Hardware Vendors Will Follow Money To Open Source

Stony Stevenson writes "Dirk Hohndel, Intel's chief technologist for open source, believes the installed base of Linux-based desktops could potentially double this year, based just on Eee PC sales. Speaking at open source conference Linux.conf.au in Melbourne, Hohndel said commercial pressure will be the incentive for traditionally Windows-centric hardware vendors to begin offering open source drivers and Linux-based systems to their customers. 'Open source has made the most inroads in the server market, where Linux-based servers represent roughly a quarter of the total market. But in other segments, such as mobile phones and desktops where open source hasn't had as much of an impact, vendors were less interested, Hohndel said. Linux penetration of the desktop environment is currently at around 0.8 percent, but Hohndel said consumer behavior is changing this.'"

Comments

Integration is key

[TheMeuge]

While I think he makes sense, I think something else will be a far more important factor in driving Linux and open-source into the mainstream - the integration of technological products based on linux, across multiple platforms. The Google phone concept, if it is realized successfully by multiple companies, will certainly provide much of the impulse needed to push Linux into the consumer mainstream.

Just the ability to sync your mobile phone with a Linux platform (which I assume it will provide) will be a huge boost for Linux on the desktop, when it comes to small and medium business.

Actually, the slashdot "does it run linux" meme is very much appropriate here. If the devices you want run Linux and are compatible with other Linux devices, it only makes sense to adopt an all-Linux home/shop/business, etc...

Re:Integration is key

[morgan_greywolf]

Yeah, this might sound wacky to some, but it's actually right on the money. Integration is a key selling point for the desktop leaders, Microsoft's Windows and Apple's OS X. If I walk into CompUSA, Best Buy, or buy something off of NewEgg or whatever, it's pretty much a given that it's going to work with Windows. In addition, if I walk into an Apple store, it's pretty much a given that anything I walk out with will work with the latest version of OS X.

On Linux, we get a bad rap for poor hardware support. It's not really the case. We have good or, in many cases, excellent hardware support for a wide swath of popular hardware. But you have to do the necessary research to know what to buy and what not to buy when it comes to buying hardware for your Linux machine. In the Windows world, you stick with the big names -- they're guaranteed to work. In the Linux world, one scanner model from a vendor might be supported by SANE and another from the same vendor might not be.

A bright, enterprising individual would do well to come up with an online and -- even better -- a brick and mortar store that specializes in selling hardware that works well on Linux. Sure, it's been tried before and failed -- but that was then and this now and Linux has gotten much better support for hardware in recent years.

Re:Cool! A new year!

[Compholio]

Also, not trolling here, I really hope Linux does explode and gain market share...it's just I've heard this year after year after year. But I suppose that one year it's actually going to happen.

Personally, I think we're getting really close to a tipping point. The past couple months have been the first time I've had people notice I'm not running Windows on my laptop and look interested rather than disgusted. I then try to remain as calm as possible (getting too excited puts people off) and explain that they can get Ubuntu for free, and even buy computers with it pre-loaded, and all the benefits of using a system built around free software.

Re:Potentially? Come on.

[Asic Eng]

saying that it could potentially happen is a cop-out

He said something different though: "The Eee PC is expected to hit 3 and a half million in 2008. There's a single computer that's going to double this figure this year". It seems the cop-out is in the summary rather than in Hohndel's statement.

2000^h1^h2^h3^h4^h5^h6^h7^h8

[hawks5999]

The Year of Linux on the Desktop.

Re:Potentially? Come on.

[betterunixthanunix]

I am always a bit wary when people talk about usage of some particular system "doubling." Linux usage will undoubtedly increase on the desktop, but doubling? That's a very generous estimate of the situation. I would be happy if it doubled, if only because people would slowly stop assuming that everybody in the world is either a Windows or Mac user. Let's be serious though: it will not double, unless someone big like Dell or HP actually tries marketing their Linux systems. Dell's Linux systems go un-advertised, and therefore unnoticed by anyone who doesn't know what Linux is or why it is worth their time.

As it is frequently pointed out in this site...

[tripmine]

He believes the install base of Linux-based desktops could potentially double this year, based just on Eee PC sales..

Double of a small number is still a small number.

Year of the Linux Desktop

[ilovegeorgebush]

I've always thought that phrase was just something lame and idiotic bloggers who want traffic and respect, would say. I mean afterall, it's been said for the last decade or whatever, so I've never taken it seriously.
Now, though, I'm starting to think it might actually have some weight. You've got Dell, Asus and other vendors shipping hardware with Linux on it. Hell, even Tesco here in the UK sell Ubuntu PCs.

Anything that wipes that smug look off Ballmer's face is good enough for me :)

0.8 percent?

[sm62704]

How do they come up with this figure? Microsoft can count every PC sold with Windows installed plus other licenses sold, Apple can count computers sold, but GNU can be freely given away.

I gave copies of Mandriva to several people last year. None of these copies of that OS is counted as a desktop OS; they are counted as Windows, since they were either added to Windows machines as dual boot or replaced Windows completely.

A lot of GNU desktops MUST be being counted as Windows. Nobody asked ME how many copies of Linux I gave away!

Someone (Clemons?) once said there are three kinds of lies - lies, damned lies, and statistics.

-mcgrew
(don't bother with today's journal)