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First 10 Teams in $30M Google Lunar X Prize Announced

coondoggie writes to mention that the first ten teams racing for the $30 million Google Lunar X Prize have been announced. The competitors will try to be the first team to land a privately funded robotic spacecraft on the moon capable of traveling at least 1,600 feet and returning video, images, and data. The teams include Romanian-based ARCA, Italy-based Team Italia, and several different teams from around the US, many of which competed in the Ansari X Prize.

87 comments

  1. Oh no! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 3, Funny

    Romulans are competing!

  2. Much better challenge by HEbGb · · Score: 4, Insightful

    This is a much better challenge than the X-prize, which didn't even include orbit. It was amusing to watch, but really not a huge deal imo.

    I fear, however, that $30m isn't nearly enough to cover the budget for a lunar mission, even if someone does end up winning the prize.

    1. Re:Much better challenge by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Who gets to maintain the rights to the technology they develop? wouldn't that be worth more in the long run?

    2. Re:Much better challenge by moderatorrater · · Score: 4, Insightful

      And the original X-prize wasn't enough to cover the budget for developing the tools for a private venture to get into space either. $30 million should be enough to get to the moon once you have the equipment, and it might even be enough to cover the equipment, but it sure won't cover the development of the equipment. Like the X-prize, this is more of a rebate so that companies can expect to get some money back on a venture that's going to earn them a lot of money from other sources.

      $30 million is also a good excuse for rich people to compete.

    3. Re:Much better challenge by CrispBH · · Score: 3, Funny

      I fear, however, that $30m isn't nearly enough to cover the budget for a lunar mission, even if someone does end up winning the prize. If they got the same guys in who designed the 2012 Olympic logo, I'd say this fully buzzword compliant poster probably cost that much alone. Moon 2.0; Cheese Edition?
    4. Re:Much better challenge by zx75 · · Score: 1

      None of the multi-million dollar prizes are enough to cover the budget of any of these attempts, whether it be the Ansari X-prize or Google's "shoot the moon".

      The real prize is the prestige of winning it, or even just competing. The actual monetary prize is just a token.

      --
      This is not a sig.
    5. Re:Much better challenge by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1, Insightful

      They aren't trying to fund an entire space mission here. It is merely an incentive.

    6. Re:Much better challenge by OnlineAlias · · Score: 1

      Its true. The 30 mil is just so that everyone can look at one another and say "IT'S ON, BITCHES!"

    7. Re:Much better challenge by johnsonav · · Score: 3, Funny

      I don't know, 30 million will buy a lot of 2-liter soda bottles and one hell of an air compressor. I better go call that Canadian guy.

      --
      ... and that's when the C.H.U.D.'s came at me.
    8. Re:Much better challenge by timeOday · · Score: 1

      This is a much better challenge than the X-prize, which didn't even include orbit. It was amusing to watch, but really not a huge deal imo.
      The original X-prize for space was, on the other hand, for a manned spacecraft. That's a pretty big distinction you should draw if you want to compare & contrast the coolness of X-prize vs. Lunar X-prize.
    9. Re:Much better challenge by khallow · · Score: 1

      This is a much better challenge than the X-prize, which didn't even include orbit. It was amusing to watch, but really not a huge deal imo.

      In your opinion. As I see it, it's opened the way for not only more prizes, but also substantial development of space tourism. We'll see if the current effort lasts, but as I see it, there's a good chance that the X-Prize marks the start of real space development and exploration.

    10. Re:Much better challenge by mattwarden · · Score: 1

      Ok, but it is quite a bit to SUBSIDIZE such a mission. I think that's the idea. Dear Company-who-was-already-interested-in-this, if you step up your game, we'll pay for $30m of the project.

    11. Re:Much better challenge by gambino21 · · Score: 1

      Since it's really not enough to cover the development costs, it seems to me like it would be better to have multiple prizes instead of just one. Having 1st, 2nd, and 3rd prizes of 15, 10, and 5 million would be more encouraging to the various competitors IMO. That way the first company to do accomplish the goal would get 15, and maybe the second company is able to do the same thing more slowly, but also more cheaply and possibly with other advantages. That way you continue the competition over a greater time period, and possibly foster more innovation.

    12. Re:Much better challenge by deopmix · · Score: 5, Informative

      My senior design project is to design a mission from the ground up that could potentially compete in the competition. Our preliminary budgets are coming in around $20-30 million, so it's not impossible to do it for that price. What most people don't realize is that you don't have to send a 1000 kg rover to the moon, we are looking at a mass to the moon of about 75-100 kg. This allows you to use much smaller launch vehicles which are considerably cheaper, in fact we only need to get about 800 kg to LEO which can be done for under $10 million. Additionally most of the technology is already in place to do this, so there wouldn't be a lot of development costs.

    13. Re:Much better challenge by Wilbasa1 · · Score: 4, Informative

      Actually, that's basically exactly what they have: a $20M first place, $5M second place, and $5M in bonuses. Another $2M bonus was just added to the competition if you launch out of the state of Florida.

    14. Re:Much better challenge by imipak · · Score: 1

      800kg to LEO "can be done" for $10 million? Extraordinary claims require some evidence please...

    15. Re:Much better challenge by deopmix · · Score: 1

      The SpaceX Falcon 1e will cost $8.5 million for the end user, and can get 750 kg to LEO, according to the fact sheets provided by SpaceX. It is not operational as of yet, however current plans are to launch it in 2009, which is well before the December 31, 2012 deadline.

  3. Sadly, Team Rocket is not among them by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0, Funny

    Google's Sergei Brin was heard to scream "PIKACHU! I CHOOSE YOU!" shortly after the announcement.

    1. Re:Sadly, Team Rocket is not among them by R3d+M3rcury · · Score: 1

      Alas, neither is Charles Rocket.

  4. Of course they'll win, too by blueZ3 · · Score: 1

    Federation fools! Our ship is already on your moon, but it cleverly cloaked, so you'll just have to take our word for it and send us the $1 million

    --
    Interested in a Flash-based MAME front end? Visit mame.danzbb.com
  5. I'm disappointed that there's no UK team by Finallyjoined!!! · · Score: 2, Funny

    Come on lads!

    You don't need a parachute to land on the moon, don't let the failure of that Mars thingy stop you :-)

    --
    If I had an Ass, I'd call it Fanny Bottom, then I could slap my Ass; Fanny Bottom, on the Arse.
    1. Re:I'm disappointed that there's no UK team by Drathos · · Score: 1

      Swindon is still trying to find a longer ladder..

      (apologies to Eddie Izzard)

      --
      End of line..
    2. Re:I'm disappointed that there's no UK team by cmacb · · Score: 1

      Not to mention a parachute won't do you any good.

      Which makes me realize that with todays technology, if we ever land a man on a planet large enough to sustain an earth-like atmosphere, the chances of ever having them return is nil.

    3. Re:I'm disappointed that there's no UK team by ozbird · · Score: 2, Funny

      The UK team are too busy doing Top Gear stunts.

    4. Re:I'm disappointed that there's no UK team by AJWM · · Score: 1

      if we ever land a man on a planet large enough to sustain an earth-like atmosphere, the chances of ever having them return is nil.

      Nonsense, we've done it a few times already. For example, Gordon Cooper flew in space for over 34 hours, landed on a planet large enough to sustain a very earth-like atmosphere, and returned to space just over two years later, spending another 8 days in space before landing on Earth. Granted, he did have the help of some of the local inhabitants to get back into space again, and it wasn't in the same spacecraft.

      Quite a few others made similar trips. ;-)

      --
      -- Alastair
  6. Well? by Eddy+Luten · · Score: 2, Interesting

    Where's John Carmack's Armadillo Aerospace? I would think that these guys would jump at a chance like this since they could use some promotion after what happened last year.

    1. Re:Well? by FleaPlus · · Score: 1
      Where's John Carmack's Armadillo Aerospace? I would think that these guys would jump at a chance like this since they could use some promotion after what happened last year.

      Personally, I think it'd be quite interesting to see them partner up with someone else, focusing on the lander while somebody else constructs the rover. From their FAQ:

      http://www.armadilloaerospace.com/n.x/Armadillo/Home/FAQ#lunarXPrize

      Do you plan to compete in the recently-announced Google Lunar X Prize?

      We've discussed it and have considered approaches for it, but we have no firm plans at this time. We have a lot of other things to think about at the moment, and getting to the moon is further down that list.
  7. They're just doing it by Trigun · · Score: 5, Funny

    to see if the U.S. really did land on the moon.

    1. Re:They're just doing it by julesh · · Score: 2

      Actually, I think it's part of google's master plan.

    2. Re:They're just doing it by Xandar01 · · Score: 1

      Then all US teams should be forbidden to enter cause they are likely just there to keep the hoax alive and all.

      --
      Life moves pretty fast; if you don't stop and look around once in a while, you could miss it. -FB
    3. Re:They're just doing it by moderatorrater · · Score: 0, Flamebait

      The actual prize is for those who can fake a moon landing the best. What with camera costs, the director, actors and actresses, and the cost of keeping it secret/disposing of all their bodies, it's a real feat to do it for under $30 million.

    4. Re:They're just doing it by Stanistani · · Score: 1

      >Our new goal is to "organize all the useful information in the universe and serve it to you on a lightly salted cracker."

      I'm in!

    5. Re:They're just doing it by R3d+M3rcury · · Score: 2, Insightful

      While this is a funny comment, it's not a horrible idea.

      First, you know the topology of the area, which I would imagine would be helpful in designing the rover and lander. You know you won't have to deal with going up big hills or anything like that.

      Second, and more mercurial, I'd imagine pictures and video of the Apollo 11 landing site would fetch a pretty penny. You could probably sell exclusive broadcast rights and such for a few extra million.

  8. moon.google.com by Blaze74 · · Score: 1

    You know that they are doing this so they can index all the space dust on the moon.

  9. Where's Cringely?!? by A+nonymous+Coward · · Score: 1
    1. Re:Where's Cringely?!? by dpilot · · Score: 1

      The "Southern California Selene Group" has the ring of what Cringely described. But I followed a few links to check it out and he's not mentioned, though it is possible that he's too minor a player to show at that level.

      --
      The living have better things to do than to continue hating the dead.
    2. Re:Where's Cringely?!? by rduke15 · · Score: 1
      It made me wonder too. The only name which appears in Cringely's column is Tomas Svitek, whose LinkedIn profile doesn't mention anything about the X-Prize.

      Also, the part in Cringely's column which talks about him seems to be a copy/paste job from an article about "Orbital Outfitters", a "new company to provide next generation space suits".

      This is the spacefellowship.com version from 2006:

      Beginning with a PhD from Caltech, he was a systems engineer on the NASA Mars Scout, Mars Surveyor, Mars Sample Return and various Discovery Missions. [...] He was the Principal Scientist for Orbital Sciences Corporation, Project Leader for the BlastOff Lunar Lander project with Jim Cameron and AeroAstro's miniature spacecraft project. He has managed and completed projects for NASA, the US Air Force Research Lab, Microcosm Incorporated, and SpaceX Corporation. Until recently, he held the position of lead engineer for Jeff Bezos' Blue Origins Crew Capsule.

      And this is Cringely's version one year later:

      Our Program Manager is Tomas Svitek, who has a PhD from Caltech, was a systems engineer at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory on the NASA Mars Scout, Mars Surveyor, Mars Sample Return and various Discovery Missions. He was the Principal Scientist for Orbital Sciences Corp., Project Leader for the BlastOff Lunar Lander project and AeroAstro's miniature spacecraft project. He has managed and completed projects for NASA, the U.S. Air Force Research Lab, Microcosm Inc., and SpaceX Corp.. He was lead engineer for Jeff Bezos' Blue Origins crew capsule and has long run his own space consulting company in California.

      This week, there is not a word about the X-Prize in his column. I have some doubts now, but hope that that project is still alive and was not just some thin air.
    3. Re:Where's Cringely?!? by CopaceticOpus · · Score: 1

      His team is called Team Cringely, so unless they changed the name they are not yet registered, Here's their wiki:

      http://www.teamcringely.org/wiki/index.php/Main_Page

      That's a lot of information for a web page, but not very much at all for a moon mission. Since they don't even have their act together to get registered, I wonder if they have already given up.

  10. Goal? by calebt3 · · Score: 1

    What is the desired end result of this competition? Developing methods that have a low cost-per-launch? Stimulating private space travel?

    1. Re:Goal? by Nyeerrmm · · Score: 4, Interesting

      I'd say its two-fold. To show the possibility of privately funded interplanetary exploration, and to support the development of low cost, space-capable robotics.

      I doubt that anyone will be trying to develop their own launch vehicle to do this, although a custom trans-lunar injection stage might be in the cards. One of the upcoming Falcon 1-extended versions may have the juice to get a small but capable rover to the lunar surface, bringing this reasonably within cost restrictions.

    2. Re:Goal? by moderatorrater · · Score: 2, Insightful

      Developing methods that have a low cost-per-launch? Stimulating private space travel? Yes. Can't have one without the other, really.
    3. Re:Goal? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Shits and giggles?

    4. Re:Goal? by Xandar01 · · Score: 1

      1) Build robot that can be remotely controlled via a website
      2) Get it to the moon (the ????)
      3) Profit

      --
      Life moves pretty fast; if you don't stop and look around once in a while, you could miss it. -FB
    5. Re:Goal? by Loke+the+Dog · · Score: 1

      For google, its probably publicity and goodwiil. Possibly a bit of profit by putting the pictures and stuff on the net. And because they hope it will be cool.

      For the competitors, prestige, experience, publicity.

  11. Where's the Armadillo? by Starvingboy · · Score: 1

    Where is Armadillo Aerospace? So far they're the only contenders to fly in the contest and they're not even on the list.

    1. Re:Where's the Armadillo? by Loke+the+Dog · · Score: 1

      Well, this is about sending a rover to the moon, armadillo is just building a lander, as far as I know. Not the same competition.

    2. Re:Where's the Armadillo? by Nyeerrmm · · Score: 1

      I think you're thinking of the NASA/Northrop-Grumman Lunar Lander Challenge. Looks like they will have some actual competition next year other than bad luck.

  12. Lunar Streetview by tonyreadsnews · · Score: 1

    I guess that's the next cool Google idea?

  13. maybe not by Quadraginta · · Score: 4, Insightful

    The X Prize and this competition differ from competitions early in the aviation era, to which they're routinely compared, in that they aren't for doing something no one's ever done before. Suborbital flight was achieved in the 1960s, both by NASA and by the Air Force with the X-15 program. Landing on the Moon and sending back photos was achieved by the Soviets and Americans in the mid 1960s.

    What presumably is the point to these new prizes is not the achievement per se, which merely duplicates something done forty years ago, but the goal of doing so much more cheaply, and with the ability to do it much more routinely. Those are reasonable goals: after all, the principal failure of the Space Shuttle is that it can't be launched nearly as often and easily as it was supposed to be. If it had eventually been able to fly 20 times a year to LEO on a routine basis, which was what was promised in the 80s, and which would've brought its per-flight cost down to an extremely modest $60-100 million, we would be now hailing its unqualified success.

    So I think the virtue of the X Prize was not its goal of suborbital flight per se, but the goal of suborbital flight with the same craft twice in a short period (a week, as I recall). Doing it rapidly is at least proof of concept evidence that you've found a way to do it cheaply and routinely. And I'm disappointed that this new competition doesn't seem to have that element. I'm not sure how it could. Maybe they would have been better off going for a similar X Prize competition for actual orbital flight, e.g. can you fly to orbit twice in the same week. That would be a real achievement.

    I fear, however, that $30m isn't nearly enough to cover the budget for a lunar mission

    It's a totally token amount. Merely launching a geostationary satellite on an Ariane 5 rocket costs over $100 million. Presumably if you compete seriously you're in it for the glory.

    1. Re:maybe not by OglinTatas · · Score: 1

      It's projected to be $35 for the lightest fare on a falcon9 and that is just to orbit. Still, the prize won't cover the fare.

    2. Re:maybe not by A+nonymous+Coward · · Score: 1

      Suborbital flight was achieved in the 1960s, both by NASA and by the Air Force with the X-15 program.

      Calling the X-15 (mach 7 or so, 4K mph) suborbital is really a stretch. A few of the pilots got astronaut wings from it, but that doesn't make it much more suborbital than SR-71 pilots. The Nazi WW II V-2 was more suborbital than the X-15, and that was 1942.

      You also ought to mention the Soviets, who were orbital before the US was suborbital.

    3. Re:maybe not by ianare · · Score: 1

      107 km up is much higher than what the sr-71 can reach (about 25km), or any air-breathing craft for that matter. BTW, the original X-prize was for an altitude of 100km.
      Maybe you are confusing speed with altitude. You could have orbital velocity at ground level, that wouldn't make the craft an orbiter. To reach orbit or sub-orbit may require a certain speed (physics and all that) but it's not the principal definition, the trajectory is.

    4. Re:maybe not by Quadraginta · · Score: 1

      No I don't think so. The X-15 reached an altitude of 67 miles, which is "suborbital" according to the X Prize criteria, and about as good as Scaled's SpaceShipOne achieved. The SR-71 never reached those altitudes, IIRC, although it set altitude records for horizontal flight (about 80,000 feet I believe). Since the SR-71 is air-breathing and the X-15 is not, this is not surprising.

      The V-2 doesn't qualify at all, because it didn't carry passengers.

      I probably should have mentioned the Soviets, except that I was talking about suborbital flight, which the Soviets didn't actually do, and more importantly I made no claim of exclusivity, that is, I didn't say only the USAF and NASA did it.

    5. Re:maybe not by Karrde45 · · Score: 1

      GEO Comm Satellites cost that much not because of their distance, but because they are massive. If you watch you mass and make a capable but very small rover, you will only need a fraction of the launch tonnage that a geosynchronous communications satellite would require, even accounting for a lunar transfer stage and a descent stage.

    6. Re:maybe not by A+nonymous+Coward · · Score: 1

      My point was that calling the X-15 suborbital is a real stretch. No one at Scaled or even the X-prize people has called their prize for suborbital flight, as I understand it, only to reach the 100 km limit which defines outer space and astronaut status. Maybe you are confusing altitude and horizontal speed.

      The V-2 qualifies for everything except the X prize. "Suborbital" certainly doesn't care whether it has passengers aboard. ICBMS are suborbital, far more than the X-15 or any X-prize contender.

    7. Re:maybe not by Quadraginta · · Score: 1

      I don't think so. The payload of the Ariane 5 is 15,000 pounds. If your argument were true, then you should be able to launch 1 pound into geostationary orbit for 1/15000 of the cost of an Ariane 5 launch, or about $6700. Obviously you can't.

      There's a basic cost to a launch that includes building a big thingy full of explosive fuel, maintaining a safe place to launch it, hiring all the trained people you need to oversee everything, filling in the government forms, paying for radar and radio operators and equipment to track it, and so on.

      Adding more capacity, provided you've thought that out in advance, doesn't seem to add much to this basic cost. That is, apparently, why modern EELVs seem to come in "modular" form where you can add or subtract booster stages to change the payload. Sure, it costs a little more to do that, but apparently lots less than a whole separate launch.

      For that reason any launch to orbit will cost at least $30-50 million, and the most expensive ride to orbit -- currently the Space Shuttle -- comes in at about $500 million. That is not all that large a range, and suggests launch costs are not totally dominated by the size of what's launched.

      That isn't too surprising. The major cost of transporting something by wheeled vehicle is building the vehicle, buying the gas and road, et cetera. If it's a big rig truck you're using, it doesn't cost that much more to add another trailer to it, certainly much less than hiring another truck.

    8. Re:maybe not by Karrde45 · · Score: 1

      Any launch to orbit will cost 30-50 million? I guess the Pegasus has been operating at a 10m+ loss per launch for the last two decades. There are fixed costs for developing a launch vehicle, but what I'm trying to say is that by being frugal with your rover mass, you can launch on low end vehicles for something in the 10-15 million range instead of needing a massive 40 million dollar rocket. It's all about delta-V and mass fractions.

    9. Re:maybe not by Quadraginta · · Score: 2, Informative

      Well, this sounds rather nitpicky. You can't define "suborbital" flight only in terms of velocity, either, or rocket sleds and railgun projectiles would qualify. Is it even interesting?

      I suggest the natural understanding of "suborbital" flight is flight which goes very high, pretty much out of the atmosphere, but which isn't up to orbital velocity. By that definition the X-15 qualifies, and so does SS1. The SR-71 does not, and as an air-breather is really in an entirely different category.

      Any IRBM or ICBM qualifies, including the V-2, of course, but since I was talking in the context of the X Prize, which specified manned flight, it's a very natural to exclude it. Manned orbital or suborbital flight is quite a different engineering challenge than unmanned flight.

      In any event, I think if we were to play a game of "one of these things doesn't belong" with the set {Freedom 7,X-15,SR-71} then the correct one to drop would be the SR-71.

    10. Re:maybe not by FleaPlus · · Score: 1

      For that reason any launch to orbit will cost at least $30-50 million, and the most expensive ride to orbit -- currently the Space Shuttle -- comes in at about $500 million. That is not all that large a range, and suggests launch costs are not totally dominated by the size of what's launched.

      Some folks have been speculating that it might be possible to use a $6 million SpaceX Falcon 1 to get 213kg of mass to the moon. Of course, you still have to worry about landing that mass and the rover itself, which may or may not be feasible. Another possibility is a $11 million Russian Dnepr rocket.

    11. Re:maybe not by Quadraginta · · Score: 1

      Hmmm, the Wikipedia article on the Pegasus XL says the typical launch cost is $30 million.

      $40 million doesn't buy you a "massive" rocket any more. You need to multiply by 2 to 4 just for something that can park a few tons in LEO or geostationary orbit. And even that doesn't really qualify as a "massive" rocket by, say, Saturn V standards.

      It's all about delta-V and mass fractions.

      I don't think so. That was part of the thinking behind the Space Shuttle, why it was designed as a combination heavy-lift vehicle and 10-passenger space plane. You'll note that the current thinking is to go to smaller vehicles with a more frequent launch, which I think is your suggested mode anyway. But that points away from focussing on the mass fraction, since a multi-stage massive vehicle is definitely more economical on fuel and mass than several smaller vehicles.

      In fact, what current trends suggest if anything is that it's vehicle complexity and reliability that matter more than anything, and being able to get a simple, robust vehicle off the ground repeatedly and on schedule, again and again, matter more than anything else in terms of keeping your per-launch costs down.

      I think there is no way you can achieve lunar orbit for $10 million. First, lunar injection requires way more velocity than LEO or geostationary, and, second, you need to transport a space-restartable engine and its fuel to the Moon so you can brake when you get there. Finally, we're talking about a one-shot deal, as far as I know, so you can't amortize your development costs over many flights and there's no off-the-shelf existing hardware or technology that will let you avoid those costs.

    12. Re:maybe not by Quadraginta · · Score: 1

      Boy I dunno. They're talking as if the cost of the vehicle for trans-lunar injection and lunar orbit insertion, not to mention the lunar descent vehicle, and the rover itself, are all minor pieces of the cost and can be funded from the loose change left over after you buy a Falcon.

      That seems unrealistic. When JPL designs and builds rovers for NASA, they typically spend $100 million or so. I mean, when you design something that has to do stuff while being incredibly tiny to save on launch weight, it ends up being expensive, not cheap.

      To be sure, they could cut a lot of corners NASA doesn't, but...then they might just end up like Beagle, i.e. having an expensive dud. There's a reason NASA specifies gold-plated everything on hardware that is a one-off design and can't be fixed if a small design oops means something goes wrong umpty million miles away.

      I'm not saying I don't think someone brilliant couldn't do it for, say, $50 million or so. But $10 million seems totally unlikely to me. I mean, not when people are having trouble just getting to LEO for $10 million. $50 million for soft landing even a tiny vehicle on the Moon would be an engineering triumph anyway.

    13. Re:maybe not by FleaPlus · · Score: 1

      Oh sure, I'm just addressing the question of whether or not the launch price itself would necessarily set a competitor's cost above the prize amount. I don't have the expertise to say whether or not a hypothetical 213kg is at all a realistic mass limit for a lander/rover. I did a little googling, and found that the Mars Pathfinder had a 264 kg lander and a 10.5 kg rover. To my naive mind it makes the limit seem at least quasi-realistic, although of course the Pathfinder had the benefit of the Martian atmosphere to use for braking.

    14. Re:maybe not by AJWM · · Score: 1

      In fact, what current trends suggest if anything is that it's vehicle complexity and reliability that matter more than anything, and being able to get a simple, robust vehicle off the ground repeatedly and on schedule, again and again, matter more than anything else in terms of keeping your per-launch costs down.

      What costs the money is the standing army you need for a launch crew (including vehicle assembly crew, etc). The propellants are cheap, and even the hardware isn't that expensive, especially if you can amortize the launch vehicle hardware cost over multiple launches. (Which, of course, you can't do with disposables.)

      So yes, design your LVs with adequate engineering margins that you don't have to test them up the wazoo before flight, in fact you can test by flying. Design them with recoverability built into the launch profile so that if something does go wrong, you just land the thing and fix it. Design them to land and be turned around withought having to be partially disassembled and completely overhauled. And design the support systems to only need a few people, not thousands.

      In other words, design the damn things to be transportation, like jets, not ammunition, like ICBMs.

      BTW, for the record, lunar injection actually requires less delta-vee than a geostationary orbit does. The apogee is higher for lunar injection, but you don't need to also raise the perigee 22,000 miles.

      --
      -- Alastair
    15. Re:maybe not by Quadraginta · · Score: 1

      D'oh! Of course. Thanks for the correction.

      On the main subject...if this were 1975 it would sound like you're arguing for the Space Shuttle. As it is...what are you arguing, e.g. for or against Constellation?

    16. Re:maybe not by AJWM · · Score: 1

      I'm not really impressed by Constellation, least of all by the Ares I configuration. Putting a hammerhead (known to cause dynamic instability problems) on top of a single stick solid booster (known to be somewhat uncontrollable once lit) seems to me to be asking for trouble. At least they've put a launch escape rocket on the thing.

      Personally I'd rather see something fully reusable, by which I don't mean crash'n'salvage like the SRBs. Ideally a VTOVL SSTO if they can do it (don't give me "physically impossible", because it's not; it is a difficult engineering problem though), otherwise two stage with recovery modes throughout the launch profile (like the original F-1 Flyback booster proposed for Shuttle -- or White Knight/Spaceship 1 scaled up to something orbital).

      On the other hand, Constellation makes a nice dinosaur farm to keep NASA and Big Aerospace out of the hair of people who are seriously trying to get the job done.

      --
      -- Alastair
    17. Re:maybe not by ultranova · · Score: 1

      Maybe you are confusing speed with altitude.

      No, but you're confusing orbit - a special state of being in freefall - with altitude.

      You could have orbital velocity at ground level, that wouldn't make the craft an orbiter.

      Yes, it would. It would make the entity which achieved that speed orbit the Earth, therefore making it an orbiter. Of course an orbit at ground level is not stable, due to air friction, but it is an orbit nonetheless.

      --

      Forget magic. Any technology distinguishable from divine power is insufficiently advanced.

    18. Re:maybe not by imipak · · Score: 1
      Unless the teams are allowed to buy COTS items like heavy launchers and/or to throw money at the existing space systems corporations to customise / extend their existing hardware, I just don't believe this will be possible. Personally I will be dumbstruck with astonishment and surprise that I've lost a number of bets (yes real cash bets) and will also have to go around telling people I was utterly wrong.

      Just for starters, what the hell will they use for comms? I can't see NASA renting out slots on the already massively over-subscribed and underfunded DSN. If a private group like the inflatable hotels nutte^w dreamer, or the Falcon crew, or Armadillo or whoever build their own ground station network around the globe, even if it only has enough range for lunar around the world for a radically low, breakthrough sum - say, less than $500 million - that'd be fantastic. NASA / JPL and the ESA would be queuing up to use it. And it's be a relatively small cost to bolt another 10m wide ring around their dishes and boosting the power and sensitivity enough for Mercury, Venus, Mars, the outer planets and all the other vehicles wandering around the sun on similar orbits, which would be an enormous help. The MER vehicles might even be able to clear their flash by uploading the huge backlog of "no time, uplink at later date" material for the first time. If the pared-down, but still hugely ambitious and exciting Mars Science Laboratory works well enough to get wheels on ice, that'll be another fat pipe of imagery and science data to cope with... there are a LOT of live vehicles out there right now and the tubes are getting pretty full. ('Course, I don't expect the private moon lander will be putting much strain on their system...)

  14. JFK would be pissed by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1, Insightful

    Back then we had a good chuck of our nation/economy solely dedicated to developing a space program, now we have nothing but bloat and underfunding.

    It really is piss poor what Bush has done to science. Bushs' vision of mars is nothing but a political tool to get temporary ratings approval in the polls. Fact is, his vision is severely underfunded, uninspired, and uneducated. Nasa has done some great things with the tools they have. But when you compare Bushs' failed war in iraq and afghanistan and the funds it took to fight them, compared to the Nasa budget it is pitiful.

    Imagine if we took that trillion dollar surplus and some real inspiration and dedicated 400 billion to the space program instead of way. A good president would cut out the bureaucracy (with still keeping quality assurance) and size down Nasa's management, and their space vehicles (last time i checked we are using 30+ year old shuttle technology, what exactly is going to happen again when the shuttle retires? There is no clear cut plan, also sad).

    1. Re:JFK would be pissed by Eternauta3k · · Score: 1

      what exactly is going to happen again when the shuttle retires? There is no clear cut plan, also sad Soyuz and Orion?
      --
      Yeah. Would you choose a neurosurgeon who pokes around people's brains in his spare time? I wouldn't.
    2. Re:JFK would be pissed by dogmatixpsych · · Score: 1

      "It really is piss poor what Bush has done to science." Funding of science increased under Pres. Bush. Scientists only criticize him because they didn't receive as much money as they wanted.

    3. Re:JFK would be pissed by quanticle · · Score: 1

      now we have nothing but bloat and underfunding.

      Bloat and underfunding? Aren't those two a contradiction in terms?

      It really is piss poor what Bush has done to science. Bushs' vision of mars is nothing but a political tool to get temporary ratings approval in the polls. Fact is, his vision is severely underfunded, uninspired, and uneducated.

      I dislike Bush as much as any other Democrat, but, to be brutally honest, every administration past LBJ has underfunded the space program. NASA has been suffering from decades of neglect, and its unfair to put all the blame on the current occupant.

      Imagine if we took that trillion dollar surplus and some real inspiration and dedicated 400 billion to the space program instead of way. A good president would cut out the bureaucracy (with still keeping quality assurance) and size down Nasa's management, and their space vehicles (last time i checked we are using 30+ year old shuttle technology, what exactly is going to happen again when the shuttle retires? There is no clear cut plan, also sad).

      Again, every administration since LBJ has promised to set up a vision for NASA and return to its Apollo-era glory days. And, predictably, NASA has fallen far down the priority list as other issues come up. Given the huge issues facing the country today (the two wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, Medicare, Social Security, climate change, etc.), why should anyone believe that there'll be any more attention paid to NASA by the next administration?

      --
      We all know what to do, but we don't know how to get re-elected once we have done it
  15. Hear that? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    It's the sound of things screeching to a halt.

    Building an extremely high altitude plane (which is what won the first prise) is one (impressive!) thing.

    Getting into and beyond Earth orbit is an entirely different and vastly more difficult ball game (not to mention the robotics work necessary). While a winner for this prize might eventually emerge, don't hold your breath.

  16. If NASA couldn't do it by KalvinB · · Score: 0, Flamebait

    how can we expect a bunch of amatures to do it?

    It's going to be a lot harder to fake this one.

  17. Time frame? by Orig_Club_Soda · · Score: 0

    Di didnt see a time frame in that article. How many years are we going to have to wait?

  18. Looks like... by ArAgost · · Score: 1

    ...the italians already won the competition for the most original team name. Forza ragazzi!

  19. This could be fun by Nosferatu+Alucard · · Score: 1
    A lot of people are saying it's going to be vastly expensive beyond the 30M. What did it cost NASA to do back in the day?

    My laptop probably has more computing power than that first mission did, so it can't be impossible to put a robot on the moon with today's hardware. I honestly think the only expensive part of the project will be the costs of fuel and contracting the production of various parts. This mission doesn't have to have the large amount of safety features the lunar mission did, since we aren't carrying people, just machines. If you didn't want to retrieve the equipment, you could build a rocket, launch it at the moon and jettison a landing pod when aligned. Obviously more complicated in practice than in concept, but it's actually less complicated than what we did in the space race.

    I welcome anyone who can prove otherwise, this is just my speculation.

    1. Re:This could be fun by Karrde45 · · Score: 1

      It cost NASA Billions for Apollo. Not sure how much Surveyor cost. While electronics have certainly dropped in price, propellants haven't. Reliability is a lot better than it used to be, but it's still an expensive business.

    2. Re:This could be fun by GameMaster · · Score: 1

      The problem is that, while raw computing power has grown exponentially since then, that doesn't mean that all of the many, advanced, technologies needed have followed suite. Things that rely on basic physics, like propulsion, may not have become that much more cost efficient. Anything that requires lots of space, equipment, etc. would still, most likely, be very expensive.

      Things that, off the top of my head, may still be on that list could be communication/tracking (large antenna arrays are expensive and still in the realm of government spending) and rugedization of equipment. People always wonder, and complain about, how the US military spends $500 a piece for things like soap dishes on advance aircraft but there is, very often, a very good reason for it. As the working environment the hardware has to endure gets progressively harsher, the price of that equipment goes up sharply. Space, is one of the harshest (if not the harshest) environment to have equipment operate in.

      A good example of this is all that high-speed computer equipment you referenced. While it's gotten faster, commercial grade equipment is still no more durable than the old stuff and may be even more susceptible to things like cold and radiation due to its increased complexity. The US government (and thus NASA) has had access to specially shielded electronics since early in the Cold War for surviving things like extreme cold and the electro-magnetic pulse from a nuclear weapon blast. This stuff wasn't cheap then and there's no reason to think it's especially cheap now (even if a private buyer can acquire it, which they may not be, legally, able to) because there has never been a reason to mass produce it even if the process isn't inherently more complex/expensive.

      Again, I can't say one way or the other whether these issues, or any other, will be a deal-breaker for amateurs entering the Lunar X-Prize but simply looking at how much time has passed and how far computing power has increased as justifications for this project being a cake-walk (compared to the effort NASA had to put into it) just doesn't seem realistic to me. One last thing to consider, is that even if the final cost of the project turned out to be massively smaller than what NASA spent in the 60s, that could still, easily, be more than the $30 million when you look at just how much NASA actually spent when adjusted for inflation.

      -GameMaster

      --

      Rules of Conduct:
      #1 - The DM is always right.
      #2 - If the DM is wrong, see rule #1
  20. That's no moon by zdude255 · · Score: 2, Insightful

    Is this the first step to building Google's moon base?

  21. Actually, these are about the same. by WindBourne · · Score: 1

    Both of them do not have the required infrastructure to make it happen TODAY. It will require in general low cost. But it will drive companies to compete and make this. From a posting that I did last night concerning this:
    Most no-one thinks the Google Lunar X-Prize will be won.. and that's just soft-landing a rover on the Moon by 2015.
    Hummmm. Everybody swore that America's space prize was un-winnable. And yet, I think that Musk will win it, with the remote possibility that several others could still do it. By the same token, I would be surprised to not see musk pursue the Lunar X-prize. The easy way is work with armadillo or perhaps blue origin. Why use one of those? Because they make a very nice lunar transporter.

    Bigelow has a great deal in mind. I know that you have seen what he is up to. He is wanting to land his systems straight down on the moon. Once it is there, he will need transport up and down for cargo and ppl, hence the reason that Musk/(carmack or bezos). Keep in mind that it is the prizes that is allowing Musk to make money. He was won cots (270M), shooting for American's space prize which is 50M, and will almost certainly land contracts with DOD, NASA, and Bigelow, in addition, to picking up more launches with other groups. If he can win the Lunar X-prize with a partner who can provide the lunar access, then he will have helped created the market that Bigelow (and others) want desperately.

    My prediction: Musk wins the American space prize, followed by Lunar X prize, and then bigelow is on the moon by 2016, and MAYBE, just maybe, even 2015. That is only 7-8 years away. Sounds like a lot, but the x-prize was won in 8 years ago and that was with ZERO infrastructure. Now, there is an up and coming infrastructure, with multiple prizes to lead the way.

    --
    I prefer the "u" in honour as it seems to be missing these days.
    1. Re:Actually, these are about the same. by FleaPlus · · Score: 1

      Hummmm. Everybody swore that America's space prize was un-winnable. And yet, I think that Musk will win it, with the remote possibility that several others could still do it.

      I'm sure Musk's Dragon has the technical capability to win the prize, but I think they might not qualify due to the government funding SpaceX has received from NASA COTS. Of course, regardless of the prize, I'm sure Musk is eying Bigelow's private space stations as a large potential market for his spacecraft.

      My prediction: Musk wins the American space prize, followed by Lunar X prize

      I don't think Musk is planning on competing in the Lunar X Prize directly, however SpaceX has stated that they'll essentially offer a 10% launch price reduction to competitors. $30 million seems a little small for Musk to care about in and of itself, and it would make more business sense to establish itself as a launch service provider to whatever teams want to compete, rather than choose a particular team to favor.

    2. Re:Actually, these are about the same. by WindBourne · · Score: 1

      Keep in mind that this is not about winning the millions. It is about winning the prestige. After all, We all know scaled composites won the the X prize. Who else competed? But in this case, I think that musk will team up just to try and make a serviceable flight stack to the moon. That is where the money is IFF bigelow is going there.

      --
      I prefer the "u" in honour as it seems to be missing these days.
    3. Re:Actually, these are about the same. by FleaPlus · · Score: 1

      Keep in mind that this is not about winning the millions. It is about winning the prestige.

      Sure, but it seems that there's almost as much prestige (especially to potential customers) in being the launcher of for the winning team, without the risk of accidentally picking the wrong horse. Also, I'm not sure how much SpaceX's expertise actually gets them with regards to the lander/rover...

      But in this case, I think that musk will team up just to try and make a serviceable flight stack to the moon.

      That's possible, although it seems more likely to me that they'd just team up with whoever the winner is after the fact. Of course, if it looks like there probably won't be a winner -period- unless SpaceX throws their financial weight in, then I could see them participating more directly.

  22. No, the biggest cost is always lawyers etc by Crazy+Taco · · Score: 1

    I honestly think the only expensive part of the project will be the costs of fuel and contracting the production of various parts.

    Wrong. In the 60's hardware/development was the big cost, but these days it is ALWAYS insurance and covering your legal butt. That will be the biggest cost, guaranteed. If you rocket screws up and hits a metro area, well, you have to have a pretty big policy to cover that. And some good defense lawyers.

    --
    Beware of bugs in the above code; I have only proved it correct, not tried it.
  23. Join the GLXP teams by the_kanzure · · Score: 3, Interesting

    Team FREDNET, Team Cringely, and Interplanetary Ventures are all friendly groups of people to look into. Cringely has a wiki up for his project, and FREDNET has a rover going, and Interplanetary Ventures has facebook presence. I did a link dump a few days ago, so go check out all of the teams -- they need contributors, even web programmers willing to bootstrap the communities.