Are We Headed for a Virtual Winter?

Elixir creator and digital avatar evangelist, Bruce Damer, believes that a downturn in Virtual Worlds may be leading to a "winter" in the near future. "Is the coming of several new VW platforms going to balkanize a limited usership or grow the user base? In looking at broader scope of user interactivity demographics, will the move of more people to do their primary computing on mobile platforms reduce the number of people using VWs on big screens or put a cap on the growth of the VW market? Is the fact that there are now so many options for real-time representation of people online (Skype, Twitter, etc) means that VWs are always going to struggle for visibility? Is interaction in a VW that much more enriching and valuable than the simpler modalities available in other platforms? Will VWs ever really go mainstream? I continuously hear complaints about VWs not being worth the trouble, especially from people much younger and hipper than me (I am 46) who prefer much lighter weight forms of interaction. What does this portend?"

Comments

Integrate VW with RW?

[2nd Post!]

Why shouldn't WoW or SL be able to integrate directly with Skype, AIM, email, Facebook, MySpace, or Twitter?

It's probably the next step of increasing MMO/VW usage.

Re:Integrate VW with RW?

[holmedog]

alt + tab works just fine for integrating them for me...

Re:Integrate VW with RW?

[2nd Post!]

You mean you would rather do this:
Take a screenshot
Alt-tab to an editor
Save picture
Select picture
Upload picture to a website

Over
Take a screenshot
Select in-game photo app
Upload picture to a website

This applies to everything: LiveJournal, WordPress, Twitter, Flikr, .Mac, YouTube, GMail, etc.

Re:Integrate VW with RW?

[bsDaemon]

Somehow, I think that integrating WOW and the "real world" might not exactly be the best idea. Having to play a character 24/7 because people are constantly calling you "Balkor" instead of "Billy," being part of a "quest" even when you're just going to 7-11, etc, would just serve to further blur the lines between fantasy and reality.

Even if it didn't lead to a new spike in game-related (or game-blamed, at any rate) deaths like the Vampire: The Masquerade stuff back in the day this guy.

Not that I'm anti-game, its just that games are for escaping from reality, not merging with it and driving people insane to the point where they go to WORK for escapism.

Re:Integrate VW with RW?

[pla]

You mean you would rather do this: [...snip...]
This applies to everything: LiveJournal, WordPress, Twitter, Flikr, .Mac, YouTube, GMail, etc.

Yes, actually, for one simple reason - The first method doesn't depend on SL staying on good terms (in the corporate sense, ie, money flowing both ways, usually from us-the-users) with Google or LJ or whatever.

Additionally, you've ignored the fact that the "easier" method allows those two companies to know that those two accounts most likely belong to the same human... They can't buy information like that, and you'll just give it to them to save three clicks?

Call me a Luddite, but I will never consider it a "good deal" to save a trivial amount of money or time in exchange for having no real control over my own data.

Re:Integrate VW with RW?

[Bieeanda]

Yes, actually. Second Life's snapshot function is shit, EVE Online's internal web browser has (or at least had) a gigantic security hole in it, and most games' internal screenshot functions don't have the ability to crop, adjust colours for proper contrast, or anything else that I habitually use Photoshop for when showing in-game stuff off to friends.

Virtual World developers can barely be expected to get their core code right. Tacking web browsers, photo editing software and the like on is reinventing the wheel at best, and inviting novel intrusion schemes at worst. I can alt-tab and fiddle with a picture in an editor a lot faster and a lot more cleanly than some underpaid coder can hack a gimped Gimp together.

Re:Integrate VW with RW?

[Kozar_The_Malignant]

Why shouldn't WoW or SL be able to integrate directly with Skype, AIM, email, Facebook, MySpace, or Twitter?

Oh Dear God, No! The very last thing I want is a phone call from a character in WoW. Besides, imagine trying to sneak by some sleeping horror when you Cell Phone of Aetheric Communication goes off with a nice Hendrix ringtone.

Re:Integrate VW with RW?

[Hatta]

Yes of course. Remember the UNIX philosophy, tools should do one job and do it well. Complex tasks are accomplished by chaining these tools together.

We have high quality applications for just about any task on the desktop. Do you really expect Second Life or whoever to reimplement these functions as well as real world application programmers? Do we really need a virtual OS inside our virtual world running on a real OS?

Yes

[Hatta]

Rich virtual worlds are one of those things that sound good in theory, but don't work out so well in real life. I spend a lot of time on IRC, and I just don't see the need for anything more than a nickname and a topic to have meaningful interactions with others online. And even the topic is optional.

Is there really a point to having a 3d avatar?

Re:Yes

[2nd Post!]

You can't try on virtual clothes at an Amazon.com VW in IRC. Nor can you mock up your garden at a Lowes.com VW in IRC.

You can also assembly virtual furniture in your virtual house at a Macy's VW, test how a new dresser might fit in your bedroom, etc, and your 3D avatar would tell you, "It's too tight!"

That would be the logical extension of 3D, don't you think?

Re:Yes

[EggyToast]

The point is that using IRC by itself doesn't get you to buy anything. I'm sure incorporating a VW/RW gardening simulator, sponsored by Lowes, will include many links to "buy this plant now." And outfitting your personal avatar on Amazon.com can not only include one-click purchasing for your real life "avatar," but also include micropayments for those electronic representations.

I'm only mildly surprised that the "quest to 7-eleven" mentioned above didn't include that the quest involved buying a [new soda product] that, in order to complete, you must enter the barcode to the local bartender.

What?

[TheSpoom]

To reiterate: What?

VW VW or VW?

[McNihil]

Volkswagen

Virtual Worlds

Virtual Winter

Profit!

are we talking...

[razorh]

air or water cooled VW's here?

People seem to like AIM better than Second Life

[SterlingSylver]

To reiterate: People seem to like AIM better than Second Life

Not worth the trouble

[Animats]

I continuously hear complaints about VWs not being worth the trouble, especially from people much younger and hipper than me.

Well, yeah. If you're near San Francisco, go to Burning Man, went to Thunderdome last weekend, and have friends in Vau de Vire, real life has about as much drame, and as much bare skin, as Second Life. If you're stuck in Outer Nowhere, Second Life looks like a good option.

Re:Not worth the trouble

[Capitalist Piggy]

Dude. Don't be inviting a bunch of neck-beards to Burning Man.

"Worlds"?

[SanityInAnarchy]

There aren't multiple World Wide Webs. There's just one.

There aren't multiple "Email Networks" -- again, just one.

Why are all the exciting, new, "Web 2.0" technologies all such walled gardens? I understand why I can't take my World of Warcraft character to Age of Conan. I don't understand why I need one login for Slashdot, another for Myspace, yet another for Flickr, and so on -- OpenID, people, please!

I've seen a few attempts to make this happen, but it seems that the most open virtual world we have now is Second Life, which is entirely controlled by the whim of one company (Linden Labs). Where's my general-purpose, open source Virtual World Browser? Why can't I simply walk from one "virtual site" to another -- each controlled, run, and maintained by different people?