Slashdot Mirror


Scott Adams's Political Survey of Economists

Buffaloaf writes "Scott Adams, the creator of Dilbert, wanted to have unbiased information about which presidential candidate would be better for the economy, so he financed his own survey of 500 economists. He gives a bit more detail about the results in a CNN editorial, along with disclosure of his own biases and guesses as to the biases of the economists who responded."

11 of 939 comments (clear)

  1. Wait .... by gstoddart · · Score: 4, Interesting

    Now we actually turn to Scott Adams for actual unbiased information about economics? Or, at least an attempt to explain the biases up-front? That just hurts my head!! :-P

    Where's the punch line?

    But, seriously, good on Scott Adams for actually doing this on his own. I think had anyone else tried to do this, we'd all be screaming loudly that they were inherently biased and had an agenda.

    No matter how it goes, Adams will get more material for the strips. ;-)

    Cheers

    --
    Lost at C:>. Found at C.
    1. Re:Wait .... by PlatyPaul · · Score: 4, Interesting
      If you're looking for a bit more "punch line", I suggest checking in next week.

      From TFA (the 2nd one, Scott's blog):

      Some of you will wonder how reliable a bunch of academics are when it comes to answering real life questions about the economy. You might prefer to know what CEOs think. But remember that CEOs are paid to be advocates for their stockholders, not advocates for voters. Asking CEOs what should be done about the economy is like asking criminals for legal advice. More on that this week.

      --
      Misery loves company. Online misery loves unsuspecting random strangers.
    2. Re:Wait .... by jmorris42 · · Score: 4, Interesting

      > You get much better information from someone you know is biased than when their bias is hidden, even if your own biases don't match.

      Exactly. Which is why the MSM will continue to bleed until one of two things occur:

      1. They admit their biases like newspapers of old did. I want to see "Wolf Blitzer (D)" on the screen. Then he would be freed from the transparent lie that he is objective and could get on with it. We as viewers could then accept what he does and where he is coming from when he is 'reporting.'

      2. Really become objective. Primetime news with real journalism where you get the who what when why and how without mixing in commentary and bloviating. No talking points, no spin, no talking heads shouting, almost no horserace coverage. Real backgrounders on issues and where candidates have voted in the past, where they stand now and their explanation for any change.

      Number two has less odds of occuring than monkeys flying from my butt so if the MSM plans on surviving it is option 1 or bust.

      --
      Democrat delenda est
    3. Re:Wait .... by SatanicPuppy · · Score: 4, Interesting

      Tell it to Milton Friedman.

      Economists are (nearly) all in favor of free trade, which is generally considered to be conservative.

      Some believe in the government using money to drive the economy by investing in local projects and social programs(a la Keynes), and this is pretty "liberal". Others believe in low taxes and small government, which is "conservative".

      I think the real problem is that the true fiscal conservatives are all independents these days, so while it's clearly acceptable to be an economist and a democrat, it's not so acceptable to be an economist and a republican. If you add up the libertarians, independents, and republicans you come pretty close to a 50/50 split. That's pretty representative of the academic split between Keynes and Friedman these days.

      If you're Keynesian, you believe that government spending and stimulus is a good thing (and are thus more inclined to the Dems), and if you're more inclined to Friedman (small government, low taxes, non-intervention), then you're pretty much forced to the Independents, since the Republicans are (for the last 20 years) irresponsible spenders, and that's hard to justify if you're an economist.

      I think also academics and other intelligentsia types tend to skew democrat (since the dems don't call them elitist for doing all that thinking), so that will add to the bias as well.

      By and large, I think it's pretty clear that the majority of economists are solidly pro-Obama...Even the independents went for Obama by more than 2 to 1 (according to the breakdown), and on the rest of the issues, the independents side with Obama on everything but taxes and international trade (I myself like Obama, but I think his stance on international trade sucks.)

      --
      ad logicam Claiming a proposition is false because it was presented as the conclusion of a fallacious argument.
    4. Re:Wait .... by Sj0 · · Score: 4, Interesting

      Of 7 years since WWII that had reduction in the overall debt, 5 were done under a Democratic president, and 5 were done under a Democratic house and congress. The last president to reduce the debt was Kennedy, under a Democratic house and congress.

      Until Reagan, the trend of the debt as a % of gdp was downward. During his time and George H. Bush, the trend has been massively upwards. Bill Clinton stopped that trend and reversed it. For the first time since Reagan, in 2000 the debt as a % of gdp actually fell. With the induction of George W. Bush, the trend returned to Reagan trends of increase in debt as % of gdp.

      Since the introduction of Reganomics into the Republican doctrine, the debt has increased 10,000%. A full third of that came about during the tenure of George W. Bush, during a time of a Republican Congress and Senate.

      Science works, bitches!

      --
      It's been a long time.
    5. Re:Wait .... by lupis42 · · Score: 4, Interesting

      As a liberal, I am massively in favor of people's right to own arms (even just 'cause they're cool and shiny), against allowing companies (or individuals) to undertake large projects without assessing the long term impact on public resources (such as the environment) and many other ideas. I have a fair amount of real world experience with some of them, with others, I have to trust my sources. When information is presented which contradicts those sources, I adapt my opinions. But I digress, the point is, Democrats certainly foist a set of values on people, as do Republicans. Even Libertarians, by not enforcing certain values, implicitly enforce counterbalancing values. For example, refusing to break up monopolies is to implicitly encourage them, inasmuch as they are a natural tendency of some markets.

      I believe that the individuals right to property is very important, but I don't extend that to artificially protected entities such as corporations, and I don't believe that the right to that property inherently includes uses of it that impact others.

      For example, I believe that you have the right to own a Hummer, but that doesn't give you the right to drive it on the public road. For that, you have to demonstrate that you are capable of driving a vehicle that is more likely to kill other people in an accident, and presents a hazard to navigation for other drivers, safely. Something akin to, but not as difficult to obtain as, a CDL.

      Wow, that was a long rant. Anyway, Liberal != Libertarian. Live and let live is a philosophy, and there are people who would force it on you just like any other. At the end of the day, the use of the word Liberal you speak of comes from people who, in the main, were trying to distance themselves from those ideas. The people so labeled simply wound up up keeping the label.

  2. Re:The majority of economists are Democrats? by VolciMaster · · Score: 4, Interesting

    Just about every University only teaches Keynesian Economics which goes well with the Democratic platform.

    Funny, I had Keynesian Economics taught, and always saw it aligning with Conservatism and Libertarianism more than Liberalism.

  3. Obama favored, 59-31% by jamie · · Score: 5, Interesting

    The plain fact is that the economists surveyed think Obama would be better for the economy, by almost two-to-one. It's kind of sad how Adams had to dress the fact up by noting how many were Democrats vs. Republicans, essentially declaring it a tie:

    ...not surprisingly, 88% of Democratic economists think Obama would be best, while 80% of Republican economists pick McCain. ...

    The economists in our survey favor Obama on 11 of the top 13 issues. But keep in mind that 48 percent are Democrats and only 17 percent are Republicans.

    Despite his own strong evidence that the economists were being objective -- their own income levels did not correlate to whether they thought the rich should be taxed -- he doesn't even tell us the plain fact until after he dresses it up.

    His CNN writeup was an excuse to repeat three times that he would have his taxes raised by Obama. Well yeah, he makes zillions of dollars. No mention of Obama's plan to cut taxes, for almost everyone, by more than McCain's plan.

    I look forward to his next survey of economists, in which he asks which is better economically, capitalism or communism, and then weights the results before revealing them. ("Not surprisingly, 88% of market-favoring economists think capitalism would be best, while 80% of socialist economists pick communism. Our economists favor capitalism on 11 of the top 13 issues, but keep in mind that" etc.)

  4. Tax bracket by Skapare · · Score: 5, Interesting

    From the CNN article:

    Moneywise, I can't support a candidate who promises to tax the bejeezus out of my bracket, ...

    Then maybe you are in the wrong tax bracket. Try being in mine for a while. I think most people would prefer to be in a tax bracket that gets taxed like that and keep the rest, rather than where they are now.

    --
    now we need to go OSS in diesel cars
  5. Re:Wow by weston · · Score: 4, Interesting

    Add to that, researching the 2005 bill that forced FM/FM to give out loans based on racial profiles instead of financial stability, and you'll have a good idea who to blame.

    I'm gonna call bullshit unless you can back this up with a link or two including one pointing to the actual legislation.

      Loans favoring people of a certain income class and demographic with interest rates that might not otherwise be available to them under conventional market proceedures, aren't particularly controversial, but *requiring* them to loan to a candidate who wouldn't qualify under normal market conditions would be.

    However, anyone familiar knows that "normal market conditions" in 2005 included No Income, No Job, No Asset loans, which should make one *highly* skeptical about the assertion that congress twisted lender's arms.

    Who was in charge of Fannie Mae when they "misreported" $10.8 billion in 2006?

    The connection of Fannie Mae to Walter Mondale's campaign manager is supposed to be evidence of Democratic malfeasance here? It's been 20 years since Mondale ran. Focusing on Enron and its spectacular collapse that took down a colluding Big 5 accounting firm instead of FM's *understating* their earnings? I guess that's evidence of a massive media conspiracy... especially since the media DID report on problems with FM.

    For those too lazy to find out, consider that Obama, despite being in the Senate for only 2 years is the #1 recipient of donations from FM/FM at $112,000.

    A bit of further research reveals that this is out a total of a recent $390 million in lobbying dollars. So, Obama's the largest recipient... at .02% of FM donation dollars. I guess that means he's tight with FM, although he's also raised more money than anybody else from just about everybody.

    "Fannie Mae Chairman Franklin Raines last week

    That "last week" has got to be pre-2004, then, since that's when he was pushed out over the accounting issues.

    called for continued efforts by Fannie Mae and mortgage lenders to reach out to those 'at the margins' of home ownership. Blacks, Hispanics and immigrants trying to buy homes would be a major focus of outreach, Raines said." Raines made no mention of assistance for the millions of white families who have difficulty purchasing home

    Raines also made no mention of his support for the troops, ending Islamic Terrorism, and the state of Israel, which means he is against these things.

    And yet

  6. Re:Interesting Read by Vancorps · · Score: 4, Interesting

    Where are you getting your unemployment numbers from? Clinton started with high unemployment and ended with the lowest unemployment. Growth was consistent. Compare that with Bush where there was a clear increase in unemployment when he took office and even now hasn't recovered.

    I won't make you take my word for it though. Link here

    All of this also coincides with salary decreases which are only now starting to recover although when adjusted for the fact that the dollar is worth 30% less now than it was four years ago and reality doesn't seem to reflect your statements. Can you please support it in some way? Carter and Reagan years were definitely not the era of responsible spending but Clinton left office with a balanced budget with a projected surplus so it is hard for anyone to take your argument seriously off hand.

    Please enlighten me as I'm clearly missing some key information.