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IT Jobs To Drop In 2009
ruphus13 writes "A new Goldman Sachs IT report recently released states that IT jobs will be dramatically reduced in 2009, starting with contract and offshore developers. From the article: 'Sharp reductions likely in contract staff, professional services and hardware, and almost no investment in cloud computing.' The article goes on to say 'The CIOs indicated that server virtualization and server consolidation are their No. 1 and No. 2 priorities. Following these two are cost-cutting, application integration, and data center consolidation. At the bottom of the list of IT priorities are grid computing, open-source software, content management and cloud computing (called on-demand/utility computing in the survey) — less than 2% of the respondents said cloud computing was a priority.' Postulating a 'pointy haired boss' problem, an analyst goes on to say, '[Grid computing, Open Source and Cloud computing] require a technical understanding to get to their importance. I don't think C-level executives and managers have that understanding.' But they do control the paychecks ..."
If there was ever a semi-mindless task that brings home the bacon, integration is it.
Make this work with that and that work with this.
Ok.
*scratches ass*
*does it*
*gets paid then laid*
but, will they really drop globally ?
AND, since, our area, i.t., is a field that is kinda the originator of the concept of telecommuting, wont many i.t. people in u.s. be able to find work overseas, working through telecommuting ?
i dare not say demand for i.t. people will go down worldwide. its kinda impossible, since i.t. revolution is on full steam right now - we, as a civilization, are little far from trying to integrate our toilets to computers and internet.
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This doesn't surprise me too much. There's been a bad recession on the horizon for quite some time now, and it looks like it's coming home to roost.
For the first time since I graduated college, I'm not getting called for interviews, even for positions which I'm eminently qualified. It's getting tougher for people to find jobs, regardless of what they do. I've heard Republicans say that we're going to be in the worst recession since the Great Depression - which means that we're probably in quite a bit of trouble.
Perhaps I'm speculating a little too much here, but I'll bet the money that would have gone for IT salaries, etc... is now going into the coffers of the oil companies. Because our economy is so dependent upon oil for everything we do from growing crops to power generation to transportion, any rise in the price of oil is going to have a ripple effect.
Perhaps GW and Co saw peak oil coming and thought if we could just take Iraq, that we'd have enough oil. Perhaps they didn't understand that the loss of Iraq's oil on the world market would drive up prices - or maybe they did...
The society for a thought-free internet welcomes you.
Can't speak for the US, but in the UK we're ideal for economic downturns.
We don't cost holiday, pension, bonuses or sick pay, we don't have loads of employment law red tape and we can be brought in for specific projects and timeframes and tend to come with much shorter notice periods.
Plus the public sector loves us.
We'll see a freeze in rates, maybe even a reduction, but if anything economic downturns signal a bad time for those in permie jobs.
Bob the permie coder might be on half my hourly rate, but if he's only got three months work in a year he's going to cost you more than twice as much as bringing me in for 3 months.
Until someone with the correct technical understanding can actually go to their manager and (with a straight face) say, "I'll use cloud computing to solve this problem because that'll save us money and time" there's no real reason to expect anyone to get it.
Successful blue-sky projects are mostly run by strong companies in good economic times. So, not so likely right now. Someone who's playing with their own money could well take advantage of this lack of understanding or vision or whatever, but that's not really a bad thing. Unless you're stuck in cubicle land and still want to play with the latest, coolest buzzwords.
cogito ergo dubito
Indeed. Also, I'd definitely like to read the original GS report that the article is supposedly based off of.
Pund-IT may be crap, but Goldman is not, so it would be interesting to see the original report.
Contractors, maybe. Consultants? Not very likely.
If you are a seasoned IT professional or somebody who is starting out, things are looking bright for you as long as you have what it takes to be an engineer. I welcome any sort of clean up or a downturn in IT economy because most of the time it means that the bottom of the IT-wannabes will be laid off. This will benefit everybody in the long run.
First of all, engineering, unlike being a pizza delivery person, requires some knowledge and a certain set of analytical skills that one is born with. You can train people to deliver pizzas and punch cards, but it is hard to train people to resolve problems or come up with elaborate solutions. While books and schools may help, you either get it or not from the very beginning. Downturn in IT will mean that people who were there just for the sake of it, will probably lose their jobs or move on. This is great for the folks who -- while being good peole -- are simply not suited for jobs in the field of information technology.
While we all cry about off-shore development labs and cheap labor around the world, we are forgetting one thing: Americans are cheap now. Due to the falling dollar it makes less sense to run costly operations overseas. With China, India and Russia on the rise, people in those countries may see little in jobs and environments that make them work for the global companies (aka capitalist pigs).I would not be too concerned about wages if I were you. In fact, bad conditions in the U.S. sent many people who are currently employed via visas overseasas. Several friends of mine have moved back to their home countries alrady because "There is nothing to do in the U.S." This happens because while U.S. economy may go down, the world's economy is still expanding and there are plenty of things that have to be done in Moscow, Mumbai and Beijing. Good fore those who go back home and establish companies there. Good for the rest of us who are here.
And finally the loss of IT jobs should not be seen as the judgement day. I found that many people with engineering and business skills are more than capable of starting their own businesses and running their own shows. If you do not belong to the first group of people -- the ones who were not doing anything productive -- and you're not on a visa -- and you cannot go back home to start something new -- use the settlement to start something new. Many large companies are losing business because of the bad decisions that were made across the corporate ladder. A bust is only a bust if you think this way. In reality, it is a great opportunity for improvement for those of us who would like to grab the bull by its horns.
The report was based upon a survey. So, the reason for the reporting is "Most CIOs we interviewed expect to reduce expenditures for contractors and discretionary IT spending". If you want reasons, you'd probably need to contact the CIOs that were interviewed. But here's my guess: pressure from owners/the board to reduce costs in the face of lower forecasted revenues.
Take the article for what it is... not an analysis of why and how companies will reduce spending, but instead the results of a survey.
"Trolls they were, but filled with the evil will of their master: a fell race..." -- J.R.R. Tolkien on Olog-hai
Well, I think I should prepare to jump the IT ship pretty soon. My friend, with whom we were in this IT sector, jumped to the health-care field.
His Bachelor's and two Masters degrees in the IT sector at age 37 helped him get admission into one of the most coveted Nursing courses. He now practices as a nurse manager, earning close to US$80K. This does not include part-time work which he has to run away from.
This fella makes close to US$145K. I envy him. Guys, the health-care field is booming. Reports say nurses are in short supply and this will be the case for another three decades!
I am seriously considering jumping ship before it's too late.
Question is: Am I wrong?
This doesn't surprise me too much. There's been a bad recession on the horizon for quite some time now, and it looks like it's coming home to roost.
I wonder if your exact area of expertise or geographic location is a factor in that? I haven't been looking for work in months and still get occasional calls to see if I am looking for work. (The most recent one was just last week, and they were looking for a 1-2 year commitment.) I've heard of some people having a hard time, and others are up to their eyeballs in work.
My sister is in the higher-ups of a large healthcare corporation, and she has just told me a few weeks ago that they are actually short of IT personnel and are going to start hiring them straight out of college, when normally they would require previous work experience. Then again, Goldman Sachs seems to talk their own books, not to say they aren't a great firm...but, they aren't always right but seem to cause a significant short term impact on markets.
me and my colleagues actually are telecommuting.
i kinda own my own business though. but, judging from the possibilities available in dev communities around the net, i can say that there are decent number of telecommuting jobs for many programming positions. provided that you can prove experience and track record. elance is one.
what i think is, many people who always worked in corporate culture either dont know where to look telecommuting jobs, or look down when they find them.
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Cloud computing is not the same thing as Service Oriented Architecture in the same way that the interstate highway system isn't the same thing as an automobile.
My firm works with a group down in South America of all places and it has worked out extremely well. We attribute this to the lack of a major time difference, and that their english skills are for the most part good enough that there are no real communication issues. We make sure to spec out everything extremely well, follow up with them to ensure that they understand the specs, and we write the business logic, while they make the prety gui's.
They focus on the web aspect which they excel at, we focus on our business which is our job. I think outsourcing can be done, but it just has to be managed and divided well. I am not privy to their exact hourly rates, but from what I understand they make a fraction of what a good gui team would make here in the US.
I am not saying it works for everybody or every situation, but it can work. I feel the intimidation and fear as well, for while we deride the majority of outsourced developers right now as poor in quality, they will more than likely get up to speed in time and then those of us in the rich nations are going to have to reinvent ourselves or find a niche. Remember, there was a time when the Japanese were derided as making low quality products as well- now try to find an American made TV (hint: Zenith took the last train out of Dodge some time in the 90's IIRC).
We are being marginalized much like the journeyman and apprentices were during the advent of the industrial revolution, but at least this time for every programmer in the US that loses their job, potentially a whole family in the developing world can rise out of poverty and into the middle class.
everyone gets paid per their quality. there are indian coders that ask for $15 hourly, which is a phenomenonal rate for india. as you build up your reputation, you can ask even up to 40 hourly and get jobs from within u.s. even if you are outside united states.
my guess is that if u.s. it workers can lower their expectations a bit, they can survive anything. but then again they need to be not indebted with mortgages, kid college fees etc. but then again with the global recession looming these kind of commitments would be a problem anywhere in the world.
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Companies with foresight and vision will investigate those technologies that can increase their productivity AND the bottom line profit. Patching the dam only keeps it from breaking until later. You have to build a better one at some point.
Grid computing works. It's used in science research quite effectively. Cloud computing is coming no matter what people want.
There was a time when companies had their own power production facilities, now they don't (for the most part). As networking becomes faster (both latency and bandwidth) it will become cheaper to run your software somewhere else than running it in your building.
You weren't getting into janitorial business when you went into this field - it has just evolved that way over time (and naturally... as more and more people used computers then it was bound to become a utility).
At least for IT workers in the USA, UK, Australia, and Canada.
Occam's razor: off-shore labor is a lot cheaper, therefore employers will off-shore every possible job. If you do your job sitting in front of a computer, then your job can probably be off-shored - if not now, then certainly in the near future.
Furthermore, the simple laws of supply and demand dictate that the few jobs that are not off-shored, will have a glut of qualified applicants. The experienced developers who have their jobs off-shored, will clearly try to leverage their existing training and experience into the few remaining IT jobs that can not be easily off-shored. This causes a glut, and drives down wages.
The IT worker glut may be increased even more by improved automation of information system maintenance, standardization of software, and non-IT specialists who are increasingly sophisticated with information technology.
There can be nothing to stop this devastating trend, due to the following:
1) Corrupt USA politicians
2) USA IT workers are not willing to organize (please note: I am not suggesting a union)
3) Influential corporations have effectively distorted the issues
So there you go, it's as simple as that.
IMO: this trend is presently in it's infancy. The present trend has very little to do with the present economic slump. In fact, when the US economy recovers, this trend will accelerate even faster. The present situation for US IT workers is much better now, than it will be five years from now.
So, the reason for the reporting is "Most CIOs we interviewed expect to reduce expenditures for contractors and discretionary IT spending".
Or, put another way, "Most CIOs want OMGPonies to push those icky red numbers into the black".
It sounds great to say you plan to slash one of the biggest non-revenue departments on your books. That goes up in smoke the second the CIO realizes they can't even change their own printer toner, much less manage to do more "complex" tasks such as regular upgrades or proper backups.
And that doesn't even touch on "real" work, such as in-house app development. When we go there, the CIO may as well say that he plans to boost 3rd quarter revenue by striking oil on a large asteroid captured via the gravitational pull of the 2nd quarter's red ink.
However, the road is long and he who lives in the mind can easily go batters on the mind numbing crawl that is the highway.
Tell it like it is.
I just quit driving for a living 2 weeks ago. You get a fair bit of abuse on the road, and after a while it gets very difficult to externalise it. So I was going mad, bit by bit. Can't live with 'em, can't kill 'em. So the best thing for all concerned is to stop doing it.
Currently trying to "re-invent" my old IT skills, but I'm a long way back. Better than driving though. It may be better in the states, at least on long runs.
Too true mate - a company which I'm affiliated with but shall not name is going through a reorg right now. The reorg is surprisingly a good idea, and well-executed by the executives. However, I heard a middle manager explain it to a bunch of interns as "profit centers are called that because they generate profits, while cost centers only serve to drag a company down. That's why we're trying to minimize our cost centers as much as possible."
What made it extra funny is that a lot of the money freed up by the reorg is going into *new* "cost centers", and this middle manager himself works for a "cost center". I myself work for a "profit center", but honestly perform more of a functional role.
It's necessary to draw lines somewhere, and have accountants and accounting, but the fact of the matter is that some things are inherently hard to quantify. You look at the numbers but go with your gut.
...is that they only asked Fortune 1000 CIOs. Where do the majority of IT people work? I'll give you a hint: it ain't in F1000 organizations. I'm an independent contractor working in the small business sector. My clients have 50, maybe 100 total employees, $1-$10 million in revenue and no programmers on staff. Yet they need, or want, custom systems built. I have to turn away business and I see no end in sight.
Weird. I'm 24 and working as an IT manager, but I used to think that if I was going to do anything else, it would be driving (either delivery, or possibly part of the Royal Logistics Corps) because driving is one of the few other things that I enjoy other than computers. Any abuse I have ever had on the roads was due to my own (mis)conduct - apart from one strange time a couple of months ago where this guy came flying onto a roundabout in front of me, and immediately looked over and gave me the finger as if he knew fine he was going to be cutting someone up and in fact he does so regularly. If I'd been driving as fast as he was (which I used to do, but these days I'm more sensible in built up areas) it could have been pretty bad.
It's pretty easy to get road rage if you let your inner animal take control, but driving around listening to good music is sometimes quite an attractive proposition compared to being stuck in the office. I certainly thought so a couple of years ago when office politics and other factors were stressing me out, but I'm very happy with my job atm.
One problem is that I doubt driving pays very well compared to working in IT - especially with the insane fuel costs at the moment.
which is totally what she said
Re: Contracting:
Also, a lot of big companies do hiring freezes because of the economy, but then... still have things they need to get done and end up hiring contractors to do it.
Stupid, but there you have it.
Since we like to partition out at least one server per app since app vendors like to point fingers at each other....
That's the problem. Ask "Can you install this app as an ordinary user, without root privileges?" If the answer is no, then the TCO of the application just went way up.