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US Halts Applications For Solar Energy Projects

Dekortage writes "The US Bureau of Land Management, overwhelmed by applications for large-scale solar energy plants, has declared a two-year freeze on applications for new projects until it completes an extensive environmental impact study. The study will produce 'a single set of environmental criteria to weigh future solar proposals, which will ultimately speed the application process.' The freeze means that current applications will continue to be processed — plants producing enough electricity for 20 million average American homes — but no new applications will be accepted until the study is complete. Solar power companies are worried that this will harm the industry just as it is poised for explosive growth. Some note that gas and oil projects are booming in the southwestern states most favorable to solar development. Another threat looming over the solar industry is that federal tax credits must be renewed in Congress, else they will expire this year."

91 of 481 comments (clear)

  1. Printer Friendly Format by MrMunkey · · Score: 5, Informative

    Here is the printer friendly format for easier reading. http://www.nytimes.com/2008/06/27/us/27solar.html?_r=1&oref=slogin&pagewanted=print

  2. This isn't a bad thing.. by jonnythan · · Score: 4, Insightful

    They probably should have done this sooner, but it's better to do the EIS before the explosive growth of solar plants.

    This way, they have a much better idea what the effects will be, and have more clear, consistent, comprehensive information and data on which to judge applications.

    I think the companies are just upset because it might prevent them from securing investors during the time they can't even submit an application. But for the people, and the industry, it's probably not that big of a deal.

    1. Re:This isn't a bad thing.. by Fastfwd · · Score: 2, Insightful

      Ideally yes but is'nt stopping everything a too radical solution to the problem of poor planning?

    2. Re:This isn't a bad thing.. by Spy+der+Mann · · Score: 4, Interesting

      This reminds me of code freeze cycles in open source projects... as annoying as they may be for developers (and some users), they're necessary.

    3. Re:This isn't a bad thing.. by lazyDog86 · · Score: 2, Insightful

      They're not stopping everything, they are not letting anything new start while they do better planning. Sounds like a good solution for poor planning to me.

      --
      my insights may be modded Funny, but at least some of my jokes are modded Insightful
    4. Re:This isn't a bad thing.. by emagery · · Score: 5, Insightful

      I agree that it isn't a BAD thing... what bothers me, though, is how many in our government are pushing oil and coal as being uber critical to american energy needs... so much so that environment corners cut are worth the price... but when an alternative to their bias comes up, it's time to throw up the red flags... this isn't to say that oil/coal don't get enviro'd up the yin-yang, but the one sided bias is upsetting for a pro-solar guy like myself.

    5. Re:This isn't a bad thing.. by thermian · · Score: 3, Interesting

      Absolutelly. lets not rush into a new energy source before finding out whether it'll screw us over in the long run.

      I can see the 'oil is evil' crowd getting annoyed at the delay, but we need to know what the effects of solar technology will be. For one thing the air around large solar plants may be significantly heated, raising the local temperature and damaging the environment immediatelly surrounding the plants.

      A small effect perhaps, but so was smoke, once....

      Whatever, this is a good move. I may be wrong about the local heating, there may be other dangers, or none at all. I'd prefer the facts came from a properly conducted study then the mouth of a solar power evangelist with passion but no facts supported by evidence.

      --
      A learning experience is one of those things that say, 'You know that thing you just did? Don't do that.' - D. Adams
    6. Re:This isn't a bad thing.. by mikael · · Score: 4, Insightful

      What they mean is: We fear that if solar and wind power are allowed to grow, it may create unemployment in the coal-mining and gas extraction industries.

      A large solar and wind farm had the capability to replace the energy generated from a small coal mine. , which of course affects the voting pattern.

      --
      Vintage computer adverts: http://www.vintageadbrowser.com/computers-and-software-ads
    7. Re:This isn't a bad thing.. by cavis · · Score: 2, Interesting

      I agree... the environmental impact study should have been done years ago. Wasn't solar power a big issue back in the 70's, even if just for a short while? So why wasn't this done before now? Why didn't the Bush administration Now that the US is struggling with its dependency on oil, corporations are pumping billions into alternatives... only to hit this roadblock? I shudder to think where gas and utility prices will be in two years.

    8. Re:This isn't a bad thing.. by maxume · · Score: 3, Insightful

      You are wrong about the local heating being a problem. Many cities are tens of square miles, and while they experience a heating effect, it is several degrees, not several tens of degrees.

      A light breeze has the effect of spreading the heat from a 1 mile zone across several cubic miles of air in an hour. Significant local heating would *generate* a breeze.

      --
      Nerd rage is the funniest rage.
    9. Re:This isn't a bad thing.. by Smauler · · Score: 2, Informative

      A large solar and wind farm _do not_ have the capability to replace the energy generated from a small coal plant on a still cloudy day, and that is your problem right there. I guess you could invest in some _really_ big batteries. Seriously, anyone who has seriously looked into green energy has found just this one huge drawback (there are others which I will not go into now) insurmountable for large scale operation.

    10. Re:This isn't a bad thing.. by Zymergy · · Score: 2, Informative

      It is not that simple...
      Solar plants, however, do not operate very efficiently at certain times of the day... (For example, we have this thing called 'darkness' whenever it happens to be 'nighttime'.)
      Sometimes, there are lots of clouds too, etc...
      Due to these simple points, terrestrial solar power generation stations will NEVER replace the 24/7 reliability of Coal/Gas/Nuclear/Hydroelectric power generation plants. Solar can only be used as a supplement during peak demand in sunny 'daytime', for example..

    11. Re:This isn't a bad thing.. by olyar · · Score: 5, Interesting

      I would think that the air around a solar plant would actually be cooler, since the panels are converting solar energy into electric power and then transferring it to the grid.

      If that energy had not been captured, it would have heated the ground.

      My understanding is that the environmental impact issues of solar are focused more on the materials involved in manufacturing and/or disposing of solar panels.

      --
      Custom, hands-free Linux installs. Instalinux
    12. Re:This isn't a bad thing.. by Gerald · · Score: 3, Insightful

      The only reason the BLM is calling for this freeze is because they are incompetent government nabobs. They cannot deal with the paperwork, so they are panicking and forcing a freeze in the market

      The USPTO coped with a large amount of applications by approving a bunch of crappy applications. This was bad. The BLM is coping with a large amount of applications with a freeze on applications. This is ... bad?

    13. Re:This isn't a bad thing.. by Don853 · · Score: 4, Insightful

      That's not what they mean at all. What they mean is:

      We have a giant paperwork backlog and we're totally swamped. We're going to streamline the process. Don't give us anything new until we're done with that. In the meantime, we wouldn't have gotten to your new applications anyway.

    14. Re:This isn't a bad thing.. by gnick · · Score: 4, Interesting

      Seriously, anyone who has seriously looked into green energy has found just this one huge drawback (there are others which I will not go into now) insurmountable for large scale operation.

      I agree with what you have to say, but feel the need to run off on a tangent.

      The term 'green' bugs me when applied to solar power. Producing solar cells isn't a very friendly process and the environmental footprint of a large solar farm is worse than that of an oil-rig or gas mine. Just because they don't create waste while operating, IMHO, doesn't make them green. Hopefully this hiatus will yield a rational analysis of that. Nuclear power seems much 'greener' to me despite the fact that it's rarely labeled as such.

      --
      He's getting rather old, but he's a good mouse.
    15. Re:This isn't a bad thing.. by Maxo-Texas · · Score: 4, Interesting

      I think they need to SERIOUSLY consider what kind of trash these plants will be at end of life.
      I'm concerned about the amount of nano-particles being used.

      They need to do the same for CFL (which suck for lighting and may be an environmental catastrophe in the making).

      --
      She was like chocolate when she drank... semi-sweet at first and then increasingly bitter.
    16. Re:This isn't a bad thing.. by value_added · · Score: 2, Interesting

      I agree that it isn't a BAD thing... what bothers me, though, is how many in our government are pushing oil and coal as being uber critical to american energy needs... so much so that environment corners cut are worth the price.

      I'm not sure cutting corners is the right terminology, but insofar as critical infrastructure and price are concerned, a good example may be the EPA's fast tracking of the fence being built along the Mexican border (ostensibly to protect our jobs and Our American Way of Life).

      The cost to the environment: undefined.
      The cost of additional new voters: literally priceless.

    17. Re:This isn't a bad thing.. by emagery · · Score: 2, Insightful

      And as long as you think so, it never will get fixed... you are confusing what is with what could be if someone just plain did it. It was through fossil fuel industry pressure that the last great push made by the carter administration (that would have had 20% of today's grid on solar by 2000) was eviscerated just after Reagan took office... my whole point is... this is very much in the same vein of inappropriate pressures against viable alternatives.

      The problem with your argument is that NEW power sources (of any sort) are needed right now... and you have more options than coal and oil for each new plant you build... but they are getting get-out-of-jail-free cards while solar and wind are swimming in a sea that consists of nothing BUT red tape, despite practically miraculous improvement in both industries.

      And there are quite a few countries around the world that are poking some holes in your argument that solar and wind are not currently competitive.

    18. Re:This isn't a bad thing.. by TooMuchToDo · · Score: 4, Interesting
      Nansolar's new printing process for creating solar panels (as well as their super-cool SolarPly material you simply cut to the desired size/shape and attach leads to pull power off) is extremely environmentally friendly compared to high vacuum deposition used in older glass panels.

      In addition, generation facilities using solar thermal energy (i.e. heating a medium such as molten sodium) instead of photovoltaic panels are pretty "green", as they're just a bunch of mirrors.

      /the more you know

    19. Re:This isn't a bad thing.. by cheesybagel · · Score: 3, Informative

      A concentrating solar thermal plant uses zero solar panels.

    20. Re:This isn't a bad thing.. by gnick · · Score: 2, Informative

      It's amazing how far the technology has advanced over the last couple of years and the new products are exciting (as demonstrated by the frequency of /. posts announcing major advances) - Maybe my comment about panel production was a little hasty. But, even with the increased efficiency, that doesn't eliminate footprint associated with large solar farms. The new panels are great for home use (not affected by this interruption), but in order to put out as much energy as a coal plant (let alone nuclear) you need a huge field of these things. And the plants and critters don't respond well to that (if you're into that kind of thing).

      --
      He's getting rather old, but he's a good mouse.
    21. Re:This isn't a bad thing.. by fbjon · · Score: 5, Insightful
      Covering the area of the US with 8% efficient solar panels will give about 3,9 * 10^14 W during the day, assuming a fairly average 500 W / m^2. The (total!) energy comsumption of the entire world was only about 1,5 * 10^13 in 2005, according to Wikipedia. Covering just 5% of the US area would match the world energy consupmtion during the day.


      Now, use better panels with closer to 20% efficiency, and spread them around in more efficient locations, such as in the world's deserts, and you have yourself abundant energy using nothing but solar panels.

      --
      True confidence comes not from realising you are as good as your peers, but that your peers are as bad as you are.
    22. Re:This isn't a bad thing.. by maxume · · Score: 2, Informative

      Where are you getting your numbers from?

      Back of the envelope, at 500 watt hours per square meter per day, I get a surface area of about 1 million square kilometers (assuming relatively flat consumption of 5e11 kilowatt hours per day). So at 250 watts per square meter per day, that's 2 million square kilometers, and at 1 kilowatt per square meter per day, it is 500,000 square kilometers.

      It's a huge amount of land, but even at 250 watt hours per square meter, it doesn't jibe with 300-500% of American soil, it is 3 or 4 Arizonas or maybe 2 Texases.

      --
      Nerd rage is the funniest rage.
    23. Re:This isn't a bad thing.. by DeadCatX2 · · Score: 3, Informative

      since democrats totally ignore economics, let's do it too, and let's say ... uhm ... that america will print the necessary money

      Sounds like the Republican approach to war.

      Remember - it's not Democrats vs. Republicans, or Liberals vs. Conservatives. It's People vs. Corporations.

      --
      :(){ :|:& };:
    24. Re:This isn't a bad thing.. by raygundan · · Score: 2, Informative

      Your numbers are so far off that it is ridiculous. "5-8%" panel efficiency? Off-the-shelf consumer panels are triple or quadruple that.

      And the amount of land required by your calculation is just silly. As another poster points out... even using your lowball 8% efficiency estimate, we'd need only 5% of the US land area to power the entire world. Obviously, powering the entire US would be quite a bit lower than that, and real-world panels are many times more efficient. We'd need only a fraction of a percent of our total land area to power our usage, and we have a couple of immense stretches of sunny desert conveniently located in the southwest.

    25. Re:This isn't a bad thing.. by AxeTheMax · · Score: 2, Insightful

      For obvious reasons nothing will grow below a solar panel.

      Not correct. You probably mean that nothing that needs photosynthesis will grow in darkness. What you will have under a freestanding solar panel is shade from direct sunlight. This is a different matter; partial shade is good for numerous plants, including many crop plants. Think of the difference between umbra and penumbra, and between sunlight and skylight.

    26. Re:This isn't a bad thing.. by Ralph+Spoilsport · · Score: 5, Informative
      Due to these simple points, terrestrial solar power generation stations will NEVER replace the 24/7 reliability of Coal/Gas/Nuclear/Hydroelectric power generation plants. Solar can only be used as a supplement during peak demand in sunny 'daytime', for example..

      Bullshit

      It's called SOLAR THERMAL. And you use molten salt or graphite to generate electricity at night.

      RS

      --
      Shoes for Industry. Shoes for the Dead.
    27. Re:This isn't a bad thing.. by geekoid · · Score: 2, Interesting

      haha, solar thermal can.
      Germany uses them, and Germany isn't know for it's sunny weather.

      The only problem with solar thermal is getting the turbines.
      Yes, they can store the super heated liquid and use it to run into the night.
      While not considered a base load technology, it's getting pretty damn close.

      Added Nuclear as your base load, start building solar thermal plants in the non-arable parts of the US and begin a concentrated effort on making everything electric.

      The US will need to change. Maybe that will mean just driving a car with a 200 mile range fr a while, but I suspect that range would increase when all car engineers are focused on that problem instead of fuel efficiency.

      --
      The Kruger Dunning explains most post on /. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning%E2%80%93Kruger_effect
    28. Re:This isn't a bad thing.. by Sleepy · · Score: 3, Insightful

      Whatever, this is a good move. I may be wrong about the local heating, there may be other dangers, or none at all. I'd prefer the facts came from a properly conducted study then the mouth of a solar power evangelist with passion but no facts supported by evidence.

      How 'bad' would solar have to be to halt it? Would it need to be 50% as bad as fossil fuel? 75%? Twice as bad?

      I'd be more inclined to agree with your points - it's sound reasoning - except you are NOT applying it to ALL energy types, just the punk upstart. That's not sound.

      Given the huge expense of solar, we're not in danger of blanketing the SouthWest with solar panels anytime soon (although if we found more oil there, there's NO such hesitation in plastering it in oil wells).

      The science on solar right now is that it is among the safest and cleanest, period. It's NOT "new" by any stretch. If that's too good to be true, it can be studied while building new plants. There are plenty of economic brakes on solar right now to keep it from becoming a major portion of the grid.

      Like everything else the Bush administration does, this is designed to keep oil prices high. Right down to post 9-11 fights on better CAFE fuel standards, and fighting FOR tax credits on Hummers (which exceeded Prius tax credits by 40X!). I swear the only reason that devil hasn't threatened Dubai or Saudi Arabia with war is because he plans to RETIRE there.

    29. Re:This isn't a bad thing.. by demonbug · · Score: 3, Interesting

      It's amazing how far the technology has advanced over the last couple of years and the new products are exciting (as demonstrated by the frequency of /. posts announcing major advances) - Maybe my comment about panel production was a little hasty. But, even with the increased efficiency, that doesn't eliminate footprint associated with large solar farms. The new panels are great for home use (not affected by this interruption), but in order to put out as much energy as a coal plant (let alone nuclear) you need a huge field of these things. And the plants and critters don't respond well to that (if you're into that kind of thing).

      I tend to agree, building giant solar farms out in the middle of nowhere doesn't seem like a very positive step. What would be a positive step is looking at all of the places that we could put it where the land is already in use.
      For example, I've been flying into Ontario (the California one) airport a lot for work lately. As you come in to land, you see that the airport is surrounded by this vast sea of warehouses. Acre after acre after acre of blank concrete roof, perhaps with a few skylights thrown in. Cover those enormous areas with solar panels, and you'd probably be generating quite a bit of power. Also, you don't need to worry about long transmission distances - your plant is pretty much right smack in the middle of the city.

      This kind of thing couldn't be used for all of our power needs, but particularly in southwestern cities we could probably generate all the power we need for AC (at least) just by putting existing structures to better use. Solar farms on parking lots, warehouses, etc.

    30. Re:This isn't a bad thing.. by Hemogoblin · · Score: 2, Informative

      Don't be so pessimistic. Solar power, and other renewable energies, are starting to get some real momentum. The Economist has a "special report" in the June 21st issue with tons of articles on the subject.

      This the first article in the issue, and this is the one on solar power. Click on the little "next article" at the bottom of each page to go through it. I don't think a subscription is required, since I'm not logged in and I can see it.

      Here's a exerpt:

      The engineers clearly think they can deliver the technology. But can the technology deliver the power? A back-of-the-envelope calculation suggests that it can. Two years ago a task force put together by the governors of America's western states identified 200 gigawatts-worth of prime sites for solar-thermal power within their territory (meaning places that had enough reliable sunshine, were close to transmission lines and were not environmentally or politically sensitive). That is equivalent to 20% of America's existing electricity-generation capacity: not a bad start.

    31. Re:This isn't a bad thing.. by sampson7 · · Score: 2, Insightful

      I think what many of find frustrating is that whatever bad environmental affects caused by solar plants are strictly localized to the immediate vicinity of the plant. What's the worst that could happen? A small portion of the planet is fouled.

      Compare that to the potential harm resulting from other sources of electrical generation, where the affects are literally global in scale.

      Even compared to the amount of space required for hydroelectric projects, the potential environmental harm is extremely limited in scope.

      On the other hand, there are significant environmental affects related to the mining and production of the materials used in solar production -- so it's not like this is a perfect solution. However, those affects also have to be measured against the comparable affects of building other types of power plants.

    32. Re:This isn't a bad thing.. by Locutus · · Score: 3, Insightful

      for TWO YEARS? I'm sorry but stopping all new solar projects from getting investment funding for 2 years is not a good move.

      What they should be doing is temporarily changing anything in their procedures which would force them to accept or decline an application in a certain period. Then notify all new applicants that there will be a delay and new guidelines are being defined so their application might need to be updated once the guidelines have been determined. Those in the queue will be processed in the order received with any applicant post-action required drops that applicant onto the secondary queue.

      stopping the industry's growth is foolish and just what I would expect from a government based on oil industry people. They gutted the hybrid vehicle program as soon as they took office in 2000 so if that isn't a clue to their motives there are probably a dozen more.

      LoB

      --
      "Anyone who stands out in the middle of a road looks like roadkill to me." --Linus
    33. Re:This isn't a bad thing.. by Frnknstn · · Score: 2, Insightful

      environmental footprint of a large solar farm is worse than that of an oil-rig or gas mine

      The problem with both of those is they produce pollution both at the point of production and the point of consumption.

      The idea of 'green' also hinges of 'renewable'. The supplies of coal, oil, gas and fissionable materials is severely limited, whereas the components needed for production of solar panels are significantly more plentiful.

      --
      If it's in you sig, it's in your post.
    34. Re:This isn't a bad thing.. by gnick · · Score: 2, Insightful

      The supplies of coal, oil, gas and fissionable materials is severely limited...

      I'm with you on oil and gas but, if we re-process and use sensible nuclear plants, there's enough fissionable material to power the earth for a long, long time. Of course, those are two big ifs.

      --
      He's getting rather old, but he's a good mouse.
    35. Re:This isn't a bad thing.. by Don853 · · Score: 2, Informative
      I may be totally misinterpreting the numbers in the article, but these are the specific passages I'm going by:

      Eleven concentrating solar plants are operational in the United States, and 20 are in various stages of planning or permitting, according to the Solar Energy Industries Association.

      and

      In the meantime, bureau officials emphasized, they will continue processing the more than 130 applications received before May 29, measuring each oneâ(TM)s environmental impact.

      It sounds to me like application backlog outnumbers the approved projects by more than 4 to 1, which I'm guessing means that the backlog will last them more than the two year moratorium they have on new apps and hence won't slow the rate of approvals or industry growth at all, while giving them time to create a better standard process for approvals. Additionally, remember this particular piece of the bureaucracy is only concerned with projects on federal land, so any on private land can continue totally unconcerned.

      I would love to see it done faster, but I just don't see this as a big deal.

      As a side note, they gutted the hybrid vehicle program in 2000? Do you mean the end of tax breaks for hybrids?

    36. Re:This isn't a bad thing.. by steelfood · · Score: 2, Insightful

      And when is electrical consumption the highest? In parts of the US, this is during the day (AC). In other parts, it is in the evening (lights).

      If the increased in demand caused by the former could be fulfilled by solar instead of gas/coal/oil, it would already be a major step.

      --
      "If a nation expects to be ignorant and free in a state of civilization, it expects what never was and never will be."
    37. Re:This isn't a bad thing.. by MikeV · · Score: 2, Insightful

      A power grid with diverse sources of power IS that giant battery. And in the SW, there are precious few cloudy days and energy is still generated even thru the clouds. When 360 days are sunny, what's the problem exploiting that energy that's freely raining down on the Earth? It's not a huge drawback and won't replace coal - but will augment it and reduce dependence on it. The more diverse our energy collection is, the less we have to dig the coal. Solar and wind are two big opportunities because over a tri-state area, it's always sunny during the day (and with solar-thermal the heat generates electricity thru the night) and it's always windy somewhere. Spread the plants out and you won't have that problem. Combine that with hydro and other technologies and coal becomes a small part of the whole rather than the main component.

    38. Re:This isn't a bad thing.. by BlueParrot · · Score: 2, Interesting

      It's called SOLAR THERMAL. And you use molten salt or graphite to generate electricity at night.

      So what do you do when it is cloudy for 5 days in a row? Transport electricity across the entire country ?

  3. This should be easy by eln · · Score: 4, Insightful

    People need the electricity. The BLM should only need to answer one question: Will the proposed solar energy plant harm the environment more than a natural gas/coal/oil plant would to produce the same amount of power? If not, let it be built.

    As a resident of Texas, I hate that we're building more and more coal-fired power plants when we have such abundant sun and wind out here that we could be using instead. Hell, I have to suffer through 2 months (and counting) of 100+ degree days, I'd like to at least be getting something out of all that sun other than dehydration and sunburn.

    1. Re:This should be easy by indifferent+children · · Score: 5, Insightful
      I'd like to at least be getting something out of all that sun other than dehydration and sunburn.

      Well, if you can find some way to grant a monopoly to the oil companies on the harnessing of solar power, I'm sure we can clear-up these bureaucratic hurdles PDQ.

      --
      Censorship is telling a man he can't have a steak just because a baby can't chew it. --Mark Twain
    2. Re:This should be easy by jandrese · · Score: 4, Insightful

      You're saying that without humans there would be no deserts? I find this assertion to be difficult to believe. There is an argument that global warming has caused deserts to grow, but one also has to consider the effect of desert reclamation (the Soviets were big on this) through irrigation and careful land management.

      It's also blatantly wrong to say that deserts are collapsed ecosystems. Another ecosystem that dies off can turn into a desert, but within the desert is an ecosystem all to itself. They may not be desirable to humans, but there is no shortage of species that call a desert home.

      --

      I read the internet for the articles.
    3. Re:This should be easy by LWATCDR · · Score: 2, Informative

      "Deserts are not desirable ecosystems. They are what happens when you push a healthy ecosystem to the point of collapse. Over time and without human interference all deserts should shrink (this may require one or more ice age/warm period cycles, however.)"
      Huh?????
      There have been Deserts for a very long time long before man had any real impact on the environment.
      As to how desirable they are? Well to some life forms they are very desirable, to other not so much.
      Your statements on the "value" of deserts is just nuts.

      --
      See my blog http://ilovecookes.blogspot.com/ for light hearted technical information.
    4. Re:This should be easy by emagery · · Score: 2

      The simple answer is that Coal is cheaper than wind and solar.

      this won't be true for very long... see: http://www.celsias.com/article/nanosolars-breakthrough-technology-solar-now-cheap/

  4. goverment tit by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Insightful

    If solar (or ethanol or wind or ... anything) is as good as people like to believe, it can survive without tax credits.

    1. Re:goverment tit by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Interesting

      But make sure the oil companies keep getting their tax subsidies. I mean, how do we expect these poor petro companies to compete with the market controlling renewable energy conglomerates?

  5. I'm betting by Paranatural · · Score: 3, Interesting

    Whoever makes it into the WH will make a big show of giving an executive order to open the applications back up. As to whether this is a good thing or not, I'm not so sure. Solar has been making some big strides, but if everyone is forced to wait a couple of years, who knows what may come out, and what the current implementers will learn in that time? It may just save two years of shitty implementations with obsolete-before-it's-built tech.

  6. The important line in the summary by 192939495969798999 · · Score: 4, Insightful

    "overwhelmed by applications for large-scale solar energy plants".., that's good news. At least people are trying!

    --
    stuff |
  7. Funny how cliches stay true. by Spazntwich · · Score: 2, Insightful

    The government that governs least governs best, goddammit. Of course this will harm the industry; It's an artificially imposed market restriction!

    God forbid somebody do something without those geniuses at the government making sure it's ok first. Them being the kings of noticing unintended consequences in others' ideas. Oh wait...

    1. Re:Funny how cliches stay true. by jonnythan · · Score: 5, Insightful

      Well, the government tends to frown on corporations building power plants on public land without, you know, checking with them first.

      I think you don't understand what's going on here. The Bureau of Land Management is in charge of those vast stretches of deserted desert in the southwest. This isn't private land - indeed, the alternative to dealing with the BLM is to build on private land instead.

      These companies are submitting applications to get the BLM to let them build on public land. The BLM has to decide whether to let the applicant build power generation facilities on the particular piece of public land they're looking at. Oftentimes, many different applications will be submitted for the same patch of land, and BLM has to decide whether to let one build the proposed plant, or to hold out for something else.

      If you want to build some solar plant on your own private land, that's another matter, and you don't have to send an application to the BLM. There will be regulations and approvals and so forth, but you can still do it.

      There is no freeze on the building of all solar power generation stations - this is a freeze on applications for using public land managed by the BLM only.

    2. Re:Funny how cliches stay true. by Spazntwich · · Score: 3, Informative

      I'm sorry, are you arguing that large investment banks are/were unregulated and ungoverned?

      That's hilarious.

  8. Public Land by Thelasko · · Score: 4, Informative

    This is only for use of land owned by the Federal Government. You can still do whatever you want with private land, providing you have the proper zoning and building permits from the local government.

    I don't foresee many issues with local government in the middle of the desert.

    --
    One of our competitors trademarked the term "hypothesis". From now on, we will call them "boneheaded ideas".
    1. Re:Public Land by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Insightful

      You obviously don't own any land. You have confused this with a free country.

      NO ONE owns any land. If you owned "your" land, why do you have to make quarterly rent payments?

  9. Re:aaahh, by Quiet_Desperation · · Score: 4, Funny

    The world needs more Ron Paul type characters.

    It needs an entire Ron Paul font. :-) Man, that was weird...

    I think is funny, because there's a good overlap between the group that is rabidly "alternative energy" and the group that wants draconian government environmental policies. I love it when thing blow up in faces like this. I have the day off, so I'm gonna go out and find an activist to laugh at. :-)

  10. Ass backwards... by Capt+James+McCarthy · · Score: 2, Interesting

    Why don't they come up with the environmental criteria/requirements and state that the application submitter must complete the study and submit the findings with the application. If further study would be required, they could then investigate or push it back to the requesting company/agency.

    --
    There are no loopholes. It's either legal or it's not.
  11. Re:What environmental impact!? by blueg3 · · Score: 2, Insightful

    You could build a giant array of solar panels over area covered by grass. With no sunlight, the grass dies, the rains wash away the soil, havoc commences, etc.

  12. Distributed power station by Space+cowboy · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Personally I think it's probably better to distribute the power-generation facility onto the roofs of all the residents in these 'southwestern states'... Use the wasted space productively...

    • There's virtually no environmental impact, in fact you're helping the environment by reducing the load on the power stations
    • It actually reduces the need for air-conditioning - because a fair amount of the solar energy your roof would soak up is converted to electricity
    • The generation is local, so there's less loss as electricity is transported across the country
    • There are the mentioned rebates and tax credits to reduce the initial cost.

    I'm in the process of installing an 11.9 kW system on the roof of my home in CA. It's costing about $80k (of which I expect to get $12-16k back in rebates) , and it'll take my electricity bill down from $800/month to ~$100/month. Saving ~$700/month makes payback in ~8 years, and the panels have a 25-year lifespan (at which point they're at ~80% efficiency of day-1).

    Why cover the land ? Cover the roofs instead!

    Simon

    --
    Physicists get Hadrons!
    1. Re:Distributed power station by Frank+T.+Lofaro+Jr. · · Score: 4, Funny

      $800/month power bill?!

      Even in Nevada (Nevada Power has very high rates) I don't even know of anyone that comes close, even with a 7 SEER central air unit.

      Are you growing weed or something?

      With that kind of usage, I'd expect the DEA to come visit to make sure you're not!

      --
      Just because it CAN be done, doesn't mean it should!
    2. Re:Distributed power station by Thelasko · · Score: 2, Insightful

      Why cover the land ? Cover the roofs instead!

      I was once told this is because it devalues the property. It's a shame that other people don't think solar panels on a roof are attractive.

      On a side note, I would like to see solar panels installed over the vast stretches of parking lot we have in shopping malls, and amusement parks. It would produce electricity, and keep my car cooler in the summer.

      --
      One of our competitors trademarked the term "hypothesis". From now on, we will call them "boneheaded ideas".
    3. Re:Distributed power station by Space+cowboy · · Score: 3, Informative

      It's pretty easy - PG&E have a tiered cost-system, so it costs more as you use more. I've probably doubled my electricity use since it cost me $200/month, but the cost gets disproportionately higher.

      I have a pool (which has a pump that soaks up 40A) and I have air-conditioning which can do the same. Add the washer/dryer, pond pumps (another 5A) and general load (server in the garage, lighting, etc..) and I'm using ~80kWH/day.

      Hence the solar system :) Yes, this is CA, but no weed...

      Simon.

      --
      Physicists get Hadrons!
    4. Re:Distributed power station by Space+cowboy · · Score: 3, Interesting

      As part of the proposal, the company referenced the appraisal journal (warning: PDF) which establishes that the resale value of a home powered by solar energy increases by $20 for every $1 in saved operating costs. In my case, that adds $168k to the value of my home (on day-1, it gradually tails off over time). This is actually more than I pay for it!

      I think the argument goes that people can afford to spend more on the house because their energy bill will be lower every month - you're trading energy bill for mortgage payment... I'm not sure it makes sense to me, but the appraisers presumably read their own industry journal :)

      Simon

      --
      Physicists get Hadrons!
    5. Re:Distributed power station by Thelasko · · Score: 2, Insightful

      I heard that about ten years ago. Back then solar panels were uglier, more expensive and not as efficient. Things have changed, being green is trendy at the moment. Back then, being green and saving money didn't offset the fact they were unsightly.

      --
      One of our competitors trademarked the term "hypothesis". From now on, we will call them "boneheaded ideas".
  13. soak it up by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Funny
    enough electricity for 20 million average American homes

    Or about 1 million Al Gore type homes.

    Oops - he made some improvements last year - so make that only 900,000 homes worth.

    1. Re:soak it up by Space+cowboy · · Score: 2, Informative

      And yet, from the *same* article you linked to (yes, you actually have to *read* it all), his carbon-footprint per year is precisely zero. Can you say that ?

      Simon

      --
      Physicists get Hadrons!
  14. Re:What environmental impact!? by russotto · · Score: 3, Funny

    You could build a giant array of solar panels over area covered by grass. With no sunlight, the grass dies, the rains wash away the soil, havoc commences, etc.

    You haven't seen the desert southwest, have you?

  15. Freeze? by DeadPanDan · · Score: 2, Insightful

    Is there any way that it could be worse than coal? Do you need two years to answer this question?

  16. Solar power plants on reservations? by columbus · · Score: 5, Interesting

    I don't know why this popped into my head.

    Perhaps it would be a good idea to speak to the Indians about building solar power plants on their land.

    We pushed them off of all the best land and consigned them to places that were arid and infertile. We consoled our consciences by telling ourselves by saying 'hey, we left them with a shitpile of land'. Of course the land wasn't good for anything . . . at least not then.

    Additionally, the Indian reservations are a perennial backwater, mired in poverty and desperately in need of external investment. An enterprising company may be able to get access to large amounts of sundrenched land it needs while the Indians get the external investment they need - a mutually beneficial commercial relationship.

    Also, the moratorium will tend to press potential investors away from public land and could give reservation based solar farms the chance to leapfrog development in other areas.

    --
    friends don't let friends teleport drunk
  17. Re:aaahh, by spun · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Stupid people have existed in every group, every movement, every race and nation, for all time. For instance, a lot of stupid people like Ron Paul. A lot of stupid people like Obama, and McCain. There are just a lot of stupid people. It isn't smart to judge a group by the stupid people that support it, but by the smart people who do.

    As for laughing at activists, the only people I've met who consider that worthwhile are people who haven't done anything good and decent with their lives, and resent people who have. But whatever, go denigrate people who've dedicated their lives to making the world a better place if that helps you sleep at night.

    --
    - None can love freedom heartily, but good men; the rest love not freedom, but license. -- John Milton
  18. hmmm what a cowinkadinky by sgt+scrub · · Score: 4, Interesting
    --
    Having to work for a living is the root of all evil.
  19. Why did people settle in America? by evilandi · · Score: 5, Funny

    I have to suffer through 2 months (and counting) of 100+ degree days,

    This is probably a really dumb question, but as I Brit I have never figured out why settlers chose to live in America. I mean, the climate seems to spend half the year trying to KILL you. I've been to Boston in January and got snowed in my hotel with 6-foot/2-metre snowdrifts that arrived in ONE NIGHT. I've been to Houston in May and been stuck in my hotel lest the 48c/115f heat burn me to a frazzle. I went to California in February and they had to close the coastal highway because the sea had smashed it up.

    I don't doubt for a moment that the USA is a lovely place to live IF you have air conditioning and central heating, but when the first settlers turned up a few hundred years ago, long before climate control, exactly what made them think "This is place to live! This location is ideally suited! We shall search no further!"?

    Now I realise that the Pilgrims were essentially an extreme religious cult who got booted out of the Netherlands for being too nutty (and believe you me, the Netherlands is a pretty liberal place, getting kicked out of there really does take some doing - they must have been like Waco-quality loons). I know they also faced persecution in England for much the same thing. I also know that the British/Netherland climate of, essentially, rain rain rain, cloud, rain, does get a bit depressing, but at least the weather here never tries to KILL you. Any day of the year, anywhere in the country, you can step outside for the whole day and you won't die.

    Whereas the Pilgrims set up home in BOSTON for the WINTER?

    Then there's the wildlife. We don't have any dangerous wildlife, we shot it all, whereas you lot appear to have a country full of poisonous plants and poisonous/pointy-toothed predators. If the American weather isn't trying to kill you, there's some ivy or crocodile waiting to give you grievous pain.

    And then you sing songs about how great your country is. Sure, your people are virtually all fabulous (and anyone who says otherwise clearly hasn't met many of you personally), and ten out of ten for looking on the bright side of things, but your country is trying to kill you - how can that not introduce an element of self-doubt? How can you chaps be so religious when every time you step out of your house/car, some part of God's wonderful environment tries to nail you in the head?

    When it comes down to energy conservation, do you never hover your finger over the thermostat, hesitate and think "Wouldn't it be a lot more energy efficient if I lived somewhere else entirely?".

    (Iceland - it's the future of datacentres, believe you me.)

    --
    Andrew Oakley - www.aoakley.com
    1. Re:Why did people settle in America? by R2.0 · · Score: 2, Funny

      That storm was obviously caused by Global Warming, and therefore was the fault of the US.

      --
      "As God is my witness, I thought turkeys could fly." A. Carlson
    2. Re:Why did people settle in America? by ColdWetDog · · Score: 2, Insightful
      Just a hint:

      If you think the weather and animals in the US are dangerous,
      Don't ever, ever visit Australia.

      --
      Faster! Faster! Faster would be better!
    3. Re:Why did people settle in America? by James+McP · · Score: 2

      Well, our country is like 30x larger than yours so we can have 30x as many crappy places to live and still have the same ratio of good/crap.

      Conversely, you can find almost any environment you like in the U.S.A. Like it hot and dry? Southwest. Hot and wet? Southeast. Tundra? Alaska. Sunrise on the ocean? Sunset on the Ocean? Rain forest? Get all three in Hawaii. Mountains? We've got a couple of ranges, take your pick. Valleys? Lots.

      And as far as why we're not riddled with self-doubt when the environment tries to kill us? Simple, It failed. I'm in Kentucky, ambient temperature right now 88F (31C) and 57% humidity, last week it was 100F and closer to 65% humidity. About three years ago we saw ~3ft of snow (~1m) and back in ~94 we saw ~4ft of snow and ambient temperatures of -16F (-26C) according to the thermometer on my parents' back porch. My childhood involved snakes that are not only poisonous but actively chase other animals (the cottonmouth).

      My friends who grew up in Arkansas and Texas have "that ain't nothing" stories about their childhoods. So the Americans who aren't self confident are huddled in a safe room, hopefully one that isn't infested by brown recluse spiders or toxic mold.

      Unfortunately, those are the goobers who spend their whole time screaming to make the world a safer place for their clinically-conceived, neurosis-infused offspring and nerfing our odds of survival as a species.

      My kids will play with snakes and bugs in the summer heat and do chores in the winter snow and they will be better for it.

      --
      I've been on slashdot so long I'm starting to get out of touch with the cool stuff if it ain't on slashdot.
    4. Re:Why did people settle in America? by greyhueofdoubt · · Score: 2, Interesting

      Nice post.

      My ancestors (mostly scandinavian) came here to log and work in mines, much as they did back home. They were valued for their skill (as opposed to other groups which came here looking for work but without a skilled trade, or one that was useful in the area).

      Northern Minnesota looks and feels very much like scandinavia. Many within my family want to visit Finland, for example, but I really don't see the point- I'm sure the people are very nice there but if I'm going to spend that much money on a trip I don't want to look at the same pine trees, wildlife, and snow that I could see out my own window. No offense, Finland. In fact, the Finnish president was just here for Finland Days last week I believe.

      So me, I'm kind of stuck here because my great-great-great grandfather and mother came here to find good work and cheap land, and now my entire extended family lives within 100 miles of my city (with a few exceptions). I could leave but I feel a sense of duty to people who love me to stick around. Besides, it's beautiful here. The air in the morning smells like perfume, the water tastes sweet, and the sunsets could blow you away. The 100 degree/99% humidity days are made up for by the -50 degree (plus windchill) days. And both of those days are outweighed by being able to have a beer on my back porch in fantastic weather and watch everything from deer to groundhogs traipse through my yard.

      -b

      --
      No offense, but I've stopped responding to AC's.
  20. Interesting Timing by sherriw · · Score: 3, Insightful

    I find it interesting that this 'necessary delay' is happening right at the same time that Bush is pushing for oil development in more ecologically sensitive areas like Alaska. Is he hoping the delay will make oil exploration more necessary, or that the public will get the impression that there are big enviro concerns regarding solar power? When people read that the gov has halted something to 'investigate environmental concerns', they assume that there must be some concerns in the first place.

    I'm not saying there aren't enviro considerations with solar- but why wasn't this done years ago? And why not study solar projects already up and running? The timing is interesting is all I'm saying. And two years!? Give me a break.

  21. Re:Missing something here by CrimsonAvenger · · Score: 2, Informative

    Unless I am missing something big,

    You are missing something big. The Endangered Species Act. It is a violation of Federal Law to even TOUCH an Endangered Animal (with the usual exceptions for scientific research), much less to build something where it lives.

    For a start.

    I'd also like to point out that OTHER options, such as nuclear power plants, don't get convenient fill-in-the-blanks Environmental Impact Templates - everything but Solar has to do its EIS from scratch, rather than follow some pre-approved document.

    --

    "I do not agree with what you say, but I will defend to the death your right to say it"
  22. Re:aaahh, by WhiplashII · · Score: 2, Insightful

    go denigrate people who've dedicated their lives to making the world a better place

    Yah right - activists do not want to make the world better, They want to prevent me from being happy, because my happy is different from their happy - and they think that makes me wrong.

    Why do you think they never want a compromise? For them, a compromise is a loss - they need to stop others, not move themselves forward.

    My 2 cent political descriptions: Republicans want to build new stuff, Democrats want to redistribute existing stuff. These are not irreconcilable, unless it is really about power.

    --
    while (sig==sig) sig=!sig;
  23. Re:aaahh, by spun · · Score: 2, Insightful

    Right, because it is so nonsensical not only to want clean energy. Let's laugh at people because making clean energy is sometimes harder and more complicated than it looks. Yes, that makes all the sense in the world, as does lumping all activists together and tarring them all with the same brush.

    --
    - None can love freedom heartily, but good men; the rest love not freedom, but license. -- John Milton
  24. Re:aaahh, by gnick · · Score: 3, Insightful

    But whatever, go denigrate people who've dedicated their lives to making the world a better place if that helps you sleep at night.

    I agree that ridiculing activists is a waste of time that could be dedicated to something more useful. But, from my experience, most of the most energetic activists I see haven't dedicated their lives to making the world a better place. They've dedicated their lives to pouring huge amounts of time and effort making themselves feel like they're making the world a better place - Big difference. Writing letters and submitting petitions is typically a lot more effective than marching with signs, but not nearly as much fun nor as good a social experience. There are a lot of excellent exceptions of course, but the trend seems to be to latch on to a cause you like, find some statistics/publications that support it, ignore all contrary evidence, then make some signs and go harass anyone with an opposing opinion.

    Sorry for the slightly off-topic rant - I'm hopped up on chocolate-covered espresso beans. =)

    --
    He's getting rather old, but he's a good mouse.
  25. Explosive Growth == Extensive Damage by rocketPack · · Score: 2, Informative

    Solar power companies are worried that this will harm the industry just as it is poised for explosive growth.

    Wasn't it explosive growth of the oil industry without proper environmental research and oversight what got us into this mess in the first place?

    Any company that says "I don't like the government employing restrictions in the name of environmental protection" is clearly not a company I want to support, and this is surprising to hear coming from a SOLAR POWER companies who are supposed to be our allies in the GLOBAL WAR ON ENVIRONMENTAL TERROR (or whatever we're calling it today).

  26. Apparently not all environmental impacts matter... by eherot · · Score: 2, Interesting

    Funny. When they wanted to put the fence along the Mexican border on the fast-track to completion, they managed to find a way around environmental regulations for that.

  27. wrong, again. by geekoid · · Score: 3, Informative

    Your ignorance is shocking, and your presumption that know else knows there is a 'nighttime' makes you look like an ass.

    Solar thermals trap the super heated liquid that can generate steam to turn turbines throughout the night.
    Clouds don't impact their generation much at all.

    --
    The Kruger Dunning explains most post on /. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning%E2%80%93Kruger_effect
  28. Re:aaahh, by gnick · · Score: 3, Interesting

    But I'm sure you've known a lot of activists personally and have direct experience with their activities, or you wouldn't have made such sweeping generalizations, right?

    I wouldn't say that I know many, but that's mainly because it typically doesn't take me long to assess them and write them off as uneducated and unrecoverably biased. I do know a few and I've met a lot. Of course, it all depends on your definition - I only know one guy who takes it to the point of marching around with signs, but I know & assist a few who are the write letters/circulate petitions/work on city council types. Maybe the 'activists' you associate with are just coming from a very different pool than mine.

    That doesn't describe a single activist that I've known.

    Come to Los Alamos, NM on August 6 - I'll introduce you to hundreds. Last year I listened to a very well-received speech from a guy who had served overseas. He lost his son to leukemia not long after returning. Absolutely fucking tragic - I felt for him. The kicker was that he (and based on comments I heard in the crowd, many others) believed that the leukemia was a result of him being exposed to depleted uranium in the field and carrying back radiation that infected his son. He punctuated that point by pointing out the extremely long half-life of DU. The notion that radiation from DU could be carried back and induce leukemia coupled with the idea that a long half-life corresponds to high levels of radioactivity can only be produced by extreme levels of both ignorance and bias.

    You wanted an argument? Oh, I'm sorry, but this is abuse...

    I notice that your post and your sig are highly correlated...

    --
    He's getting rather old, but he's a good mouse.
  29. I'll take a crack by tacokill · · Score: 2, Insightful

    I know you were joking but there is a serious answer to your question: Farming.

    If you have driven from NYC to California, you know what I mean. It is the richest farmland in the world. And we have entire states of it. 100's of thousands of square miles.

    Back in the "olden days", that probably looked like heaven compared to Ireland, Scotland, England, etc.

    "I'll take a sunburn and sweat if I can just keep my damn crops alive!!!!!"

  30. pretty damn convenient by dj245 · · Score: 2, Insightful

    This is actually very convenient! How much baking/TV/laundry are you doing at 4AM? People are most active with their electricity during the day (peak is usually around 4-5PM) and so is the sun.

    --
    Even those who arrange and design shrubberies are under considerable economic stress at this period in history.
  31. No, solar thermal does have storage. by ahfoo · · Score: 2, Informative

    Meet your buddy sodium nitrate. It is a salt that is a solid at room temperature and even up to several hundred degrees temperature. However, once it is heated by the oil in the tubes of the trough solar field or within the heliostat of a power tower it turns into a liquid.

    The sodium nitrate solution or solar salt is typically just a small percentage of the actual thermal storage solution. The majority of the thermal mass being composed simply of silicate or limestone gravel. Thus, the thermal storage can easily be scaled to tens of thousands or hundreds of thousands of tons of storage primarily using on-site materials. It's an extremely efficient and low cost storage solution and depending upon the scale of the installation can provide hours to days of power without any sun. Since solar thermal sites are typically situated in areas of high insolation such as deserts, a condition were days passed without sun would be extremely rare. Thus, this is indeed a technical replacement for baseline power such as coal or nuclear.

    The leader in the market for nitrate salts used in thermal storage applications, yes there's already a market in these things, is a product called HitecXL. I encourage you to google for it and inform yourself on this topic before you continue advising people about the "huge drawbacks".

  32. Re:How Much Potential Does This Really Have? by Medievalist · · Score: 2, Insightful

    Loosely coupled systems are more survivable, though usually less efficient, than vertically integrated systems. A power plant that uses multi-fuel burners and switches between propane and methane based on market price and availability will make more profit than a single-fuel plant unless said plant is located directly on top of a natural gas well owned by the plant. If all the methane (or all the propane) gets consumed by something else (say, a nanomachine or an inflammable bacteria or a government war effort) the multi-fuel plant survives and the vertically integrated competition ceases to exist.

    Humans don't photosynthesize because they are too busy running around avoiding saber-tooths and other humans to stand around in the sun. Eating things that photosynthesize and crapping out their seeds in rich piles of fertilizer is a better deal for everyone involved (including the saber-tooth).

    A plant is sessile because that's been an optimally survivable form given the genetic patterns available to plants and their intersection with real-world conditions. By sitting still, they can harvest enough energy to indulge in titanic production of bulk and/or offspring. In shady swamps, of course, the venus fly-trap with its poor access to nutrients and sunlight evolves to snap up insects.

    Sorry about the lack of structure in this post, but the first sentence tells you what happened to the Ents. They were too slow to keep us from eating them, and too fast to photosynthesize enough energy for reproduction. Venus flytraps can only exist in special ecological niches... you will note they are an endangered species.

  33. Rock-huggers... by flyingfsck · · Score: 2, Funny

    I guess the deserts are populated with rock-huggers, so we have to ensure that these solar projects don't damage the rocks in Arizona...

    --
    Excuse me, but please get off my Pennisetum Clandestinum, eh!
  34. Limited? by DesScorp · · Score: 2, Informative

    "The supplies of coal, oil, gas and fissionable materials is severely limited,"

    The last three are questionable at best, but the first assertion is laughable. Coal is limited? We have more coal than we'd ever use in centuries. The United States alone has one quarter of the Earth's coal, some 250 gigatonnes. In all our history, we've used less than a fraction of one percent of that supply. Even if we turned coal into gasoline with current fuel economy standards, we'd never run out of coal in several lifetimes here in the US. And that doesn't include all of the other fossil fuel sources we have, like shale and tar sands and good ole' petroleum. We also have a lot of uranium untouched in North America.

    So by all means, advocate that we continue to develop tech like solar and wind. By all means, argue against fossil fuel use on pollution grounds. But quit using the chicken little argument about fossil fuels being close to all used up. It simply isn't true when you look at all fossil fuels, even if you believe we've hit peak oil.

    --
    Life is hard, and the world is cruel
  35. true on coil, not on oil by Trepidity · · Score: 2, Informative

    It isn't true that "oil deposits in US federal reserves forbidden for drilling could supply the entire world demand for close to 500 years". Total US oil reserves are less than 3% of the world oil reserves, and could supply just the U.S. needs, if somehow we magically extracted all of them instantly, for about 3-4 years. So maybe if you factor in a bunch of new discoveries 10, even 20 might be plausible, but hardly 500.