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What Will Linux Be Capable Of, 3 Years Down the Road?
An anonymous reader writes "In a prediction of the open-source future, InfoWeek speculates on What Linux Will Look Like In 2012. The most outlandish scenario foresees Linux forsaking its free usage model to embrace more paid distros where you get free Linux along with (much-needed) licenses to use patent-restricted codecs. Also predicted is an advance for the desktop based on — surprise — good acceptance for KDE 4. Finally, Linux is seen as making its biggest imprint not on the PC, but on mobile devices, eventually powering 40 million smartphones and netbooks. Do you agree? And what do you see for Linux in 4 years?"
I'll go out on a limb here and guess that Linux will still look like a penguin.
Let us not become the evil that we deplore.
1998 Nope
2000 Nope
2002 Nope
2004 Nope
2006 Nope
2008 Nope
2011 YESSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSS!
based on â" surprise â" good acceptance for KDE 4.
Definitely agree there. KDE4 is going to dramatically improve very quickly. They've made a huge development investment in the underlying libraries, and that will come to fruition this year (and already has somewhat with KDE 4.1). My impression is that it's going to get better. Couple that with a maturing X.org, and you have the makings of a beautiful desktop.
No it's not predictable. I am not (well at least not trying to be) flamebaiting and/or trolling but given this is Linux we are talking about FLOSS and innovation, so we can't possible know.
Innovation wouldn't be innovation if we allready knew what is going to happen in three years, now would it?
Here be signatures
Will it be capable of, correcting grammar?
Sony ha
Linux hasn't had any major changes in the past three years, why would you think it'll have any in the next three?
Wait ... are you saying that the Linux kernel will remain free in the future, but that people will pay for extras on top of that, including commercial software in some cases? That is just ... insane! What barking madman would even conceive of such a concept?
Incidentally, how do you go from what that article actually says:
Expect to see a three-way split among different versions of Linux. Not different distributions per se, but three basic usage models: ... For-pay ... Free to use ... Free/libre
...to "Linux forsaking its free usage model"? What are you, running for Congress?
Breakfast served all day!
Linux distros into one category.
In four years Distros made to be user-friendly like Ubuntu will probably be heavier on system requirements but nearing the ease of use of Windows (IE easier driver and plugin installs as some are still a bit touch-and-go)
Distros like Puppy will still be lightweight and have little change to fit on those old Pentium 2s you just can't bear to part with.
Distros like Gentoo will still be hardcore users only with every option available only after heavy config and compiles.
I think usability for the average user will improve on the "fluffy" side of linux, but a lot of the distros do exactly what they're made to.
Well, back to rejecting software patent applications.
So THIS is what the Mayans have been predicting. Linux calls forth Armageddon in 2012. Wonderful.
Linux already has full support for the ntfs file system. All you need to do is install ntfs-3g, and specify that as the partition's file system.
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Most Linux systems are already embedded systems (phones and the like). These far outstrip Linux usage in desktops and servers. The trend will only grow as more and more phones switch to Linux and desktop usage stays about the same.
Engineering is the art of compromise.
Sounds like somebody needs an upgrade.
I hope it doesn't become a mess of binary drivers. Binary drivers are one of the worst things happening to Linux. They ruin the stability and the usefulness of hardware. As fas as I am concerned, they are not the pragmatic choice. I consider an idealist to be a pragmatist who thinks about the future. I have found that the "pragmatic' choice always comes back to bite me, at which time it stops being pragmatic.
Anyway, enough of that rant. On to CODECS. That depends on the patent systems in various countries. Currently FFMPEG has had a history of producing extremely find implementations of CODECS. They sometimes lag behind on the very newest ones, but their more mature ones suprass all others in terms of quality and speed. And they generally get better with time. Anyway, software patents don't exist everywhere and they are unlikely to do so within 3 years. So, it looks like codecs will remain free and FREE for a while yet.
SJW n. One who posts facts.
root@localhost:~#
They'll remove SMP support?
Why would they?
I can see linux being on a 2-4 GB flash card and the "computer" being the same size and the entire device running inside your tv, LCD picture frames, microwave oven, toaster, refrigator, dishwasher, washing machine, dryer, or your air conditioner. The price for the computer and storage will be like $2-5 on the bulk side so that cost has to be able to be hidden in the products. Linux'll be running all sorts of things that you never really figured even needed a computer per se or even 2-4 GB of storage. What the heck does my dishwasher or toaster need 2 Gb of storage for? Well, we'd find out when it's "cheap enough" to through in everything. Licensing and cost is what'll get Linux in the door and keep MS out. MS just can't afford to give away MS embedded edition.
Of course Linux will run on things like cell phones and DVRs as well, but you'll shortly find it running things like McDonalds' toys as well. What could a McDonalds' Toy use Linux for? I haven't a clue, but, once the hardware is cheap enough, we'll find out.
It doesn't have to be huge. Take it from a guy a year older than you: learn Linux programming, learn it well. Get an internship with it in college. This makes your resume better than that of the college-educated code monkeys CS departments turn out nowadays who've never used anything but Java on Windows.
Base window manager is irrelevant. Users don't care whether it's KDE or Gnome. Behold the Cube! Behold the wobbly windows. Behold the 3D tiling! Behold I say!
Show potential Linux users a demo of that floating cube, and you will ship millions of Linux boxes. I have observed this effect, first hand. If you've got a business selling Linux boxes and you don't have such a demo set up in shop, you are wasting your time. You think OSX got where it is because of its Kernel features?
May the Maths Be with you!
And the US Supreme Court will rule that software is not patentable, software is copyrightable but EULA's are 100% unenforcable. And DRM will be outlawed.
And Microsoft, the RIAA, and most of the telecom industry will be broken up for various illegal activities, and forced to reform as smaller non-profit organizations with strict oversight.
Maybe I'll even have a date by then.
"there just aren't enough people interested, for example, to allow linux boxes to be sold at places like Circuit City, and I don't think that will change in 4 years."
Linux boxes ARE being sold at places like Circuit City, and people like them. Asus eeepc and aspire, hp small notepad, etc.
As to the rest? Not equilibrium yet. Linux is growing in datacenters; support for large SMP will improve (especially in management; I'd look for the most growth in virtualization). The "GUI" will improve also. There should be growth with 3D drivers (especially AMD(ATI) chipsets). Intel Larrabee should inspire growth in super-computing.
OpenOffice.org/Firefox/other standard applications are coming along nicely. But, with improved 3D will come standard 3D desktop *and* application support (currently, only available with nVidia's hardware and drivers). This should also be possible with ATI and Intel graphic stacks. In turn, this should inspire extra visual support in applications (think real-time graphics rendered from a spreadsheet). Also, I would expect growth in media transcoding.
What should remain stable is the CLI interface, and base software (VIM should still be VI, with enhancements, GCC should improve, but not be radically different, LaTeX will still be kicking, etc.)
Just another "Cubible(sic) Joe" 2 17 3061
100,000 packages in Debian.
Warning: this article may contain humor, sarcasm, parody, and perhaps even irony. Read at your own risk.
network adapter support is problem free? I still hear about a lot of problems with wireless nics. Granted they can often be worked around, but getting wireless working without being flaky is far from brainless. Windows isn't much better here, but I think my mom would figure it out in windows before she would figure it out on linux.
Video card support is good? I'd call it mediocre at best... You can spend 100 bucks or more on a card and you don't have drivers which can reliably utilize that power you paid for. 3d? Possibly, but 2d is more likely. Compositing? That's a maybe also.
I'm a Gentoo user. I actively avoid using windows, but I feel I have a realistic outlook on linux. Some around here do not.
Overclockers
Whatever happens, there'll be more people using Linux-based OSes in 3/4 years. However, there's a long way to go before it can properly overtake Windows, IMO: there are several major problems that stop GNU/Linux becoming the ideal consumer desktop OS.
In short, devs need to really get their fingers out and concentrate on creating a truly kick-ass operating system that'll work out of the box on practically any machine you throw it at. This is what led Apple out of its slump in the mid-90s - if the FOSS community can do it now, when the popularity of FOSS is booming, it will truly be a force for Monkey Boy to reckon with.
Those using pirated Tinysoft signatures(TM) are a real threat to society and should all be thrown in jail.
...or is the author basically predicting that in 2012 we'll have the things we have now?
We currently have pay distros, free distros, and libre distros. KDE 4 already exists. There are already Linux netbooks, and major OEM preinstalls. In the future apparently we'll have Gmail and OpenOffice.
The author also MAGICALLY predicts storage costs will go down.
Linux will also be on servers, and support virtualization.
Will all this stuff happen before 2012?
I'd say so, considering it is all true today.
http://blindscribblings.com - Tasty pop-culture in conceptual fashion.
Who said I was trying to find a scapegoat to pin the blame on??
It doesn't do what I want it to (yet), therefore it's useless for me. Simple as that.
There is no -1 Disagree mod. Slashdot.org/faq defines mod options. USE IT.
Whether you like it or not, GNOME will be the big one, because nobody controls it.
That makes sense. Just like no businesses would ever use Windows because Microsoft controls it.
Trolltech never controlled KDE and Nokia can't either. Same as Novell can't control Gnome.
Here's a conversation I found from a fedora discussion:
Non linear ogg editor/ screencast helper
Status: Proposed
Summary of idea: Still we are missing a good non linear editor for ogg videos. This can be a simple GUI based application to do non linear editing of ogg. Like cutting, mixing the videos. Adding still frames to the video etc. Though this is not a project to be finished within 2-3 months, but we should be able to have a basic application running to do simple edits. May be having feature of upload videos to fedoratv or integrate itself with recordmydesktop to get screencasts directly. I am looking for more ideas on this.
Contacts: KushalDas kushaldas AT fedoraproject {NOSPAM} DOT org
Notes: Recommended choice of language is Python or C
ValentTurkovic: I have 2 suggestions; First is to try and resurrect Diva Project who started as GSC project in 2006. Second is to work with Pitivi Project because it is on a good path and has ogg editing functionality and easy enough interface. To get an overview of this Diva Project rise and fall please read these two posts. UPDATE: There are two projects that look promissing: saya-videoeditor [2] and myvideoeditor [3]
So between these and Cinelerra's successor, Lumiera, I'm sure 4 years will be more than enough to have an actually usable professional Video Editor for Linux.
And I think that these 4 years will give Krita and GIMP the time they need to become full-featured and more user-friendly, respectively.
(And don't get me started on WINE, these guys are advancing fast!)
I think the problem is that we've been given a pretty amazing gift by the early pioneers who (of course) didn't grow up with it, like people increasingly are. I think the job was in a pretty big way its own reward, at the time, and that prompted more dedicated work for less (apparent) reward. but now we're becoming like some bratty kid who's given a really nice car and never changing the oil, throwing a bunch of bumper-stickers on it to improve how it looks/make a statement, and then being all annoyed when the 2nd sunroof we cut out of the ceiling starts to pull the whole roof off.