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Solar Systems Like Ours Are Likely To Be Rare
KentuckyFC writes "Astronomers have discovered some 250 planetary systems beyond our own, many of them with curious properties. In particular, our theories of planet formation are challenged by 'hot Jupiters,' gas giants that orbit close to their parent stars. Current thinking is that gas giants can only form far away from stars because gas and dust simply gets blown away from the inner regions. Now astronomers have used computer simulations of the way planetary systems form to understand what is going on (abstract). It looks as if gas giants often form a long way from stars and then migrate inwards. That has implications for us: a migrating gas giant sweeps away all in its path, including rocky planets in the habitable zone. And that means that solar systems like ours are likely to be rare."
I didn't RTFA, but I will when I get home.
But on the surface it seems more to me that they're just saying that solar systems have a life cycle that is marked by the location of gas giants. I don't really think that means that our setup is rare.
But if I am misinterpreting the blurb and that is what they're proposing I would still say we need to hold our horses on any real judgement. We've found these solar systems because our current method of seeking these solar systems out is going to be more likely to find this kind of activity as opposed to what we have here at home. I think we're jumping the gun a bit on this one. I say let them work it out for a couple of more decades and even then we should be a bit more cautious about such sweeping statements.
Dedicated Cthulhu Cultist since 4523 BC.
when they have capability of detecting Earth > Venus > Mars size planets
they don't have much data do they to base their theory on?
Whatever... this is naval gazing and conjecture, no more credible than Intelligent Design. These guys have a few data points, they create a highly convoluted system that seems to account for their data points, then the moment they get more data, they start over. Again and again.
A good critical thinker should know when to say "We don't have a fucking clue" if they want to be taken seriously. But then, it's all about money, isn't it?
-1 Uncomfortable Truth
Yes, our theories were WAY off. No one predicted that these hot Jupiters were out there. Now they make up almost all of the planets we've detected to date. The point I was trying to make is that we can't detect solar systems like ours yet. Unless MAYBE it was in the alpha centaurus system and then MAYBE if it's Jupiter equivalent were to pass in front of one of the stars.
Please, tell me how many exosolar planets we've found with orbital periods greater than 365 days? How about 4000+ days like Jupiter?
Talking about how rare we are, without even another example, because we lack the ability, is just another theory that will fall - kinda like the planet formation theories that lacked the ability to predict "hot Jupiters". Now they have gone to the other extreme and theorized that EVERY solar system starts out with hot Jupiters. You know, because that is all we can presently detect.
How is that irrelevant? It's EXACTLY the "To a hammer, all looks like a nail" analogy I started with. Since that is all we have the ability to find at present, now all solar systems must start out that way?!?!?!?
This is the same mistake all the theorists made to start with, since all we had was our own solar system to base this upon. Now they have gone exactly the opposite way in their theories which is repeating the same mistake they initially made.
Yes, you adapt your theories based upon more and more observational data. But when you KNOW your observational data is limited to one subset of possible outcomes(which makes our own solar system damn near impossible to form) and you claim "victory", that's just very illogical to me.
Prof. Farnsworth - "Oh a lesson in not changing history from Mr I'm-My-Own-Grandpa!"
But Science is about proving things, not suggesting every possible idea and disproving them one by one.
Where on Earth did you get that idea? One of the first things you learn about science is that it doesn't prove anything, only disprove. The scientific method is a three step process:
You observe phenomenon, create a theory that explains it and makes some predictions and then test these predictions. If the observations don't match the predictions you either discard or refine the theory. If they do, then you keep it around until you find some new observations that don't match up with the predictions.
The reason creationism is not science is that it makes no testable predictions. Whether it is true or not can not be tested and so is an irrelevant question to science.
I am TheRaven on Soylent News
You and colmore are both right. Colmore beautifuly summarized how science actually operates. Your observations reflect understandings gleaned from the philosophy of science, in particular Karl Popper's falsifiability criteria. Popper developed this idea to show how one can delineate science from pseudo-science. It is a valuable philosophical insight and is useful as a criteria of demarcation between science and unscientific ideas. But, it is not a good foundation for understanding the actual methodologies used by science. Actual science proceeds based on some assumptions such as the uniformity of natural causes that cannot be proven, but which underlay belief in the validity of probabilistic induction and the idea that science illuminates "truth" in some sense and gives us greater knowledge of reality.
As a working scientist: no he (colmore) didn't. Although his intentions were good.
In science you make some assumptions when creating your theory, but if you find evidence that indicates those assumptions are likely false then it's time to make a new theory. That INCLUDES such assumptions as the universe being consistent.
An excellent example of just that idea is quantum mechanics. The universe, it seems, isn't consistent in quite the way that classical physics thought it was: a cause doesn't always produce the same effect. When we discovered this, we designed quantum mechanics to take this aspect into account.
Both you and colmore use the word "prove." Science is not about proving things, and of course you cannot prove assumptions, or anything else, for that matter. In science there is no proof, because there is always the possibility that you will find a counterexample.