Former Crypto-Analyst Analyzes the Danger of Nuclear Weapon Stockpiles

An anonymous reader writes "IEEE Spectrum reports that noted encryption pioneer Prof. Martin Hellman has a new passion; estimating the risk of our current nuclear weapons policies. His web site, Defusing the Nuclear Threat, asks the question, 'How risky are nuclear weapons? Amazingly, no one seems to know.' Hellman therefore did a preliminary analysis and found the risk to be 'equivalent to having your home surrounded by thousands of nuclear power plants.' The web site and a related statement therefore urgently call for more detailed studies to either confirm or correct his startling conclusion. The statement has been signed by seven notable individuals including former NSA Director Adm. Bobby R. Inman and two Nobel Laureates."

Comments

Thousands of nuclear plants...

[Anonymous Coward]

...which are managed by a monkey and operated by people with a god complex.

Re:misleading summary

[QuantumG]

The only ones I can remember are that a US president was told (during the cold war) that scenarios predicted 300 million american death *at best* in a *winned* nuclear war against Russia. That'd be a neat trick.

United States -- Population: 301,139,947 (July 2007 est.)

thousands of nuclear plants

[Peter La Casse]

'How risky are nuclear weapons? Amazingly, no one seems to know.' Hellman therefore did a preliminary analysis and found the risk to be 'equivalent to having your home surrounded by thousands of nuclear power plants'

That's reassuring, because it seems unlikely that my home will ever be surrounded by thousands of nuclear power plants.

The new Library of Congress-like unit for danger

[4D6963]

and found the risk to be 'equivalent to having your home surrounded by thousands of nuclear power plants.'

So if one of these nuclear power plants exploded (that's the risk being talked about here?), how large would the crater be, expressed in Libraries of Congress? Also, how likely would such an event be, expressed in chances of successfully dropping a penny from the top of the Empire State Building into someone's pocket?

Re:"Thousands of nuclear plants"?

[The_Wilschon]

Just be glad they aren't NUCLEAR oil refineries!

Re:And he is qualified how?

[AaxelB]

Well, since he's a well-known crypto-analyst, my guess is that he's incredibly paranoid and vastly overestimates any chance of catastrophe. So... I guess that makes him qualified to make scaremongrish claims, in a strange way.

Oh no!

[danwesnor]

Hellman therefore did a preliminary analysis and found the risk to be 'equivalent to having your home surrounded by thousands of nuclear power plants.'

I can't think of one plausible reason why all the nuclear power plants in the world would come down here and surround my house. I doubt if I have anything they want, and wouldn't even know what to offer them. Do you suppose they drink sweet tea?

Re:Oh no!

[mspohr]

I think Heisenberg could explain it.

Re:misleading summary

[JosKarith]

Well, if you're going to go around nuking volcanos you may as well fill them with alien dissidents and criminals first...