Number of ET Civilizations In Our Galaxy Is 37,964

KentuckyFC writes "The famous Drake equation calculates the number of advanced civilizations in our galaxy right now. But the result is hugely sensitive to the assumptions you make about factors such as the number of habitable planets that orbit a host star, how many of these actually develop life and what fraction of these go on to become intelligent etc. Disagreements about these figures leads to estimates for the number of advanced civilizations ranging from 10^-5 to 10^6. Now an astronomer in Scotland has worked out how to make the calculations more precise so that different theories about the origin of planets, life and civilizations can be compared. His calculations say that the rare-life hypothesis predicts only 361 advanced civilizations in the Milky Way now. However, the so-called tortoise and hare hypothesis predicts 31,573 and the theory of panspermia says that there ought to be 37,964 extraterrestrial civilizations more advanced than our own in the Milky Way."

Comments

yuck.

[apodyopsis]

Make that 37,965. My colleague surely has one growing in his tea cup.

yuck.

Re:yuck.

[Mastadex]

Like I said before, it adds flavor to a rather dull blend.

Re:What a great example!

[deniable]

The original estimate was 32768 and an overflow flag.

Re:My estimate

[Rob T Firefly]

1.

Is that the mice, or the dolphins?

Re:What a great example!

[iangoldby]

It must be right, because the answer came from a computer.

Re:my theory is 1 civilization per galaxy

[NoobixCube]

I follow the Mass Effect way of thinking. A handful of civilizations, each with dramatically polarized stereotypical traits, and who speak English with perfect North American accents, regardless of the structure of their mouth(s) and/or vocal cords (assuming they have them...).

Re:What a great example!

[geminidomino]

But the question didn't. We should make a bigger computer to determine what the question should have been.

Re:Number fun

[CRCulver]

BUT its lots of fun, everyone throw in their own numbers that have some personal truthyness to them and see what you got. I get around 43,012

That reminds me of this article from the Onion.

'"My personal savior is Batman," said Beverly Hills plastic surgeon Greg Jurgenson. "My wife chooses to follow the teachings of the Gilmore Girls. Of course, we are still beginners. Some advanced-level Fictionologists have total knowledge of every lifetime they have ever lived for the last 80 trillion years."

"Sure, it's total bullshit," Jurgenson added. "But that's Fictionology. Praise Batman!"'

Re:Aliens Cause Global Warming

[Bishop Rook]

And we should all listen to Michael Crichton, because he's been right about so many things.

Re:What a great example!

[$RANDOMLUSER]

Re:Here is an interesting one.

[Foobar of Borg]

Nearly all of their calculations are done to ONE significant figure.

That's probably because they assume too many spherical cows.

Re:As always, no.

[nametaken]

I've seen a lot of Stargate, and if I've learned anything, it's that pretty much all alien life looks like us, develops civilizations nearly identical to our own history, and speaks english.

You need to do more heavy research!

Re:Aliens Cause Global Warming

[alexborges]

Yeah, thats why we have this crazy velociraptor problem here in L.A.

Re:Aliens Cause Global Warming

[OldManAndTheC]

Yeah, thats why we have this crazy velociraptor problem here in L.A.

I don't mind the normal velociraptors, but I do try to avoid the crazy ones.