meaningless in a global environment where one party doesn't respect any patents. Look at the DVD player situation today - $29 retail DVD players are not paying the $6 DVD Forum licensing fee. There isn't enough room in there for $6 to anyone. But the US Customs folks allow these in all day long even though they are violating US patents. To block them would uselessly create trade problems and would prevent US consumers from getting cheap DVD players. This happens with every other sort of device you can imagine.
I am always a bit wary when people talk about usage of some particular system "doubling." Linux usage will undoubtedly increase on the desktop, but doubling?
Yeah, now TWO people will use it!
Give me Classic Slashdot or give me death!
http://catb.org/~esr/writings/world-domination/world-domination-201.html
~ C.
Never mind the EEE, how about the laptops that have some actual quality in them? It's one thing to shortchange the laptop and use lower quality/knockoff components all around(and get support out of desperation); it's another thing with laptops that are actually worth their expense in proven design and quality components(and get support).
As for the China Problem, once there is someone brave enough to say "no" to them(and to those who step in their place) and enforce patent controls to where we can control quality with our borders.
Twitter supports and protects racists - by smearing their critics with the "Hate Speech" label.
STOP PIRATING WINDOWS if you want linux to grow.
This means refusing to hand your cd's over to your friends, refusing to visit usenet or x/y torrent site and download it, etc.
If you present them with the actual cost of windows, rather than the ubiquitous perception of "free", they will be compelled to see the real value...
200 bucks for MS operating system, or free for one that works 99% as well for 99% of users.
VLC FOR MAC IS DYING! IF YOU DEVELOP, PLEASE SAVE IT!!
Let me back up. The majority of educational software is now web-based. 90% of middle and high school computer usage is either web based or using a dedicated word processor. It's not the Asus specifically that has us interested, but the concept. If you've seen the Asus, it's really more like a web appliance. The average person would look at it the same way they look at the iPhone or an ATM machine... they don't know or care what the OS is underneath.
So for education, this could be huge. As competition increases and these devices get down to $199, the previously expensive idea of "one laptop per child" does not seem so expensive any more. There are three groups of people who need to be paying close attention to this: Microsoft, Apple, and Textbook makers.
Put this together with education's interest in "Web 2.0," aka "The Read/Write Web" where all your school books and files are available to you online anywhere, and you're brewing up the perfect storm. Apple should be working on a device of their own right now, if they're smart, and Microsoft.... Microsoft should be praying.
Music - www.richardmac.com
You mean they had them in stock all the time before you told Slashdot where to get one?
systemd is not an init system. It's a GNU replacement.
I've been a Windows user for years, as much as it pains me. I've experimented with linux distros before, but the learning curve combined with my need for efficiently running all sorts of apps all day have stopped me making a real effort - inevitably I'd come across the need for software that I couldn't find, or just didn't have the time to learn again on a new system, so my desktop always ends up rebooting to Windows and staying there.
With devices like the XO laptop and the eeePC, I have the low-cost option for a second machine to run linux. Now I feel like I can outlay a relatively small amount, keep using my mission-critical windows apps, and learn to use linux properly without a down side. The option of adding an OS to my routine, rather than switching completely, makes linux a lot more inviting.
Last time I installed Windows was last August, pretty standard hardware, a copy of XP home SP2... And a driver disk for the network card, the sound card, the TV tuner card, The motherboard drivers, the keyboard and mouse, and last but not least, the video card. All non Microsoft drivers for hardware designed primarily to run on Windows. Oh.. and I needed to make a driver disk to get windows to recognize the SATA drive I was about to install onto, and needed a second keyboard and mouse to get everything working, as Windows didn't recognize my Logitech wireless usb keyboard and mouse.
Now for Linux, I inserted the disk, and I had the network card recognized and set up automatically, and the sound card was also automatically set up and working on first boot, as was the motherboard drivers with USB2 functionality, and the SATA drive was recognised as such and treated appropriately. All on the exact same hardware which was all older than the copy of Windows I was installing. I would have had to download drivers for the video card, but thats about it. And Linux took minutes to format the entire 500gig drive, where Windows took hours.
If I am to take your statement seriously, we should hold Microsoft directly responsible for any hardware that does not work under Windows, as to paraphrase your comment, "It is up to the developers to put in the effort to make Windows run as well as possible"
It is difficult to get a man to understand something when his job depends on not understanding it.