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Falling Microsoft Income Endangers Yahoo Bid

Dionysius, God of Wine and Leaf, points out a new wrinkle to Microsoft's pursuit of Yahoo. The most recent quarterly results, which saw Microsoft's earnings drop by 6% from the previous year (revenue from Windows alone was down 24%), have caused the stock to dip. This has reduced the value of the cash-and-stock offer from its original $44B to something nearer $40B. Yahoo, of course, has maintained all along that the original offer was lowball. A business professor is quoted: "Whatever leverage [Microsoft] built up in the last few days could be slipping away."

32 of 195 comments (clear)

  1. Clearly caused by H-1b limits by Baldrson · · Score: 4, Funny
    It's clear that if Bill Gates could just get the H-1b caps lifted, the best and brightest from around the world could come to the US and be paid $100k straight out of college to save Microsoft.

    Anyone who was around during the dot-com era remembers how it was H-1b limits that caused the crash of that wonderful era. Those who do not learn from history are doomed to repeat it.

    1. Re:Clearly caused by H-1b limits by pubjames · · Score: 5, Insightful

      Yes, but $100k is now worth relatively little in proper money.

      I was going to make a joke about this but actually its not funny.

    2. Re:Clearly caused by H-1b limits by anandsr · · Score: 2, Informative

      Actually it will be very easy to reduce the demand of H1-B visas. Just stop them from being slave laborers to the companies importing them. This can be done by just allowing them to switch jobs, and allowing them to apply for Green Cards without sponsorship.

      Currently the companies hold the H1-B visa holders by a tight leash because they can't switch jobs once Green card is applied. Also they can't switch jobs in the early years.

      If both these restrictions are removed, companies will not be able to afford to pay their employees less than the fair market value. And then the local people will be able to compete more easily. Companies will not be able to use H1-Bs as a source of cheap employment.

      So ask your senators to remove restrictions that cause H1-Bs to be looked as second class employees. Let them be treated at the level they merit, and you will not lose out on jobs.

    3. Re:Clearly caused by H-1b limits by jkrise · · Score: 2, Insightful

      It is absurd to suggest that (a lack of) engineers caused Microsoft's downfall. The more engineers and managers it threw at Vista; the worse the end product. Marketing and (poor) management will be the downfall of Microsoft; not engineers or programmers; H1B or otherwise.

      --
      If you keep throwing chairs, one day you'll break windows....
    4. Re:Clearly caused by H-1b limits by CastrTroy · · Score: 2

      $100,000 US is still quite a bit of money. Expecially if you are talking about yearly gross income. I don't think you realize just how little money some people can live off, even in the United States. $100,000 should be more than enough to support a family. If it's not, you aren't spending your money correctly. If you aren't supporting a family, then you should be even better off with all that money.

      --

      Anthropic principle: We see the universe the way it is because if it were different we would not be here to see it.
    5. Re:Clearly caused by H-1b limits by maxume · · Score: 2

      Compare the dollar and euro salaries for jobs. The numbers make more sense now than they used to(i.e., people making 60,000 dollars do about the same work and have about the same buying power as people making 40,000 euros).

      --
      Nerd rage is the funniest rage.
  2. Its a beautiful day after all! by Dana+W · · Score: 3, Funny

    Lets all say that together, shall we? "Falling Microsoft Income" Beautiful........... Do I get two more wishes?

    1. Re:Its a beautiful day after all! by cheater512 · · Score: 2, Insightful

      What more could you wish for? :P

    2. Re:Its a beautiful day after all! by Hillgiant · · Score: 2, Insightful

      Ummmm, ew?

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      -
  3. wrong wrong wrong* by thermian · · Score: 5, Insightful

    It was the absurd level of investment which saw things like startups being valued higher than HP, Xerox, and if I remember rightly, the Ford Motor company, that caused that.

    Venture capitalists poured billions into the industry without considering that the market had yet to produce the great new age of commerce that was promised.

    Startups without a coherent product were valued as multiple million dollar companies, and attracted investment like dead dogs attract flies.

    And all this at a time when I believe broadband wasn't even widely deployed.

    It was a bust waiting to happen. It's just a shame that so many viable companies were taken down in the crash.

    --
    A learning experience is one of those things that say, 'You know that thing you just did? Don't do that.' - D. Adams
    1. Re:wrong wrong wrong* by lightversusdark · · Score: 5, Informative

      Whoosh!

      And don't try the old asterisk in the subject line trick - we can see you're not a subscriber!

      --
      "There is nothing nice about Steve Jobs and nothing evil about Bill Gates." - Chuck Peddle
  4. The Offer is NOT LOWBALL by SerpentMage · · Score: 4, Insightful

    If you think that Yahoo which is trading over 40 to 50 PE as lowball well then YAHOO is crazy.

    Look at the earnings growth of Yahoo for the past five years. IT IS pitiful. Yahoo is being too arrogant for its own good.

    Personally, I think Microsoft should just walk away. Watch that Yahoo stock drop faster than gravity.

    --

    "You can't make a race horse of a pig"
    "No," said Samuel, "but you can make very fast pig"
    1. Re:The Offer is NOT LOWBALL by Solandri · · Score: 3, Interesting

      If you think that Yahoo which is trading over 40 to 50 PE as lowball well then YAHOO is crazy.

      Look at the earnings growth of Yahoo for the past five years. IT IS pitiful. Yahoo is being too arrogant for its own good.

      Over 5 years, Yahoo stock has outperformed Microsoft stock. If a Yahoo stockholder were basing his decision solely on the 5-year history, he would have to be crazy to want to trade his Yahoo shares for Microsoft shares.

      Yahoo has only run into problems during the last 2 years, which is kinda short to declare the company dead. And their current P/E (with a price based on Microsoft's offer) is 35, which seems about average for most tech stocks. The day prior to Microsoft's bid, YHOO had dropped so low I was considering picking some up. I'm still kicking myself for putting off the research for a day so I could watch a movie.

  5. Re:Downward spiral? by Bert64 · · Score: 3, Insightful

    Software can compete on microsoft's platform, if microsoft is not trying to compete with that software. Just you try producing a word processor for windows, you will waste thousands of man hours reverse engineering proprietary microsoft formats, instead of improving your product. And even if you do spend the time and effort to produce a product that is both superior and compatible, you will face a serious uphill battle trying to get anyone to use it.

    If we had a truly open single platform, progress and innovation would have been a lot faster.
    It was always inevitable that a more open platform would take over from the myriad of incompatible systems that were available years ago, unfortunately it was only the hardware that was open, or at least competitive, while software became more locked in than ever.

    Microsoft have stifled the evolution of the open IBM compatible platform, not helped it. They stalled the transition to 32bit, and are doing the same with the transition to 64. They delayed other valuable technologies like USB and SATA by being way behind everyone else in supporting them. And they are keeping people stuck on the crufty legacy bios, because of their unwillingness to support EFI, or anything else that would be newer and better. How many other good technologies have been delayed or killed completely, simply because microsoft couldnt be bothered to support them, or supported them in such a half assed way as to make people falsely perceive them as useless.

    They (along with other closed source vendors) are also stopping people moving to other superior architectures (some of which are more open than x86, but less widely supported because they wont run windows).

    --
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  6. Re:dumb, ill-informed sarcasm by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Insightful

    What a complete load of bull plop!

    The reason they want the cap lifted is becuase the people being brought in from abroad are cheap pure and simple!

    BY the way I'm live in the UK and so therefore have no agenda.

    This rubbish about it stopping PHD's etc is crap. By the way if they are being bought in to fill postitons in the US, why do they need to create start ups??

    Its a ruse,the high tech companies do not want to pay a decent living wage to americans, when they can hire and fire foreginers, who will also be less uppetity knowing that their green card depends upon them being employed with that company!

  7. Re:Downward spiral? by Jesrad · · Score: 5, Funny

    It is the falling revenue that hubris is set in motion. It is by the gook of management that self-destruction acquires speed, the product line acquires bloatware, the bloatware becomes a warning. IT is by falling revenue alone that hubris is set in motion.

    --
    Maybe we deserve this world ?
  8. Re:Downward spiral? by miffo.swe · · Score: 2, Insightful

    "Might I remind you that a lot of the reason computers have been able to advance as quickly as they have is because we have a single majority platform."

    Thats the worst load of crap ever uttered in this industry. Most things on the hardware side has been hold back because of Microsofts unwillingness to support new technologies.

    If you take your time and compare what was on the market when Microsoft started dominating the x86 platform you will find that first Dos then Windows was long behind the competition. They have always been lagging behind the competition, since day one.

    Their saviour was that IBM released their platform into the open because of their problems with the DOJ (ironic isnt it?). They got a hold of a platform that took off like a rocket because of it being open and managed to lock down the software side of it. Had IBM held onto x86 Microsoft as we know it would still be making stoplight-software.

    I think our software snails along and its development is painfully slow if you look at what happens in labs around the world. Microsoft is just now implementing things in Windows that has been standard in Unix since late 60's. If you think thats fast meet my lawn, enjoy watching it grow!

    --
    HTTP/1.1 400
  9. Re:At least I'll have my... by pandrijeczko · · Score: 3, Funny
    Shouldn't that be a 640Kb memory stick? Because you'll never need more than 640Kb.

    Besides which, I cannot agree with your statement one bit - Microsoft makes damn good mice and joysticks!

    --
    Gentoo Linux - another day, another USE flag.
  10. ummmm by oliverthered · · Score: 2, Insightful

    When I was a lad companies used to do something called training to get their employees up to scratch, Why can't Microsoft/ Yahoo/ IBM do this?

    --
    thank God the internet isn't a human right.
    1. Re:ummmm by timmarhy · · Score: 3, Insightful
      They do, grants and on the job training.

      this might shock you so hold on to your strawberry daiquiri, it takes years to get enough experience to even start training at the level MS needs to hire people to stay competitive.

      --
      If you mod me down, I will become more powerful than you can imagine....
    2. Re:ummmm by rtb61 · · Score: 2, Interesting
      M$'s failing is not a lack of coders or Ph.Ds it is management incompetence. Very poor business decisions and, a total disconnect from their customers. Hiring more people just means blowing more money on failed products, or just being able to produce even more bad code.

      M$ failings have nothing to do with a lack of technical staff but everything to do with the Vista (P)OS, the user interface failing on Office 2007, the Zune edsel music device, pathetic xbox360 failure rates and, the failed re-branding of MSN to Live.

      Basically at this stage they should not be hiring more but less. Not focusing on new OS's but on killing the failed Vista (P)OS and refining stale piss, all with more cost efficient staffing levels, that and diversifying into other technology areas. To achieve this, the first required step is to dump a tired and failed executive team who are looked into the same marketing B$ they were using a decade ago and which now is an embarrassing failure. Vista, a failure, but that OK it's only 'a work in progress', or going cap in hand to News Corp to beg for assistance in the Yahoo takeover, what a buffoon.

      --
      Chaos - everything, everywhere, everywhen
  11. Windows revenue dropped 24% ??!?!!! by jkrise · · Score: 2

    Colour me surprised, I thought with customers buying Vista AND XP; Windows revenue should've gone up actually. Even in Vista, the numerous versions out there seem specifically designed to confuse, and increase revenues.

    24% decline in revenues could mean that people are either:

    1. Pirating Windows XP very easily or
    2. Corporate customers buying PCs with no OS, and installing Corporate licensed XP or
    3. People switching over to Macs and Linux.

    I think it could be a bit of all the above. In 3 years time, if Microsoft does not release a really good successor to Vista, it could be Curtains for Windows! (TM). Will it happen?

    --
    If you keep throwing chairs, one day you'll break windows....
    1. Re:Windows revenue dropped 24% ??!?!!! by iamthelaw · · Score: 2, Informative

      No drop. It's an illusion. This quarter last year MS recognized revenue from upgrade sales of Vista that had not yet been realized. The amount of growth was normal and expected; MS met earnings expectations which accounted for the difference.

    2. Re:Windows revenue dropped 24% ??!?!!! by Zigurd · · Score: 3, Insightful

      This is the first indication of Microsoft actually feeling a bit of pain due to Vista.

      Microsoft could afford to misspend the money it took to develop Vista. But Microsoft cannot afford to allow Windows share in the installed base to erode 10 points from the current level. Apple has already taken advantage of that opening, and Linux, mainly Ubuntu, is growing even faster, though from a such a tiny base that the statistics are iffy.

      How bad would a 10% decline be? It would leave Microsoft with 80% of all personal computers that access Web sites. That doesn't seem irreversible. But it is worse than it looks for two reasons:

      1. That 10% contains a large number of opinion leaders.

      2. The momentum would be hard to reverse.

      If a 10% decline happens in the next 18 months, before Microsoft has a response, then Microsoft will be in serious trouble.

      3 years is far too long for Microsoft not to have a response. Well within 3 years we will know if we have a long-term competitive environment for personal computer OSs, possibly with new entrants other than Mac OS X and Linux.

  12. Re:dumb, ill-informed sarcasm by Simon+Brooke · · Score: 2, Funny

    Why do you have to drag this bullshit sarcasm into this discussion? [scythe] So, stop that stupid sarcasm and get some of the facts, OK?

    Because, outside the US of A, there are still some people who understand humour. Inside the US of A, of course, you can't even spell it.

    --
    I'm old enough to remember when discussions on Slashdot were well informed.
  13. Re:Downward spiral? by miffo.swe · · Score: 2, Informative

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Traf-O-Data

    Maybe we should thank heavens that Microsoft went towards the PC world?

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    HTTP/1.1 400
  14. Re:dumb, ill-informed sarcasm by Just+because+I'm+an · · Score: 2

    If we're going to use such broad brushstrokes then you have to admit it's pretty funny to have someone who is (or at least appears to be) from the USA label other nationalities arrogant.

  15. Re:At least I'll have my... by cp.tar · · Score: 2, Interesting

    Besides which, I cannot agree with your statement one bit - Microsoft makes damn good mice and joysticks!

    Microsoft used to make damn good mice and keyboards. I don't know about joysticks.
    However, the new Microsoft mice and keyboards that I've tried out are not that good, really.

    --
    Ignore this signature. By order.
  16. I really wouldn't worry.. by encoderer · · Score: 2, Interesting

    Currencies are SUPPOSED to fluctuate. It's healthy. Like a forest fire. Recessions, too, for that matter.

    The weak companies can burn to the ground to un-clutter their marketspace and allow healthy, new companies to grow in their wake.

    The strong dollar led to rampant outsourcing in the late 90's/early 00's.

    The US was an expensive place to do business.

    As the dollar weakens, the US becomes more and more attractive for foreign investment. European companies (like Volkswagen, for example) see a supremely talented labor force with an exchange rate that's to die for. And we have indeed begun to see in-sourcing.

    As this happens, the US economy gradually strengthens, the currency rebounds to the point where the country is no longer attracting foreign investment. Outsourcing begins to look more attractive for American companies. Etc. The pendulum swings again.

    The sky is not falling. It's just that the tide is turning. It'll come back in again shortly.

    1. Re:I really wouldn't worry.. by pubjames · · Score: 2

      It's not healthy. Healthy is a strong, stable economy with a strong, stable currency. The dollar is dropping like a stone. This has lots of negative consequences, which far out-way the benefits.

      The fact that European companies find it cheaper to employ people in the USA than other countries is not a good thing. The ability to outsource to other countries where labour is cheaper is a sign of economic strength, not weakness.

    2. Re:I really wouldn't worry.. by encoderer · · Score: 2, Interesting

      Economies and currencies are not static. Never have been, never will, and never SHOULD be.

      Sure, as a currency reaches the extremes (both high and low) of its value, some people are hurt by that economically speaking.

      But that's the point of a personal and social safety net.

      I mean, the notion that a currency should be static just makes no sense whatsoever. A currency is essentially a "score" of the performance of a given economy. When an economy is strong, when growth prospects are strong, the currency is strong. This is because people are buying Dollars as it appears that they will increase in value.

      If economies were static, currencies would be, too.

      I tried to write an exmaple, but it's so inane that it's a waste of our time. There are about a trillion reasons why economies are not static. Changes in technology, demographics, natural disaster, man-made disaster, resources, etc.

      This is going to be a rough patch for our economy. For most, the answer is that you should curtail spending NOW and give yourself some cushion. For some, it will mean outright financial ruin. That is unfortunate. But also, unavoidable.

      * The Yuan is technically pegged to a "basket" of currencies but it's remained relatively inline with the Chinese-desired 8.2765:1 ratio for an awful long time.

  17. Re:Revenue from Windows down? by VertigoAce · · Score: 2, Informative

    In November & December 2006, we deferred $1.67 billion in revenue for Windows Vista and Office 2007 into the 3rd quarter. This makes it hard to compare 2nd & 3rd quarters year over year, unless you look at it with the revenue moved back to the 2nd quarter. Once you take this into account, the results for this quarter were roughly what you would expect.