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Clinton Takes Ohio, Texas; McCain Seals The Deal
You can read it pretty much anywhere, but Clinton took Ohio and Texas meaning that the democratic primaries are far from over. Unlike the Dems, McCain has locked his nomination for the Republicans by breaking the 1,191 delegates necessary. So there it is. Talk amongst yourselves.
Umm, did you all forget that Ron Paul is still running in the race as Republican?? McCain has sealed nothing yet..
Oday ouyay antway otay ayplay away amegay?
the good news is that in Pennsylvania they have a closed primary. Only Democrats can vote for other Democrats. Unfortunately in Texas and Ohio, they had open primaries. I'm hoping the media will pick up on these stories because it's important that people understand what's going on.
Not in Texas and Ohio, hence OPEN PRIMARIES.
Carry on.
In the foot...
Obama leads in actual vote overall by 600,000. After all is said and done last night Obama leads by about 150 Delegates.
Before last night, Obama lead by more than 160 Delegates, and 1000 delegates where left to picked, about a third were picked last night. Clinton picked up about 10 possibly 15. Clinton needs =/- 150 delegates from the remaining =/- 660 delelgates available. Obama would need to be kept to about 200 for HRC to win. Meaning she would need, on average, to win roughly 70% of the vote. Although it is not a statistical absolute, I cannot imagine Obama to start getting 30%.
The race is over, Obama has won, except for the ugly fighting that is about to come. Im sure you can see what kind of tactics are about to be launched.
Both sides are fascism. As Ron Paul said : "We're not moving toward Hitler-type fascism, but we're moving toward a softer fascism: Loss of civil liberties, corporations running the show, big government in bed with big business. So you have the military-industrial complex, you have the medical-industrial complex, you have the financial industry, you have the communications industry. They go to Washington and spend hundreds of millions of dollars."
Ralph Nader put it best: Republicans and Democrats are competing to serve their corporate masters.
Nothing great was ever achieved without enthusiasm
The US spends more than twice as much per capita on healthcare than the UK.
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/3/4/162042/3056/80/468751
This assumes that Hillary somehow magically wins by 10% in every race. Which is NOT going to happen unless Barack gets caught with a dead girl or live boy. After today, there are 10 states left, plus Guam and Puerto Rico.
Number of 3 delegate districts left: 1
Number of 4 delegate districts left: 19 (including all 8 in Puerto Rico)
Number of 5 delegate districts left: 21
Number of 6 delegate districts left: 14
Number of 7 delegate districts left: 10
Number of 8 delegate districts left: 1
Number of 9 delegate districts left: 3
Number of 10 delegate districts left: 1 (Montana)
Setting aside Guam with its 4 delegates, there are 11 delegate apportionments based on statewide popular vote totals.
Wyoming - 5 statewide
South Dakota - 6 statewide
Montana - 6 statewide
West Virginia - 10 statewide
Mississippi - 11 statewide
Kentucky - 17 statewide
Oregon - 18 statewide
Puerto Rico - 19 islandwide
Indiana - 25 statewide
North Carolina - 38 statewide
Pennsylvania - 55 statewide
In order to cross all thresholds except the initial break that give you a +2 delegate swing, you need to win by an extra 200/X%, where X = the number of total delegates at stake. Let's see how this works by easy example - West Virginia and its 10 statewide delegates. 200/10 = 20%. To go from 5-5 to 6-4 there you have to win by over 10% (55-45). But to get ANOTHER +2 you need to add 20% to your win and win by 30% (65-35).
To work through one more example, Indiana and its 25. You start with someone winning 13-12. To get an additional +2 swing (ie, 14-11), you have to win by 200/25%, or 8% even. 54-46 + 1 vote is a 14-11 split. You can also calculate this way: 13.5/25 =
So, let's look at if Clinton wins every statewide total by 10%:
Wyoming +1
South Dakota 0
Montana 0
West Virginia +1, giving her the +1 vote benefit of the doubt.
Mississippi +1
Kentucky +1
Oregon +2
Puerto Rico +1
Indiana +3
North Carolina +4
Pennsylvania +5
Total +19 delegates.
Do you see how totally impossible it is, and how completely significant Obama's South Carolina and February blowouts were? Remember, Obama beat Clinton by 8% in Iowa (a huge win) and netted only 1 extra pledged delegate.
Now, let's assume, in a very unsurgical way, that this 10% is exactly the margin in all the congressional districts.
1 3-delegate district: +1
19 4-delegate districts: 0
21 5-delegate districts: +21
14 6-delegate districts: 0
10 7-delegate districts: +10
1 8-delegate district: 0
3 9-delegate districts: +3
1 10-delegate district: +1, let's give her the 1 extra vote benefit of the doubt.
Total +36 delegates
Overall total +55 delegates.
And it probably is +58, see below.
Obama currently leads by 160 pledged delegates.
I wish there was a fscking blue pill
Obama is going to win the caucuses and close up some of the gap in Texas delegates. Maybe all of the gap. And he's still significantly ahead in delegates when you take out the super-delegates. In fact, if the Dems didn't have the super delegates He would have a fool-proof delegate count by now.
A blog about stuff.
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/state/#TX
My posts are definitive. Reality is frequently inaccurate.
Where I work I've spoken to 6 different dedicated Republicans who said they also voted for Clinton on the Democrate side. They all agreed that they did so for no other reason than that they'd rather face her than Obama in the general election.
I usually vote Republican but after the last 8 years under GWB (I confess that I voted for him the first time. Who knew he was going to turn into "Big Bubba" on us?) I am so disappointed in the right that I'm actively searching for a Democrat to support. I like Obama and I'm voting for him in the general election if he gets the nomination. If he doesn't I'm going to go ahead and throw my vote behind McCain. I know several people who feel the same way I do, in particular my wife. She's a lifetime Democrat but she swears that if Hillary gets the nomination she's voting for McCain.
I can't believe the Democrats will be stupid enough to run Hillary. She's the one candidate that the Republicans will pull together to keep out of the White House. Obama's pulling in Independents and liberal minded Republicans (yes, we exist). Hillary will send us all into McCain's camp.
Appended to the end of comments you post. 120 chars.
As an outsider, the Clinton administration looked successful so I'm not sure why anyone would hate on it. Certainly Clinton had his faults (e.g. the sex scandal) but he was smart, articulate, managed the country well, didn't start any major wars, was well respected internationally and left the country in better shape than he found it. The Bush administration on the other hand was and still is a total disaster.
Oh yeah... this is the first Convention since superdelegates were added (in 1968) where they probably will play a significant role in the matter. It also might be the first brokered nomination since 1952, which resulted in Adlai Stevenson getting the Democratic nomination, and you can see how well that went for him....
I'm betting that there are some Democratic party leaders who really wish Obama had won Texas and Ohio yesterday, just so they wouldn't have had to deal with the possibility of the scenario you lay out.
Mr. Hu is not a ninja.
Set your phasers on "funky"!
Have you actually listened to any of his speeches, or just seen 5-second clips on the evening news? Both speeches I've seen in person have been very heavy on substance, and not just empty rhetoric. It does seem to be a common misconception, perpetrated by the clinton campaign, that he doesn't actually address issues, but it's just flat-out not true. Don't just parrot what you hear, do a little of your own research.
You're using the conservative-talking-head definition of "liberal", son.
IMO it's because libertarians are in general socially liberal, and so is the average Democrat voter, while your average Republican is socially conservative/authoritarian. Libertarians know that neither large party is going to curtail spending, so it's a case of holding one's nose and going with... yes... the lesser of two evils.
Hail Eris, full of mischief...
E pluribus sanguinem
Unles she wins it by a 99-to-1 margin, no, she won't get the nomination. In fact, unless she gets 72-25 wins in every single primary left, she won`t get the nomination. That is, assuming Obama's super-delegates aren't bought out by Clintonites.
I never spellcheck and I freely admit it. Save your karma for more worthwhile "lol erorrs" replies
I don't need a "firsthand account" from anyone to know what happened in the Texas primary last night...Obama won
Hillary won the popular vote, yes, but as we all know from the 2000 election, the popular vote doesn't matter in the end. IT'S ALL ABOUT THE DELEGATES, and Obama has won the majority of Texas delegates, when the caucus is figured into the equation.
Let me repeat, Obama won the majority of delegates from Texas, therefore, in all the ways that matter, HE WON TEXAS.
The newsmedia gave Hillary the 'victory' checkmark for Texas b/c it makes a better 'story' and allows them to tie everything up in a nice bow before it gets too late into the evening. I don't want to hear any more bitching about a pro-Obama bias from the media.
Thank you Dave Raggett
And if in Pennsylvania, you want to register to vote, or you want to change your party to democrat (I just changed mine from non-partisan), you have until March 24th to do it. You can do it at this website: https://www.pavoterservices.state.pa.us/Pages/VoterRegistrationApplication.aspx.
Note, after you fill out the form, you have to print out the PDF they give you, sign it, and fax it to the appropriate county voter registration office. The form is pre-populated with your values, and includes a barcode to help them process it faster.
Again, your registration has to be processed by March 24, so do not delay, fill out, print, and sign it today so that you don't get caught in a backlog and miss your chance to shape the future of our country!!
Slay a dragon... over lunch!
In Ohio, Hillary "trounced" Obama in the rural areas which are predominately white and conservative
Southern Ohio is a hotbed of racist sentiment. It's really rather infuriating at times.
I could also go on about how foolish it is for the general populace in this area to be so conservative because it only hurts them economically and in other ways, but there's really no point...
Everything I need to know I learned by killing smart people and eating their brains.
Here's some stats from 2003 about per capita spending on health care by nation. If anything, the gap has only widened in those past five years too.