Slashdot Mirror

← Back to Stories (view on slashdot.org)

"Wisdom of Crowds" Works For Individuals Too

Posted by kdawson on from the I-am-large-I-contain-multitudes dept.

ideonexus writes "Take a crowd of people and have them guess how many jelly beans are in a jar, and the average of their answers will be remarkably accurate. Now researchers have found the same goes for asking one person to guess about the same thing several times. Accuracy improved when the individual was given longer periods of time between guesses." The anonymous author of the Economist piece, not quoting the researchers, says the finding bolsters the "generate and test" model of creative thinking.

5 of 158 comments (clear)

  1. So how long is the emperor of China's nose? by Watson+Ladd · · Score: 5, Insightful

    Wisdom of crowds only works when the crowd has some information about the situation. Look at polls about Iraqi weapons of mass destruction for more details.

    --
    Inventions have long since reached their limit, and I see no hope for further development.-- Frontinus, 1st cent. AD
  2. A little biased by InvisblePinkUnicorn · · Score: 5, Funny

    Granted, the tests were done on the Price is Right.

    "600 jelly beans?"

    "Higher"

    "900?"

    "Looower...."

  3. Wisdom of the Crowds" by phoenixwade · · Score: 5, Insightful

    The idea that a group guessing is more accurate than an individual guess, and if you make more than one guess the mean or average of the guesses is more accurate than a single guess?

    So, in real world terms, 1000 rednecks are going to be more accurate than one Harvard graduate? (assuming the graduate in question isn't our current President) (if we were guessing the number of pickled eggs in a pickle jar, I'd have to agree... Otherwise, I'm somewhat skeptical of how well this translates beyond the estimation of things.

    --
    A positive attitude may not solve all your problems, but it will annoy enough people to make it worth the effort.
  4. Ah duh! by mspohr · · Score: 5, Funny

    The amazing discovery they made is that when people had time to think about a question, they gave better answers. This is profound.

    --
    I don't read your sig. Why are you reading mine?
    1. Re:Ah duh! by Talderas · · Score: 5, Funny

      The point is that while thinking long and hard about some problems can be helpful (e.g. designing something complex and technical), for other kinds of problems, added thought can hinder (e.g. when there are many confounding unknowns).

      So that explains why most /.ers are single.

      --
      "Lack of speed can be overcome. In the worst case by patience." --Znork