Prediction Markets and the 2008 Electoral Map

Electionwatch submitted a predicted electoral map of the 2008 US Presidential election, based on the bets made by the intrade prediction markets. I'm always interested in these markets and how accurate they end up being. This one calls it for Obama, but then again you probably could guess that by just watching 10 minutes of any TV "News" channel.

Comments

Pretty close to CNN

[jeiler]

http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/06/10/electoral.map/index.html

Some of those predictions seem overly confident

[SputnikPanic]

McCain 70-80% likely to pick up Florida? Obama 70-80% likely to grab Pennsylvania? Everyone is expecting those two to be big battleground states. Those probabilities seem pretty lofty to me.

Re:Depends on where you work.

[tjstork]

Don't underestimate the importance of a strong Dollar for the US. With the USD losing value by the hour now, a lot of countries are pondering aloud whether they should accept other currencies in international trade.

Let them. Let the price of European and Japanese goods rise so high that they do not export to the USA any more. I've got ten million US manufacturing workers ready to go back to work, and the unions to back them.

Do you have a faint idea what it would mean for the USD if oil (or any internationally traded commodity that you have to import) was suddenly handled in EUR instead? Or what this would mean for the US economy? I doubt Ford can prop up that disaster!

If worse comes to worse, the USA has 150,000 men sitting on top of 200 billion barrels of oil in Iraq. Do you really think it prudent that they leave at this time?

But, be that as it may, its US corn and US wheat and US coal that are really driving exports right now. If the asian countries do not want to accept US dollars, than, certainly, we can demand that they pay for food in gold.

Re:It's not just the economy......

[porcupine8]

Republican excesses in areas like civil liberties

You mean like that PRO-IP Act a few stories down, the one that turns a civil matter into a felony and gives the feds the right to confiscate your computer if they think you might have maybe downloaded something illegal? The one that was introduced by a Democrat and voted against by only 4 Democrats (and only 7 Republicans, don't worry, I fully acknowledge that they BOTH suck)?

Re:Called if for Obama

[rhakka]

I was just out collecting signatures yesterday to fight RealID and the concessions we're making towards it in maine.

let me tell you; people in rural maine are still afraid of terrorists. I got my sigs because many rural mainers are also damn near libertarians and luckily this time around realID is an unfunded mandate and mainers hate taxes, but I lost plenty to people who want the government to be covering us all like some big, faceless security blanket.

Classic Rookie mistake. People are not logical.

[DrJimbo]

Unfortunately, I think there are going to be powerful dark forces at work to try get the Republicans back in again. People are easily swayed. Another terrorist attack in the USA I think could sway the elections. That after 8 years, Republicans can't protect America? You need to read New World, New Mind by Robert E. Ornstein and Paul Ehrlich. Pdf's available here.

The book explains that people are not rational or logical especially when it comes to risk assessment. The best recent example (the book was written in 1989) is America's reaction to the 9/11 attacks. More people died of hunger that day than were killed in the attack. The US response to the attacks was totally illogical because people felt threatened and this caused them to stop using the higher levels of their brains. They instead, reverted to their reptilian "flight or fight" instincts.

Another similar (or worse) attack will most likely produce a similar response from the American people. They will stop thinking rationally, which is probably the only way the Republicans can beat Obama on November 4th.

Libertarianism is also unstable

[Stephen Ma]

Libertarianism is also unstable: it's extremely likely to decay to fascism or feudalism. A few libertarians know this and are eagerly looking forward to it. The vast bulk of them are too stupid to realize how badly they are being duped.

In a libertarian country, who would prevent the Mafia from taking over? Certainly not the government, which would be so tiny it may as well not exist. Most libertarians have never even considered this vital question. The question is of primary importance because it directly addresses the stability and therefore the durability of a libertarian society.

A few might offer up the feeble answer, "hire a private security firm against the Mafia", but this is not looking far enough ahead. Nothing would prevent these firms from merging with each other or with the Mafia, and growing ever more powerful. And as history teaches us again and again, power corrupts. Eventually, some sufficently merged security firm would become your lord and master, and you would be at its mercy.

Isn't it obvious how easily a libertarian society could descend to feudalism or fascism?