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"Wisdom of Crowds" Works For Individuals Too

Posted by kdawson on from the I-am-large-I-contain-multitudes dept.

ideonexus writes "Take a crowd of people and have them guess how many jelly beans are in a jar, and the average of their answers will be remarkably accurate. Now researchers have found the same goes for asking one person to guess about the same thing several times. Accuracy improved when the individual was given longer periods of time between guesses." The anonymous author of the Economist piece, not quoting the researchers, says the finding bolsters the "generate and test" model of creative thinking.

14 of 158 comments (clear)

  1. In related news... by morgan_greywolf · · Score: 4, Funny

    In related news, students were found to do far better on multiple choice tests when given an unlimited number of guesses at each question. Even students that didn't study eventually got As.

    --
    My blog
  2. A little biased by InvisblePinkUnicorn · · Score: 5, Funny

    Granted, the tests were done on the Price is Right.

    "600 jelly beans?"

    "Higher"

    "900?"

    "Looower...."

  3. From the I-am-large-I-contain-multitudes dept.? by lilomar · · Score: 4, Funny

    Do I contradict myself?
    Very well then! I contradict myself!

    --
    The creator of this post (Jacob Smith) hereby releases it, and all of his other posts, into the public domain.
    1. Re:From the I-am-large-I-contain-multitudes dept.? by JasterBobaMereel · · Score: 2, Funny

      My name is Legion, for we are many

      --
      Puteulanus fenestra mortis
  4. Explains by Paranatural · · Score: 4, Funny

    This explains why there's so much informative discussion here at slashdot. N o one knows much of anything, but if you throw enough wild assed guesses at something, one of them is bound to be right, right?

    1. Re:Explains by D+Ninja · · Score: 1, Funny

      This assumes, of course, that everything in life is like a jar of jellybeans.

      Unfortunately, it's not. Life is like a box of chocolates. Ask Forrest's momma.

  5. Ah duh! by mspohr · · Score: 5, Funny

    The amazing discovery they made is that when people had time to think about a question, they gave better answers. This is profound.

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    I don't read your sig. Why are you reading mine?
    1. Re:Ah duh! by Yvanhoe · · Score: 3, Funny

      And it took a study to prove that. Now let's have a control group that will be base on faith...

      --
      The Wise adapts himself to the world. The Fool adapts the world to himself. Therefore, all progress depends on the Fool.
    2. Re:Ah duh! by Talderas · · Score: 5, Funny

      The point is that while thinking long and hard about some problems can be helpful (e.g. designing something complex and technical), for other kinds of problems, added thought can hinder (e.g. when there are many confounding unknowns).

      So that explains why most /.ers are single.

      --
      "Lack of speed can be overcome. In the worst case by patience." --Znork
  6. yea, no by epfreed · · Score: 2, Funny

    Yea, that seems right. But maybe not.
    Yes, a little right. No, not at all. Total bullshit. Yet also 100% right. Doorknob. Right about 30% of the time. Wait, what was the question?

  7. Sorry, can't resist... by bhunachchicken · · Score: 2, Funny

    http://www.thinkgeek.com/images/products/zoom/despair-poster-idiocy.jpg

    --
    THE HONOUR OF THE KNIGHTS - CC Licensed Sci-Fi Novel
  8. Re:Should this be a surprise? by D+Ninja · · Score: 2, Funny

    This is how you are able to catch a ball. Your brain doesn't do a physics calculation and determine where the ball will land. It guesses, watches, refines the guess, repeats, and eventually the guess is close enough so your hand is in the right spot to catch it.

    Apparently that feature of the brain is broken for the players of the [Insert Name of Hated Sports Team].

    (Hey...I try to make my put downs fun for everybody!)

  9. Re:Wisdom of the Crowds" by thethibs · · Score: 4, Funny

    More like it takes a thousand Harvard graduates in conference to show the common sense of one redneck. But who's counting?

    --
    I'm a Programmer. That's one level above Software Engineer and one level below Engineer.
  10. That's What The Mice Wanted by morgauo · · Score: 2, Funny

    Ah Ha!! Proof! The world and the people in it are a gigantic computer, built by the greatest mice scientists working on the meaning of life! Collectively our minds hold the answer to Life, the Universe, and Everything... even if so many individual minds hold so little.... Where's my improbability engine?!?!? The Vogons are coming!