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NASA Shuttle Replacement's Problems Are Worsening

ausoleil noted that NASA's replacement for the shuttle, the Orion, is slipping behind schedule "'We're probably going to have to move our target date,' NASA exploration chief Doug Cooke told The Associated Press on Wednesday after Nasawatch.com posted the 117-page internal status report (PDF) on the moon program. The cost problems include an $80 million overrun on a motor system. The Orion spacecraft's design remains too heavy for the proposed Ares 1 rocket. Software development, heat shield testing and other complex work remain behind schedule or over budget. There are dozens of such serious challenges, many of which are 'worsening.'"

18 of 344 comments (clear)

  1. yeah, that's right. i'm not a rocket scientist by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Funny

    but i'll play one on slashdot and come up with all kinds of rubber band and duct tape solutions and act like my 11th grade physics class bests nasa engineers.

    wait, my friends, you'll see tons of posts just like this except for that the posters take themselves seriously.

    1. Re:yeah, that's right. i'm not a rocket scientist by sm62704 · · Score: 5, Informative

      but i'll play one on slashdot and come up with all kinds of rubber band and duct tape solutions

      You mean like the ones that saved Apollo 13? IIRC the solution to the problem of running out of breathable air involved rubber bands and duct tape.

      --
      mcgrew's razor: Never attribute to stupidity that which can be explained by greedy self-interest
    2. Re:yeah, that's right. i'm not a rocket scientist by dotancohen · · Score: 5, Funny

      IIRC the solution to the problem of running out of breathable air involved rubber bands and duct tape.

      Because duct tape can be bought on any budget. Hell, it better be the first thing on the budget. Hell, it's probably holding the budget together.

      --
      It is dangerous to be right when the government is wrong.
    3. Re:yeah, that's right. i'm not a rocket scientist by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Interesting

      The more expensive and the longer it takes, the more the contractors make. There's no motivation to be on time and under budget.

      Not true... cost plus is good if you don't want the "lowest bidder" mentality. Although underhanded tactics will inevitably exist, NASA only pays contractors cost plus a FIXED profit for the contractor.

      They have no incentive to run over on the time

  2. What has happened to us? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Insightful

    We seemed more adventurous and capable in the 1960s than we are in 2008. Is this what has become of the great spacefaring nation that so many before us had envisioned? Despite serious technological advancements, have we lost our momentum? Maybe it was a passion for the unknown that enabled us before. I fear it has been replaced by disinterested private contractors, underfunding, and ambivalence. More so if this shuttle replacement isn't successful.

    1. Re:What has happened to us? by east+coast · · Score: 5, Insightful

      There's two major problems:

      1. Less funding. For as much as we use it as a dick wagging competition neither party has a real interest in seeing a very robust space program when those dollars could go to buying off voters with more useless ventures that put cash in the right pockets.

      2. Speaking of dick wagging competitions, we've lost our main rival. While the argument could be made that the Chinese are going to beat us up in the space race in another couple of decades, most people just aren't that interested. The space race is no longer a spectator sport since Crazy Ivan is now regarded as either friendly or impotent. The same Joe Sixpacks who shell out hundreds to thousands of dollars each year on their favorite football team were keeping interest in the space program alive when it was competitive. They love The Right Stuff, they yawn at 2001.

      --
      Dedicated Cthulhu Cultist since 4523 BC.
  3. The Intermediate Solution by WwWonka · · Score: 5, Funny

    NASA has reported that the delay and the budget crunch has forced it to reconsider a prior option that will now be built on the shores of Cocoa Beach, FL. It will include two one hundred foot towers with a very elastic synthetic band extending between them. A state of the art human reclining space momentum chair will be attached in the middle to propel future explorers into space...or some where father out into the Atlantic Ocean.

    1. Re:The Intermediate Solution by RabidMoose · · Score: 5, Funny

      This solution contains rubber bands, but is detrimentally lacking in duct tape.

  4. Re:Just wait by smittyoneeach · · Score: 5, Interesting

    Just set up a national tip jar on something akin to PayPal.
    Citizens actually want to fund space activities, not the stuff that's killing us: http://perotcharts.com/
    Dis-intermediating DC is step #1 in carrying out the will of the people.

    --
    Get thee glass eyes, and, like a scurvy politician, seem to see things thou dost not.--King Lear
  5. Meh. by susano_otter · · Score: 5, Insightful

    You should see the contortions Grumman had to go through, to get the Lunar Module under the mission weight budget, well into the Apollo Program.

    I figure the only thing that's changed between now and then is the Internet makes it much easier for the lay public to form entirely the wrong impression about highly complex and technical works-in-progress.

    --

    Any sufficiently well-organized community is indistinguishable from Government.

  6. Re:I'm outraged? by dotancohen · · Score: 5, Informative

    The cost problems include an $80 million overrun on a motor system

    Well, that's sucks I guess. But since NASA has something like a $17 billion budget, isn't that a colossal non-issue? I realize this was just the motor system, but if I had a $40,000 budget to furnish a new home, I don't think I would be concerned if the coffee table was $20 more than I was expecting.

    From Wikipedia:
    "NASA's current FY 2008 budget of $17.318 billion represents about 0.6% of the $2.9 trillion United States federal budget."

    I'll let the reader come to his own conclusions about US priorities. Without linking to the DoD budget.

    --
    It is dangerous to be right when the government is wrong.
  7. Re:Just wait by AKAImBatman · · Score: 5, Informative

    I think you're confusing Ares I and Ares V. Ares I isn't all that big. It's a single stack of capsule -> fuel tank -> stage 2 engine -> stage 1 solid rocket booster. If anything, it's quite a bit thinner than most rockets. However, it does make up for this by towering a massive 94m high. Which does mean a few upgrades to the scaffolding.

    The Ares V, however, she's gonna be a beasty. With six (!) main engines, two outboard Solid Rocket Boosters, a plump width of 10m on the central stack, and a towering 116m tall, she's going to put every other rocket to shame. Personally, I can't wait. ;-)

  8. Why the Ares I? by mpthompson · · Score: 5, Insightful

    There are existing commercial launch vehicles such as the Delta IV or Atlas V rockets that can be man rated or the potential upcoming commercial launch vehicles such as the SpaceX Falcon 9 that could replace Ares I. Although man rating isn't trivial it's insane for NASA to create a new rocket to compete with existing commercial launch vehicles. NASA should encourage making manned access to low Earth orbit a low cost commercial commodity rather than using government resources to discourage such access.

    In fact, NASA should contract with two independent suppliers capable of lifting the CEV to low Earth orbit and buy launch vehicles from each supplier in near equal quantities. This would add some expense, but it would make sure that should a launch accident occur our manned space program isn't grounded for years as complex accident investigations occur and fixes are implemented on the failed launch vehicle.

    The Ares I is an albatross that only exists because of pride and politics. It is harmful to the exact type of space development that this nation needs. In the early 60's NASA didn't lose any face by choosing to re-purpose ICBMs for the Mercury and Gemini programs. Instead, out of necessity, NASA it's rocket building teams on the Saturn series of rockets. It was the practical decision then and it is the practical decision to re-purpose existing vehicles now for LEO access.

    If NASA wants to build a launcher (and whether they should be building any is a very debatable) then they should be concentrating exclusively on the Ares V/VI which actually goes somewhere and does something that commercial space companies may not be able to do economically today.

  9. Re:Gap? by inviolet · · Score: 5, Insightful

    This is expected, though. Since when do projects half this scale go as planned? I just hope the Americans get their shit together and give Orion the funding it needs.

    Actually this kind of cost overrun is absolutely planned.

    You'd do it too, if faced with this alternative:

    • Propose to congress a project which will cost $40B, be truthful about the cost, and be rejected; or
    • Propose to congress a project which will cost $40B, lie and say it will cost $15B, and be approved. Later the cost will rise but Congress will not care, or will commit the "sunk cost fallacy".

    If you cared *nothing* for your country but just wanted to run a big project, then you would lie, get the money, and do the project. On the other hand, if you cared *dearly* for your country, and knew it needed a space program, then you would lie, get the money, and do the project.

    Ah well.

    I am finally at peace with this. What I will never be at peace with, however, is the fact that the space program is a mere drop in the bucket of market-distorting federal transfer payments.

    --
    FATMOUSE + YOU = FATMOUSE
  10. Re:Fortunately for NASA by maxume · · Score: 5, Informative

    The post office is, roughly, a crown corporation. It operates under a government mandate and follows some special rules regarding taxes, but it has been self funded for quite a long time now.

    --
    Nerd rage is the funniest rage.
  11. Re:Why the Ares I? -- Uhh, payload? by Phairdon · · Score: 5, Informative

    Did you look at how much payload each rocket can take to orbit before you made this post? Look at the payload capacity to GTO (not LEO)

    Let me list the estimated maximum payloads since you did not:
    Delta IV: 20,000 pounds or so
    Atlas V: 18,000 pounds or so
    SpaceX Falcon 9: 27,000 pounds or so
    Ares I: 50,000 pounds or so

    See the difference? Ares I is also rated for man-flight, which just makes everything much more complicated.

    The article is from a florida newspaper. Of course florida newspapers are going to print doom stories because they don't want to lose Shuttle business. Losing business happens.

  12. Re:Did we really make it to the moon? by willith · · Score: 5, Insightful

    Damn it, I *JUST YESTERDAY* posted to correct this fallacy. When will the Internet learn?

    The blueprints for everything, down to the last nut and bolt, are on file at MSFC. Source.

    Further, rebuilding a Saturn from them won't work. You can't get the parts made any more, nor would you want to. You can't duplicate IBM's work and make another Instrument Unit--two tons of 1960s-vintage analog computers and gyroscopes, including equipment designed to determine the rocket's launch azimuth based on star sightings, not GPS like we'd use today. Then there's all the other analog and early digital equipment that's integral to the design. Remember, it's not just a giant fuel tank and some engines--it's a launch vehicle. It's got a flight manual, and it's designed to be used in conjunction with an Apollo command and service module pair flying it.

    Re-design the rocket to use new technology? By the time you've de-Apollo'd Saturn, you've made a whole new launch vehicle. Which is exactly what Ares is.

    The Saturn V is an awesome piece of technology, yes. An awesome piece of 1960s technology. Rebuilding it today would not work, period, no matter how cool it might be.

  13. Re:I am a Rocket Scientist by benjackson520 · · Score: 5, Informative

    If they're serious about replacing the shuttle with only a couple years of downtime, they should already be gearing up to test the system as a whole. I'm not personally involved in the project, but it doesn't even look like they're ready to test big pieces yet. Maybe 2020 is a more reasonable date to actually begin flights.

    Disclaimer: I'm a NASA employee at Stennis Space Center, programmer not rocket scientist. The first round of testing on the powerpacks for the new J-2X engines was last month, second round is scheduled for early 2009. That's not the fully assembled engine assemblies, but it's progress.