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The Supercomputer Race

CWmike writes "Every June and November a new list of the world's fastest supercomputers is revealed. The latest Top 500 list marked the scaling of computing's Mount Everest — the petaflops barrier. IBM's 'Roadrunner' topped the list, burning up the bytes at 1.026 petaflops. A computer to die for if you are a supercomputer user for whom no machine ever seems fast enough? Maybe not, says Richard Loft, director of supercomputing research at the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colo. The Top 500 list is only useful in telling you the absolute upper bound of the capabilities of the computers ... It's not useful in terms of telling you their utility in real scientific calculations. The problem with the rankings: a decades-old benchmark called Linpack, which is Fortran code that measures the speed of processors on floating-point math operations. One possible fix: Invoking specialization. Loft says of petaflops, peak performance, benchmark results, positions on a list — 'it's a little shell game that everybody plays. ... All we care about is the number of years of climate we can simulate in one day of wall-clock computer time. That tells you what kinds of experiments you can do.' State-of-the-art systems today can simulate about five years per day of computer time, he says, but some climatologists yearn to simulate 100 years in a day."

43 of 158 comments (clear)

  1. The true best measurement by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Funny

    Is how many libraries of congress it can read in a fortnight.

    1. Re:The true best measurement by ari_j · · Score: 2, Interesting

      Define "read."

  2. Re:Weather Day After Tomorrow by Fishbulb · · Score: 4, Funny

    Don't hold your breath; it'll disrupt the predictions.

  3. Simulation by gringer · · Score: 4, Funny

    Simulate 100 years of climate in a day? Here's my code:

    echo -e "sunny\nrainy\ncloudy" | rl -rc 36525

    --
    Ask me about repetitive DNA
    1. Re:Simulation by Kneo24 · · Score: 2, Funny

      Relive! The machines have sentience! RUUUUUUN!

    2. Re:Simulation by monsul · · Score: 3, Informative

      http://ch.tudelft.nl/~arthur/rl/
      From the webpage: rl is a command-line tool that reads lines from an input file or stdin, randomizes the lines and outputs a specified number of lines. It does this with only a single pass over the input while trying to use as little memory as possible.
      Didn't know about it either. Seems marginally useful

      --
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    3. Re:Simulation by GroeFaZ · · Score: 2, Interesting

      You jest, but that's exactly the point. "Simulated years per day" is about as meaningless a metric as it gets, because, as you proved, that number depends on the complexity of the underlying climate model, and also on how well the software was written, i.e. if it is optimized for both the hardware and the model to be computed.

      Both these factors are hard/impossible to control and to standardize, and the only factor that does not change is the actual hardware and its peak/sustained performance, so it's the only sensible metric.

      --
      The grass is always greener on the other side of the light cone.
  4. Financial modeling and spying better funded by Ritz_Just_Ritz · · Score: 3, Insightful

    Sadly, while predicting the weather and better understanding it ultimately helps a lot of people, I suspect a LOT more computing power is thrown at more mundane things like predicting where the financial markets are going to be based on a gazillion data inputs. Probably even better funded are the vast datacenters around the world that fondle communications and other data for the spymasters. I doubt those computing resources are represented in the annual supercomputing lists. :)

    1. Re:Financial modeling and spying better funded by Quarters · · Score: 3, Funny

      But, in a roundabout way the financial market simulator will ultimately help the weather simulator's performance. Everyone knows that business apps are written in VB. That means the financial simulator folks need MUCH more powerful supercomputers to run their code at anything close to appreciable speed. That same machine will run well coded weather apps blazingly fast!

    2. Re:Financial modeling and spying better funded by gadget+junkie · · Score: 2, Interesting

      Sadly, while predicting the weather and better understanding it ultimately helps a lot of people, I suspect a LOT more computing power is thrown at more mundane things like predicting where the financial markets are going to be based on a gazillion data inputs. Probably even better funded are the vast datacenters around the world that fondle communications and other data for the spymasters. I doubt those computing resources are represented in the annual supercomputing lists. :)

      There are a couple of misperceptions here.

      Both the problems described, modeling years of weather models or modeling financial instruments, suffer from a definite flaw: they are not mathematical problems in the "high school" sense of the world, i.e. it is not possible to prove that there is only one finite solution that is demonstrably right.
      Financial models are "fit to reality": you take a long time series, make a few wild guesses, throw it into a Cray-2, and look what the model says. Lather, rinse, repeat. they work, most of the times.....Bank regulators just recently allowed banks to discard simpler risk controls if they proved that they had a financial modeling tool that did not get their accepted measure of risk wrong more that 3 days out of 120, and these models were mostly sophisticated mathematicals and statistical implementations....and then Lehman goes belly up. Mind you, they were using computer modeling as well.

      [DISCLAIMER: I've been working in finance since 1988, and I believe equally in advanced financial modeling, the tooth fairy and Santa]

      Weather modelling in yearly time scales suffers from the same flaw, in my view: unless you have a long enough set of possible inputs , it's not verifiable in reality.
      If I try to make prediction over next week, I only need a week to see if my model is horribly wrong. If I want to test it in different seasons, 1-2 years can give me a good enough hint about the accuracy of a model.
      If I am trying to predict average weather changes on a 20 years time scale, I need 20 years of historical data to get 1 (one) result. another year to get two, etc. exaggerating a lot, it's like modeling to predict red or black at the roulette: 50% of the models will get it right the first time, and 25% over two tries. definitely not enough to know if it works.

      --
      "If a boss demands loyalty, give him integrity. But if he demands integrity, give him loyalty." (John Boyd, 1927-1997)
  5. Flops not useful? by zippthorne · · Score: 4, Informative

    But.. The whole point is to test the model, and the models change, don't they? Surely we're not just simulating more "years" of climate with the current batch, but improving resolution, making fewer simplifying assumptions, and hopefully, finding ways to do the exact same operations with fewer cycles.

    How can you possibly evaluate supercomputers in any other way except how many mathematical operations can be performed in some reference time? And.. some serial metric if the math is highly parallel, since just reducing the size of vectors in those cases wouldn't actually result in those flops being useful for other tasks.

    --
    Can you be Even More Awesome?!
    1. Re:Flops not useful? by geekoid · · Score: 4, Interesting

      That's just the problem, people want to hear raw numbers, but those are useless.
      How well can it do the specific task it needs to do is the actual question. It's a hard one, to be sure.

      --
      The Kruger Dunning explains most post on /. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning%E2%80%93Kruger_effect
    2. Re:Flops not useful? by corsec67 · · Score: 5, Informative

      Flops wouldn't test how well the interconnects work.

      Since you say "increase the resolution of the model", you are expanding the size of the model, and how much data must be used by all of the nodes of the computer.

      Since how important the interconnect properties are is dependent on the model, with almost no communication needed, like for F@H, to a problem that needs all of the nodes to have access to a single shared set of data, it would be very hard to quantify performance in one number.

      Unfortunately, there are more than a few fields where marketers want a single number to advertise in a "mine is bigger than yours" competition, and come up with a metric that is almost worthless.

      --
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    3. Re:Flops not useful? by Salamander · · Score: 4, Informative

      How can you possibly evaluate supercomputers in any other way except how many mathematical operations can be performed in some reference time?

      Simple: you evaluate how much actual work it can perform across the entire system per unit time, where "actual work" means a mix of operations similar to some real application of interest. The whole problem here is that practically no real application is as purely focused on arithmetic operations as Linpack. Even the people who developed Linpack know this, which is why they developed the HPCC suite as its successor. It's composed of seven benchmarks, including some (e.g. stream triad) that mostly stress memory and some (e.g. matrix transpose) that mostly stress interconnects. If you want to get an idea how your application will perform on various machines, you determine what mix of those seven numbers best approximates your application, assign appropriate weights, and then apply those weights to the vendor numbers. Then you negotiate with the two or three most promising vendors to run your application for real. SPEC should have put an end to simplistic "single figure of merit" comparisons, or if not them then TPC, SPC, etc. Sadly, though, there's still always someone who comes along and tries to revive the corpse.

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      Slashdot - News for Herds. Stuff that Splatters.
    4. Re:Flops not useful? by jd · · Score: 4, Informative
      To be honest, I thought most people already knew about and used HPC Challenge, which produces 7 different benchmarks covering different types of mathematical problem, memory bandwidth and communications bandwidth. I also imagined people would use MPI-IO for measuring MPI performance, that the numbers on the Top500 was simply because it's hard to track a vast number of stats in a meaningful way.

      Of course, if it's actually the case that people are dumb, lazy or in marketing, then that would explain why we don't get a full range of stats, even though the tools have existed for many years and are certainly widely known.

      --
      It's a small world and it smells funny; I'd buy another if it wasn't for the money; Take back what I paid (SoM)
    5. Re:Flops not useful? by rockmuelle · · Score: 2, Interesting

      "How can you possibly evaluate supercomputers in any other way except how many mathematical operations can be performed in some reference time? "

      It's much more subtle than that. Most programs, including weather simulations, use a large amount of data stored on disk and in RAM. The problem with LINPACK as a benchmark is that, for all practical purposes, it ignores this cost by using a few very specific linear algebra operations that have very low communication/computation ratios. The LINPACK number is only relevant if your program is primarily based on operations that have this characteristic.

      Unfortunately, most scientific codes (weather simulations included, of course), have evolved past simple implementations based on dense matrix-matrix multiplication (the particular kernel that gives the peak performance number) and include a number of steps that perform closer to the speed of the memory bus than the speed of the processor (sparse matrix operations, which make simulations tractable with millions of variables work this way). There's also the simple fact that very few programmers are even aware of the techniques required to achieve even 50% of peak performance on a kernel as simple as matrix-matrix multiplication. And, the cost of getting past 50% in programmer time is rather high. So, even if scientific codes could be optimally implemented, there's almost no chance they are.

      Most people in HPC (myself included) have reached the point where the Top 500 list is a fun curiosity, but has little relevance to actual practice of supercomputing. Optimizing memory bandwidth and interconnects is much more important than raw FLOPS.

      Still, I applaud the Roadrunner project. They took some serious risks to pull it off and created a very impressive computer. It's too bad that it will most likely be a one-off implementation (yeah, you can buy QS-22s from IBM, but I doubt they'll be around for too long).

      -Chris

    6. Re:Flops not useful? by ceoyoyo · · Score: 2, Informative

      Actually, Linpack is not embarrassingly parallel so it DOES test how well the interconnects work, to some extent.

      The top 500 list is interesting, but if you're building a supercomputer to make a certain rank you have too much money and you should really give me some.

      You build a supercomputer to perform some task or class of tasks. If it gets you on the list, cool.

    7. Re:Flops not useful? by RulerOf · · Score: 2, Funny

      But.. The whole point is to test the model, and the models change, don't they?

      Alas, no. It's suspected that the closer your computer climbs to the top of this list, the larger your penis becomes.

      --
      Boot Windows, Linux, and ESX over the network for free.
  6. Benchmark your application by straponego · · Score: 4, Informative

    A quality HPC vendor will give you the opportunity to benchmark your application before you buy a system or cluster. Most will have standard codes installed, but you should also be able to arrange for a login to build and run your own code on their test clusters. This is the only way to guarantee you're getting the best bang per buck, because the bottleneck in your particular applications may be memory, IO, interconnect, CPU, chipset, libraries, OS... An HPC cluster can be a big purchase, and it performance and reliability can make or break careers. Don't trust generalized benchmarks unless you know that they accurately reflect your workload on the hardware you'll be purchasing.

  7. Re:Weather Day After Tomorrow by smittyoneeach · · Score: 4, Funny

    The mondo-flop race,
    As the hair on your face,
    You yearn to displace,
    So do it with grace.
    Burma Shave

    --
    Get thee glass eyes, and, like a scurvy politician, seem to see things thou dost not.--King Lear
  8. I agree by friedmud · · Score: 3, Informative

    I write massively parallel scientific code that runs on these supercomputers for a living... and this is what I've been preaching all along.

    The thing about RoadRunner and others (such as Red Storm at Sandia) is that they are special pieces of hardware that run highly specialized operating systems. I can say from experience that these are an _enormous_ pain in the ass to code for... and reaching anything near the theoretical computing limit on these machines with real world engineering applications is essentially impossible... not too mention all of the extra time it costs you in just getting your application to compile on the machine and debug it...

    My "day-to-day" supercomputer is a 2048 processor machine made up of generic Intel cores all running a slightly modified version of Suse Linux. This is a great machine for development _and_ for execution. My users have no trouble using my software and the machine... because it's just Linux.

    When looking at a supercomputer I always think in terms of utility... not in terms of Flops. It's for this reason that I think the guys down at the Texas Advanced Computing Center got it right when they built Ranger ( http://www.tacc.utexas.edu/resources/hpcsystems/#constellation ). It's about a half a petaflop... but guess what? It runs Linux! And is actually made up of a bunch of Opteron cores... the machine itself is also a huge, awesome looking beast (I've been inside it... the 2 huge Infiniband switches are really something to see). I haven't used it myself (yet), but I have friends working at TACC and everyone really likes the machine a lot. It definitely strikes that chord between ultra-powerful and ultra-useful.

    Friedmud

    1. Re:I agree by Abreu · · Score: 3, Funny

      My "day-to-day" supercomputer is a 2048 processor machine made up of generic Intel cores all running a slightly modified version of Suse Linux.

      We all envy you.

      --
      No sig for the moment.
    2. Re:I agree by CronoCloud · · Score: 3, Insightful

      The thing about RoadRunner and others (such as Red Storm at Sandia) is that they are special pieces of hardware that run highly specialized operating systems.

      from http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IBM_Roadrunner

      The Roadrunner uses Red Hat Enterprise Linux along with Fedora as its operating systems and it's managed with xCAT distributed computing software.

    3. Re:I agree by jd · · Score: 3, Funny

      If they'd finished the Berlin GUI, you could have played one hell of a game of Quake.

      --
      It's a small world and it smells funny; I'd buy another if it wasn't for the money; Take back what I paid (SoM)
  9. Non-story... by Kjella · · Score: 2, Insightful

    ...ever looked at gaming benchmarks? Server benchmarks? Productivity benchmarks? Rendering benchmarks? In fact, any kind of benchmark? Seen how they all differ depending on the product and test run? Same with supercomputers, you got some synthetic benchmarks, and you got some real world benchmarks. But the weather simulation may not be a relevant benchmark at all if you're doing nuke simulations or gene decoding or finite deformation or some other kind of simulation. Synthetics are the lowest common denominator - you'd rather see benchmarks in your field, and most of all benchmarks with your exact application. That doesn't change that those are individual wants and synthetic benchmarks are the only ones with any value to everyone.

    --
    Live today, because you never know what tomorrow brings
  10. Re:Weather Day After Tomorrow by geezer+nerd · · Score: 5, Interesting
    I can remember when the big desire of weather simulation supercomputers was to take less than 24 hours to do a 24-hour forecast. IIRC back in the second half of the '70s there was a big government-funded effort to build special fluid-dynamics oriented new machines to break that barrier.

    44 years ago 1-5 megaflops was hot! What excitement we felt when the CDC6600 was installed at my university!

    Back in '85 I was part of a startup building a mini-Cray, reimplementing the Cray instruction set in a smaller, cheaper box. I remember we focused on the Whetstone benchmark a lot, and it turned out that the Whetstone code really was bound up by moving characters around while formatting output strings, etc. We paid very careful attention to efficiently coding the C library string handling routines, and that got us more performance payback than anything we could do to optimize the arithmetic. One needs to understand the benchmark being used.

  11. Like any benchmark... by Junta · · Score: 2, Interesting

    Just with a lot more dollars behind it...

    Every one remotely engaged in Top500 systems knows how very specific the thing being measured is. It's most sensitive to the aggregate clock cycles and processor architecture, and not as sensitive to memory throughput/architecture or networking as many real world things are.

    http://icl.cs.utk.edu/hpcc/

    Is an attempt to be more comprehensive, at least, by specifying a whole suite of independently scored benchmarks to reflect the strengths and weaknesses of things in a more holistic way. Sure, it's still synthetic, but it can give a better 'at-a-glance' indicator of several generally important aspects of a supercomputer configuration.

    The thing probably inhibiting acceptance of this is that very fact, that it is holistic and the winner 'depends' on how you sort the data. This is excellent for those wanting to more comprehensively understand their configurations standing in the scheme of things, but hard for vendors and facilities to use for marketing leverage. Being able to say 'we built *the* fastest supercomputer according to the list' is a lot stronger than 'depending on how you count, we could be considered number one. Vendors will aggressively pursue pricing knowing about the attached bragging rights, and facilities that receive research grant money similarly want the ability to make statements without disclaimers.

    Rest assured, though, that more thorough evaluations are done and not every decision in the Top500 is just about that benchmark. For example, AMD platforms are doing more strongly than they would if only HPL score is counted. AMD's memory performance is still outrageously better than Intel and is good for many HPC applications, but Intel's current generation trounces AMD in HPL score. Of course, Intel did overwhelmingly become popular upon release of their 64-bit core architecture based systems, but still..

    --
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  12. Is it *REALLY* the Top 500? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Interesting

    Most of the locations listed are mostly educational institutions, r&d centers, and computer companies. The results were probably submitted unofficially. There are few exceptions, but they are just that--few. It makes you wonder what the Big Data companies (Google, Yahoo!, etc) actually have running. They have no reason to participate, after all...

    Consider something like Yahoo!'s research cluster. Why isn't it on this list? Why don't they run the tests?

  13. Thats not a "barrier" by quenda · · Score: 2, Insightful

    computings Mount Everest - the petaflops barrier

    Two bad cliched metaphors in one! Its not a peak, and its not a barrier, just another arbitrary milestone. Who writes this crap?
    Oh ... a "professional" writer from an industry magazine. That figures.
    This guy should enter the The Bulwer-Lytton Fiction Contest

    1. Re:Thats not a "barrier" by JustOK · · Score: 3, Funny

      you're making a mountain of a metaphor

      --
      rewriting history since 2109
  14. Well, let's see by Louis+Savain · · Score: 5, Interesting

    It's about a half a petaflop... but guess what? It runs Linux!

    This sounds kind of nice but why should this make it any easier to write parallel programs for it? You still have to manage hundreds if not thousands of threads, right? This will not magically turn it into a computer for the masses, I guarantee you that. I have said it elswhere but parallel computing will not come of age until they do away with multithreading and the traditional CPU core. There is a way to build and program parallel computers that does not involve the use of threads or CPUs. This is the only way to solve the parallel programming crisis. Until then, supercomputing will continue to be a curiosity that us mainstream programmers and users can only dream about.

    1. Re:Well, let's see by friedmud · · Score: 2, Insightful

      "Until then, supercomputing will continue to be a curiosity that us mainstream programmers and users can only dream about."

      I'm not so sure that's a bad thing... most applications don't need the power of a super computer...

      At the same time, I agree that I wish that desktop development tools made it easier to do threading for multi-core machines. Every new computer comes with more than one core... but the development tools (languages, compilers, IDE's, debuggers) simply aren't helping the everyday joe programmer out there make use of them...

      Friedmud

  15. RoadRunner by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Insightful

    Is running relatively stock Fedora (the ppc distribution). True, it's ram hosted, but the OS is hardly specialized in terms of libraries and such. You could say the Cell SDK is a tad specialized, but the underlying platform is not so custom as implied.

    In fact, every single Top500 system I've ever touched has been far more typical linux than most people ever expect.

    In any event, the most compelling aspect of RoadRunner in my view is the flops/watt. Application developers who can leverage highly parallel clusters are those who have the best shot of taking adequate advantage of something like the cell architecture, which is admittedly a pain for those that are accustomed to no more than 1 or two concurrent heavy-loaded processes or threads.

    BTW I still hate the Infiniband cabling with a passion. Even as they've made it less bad over time, it's still a huge connector. Nothing like Quadrics, mind you, but still reminiscent in bulk to 10base5.

    1. Re:RoadRunner by friedmud · · Score: 2, Informative

      The specialization of the hardware / software combo is what I was referring to.

      Have you ever coded for one of these special architectures? It really is a bitch. Yes, Redstorm is even worse (special OS that doesn't even allow dynamic linking!)... but the non-generality of the cell-processors is going to kill the real world impact of Roadrunner.

      ASCII Purple was one of the previous machines at LANL that was a "one-off" build from IBM. It was a complete disaster. Porting code to the machine took much longer than usual and any person who could show that they were successfully running _anything_ on the machine got a pat on the back. I had the luxury of porting some software to it... good god, just thinking about it makes me want to blow my brains out...

      I can't believe they've gone down that same path again.

      Friedmud

    2. Re:RoadRunner by friedmud · · Score: 2, Informative

      Sorry... got my supercomputers mixed up... ASCII Purple was at LANL...

      I was thinking of ASCI Q, but that was made by HP...

      Oh... just nevermind... I screwed it up well enough, just forget it ;-)

      Need to get some sleep.

      Friedmud

    3. Re:RoadRunner by friedmud · · Score: 2, Informative

      As far as I know (as of 3 months ago) they're still running Catamount at Sandia... and it's for the reason you state: they developed it.

      Friedmud

  16. Cost per computing power by pimpimpim · · Score: 2, Insightful
    Not just buying the thing, also the cost of maintaining it (standard hardware is most likely easier to maintain), and the power it and its cooling system uses, check green500 for that one. Actually, as a user, I have often found that most supercomputing clusters are inefficient for at least the first year-and-a-half due to imperfect queuing systems or network/filesystem incompatibilities. "Yeah, your run will likely crash every now and then but we don't know yet why". I do not blame the administrators, I blame the suppliers for not working on solutions to make it easier to successfully operate a cluster, e.g. via standardized methods .

    As for top500: really, quit with this political joke benchmark. E.g. In molecular simulations alone you will spend on a computer which has either broad memory access for matrix inversions in quantum calculations. Or on a high clock speed, low bandwidth one for MD, which basically does nothing but floating point operations. The score in the top500 will give you 0 information about what machine to choose.

    --
    molmod.com - computing tips from a molecular modeling
  17. Re:Uhh, do you have a model? by TapeCutter · · Score: 4, Informative

    I just threw away a couple of mod points to bring you this announcement: Climate != weather, climate is the long term statistics of weather. Two different numerical analysis models, both computationally expensive.

    --
    And did you exchange a walk on part in the war for a lead role in a cage? - Pink Floyd.
  18. Re:Uhh, do you have a model? by Waffle+Iron · · Score: 3, Informative

    IANAM (I am not a meteorologist)

    That's for sure.

    Here's an analogy: Say you pour two different colored cans of paint into a bucket and start stirring. Weather is like predicting the exact patterns of swirls that you'll see as the colors mix. Very hard to do looking ahead more than a couple of stirs.

    Climate is more like predicting the final color that will result after the mixing is done. Not nearly so intractable. The summary is talking about climate, not weather.

  19. This is common knowledge by Raul654 · · Score: 2, Interesting

    It's fair to criticize Linpack for being a one-trick pony. It measures system performance for dense linear algebra, and nothing else. Jack Dongarra (the guy who wrote Linpack and maintains the top 500 lists) is quite up-front about Linpack's limitations, and he thinks that using a single number as the end-all-be-all of a computer's performance is a bad idea. It's a simple fact of life that certian kinds of computers do better on certain problems. The good guys out at Berkeley even sat down a couple years ago and enumerated all of the problems they found in real-world HPC applications (See the tables on pages 11-12). The real truth here is that people should stop treating Linpack like it's the final measure of system performance. If you are doing pure linear algebra problems, it's a pretty good measurement for your purposes; if you are not, then you use it at your own peril.

    --


    To make laws that man cannot, and will not obey, serves to bring all law into contempt.
    --E.C. Stanton
  20. Isn't Modeling Weather Futile? by CleverMonkey · · Score: 2, Interesting

    I seem to recall a Nova special I watched many moons ago about "strange attractors" and "fractal behavior" that seemed to indicate that for a large class of complex-valued iterative functions there was a weird phenomenon called the "Butterfly Effect". Apparently... according to this show I saw 20 years ago (and I think that Mandelbrot mentioned it in a lecture I attended a few years later), initial variables which are as intertwined as the rational and irrational numbers can have drastically divergent outcomes in these situations.

    It seems that the reason that this was called the Butterfly Effect was actually because the disturbance caused by a butterfly could be enough to change the track of a massive storm some days later. ( Reference)

    The fact is that the weather forecasters on the local broadcast channel are less accurate than if they always predicted sun in one study:

    "The graph above shows that stations get their precipitation predictions correct about 85 percent of the time one day out and decline to about 73 percent seven days out.

    "On the surface, that would not seem too bad. But consider that if a meteorologist always predicted that it would never rain, they would be right 86.3 percent of the time. So if a viewer was looking for more certainty than just assuming it will not rain, a successful meteorologist would have to be better than 86.3 percent. Three of the forecasters were about 87 percent at one day out â" a hair over the threshold for success."

    (ref: http://freakonomics.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/04/21/how-valid-are-tv-weather-forecasts/)

    It's a wonderful idea that we can model the incredibly complex climate of our huge planet, but I'll believe it once I can trust the weekend forecast before Friday.

    Any other ideas about useful purposes to put these huge computers to? Perhaps accounting and auditing for the new Emergency Financial Legislation?

  21. Re:Uhh, do you have a model? by sumdumass · · Score: 2, Insightful

    Can't I? - On average the weather will be colder in winter 4008 than it will be in summer 4008.

    Are you sure about that? You see, you opened a hole so broad that your statement isn't accurate even today. It's always summer and always winter on the earth. So it could be the same temperature in summer and winter in 4008.

    Also, you didn't explain what future climate predictions you came to that conclusion over. I might have not been specific enough for a fan boy like you, but I was making the claim to future weather predictions from climate predictions. Of course a prediction is an attempt to explain what the future will be like so it is in the future too. You can conceive the seasonal climate differences in a particular spot from historical reference but not future climate predictions. In other words, you can't claim the climate will be X in the future and then make a claim about the weather from X. Or do you know something the rest of us thinking individuals don't? I mean how do you come to the conclusion that summer will not be as cold as winter by using climate predictions alone?

    The rest of the logic in your post is upside down, however we have crossed swords before and I have (in the past) provided you with relevant links that you are still choosing to ignore.

    That's a cop out. I really wish you guys wouldn't get your panties in a knot when someone questions the premise of your faith. The only flaw in my logic is where it hampers with your beliefs.

    And the site your talking about uses some false logic and logical fallacies in and of itself. I remember it, in one article, attempting to reference a claim that was recently refuted in order to refute the claim that just refuted the previous claim. Yes, your head should be spinning by now. It's like saying your wrong because of this stuff that your claiming is wrong shows something different. But that's what I would expect from a site pioneered by a NASA scientist who said he knew information he was using was flawed but "exaggeration by scientists had its place when it was necessary to mobilize public opinion." Of course the father of global warming also published his first climate model claiming global cooling was a threat in 1971. And to make things even worse is the political hijacking of the issue and almost all of it's purposed solutions. But like you've said, we have had this talk before.

  22. Re:Uhh, do you have a model? by sumdumass · · Score: 2, Insightful

    No, in fact my faith in science as the provider of the best available explaination for systematic observations of the natural world means that I'm not even sure the Sun will rise tomorrow BUT it my faith also tells me not worry about it.

    I wasn't talking about your faith in science. I am talking about your faith in global warming and how it has to be true.

    Absolute certainty of future events is a sport played by politicians and opionion columnists and I suggest that is why you insist on using their stale arguments in every post you make concerning the climate.

    I'm wasn't talking about absolute certainty. I was talking about the ability to predict climate independent of weather. It can't be done which was the point of my post and the reason why separating climate from weather has no bearing on the accuracy claims.

    Perhaps you hadn't noticed but these people themselves have now largely abandoned those twisted factoids and begrudgingly accepted the two main points of the IPCC consensus. Your continued inability/refusal to look at the evidence in a non-political manner belies your ranting.

    Actually, you don't have evidence in a non-political manner. That is the problem. Hansen fought forever to keep his evidence secrete. It wasn't until someone collected enough of their own to check and find something was wrong before they started opening it up. I have heard the arguments about peer reviewed and all but when a lowly blogger attempts to get the data, he runs into road block after road block, lost data sets, and all of the rest. You have heard the saying, Garbage in Garbage out, well we have no guarentee that there isn't garbage in and until we do, all the work from the political organization, the IPCC, has to be questioned. But, as you will notice by using your expert scientific mouse clicker and go back, I have said nothing disputing global warming now have I. But somehow, pointing out that separating climate from weather with a definition that locks them together and blasting a biased site who's main contributor claims it is perfectly fine to exaggerate because the ends justify the means, you now have me denying science altogether. Well, here is a hint for you, Not trusting the source of something say nothing about it at all. I don't get how if we don't just accept what your deity says without question, we are somehow non-believers and committing blasphemy. In fact, that is so wrong that I'm not sure you can even claim to be scientific in your beliefs. The basic premise of science is to question the answers and test everything.