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Five Ways Microsoft Could Change After Gates

Might Squirrel noted a perfectly mediocre story to chat about on a boring post-holiday weekend Monday. This one is a look at 5 ways Microsoft could change after Gates. From accepting Open Source to serious interoperability work, there are definitely 5 things on that list there. Nothing about my solid gold rocket car.

34 of 304 comments (clear)

  1. Don't expect any radical shift by elrous0 · · Score: 5, Insightful
    Most of the best ways that MS could change would be way too risky for all but the most gutsy (and possibly most reckless) leadership to embrace.

    They could design a whole new OS from the ground up, abandoning much of the legacy code in Windows that makes it a bit flaky and adopting the "Ã la carte" modular design. They could even make it more secure. But that would risk alienating a huge chunk of traditional Windows users (who still want their old stuff to work, will be confused by a modular design, and who *hate* security popups asking for a password every time they install something). It would be a major risk to the dominance of one of their two big cash cows and could open the door for Apple to swoop in for some market share.

    They could fully embrace open source. But that means risking the dominance of Office--their other cash cow. And they're not going to do that.

    Basically, I don't expect them to change much at all in the post-Gates era. They may embark on some new initiatives and head in some new directions. And I do expect they will be a LOT more internet-oriented in the future. But they're not going to change their fundamental business model, or abandon their core apps to some radical new ideology.

    --
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    1. Re:Don't expect any radical shift by setagllib · · Score: 5, Insightful

      They're boned as far as operating systems go. They can't break backwards compatibility, but that same backwards compatibility is killing them as they try to improve the system.

      Think about it - if you're making a clean break from Windows, would you choose a mature, well established alternative like Linux or MacOSX, or would you choose a completely new, unproven and completely incompatible and unstandardised operating system from Microsoft? Even if the new Microsoft OS is cleaner, being incompatible with EVERY operating system out there would absolutely kill it.

      So they can't keep going with the Windows they have, and they can't start over without losing the only asset Windows has, its backwards compatibility. The superior technology of Linux and MacOSX will keep them alive long after Windows' architecture crumbles, and Vista is the first huge sign that's happening.

      The drop dead obvious confirmation of this is that Windows 7 was meant to be modularised and cleaned up, and all of that has been cancelled already.

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    2. Re:Don't expect any radical shift by mitgib · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Think about it - if you're making a clean break from Windows, would you choose a mature, well established alternative like Linux or MacOSX, or would you choose a completely new, unproven and completely incompatible and unstandardised operating system from Microsoft? Even if the new Microsoft OS is cleaner, being incompatible with EVERY operating system out there would absolutely kill it.

      I don't see why they would need to keep backwards compatibility with their base OS, there are enough choices for running those old programs in some sort of container, be it a VM, or WINE-like process, or a legacy machine that users can RDP to, which might even be a VM itself.

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    3. Re:Don't expect any radical shift by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Insightful

      traditional Windows users (who still want their old stuff to work,..

      I paid a shit load of money for my software. You bet your ass I want it to work.

      ... and who *hate* security popups asking for a password every time they install something

      I don't mind those. It's when I get a popup saying I don't have the rights to install and then shutting down completely without giving me a login box so I can login as an Admin.

      If I really want change, I'll just go with Linux or Apple. Change is my problem: not Microsoft's.

    4. Re:Don't expect any radical shift by setagllib · · Score: 4, Insightful

      All of which still tie you to Windows. What are you going to do, run Microsoft Ubersystem as a pure RDP client to Windows XP, which will be unsupported by then? Let's face it - as soon as you're not compatible with Windows, you may as well run Linux anyway, and Microsoft knows that very well.

      WINE is the most mature Windows compatibility layer there is, and the best Microsoft could do is contribute to it, which you know very well they won't. At that point they may as well make their own Linux distribution or pull an Apple and rebase on BSD. They're totally screwed. The Windows upgrade model is not sustainable and Windows 7 will prove it even more clearly than Vista did.

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    5. Re:Don't expect any radical shift by PhoenixAtlantios · · Score: 3, Insightful

      I don't understand what the major aversion to implementing some sort of transparent virtual machine to run legacy applications is. The idea has been floated hundreds of times by many smart people, yet Microsoft don't seem to want to do it; even though implementing one or more virtual machines to run legacy applications would free them from backwards compatibility in their core system.

      Is there some long-term business reason for not doing this that I'm not seeing? It'd benefit everyone, including Microsoft, in the long term if they did it :\

    6. Re:Don't expect any radical shift by neokushan · · Score: 2, Insightful

      Hasn't Microsoft been working on that kind of technology for a while, though? I mean, they bought the Virtual PC software and gave it away for free while they created Hyper-V (Which was originally meant to be part of the OS anyway), what's to stop them taking that a few steps further and embedding a sort of cut-down Hyper-V that runs legacy applications in a completely cut-off system. You'd avoid a lot of security headaches that way. Of course, there'll still be a few problems, but at least you get the benefits of a completely new OS that's written for today's applications with a good compatibility layer.

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    7. Re:Don't expect any radical shift by UnknowingFool · · Score: 2, Insightful

      Except that Dell's business model might force them to drop Windows or get out of the consumer market. As hardware prices drop, they have to cut costs to compete with other companies. The one cost that is getting higher (by percentage) is software. When your desktop sells for $200 but your OEM Windows license is $50 per machine, it's an unprofitable situation. Even if Windows kept their OEM prices the same for Win7, it's still a hefty percentage. IBM saw this happening years ago and decided to quit the business.

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    8. Re:Don't expect any radical shift by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1, Insightful

      Some years ago I remember reading an article that argued that Microsoft should dump Windows and shift to Linux. Specifically it argued that MS should code the Windows desktop as a window interface running on top of a Linux core. At the time I dismissed it as the ravings of a Linux fan, but I wonder more and more if there isn't some value in the argument.

      Replace Microsoft with Apple, Windows with MacOS and Linux with some Mach/BSD derivative, then you have your answer.

    9. Re:Don't expect any radical shift by Greger47 · · Score: 3, Insightful

      No it wouldn't benefit Microsoft becasue if they drop old-Windows and introduce this fantastic new new-Windows it doesn't matter how good it is, since they are forcing their customers to upgrade to a completly different OS said customers may just as well evaluate all OSes on the market since any OS can run old-Windows in a VM.

      How many do you think will opt to run old-Windows on top of Linux or OS X instead of betting on Microsofts unproven new-Windows, especially considering their track record on their previous offerings? /greger

    10. Re:Don't expect any radical shift by mhall119 · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Even within a distribution, there's a completely new version of Linux seemingly every 6 months. That's enough to keep my business far, far away from Linux.

      You don't _have_ to upgrade when the new version comes out. Do you complain that your car manufacturer puts out a new model of your car every year?

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    11. Re:Don't expect any radical shift by Darkness404 · · Score: 1, Insightful

      So you instead trust MS a company who wants to squeeze out every single penny out of you regardless of how it well it works or not? Seriously, are you going to trust a mission-critical program to run on a Windows box in the first place. Face it, if it is between a company who will sell you a broken version of a program just to get some extra $$$ out of you or a F/OSS project which just hasn't caught up yet, I always choose the F/OSS project because it will at least get better over time, all the proprietary software I know of with the exception of some games get more expensive and less functional and get more bugs.

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    12. Re:Don't expect any radical shift by domatic · · Score: 2, Insightful

      I can see your problem with WINE or any other re-implementation of win32 but what is your problem with virtualization? A VM could basically run a copy of XP or at least a stripped down OS that is based on XP and transparently overlay it on any new OS MS comes up with. As far as your mission critical apps are concerned, they'd be running on XP.

    13. Re:Don't expect any radical shift by swb · · Score: 3, Insightful

      You can already get the Linux flavor of your choice and install Wine on it.

      Which is kind of like saying you can buy a Shelby Cobra kit and drop any engine you want in it. Sure you *can*, but when the competition is factory-built Ford that works out the door, who's going to do it outside of hardcore hobbyists who always had choices anyway?

      Yes, there are desktop Linux distros that ship with it ready to go (more or less), but the fact that they *still* haven't supplanted Windows in any meaningful way means that it must not be as good a solution as advocates have made it out to be.

    14. Re:Don't expect any radical shift by digitig · · Score: 1, Insightful

      as soon as you're not compatible with Windows, you may as well run Linux anyway

      That's only true for some users -- essentially, geeks and those with access to geeks. Every MS WIndows installation I have ever done has been an absolute dream compared to every Linux installation I have ever done (although I confess I've never done a Vista installation). Every MS Windows setup I have worked on has been a dream to configure and use compared to Linux. It's the big challenge for FOSS -- to make the transition from geek-only to general purpose, as the geeks lose interest when it comes down to such anti-geek things as documentation. Linux would be fine for the person who just accepts what their computer comes with preinstalled, and it would be fine for those who are happy to play with the internals (or who have a support department to do that), but I honestly don't think that it's ready for the middle-ground yet -- pretty much the SOHO market. So the question isn't whether there's a market for a non-MS-compatible MS OS, the question is whether that market is big enough for a new-concept OS to get a foothold from which it can build back to the corporate customers. I can't help wondering whether Vista was an attempt to sound that out -- it comes pretty close to being a non-MS-compatible MS OS.

      Although this isn't a troll, I expect it will be marked as one by those who only see that I've been negative about MS and/or Linux, but sometimes the unsayable needs to be said.

      --
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    15. Re:Don't expect any radical shift by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1, Insightful

      Only if you choose a distribution with a short release cycle.
      There are other distributions (like Debian) which have a new release once every year and couple of months, and the upgrade process is very safe and stable.

      It looks to me like you haven't given Linux a serious chance, or you haven't looked closely enough.

    16. Re:Don't expect any radical shift by torkus · · Score: 3, Insightful

      I trust a multi-trillion dollar company that I have multi-million dollar support contracts with.

      I'm not a MS fanboy by any stretch, I'm just a realist with responsibility in the IT field. If my support team finds a critical bug in a key system at 4AM I'm confident we can have a 3rd level engineer on the phone to address and resolve the issue immediately. I've had beta patches made available, even alpha-code written to address a particular fault in the past.

      Sure, if I offered a F/OSS team leader a million dollars a year he'd promise to live at his desk in my office building. In reality that wouldn't be the case and I still couldn't draw on the 1,000's of other engineers and programmers MS has networked and available 24x7x365.

      Is MS software buggy? Sure, some is...and some more than others. Is Linux buggy? Yep, its got its own list of bugs out there too. In the end both platforms have their advantages and disadvantages. We use both and - guess what - there's no plans to replace the linux servers with MS or vice versa. They can co-exist and allow us poor tech geeks to take the best of both worlds for each implementation.

      --
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    17. Re:Don't expect any radical shift by tobiasly · · Score: 4, Insightful

      WINE is the most mature Windows compatibility layer there is, and the best Microsoft could do is contribute to it, which you know very well they won't.

      Um, no, Windows is the most mature Windows compatibility layer there is, and unlike everyone else, Microsoft has the source code to it. They could very quickly create a compatibility layer in any new OS they come up with, much like Apple did when moving from OS 9 to OS X.

      What are you going to do, run Microsoft Ubersystem as a pure RDP client to Windows XP, which will be unsupported by then?

      Don't think RDP, think hypervisor. And Microsoft will support whatever it comes up with. All those old apps will continue to work, but just like OS 9 apps they will gradually be phased out and deprecated for their shiny new native counterparts, which Microsoft will gladly sell to everyone at their upgrade prices.

      Which do you think your typical corporate PHB will favor, running their old apps in WINE on Linux, or running them in a Microsoft supported emulation layer in the newest Microsoft OS?

    18. Re:Don't expect any radical shift by Metal_Militia · · Score: 4, Insightful

      If my support team finds a critical bug in a key system at 4AM I'm confident we can have a 3rd level engineer on the phone to address and resolve the issue immediately.

      For that, there is Red Hat.

    19. Re:Don't expect any radical shift by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1, Insightful

      So long as Microsoft controls cash cow #2 (Office) and cash cow #3 (Exchange + ActiveDirectory), they can do whatever they want with Windows and many people will simply follow them along the way. People who need Office will continue to use it, unless they can be guaranteed some sort of document compatibility with open source solutions, which isn't perfect in OOo, despite what some might believe.

      As for cash cow #3, ActiveDirectory and Exchange are the enterprise tools of choice. Their only real competitors are Lotus, which last I used it (about three years ago) seemed very sluggish, and Novell Groupwise, which I must say was a disaster to administer compared to the Exchange + AD we replaced it with. Samba-based domains have nothing on AD. There is far more to control and better integration with this type of setup then with anything that open-source has provided.

      As for a threat to Windows, I think you will see OS X being much more of a threat then Linux. Particularly since more applications exist for OS X that corporations use. This includes a wide variety of Adobe applications and Microsoft cash cow #2. (Granted Linux can be made to run cash cow #2 fairly effectively with WINE.)

      Remember, the vast majority of MS business comes from Enterprise users. Most of their desktop licenses are tied to PCs sold through OEMs, and I am sure they are making very small amounts of money with that approach as they do from the groups who purchase large quantities of Server and Enterprise grade software (or development software).

    20. Re:Don't expect any radical shift by HeronBlademaster · · Score: 2, Insightful

      A generic Windows install CD works fine if you're willing to go to the manufacturer's site on another machine and put the drivers on a thumb drive. Usually manufacturers group the needed drivers by model number (e.g. support.dell.com, click Drivers, Laptops -> Inspiron -> 6400 -> grab all the ones you need) so they're easy to find.

      You just have to be careful - if your video card is a special Dell model, the official nVidia drivers probably won't work right - you need the hopelessly outdated Dell version of the nVidia drivers. Often the official nVidia ones will refuse to install on OEM-customized video cards.

      So I disagree - it's not a pain in the butt without the OEM Windows CD, if you're willing to do ten minutes of downloading on another machine (or the same machine pre-reformat). XP pre-SP1 reads most any thumb drive.

    21. Re:Don't expect any radical shift by raddan · · Score: 5, Insightful

      but the fact that they *still* haven't supplanted Windows in any meaningful way means that it must not be as good a solution as advocates have made it out to be.

      This reminds me of something Eric Raymond talked about in The Art of UNIX Programming

      [T]he most dangerous enemy of a better solution is an existing codebase that is just good enough.

      I think that's what you're seeing here in the Windows world. Because the cost of the operating system is hidden (bundled with PC), most people don't really feel the impact of having to pay for it-- i.e., they don't need to evaluate it against the alternatives. And, as long as it works for them, there are no issues. Raymond's quote specifically refers to the Plan 9 operating system vs UNIX. But the same thing applies to Windows vs Linux.

      I think what you're starting to see, and the reason why this topic is coming up with more and more frequency, is that for a lot of people, Windows is not "good enough" anymore. Obviously, the "good enough" threshold is much higher if you're a technical user, and I think that's why a lot of technical users have made the switch to Linux-- the added cost of switching, mainly in terms of retraining time, is worth the effort. But for most people, who simply need a web browser, an email client, and a text editor, Windows works fine for them-- most of the time.

    22. Re:Don't expect any radical shift by HeronBlademaster · · Score: 2, Insightful

      First you are going to need storage drivers.

      You mean a RAID driver? Yes, if you have a RAID setup on an older machine you might need a RAID driver on a floppy. But I'd say 95% of end-users don't have RAID. You don't need separate drivers for the vast majority of IDE or SATA setups.

      As for the rest of the drivers, you just need a thumb drive. As I said before, even XP pre-SP1 supports most thumb drives.

      Next you are going to need video drivers. You are not getting these in 10min of downloading either, they probably weigh in around 160M, yep 160M for a video driver....well that and all sorts of useless OEM widgets that come with it.

      Yes, you need video drivers to use Windows. But 160MB? What kind of crappy video card vendor do you use? nVidia's official drivers weigh in at 37.9 MB. Dell's nVidia drivers weigh in at 47 MB. ATI's drivers are 35.9 MB. Dell's ATI drivers are 40 MB.

      So while Dell's drivers are larger than the video card's manufacturer's official drivers, they're not nearly as huge as you claim they are.

      Now you need network drivers These might be easy to hunt down if you are on a popular chipset platform or have a popular discrete controller.

      ... or if you just do what I originally said and go to the vendor's website. For Dell, for example:

      support.dell.com
      Get Drivers
      Laptops
      Inspiron Laptops
      6400

      Click the little + next to Network. The only wired network driver in the list is the correct one.

      You'll note that the example I've used here is a laptop - which you claim is a "nightmare" without the OEM CD. If you were correct, then I'd be screwed - Dell shipped me the wrong driver CD with my laptop - TWICE. Yes, twice. For the same laptop. Fortunately for me, and for everyone else, you're wrong, and it's quite trivial to do a fresh install of Windows using a generic non-OEM Windows CD on my Dell laptop.

      I do these in a different order than you indicate, though. Usually the only driver I install via thumb drive is the network driver. After that I can download everything from the new installation.

      Note even if you have a fast connection the manufactures FTP site will be painfully slow.

      Dell's site is plenty fast. nVidia's site is plenty fast. eVGA's site is plenty fast. I'd bet ATI's site is plenty fast. Maybe you're stuck on dialup?

      Sounds like you're the one not being honest - unelss you're just clueless.

    23. Re:Don't expect any radical shift by amorsen · · Score: 2, Insightful

      You mean a RAID driver? Yes, if you have a RAID setup on an older machine you might need a RAID driver on a floppy. But I'd say 95% of end-users don't have RAID. You don't need separate drivers for the vast majority of IDE or SATA setups.

      For Windows XP you need a driver floppy for all AHCI installations. That's basically all systems these days. However, almost all of them have legacy-ATA emulation turned on by the factory so that Windows XP will install -- even though that means worse disk performance. Good luck getting a random user to flip the BIOS switch if it's set to AHCI though.

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    24. Re:Don't expect any radical shift by DrgnDancer · · Score: 3, Insightful

      Ok, now you're being dishonest. I'm a loving Linux kinda guy, I have an old laptop running a file server over ndiswrapper'ed wireless driver FFS (yeah it's not very fast, but I'm not sending large amount of data back and forth and it's easier than running cable to my back office). Installing Windows is rarely if ever that difficult unless you are trying to install Windows 98 on a new Core2 Duo machine, and let me tell ya that installing old version of Linux on new hardware is no picnic either.

      I have Never Ever had install storage drivers on a workstation, laptop, or desktop class machine while installing Windows XP. I've done it on some pretty new hardware too (Including a box that I DID have to install storage drivers to get SuSE 9.0 on, which is a roughly concurrent OS). Server class hardware is a different matter, but hardware RAID cards are often fidgety in any OS install.

      Nearly every Video card I've every worked with is capable of showing XP at install with a much higher resolution than 800x600. Usually you only need to install the video drivers to get 3D acceleration working. This is more or less the same as Linux, which can usually display X in some way or fashion at install, but need proprietary drivers to use the fancy features of a card.

      Network cards are far MORE likely to work out of the box on a Windows install than a Linux install. Especially wireless networks cards. Linux's support for WiFi is notoriously poor. This is not really the fault of the Linux community or the distro vendors of course, but it doesn't change the fact that it's a bitch and a half to get wireless going on most Linux distros for all but a handful of cards.

      I use Linux extensively as both a server and desktop OS, I also use MacOS and Windows (though I avoid Windows very much, and we're considering switching to Macs for our admin staff). Misrepresenting Linux's warts or making Windows sound worse than it is doesn't accomplish anything. Especially here where people know better. I'd almost get the impression that the last time you install Windows was a Win98 box and you're assuming nothing has improved in ten years.

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  2. Working to standards rather than making the code by RichMan · · Score: 5, Insightful

    From Microsoft's attempts at documenting their file formats and interfaces I can say that Microsoft does not work to specifications or standards. They make the code work then make the working code the standard. That is bad practice and leads to, as all can see, bloated, undocumented and overly large interfaces.

    I believe the biggest change for Microsoft, whether or not they embrace openness, is to work to a specification driven development rather than a code driven development system. Spend the timing working on the specification and interfaces, get a workable interface and security model then implement it.

  3. Re:5 ways by Doug+Neal · · Score: 3, Insightful

    1. It could get much worse

    My money's on this one. Bill Gates was a mild-mannered geek. Steve Ballmer's just a psychopath.

  4. ok, let's chat by Tom · · Score: 5, Insightful

    #1:
    Yes, Gates has been an opponent of Free Software ever since his famous first letter. However, he's not been as vocal regarding Open Source Software, and that's where it's our loss that we forgot about the difference between them. MS has made some early attempts with "shared source", and like other stuff, they'll refine it.

    #2:
    Nonsense. That's got absolutely nothing to do with Gates, and everything with the fact that MS simply can't write another windos. After the entire NT team packed up and left, it's been going downhill, and one of the reasons Vista sucks so much is that they shipped something that nobody in the company understood how it worked. If you thought Vista was a trainwreck, wait for Win7.

    #3:
    What this shows even more is how MS works. Despite their total lack of experience and ability, they enter the game like they own it, and get a bloody nose. But they come back - and get another beating. Just that they keep coming back. You can see that modus operandi in almost every area. Hardware, consoles, much of their non-core software. Usually, it doesn't matter much because they don't learn and keep on sucking, but sometimes along the way they get some wits, or acquire another company, and suddenly they matter (e.g. hardware) or the market is just so small that by sheer power they force their way in (e.g. consoles).

    #4:
    Pfft. Unless you've been living under a rock for the past 20 years or so, you know that MS announcement regarding ODF is simply the opening stage of EEE. MS has replaced the "then you win" step of the "first they laugh at you..." thing with "then they embrace you, extend you, extinguish you", and fairly successfully at that. With MS as you enemy you don't win when they give up the fight. That's just their way of saying "ok, the cheap and easy way didn't work, we'll have to take you down the old way".

    #5:
    Yes, maybe. The only point that holds some merit, and even includes both sides of the story. Personally, I think MS will break apart. It'll be a long time, but a disorganized, never-grown-up company like MS simply needs a strong man to hold it together, and for all I know, the ape simply won't do.

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  5. Re:Open source Windows Vista? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1, Insightful

    They'd probably use a non-GPL license, like CDDL, so the hardcore zealots will refuse to touch it.

  6. Re:my personal preference by thermian · · Score: 5, Insightful

    Would be for microsoft to simply go away.

    Really? And what would you replace them with? An Apple Monopoly? an IBM one? Linux?

    Notice how many Linux distro's are being sponsored by big companies these days? Ok, this is a good thing as part of an active OS ecosystem, but name one you'd happily hand a majority share of the OS market to.

    Microsoft can't be excised from the IT world. If they, for the sake of argument, collapsed next week, there would be a worldwide IT company crash of epic proportions. We would all suffer.

    Like it or not, we need them to stick around. In order to survive they will have to evolve as a company, just like IBM did. I hope they do, as much as I like Linux (and I do, a lot), I wouldn't like it if that was all there was aside from Apple's OS.

    --
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  7. Cat got my tongue. by manwal · · Score: 2, Insightful

    Without Gates Microsoft runs the risk of becoming a faceless super-corporation focusing on sales rather than developing the tech that could give the company an edge.

    Huh?

  8. Re:Isn't #5 already the case? by slash.duncan · · Score: 2, Insightful

    You missed a word.

    Until days ago MS had a face, Gates' face (borged or not). Without Gates, without that face...

    But it's still not entirely faceless. There's Balmer, altho some may argue they'd be better without /that/ face.

    Anyway, the rest may indeed have already been the case, but like 'em or hate 'em, there's little good argument to be made in the statement that Gates really was synonymous in many ways with MS, and that really, they could have done a lot worse.

    --
    Duncan
    "Every nonfree program has a lord, a master,
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  9. "Open Source" != "Open Standards" by argent · · Score: 2, Insightful

    There have been a number of open source projects over the years that have been kept under the control of a single source (by dual licensing, for example), and others that have ignored, ridden down, and flagrantly broken standards. There's been at least two high profile projects that have deliberately used embrace-end-extend to knock competing software (including other open source projects) out of the ring. Open source is not the same as open standards... hell, the software that really started the whole open systems movement in the '70s didn't have a good open source implementation until the '90s.

    Both open source and open standards are important, vitally important, but they are not the same thing and mixing up the two just muddies the water and hurts both movements.

  10. Re:Heh by setagllib · · Score: 2, Insightful

    No, that is ridiculous. MacOSX kept a lot of compatibility with its BSD base and emulated MacOS9. The transition period was huge, and it was starting from scratch. Microsoft will not have the same opportunity, and it will lose a lot of market share.

    The best Microsoft could do is something similar, rebasing on BSD and making a compatibility layer, but with almost every non-trivial Windows application hooking itself into the kernel and services and everywhere, that will NOT work for most of what ties people to Windows anyway.

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