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The Myth of Upgrade Inevitability Is Dead

Several readers pointed out a ComputerWorld UK blog piece on the expanding ripples of the Vista fiasco. Glyn Moody quotes an earlier Inquirer piece about Vista, which he notes "has been memorably described as DRM masquerading as an operating system": "Studies carried out by both Gartner and IDC have found that because older software is often incompatible with Vista, many consumers are opting for used computers with XP installed as a default, rather than buying an expensive new PC with Vista and downgrading. Big business, which typically thinks nothing about splashing out for newer, more up-to-date PCs, is also having trouble with Vista, with even firms like Intel noting XP would remain the dominant OS within the company for the foreseeable future." Moody continues: "What's really important about this is not so much that Vista is manifestly such a dog, but that the myth of upgrade inevitability has been destroyed. Companies have realized that they do have a choice — that they can simply say 'no.' From there, it's but a small step to realizing that they can also walk away from Windows completely, provided the alternatives offer sufficient data compatibility to make that move realistic."

20 of 597 comments (clear)

  1. last sentence by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Insightful

    the last sentence is a load of bollocks. People stick with XP because then they don't have to change their existing software. Walking away from windows would force just that

    1. Re:last sentence by hellion0 · · Score: 5, Interesting

      Maybe not today, maybe not tomorrow, but soon, and for the... ah, wait, wrong cliche.

      Still, the fact is that someday, Microsoft will stop supporting XP even when it comes to security. That'll mean all those businesses who try to hang on will be forced to seek another option then, assuming MSFT hasn't learned and made something that would be a logical, worthwhile upgrade from XP. Assuming things stay the same by that point, you might start seeing a frenzied stampede away from Windows.

      --
      Do I get bonus points if I act like I care?
    2. Re:last sentence by Tony+Hoyle · · Score: 5, Insightful

      It's not logical reasons that keep people from shifting to Linux now, it's just the fear of the unknown.

      That's also killing Vista as much as its bad reputation.

      Microsoft are their own worst enemy at the moment. Windows 95/98/ME and XP had substantially the same interface.. the majority of non-techies will have learned on that interface.. schools are still teaching that interface in 'office' classes. It's extremely likely that everyone in your workplace from the cleaners upwards would know what to do when faced with an XP desktop. Now MS want to throw all that learning away - and people are just saying "screw that, I want my nice familiar interface back" and downgrading to XP.

    3. Re:last sentence by that+this+is+not+und · · Score: 5, Insightful

      That'll mean all those businesses who try to hang on will be forced to seek another option then,

      Yes. But there are considerable other options. Businesses can, for instance, harden the infrastructure around their XP workstations without upgrading them further. My stapler hasn't required an 'upgrade' in over 12 years (since the mandatory red-color upgrade.) The notion that any significant amount of security resides in the desktop PC is ridiculous and so easily proven to be a joke (as Microsoft provides it) that it's time for corporate IT to step past that myth. The boundary for security is outside the PC in the network surrounding it.

      Microsoft is fairly good at providing a soft and cushy 'client' level environment. The key to increased security in a corporate environment is to firewall Microsoft in. Firewalls that block Windows desktops in from both sides. Don't allow their badly designed kludgeware anywhere BUT on the desktop and things can be well managed and secure.

    4. Re:last sentence by 4im · · Score: 5, Interesting

      I take issue with this bit:

      why would 70% of eeePC sales be XP models?

      At least where I'm living (in western europe), there's no way to get one of the decent hardware versions (i.e. models 901, 1000) in the Linux version.

      In fact, I've just this morning ordered a couple XP versions, fully intending to not even boot those but to immediately replace them by my favourite Linux version. So, Asus will have sold a couple of XP licenses, but they won't ever get used - how many more like me are there? I don't even know if there's a chance to get my money back on the licenses.

      I'm even happily shelling out Euros to at least get the kind of keyboard that's standard in this country instead of the foreign ones offered locally.

      Asus, your sales model sucks! Unfortunately, the alternatives aren't any more palatable.

    5. Re:last sentence by Skrynesaver · · Score: 5, Insightful

      While your stapler remains locked in your drawer there is no security issue with your stapler, however as soon as you let "Bob" use it it will get lost. He'll give it to Eve, who'll promise to hand it on to you untouched but ...

      Oh sod it I'm not going to draw another pointless Slashdot analogy, your desktop computer needs to communicate with the outside world to get useful work done, it needs to process the results of that communication, no matter how good your filtering technology some smart-arse will find a way to subvert it. Security is about secure systems all the way down, ring-fencing any segment and declaring it as secure because it's behind a firewall is self-delusion.

      Now next question, do any of your staff work from home? Do they have kids? Do sales staff connect to client's networks when they are off site?

      --
      "Linux is for noobs"-The new MS fud strategy
    6. Re:last sentence by Chrisje · · Score: 5, Interesting

      If XP is end of life and Windows 7 is supported, it's already better right there. Sorry to say this mate, but I have a vague feeling Windows 7 will be better regardless.

      Currently I'm running Vista on my corporate desktop, and I'm not unhappy about it. The only gripe I have with the platform is that network discovery is done every time you open Windows explorer.

      If I hibernate / sleep while on the corporate network, and I wake up that thing at home, opening an explorer window will take ~20 seconds because it tries to access the previously mapped network drives. This should be done out of band or potentially not at all in my view, not *every* bloody time you open an explorer. It's a bad implementation.

      Apart from that the GUI is nice, the Networking menus are a pain in the backside, and XP's control panel was better. However, it manages sleep / hibernation more nicely and runs very (dare I say it) stable with the software suite I need.

      To cut a long story short, I've been with Windows since 1.0x and I can tell you that in general the quality of the OS has been going up steadily. Vista is not perfect, but it's a *lot* nicer than NT4, 2000 for the desktop, 98, 95. Whether it's better than XP is somewhat debatable, but in the end it's a tight race. All in all, the trend is upwards.

      Now Windows 7 or whatever the new iteration for the Desktop will be, will likely be better than XP indeed. Anyone who claims different probably hasn't paid attention to MicroSoft's history.

      The thing is that this site is a Linux-centric religious institute, so obviously you'll easily and frequently hear "Upgrade myth busted", "Linux to dominate world in 2009" and "w00t!". The truth is that MicroSoft isn't all bad, and neither is Linux, but at the end of the day I do believe people will skip Vista to some degree (ME anyone?) only to hop on board at the next iteration again.

      Which is not necessarily bad for the market or the consumers.

    7. Re:last sentence by TheRaven64 · · Score: 5, Funny

      Almost every developer I know these days uses a Mac laptop

      We still develop in Vim, we just buy Macs so we can look down on the Windows users.

      --
      I am TheRaven on Soylent News
    8. Re:last sentence by fyngyrz · · Score: 5, Interesting

      Well, this Apple "fanboi" is, in my own small way, annoying to Microsoft's OS ambitions because I can run XP in a virtual machine that moves with me across my various desktops, laptop, etc, in a 100% consistent "hardware" environment so I can stay on the hardware upward speed curve as Apple brings out new machines, but I don't have to deal with XP not understanding later architectures, nor with it "playing in the street" outside a network sandbox.

      I can keep XP safely off the net, even while OSX is fully connected; I can keep it safely backed up outside the world it knows about; and I can knock it back to a "newly installed, but fully enabled" condition by simply copying one file. I can maintain a full software development environment within this virtual XP machine, and if I need something from the net, I'll get it with the Apple and safely hand it over using a virtual filesystem.

      No more Microsoft upgrades. Period. Microsoft has seen their last OS dollar from me. And I'm glad; I feel that it was an abusive relationship, both as a developer, and as a user.

      I keep a couple virtual linux machines available on my desktop as well, Ubuntu and Redhat; don't have to go to such extremes, as they're about as safe on the net as OSX is. Someday, if they ever develop an actual open, standardized GUI API that is free for everyone to use, regardless of why they want to use it, I may develop for linux, too. In the meantime, I'm keeping my hand in. I like linux, and I particularly like Ubuntu.

      --
      I've fallen off your lawn, and I can't get up.
  2. Strange leap in logic... by Endymion · · Score: 5, Insightful

    From there, it's but a small step to realizing that they can also walk away from Windows completely

    No way. I'm as huge a unix and Free Software proponent as anyone here, but even I can see that statement is utterly idiotic. The motivation to stay with XP is the desire to not change. Change takes effort, which is generally not worth it if things are working fine at the moment. The "don't fix it if it's not broken" theory.

    The simple fact is that most computers, both hardware and software, are generally "good enough" these days. This means that the most efficient thing for you to be using is often the one you are using at the moment. To suggest otherwise demands a substantial benefit, and Microsoft is (hopefully) figuring out that they are no longer offering such a benefit. Free alternatives may indeed offer substantial benefits, but it's generally in more obscure things like "not being tied to a single vendor" that are not a direct impact on most people's daily computer needs.

    Now, it's still great that people seem to be finally jumping off the Microsoft upgrade-treadmill, but it's going to be a while yet before they decide other upgrades might be a viable option...

    --
    Ce n'est pas une signature automatique.
  3. In some places it is impossible to upgrade by bdsesq · · Score: 5, Interesting

    I work for a hospital. Our medical records software does not support vista yet. General Electric is the vendor and they have recently announced vista compatibility will happen some time next year.

    If they had been ready two years ago we might have tried it. With today's economic situation I don't think we can afford to upgrade.

    So no vista for a 5,000 employee organization.
    There are hundreds of other hospitals with the same medical records software.

    XP just works. Why would anyone upgrade?

  4. Re:Most people don't know its an upgrade by somenickname · · Score: 5, Funny

    I generally ask for payment based on the OS that I'm asked to install or fix:

    Install/Fix Ubuntu: A beer
    Install/Fix XP: A six pack of beer
    Install/Fix Vista: A keg of beer, blow and hookers

  5. Re:Upgrading must be for a reason by pugdk · · Score: 5, Insightful

    Yes, upgrading must be for a reason.

    I recently decided to upgrade to Vista because Microsoft has utterly destroyed the functionality and stability of Windows XP with its recent updates (say in the last 9-12 months or so).

    I'm not sure exactly when this happend, but I'm not alone, plenty of coworkers have the same problem:

    Double clicking on an office file (doc, xls, ppt) will make windows go into a waiting period (hour glass) for several minutes (up to half an hour or until you reboot) before the file is finally opened. This "functionality" is present not only with office files (but mostly these), but also other documents (besides office documents) suffer the same fate.

    This has happend to a range of computers, running a range of different anti virus software, with a range of different office versions (office 2000, XP and 2003).

    Now, you then install a CLEAN version of XP and a clean version of office (with antivirus etc.) this DOES NOT happen!

    You then update your XP and Office (or wait for your computer to get owned... argh) and the problem comes back!

    Hence Microsofts update has FORCED me to upgrade to Vista to get any meaningful work done... at least this problem is gone from Vista, however other problems then pop up, most notably, the lack of obtaining a new IP via DHCP when switching from one location to another... jesus, how hard can it be? but also performance drops (mostly network related) and no, I'm not alone in seeing these things either.

    All in all, I got rid of some showstoppers caused by updating Windows XP, just to be annoyed by simple problems in Vista.

    Considering the price tag this software comes with, I can't say I'm impressed with the problems, neither am I impressed with the observation that Microsoft forced me to upgrade to Vista by utterly messing up XP *after Vista was shipped!*

    *sighs*

    (No, using Linux is unfortunately not an option, as we use software everyday that runs only on Windows... using a Mac would bring forth the same problems, its either Windows or not get any work done!)

  6. Re:Most people don't know its an upgrade by cerberusss · · Score: 5, Funny

    I generally ask for payment [...] Install/Fix Vista: A keg of beer, blow and hookers

    In fact, forget about Vista and the beer.

    --
    8 of 13 people found this answer helpful. Did you?
  7. WHAT THE HELL ARE YOU DOING?! by denzacar · · Score: 5, Funny

    Making a logical comment - HERE, on Slashdot?!

    Don't you know by now that when someone mentions Windows or Microsoft you should put on your best "hate-face" and go "GRRRRR"!?
    Likewise, as soon as someone mentions Linux you should put on your best "smart-face" and go "A-Ha"!?
    And should someone mention anything about Apple you should just smile like hell cause you just had a multiple orgasm.

    Don't you know that Windows are made from stolen fetuses of prospective Linux programmers?
    When the mother is asleep during her last trimester, Bill Gates swoops in through the window (hence the name of the OS) on his leathery wings, holding a coathanger and snatches that fetus right out of her womb.
    Fetuses are then thrown into a giant blender, and later boiled below a huge board covered with cat excrement.

    The power of Linux is so strong in those unborn programmers that their life juices condense and wash out the excrement off the board in the form of code, which Bill then steals for the next version of his unholy OS.
    Something is lost in transcription, naturally, plus while all geniuses those babies do lack the experience, ergo - Windows sucks.

    Didn't they teach you anything in school?

    --
    Mit der Dummheit kämpfen Götter selbst vergebens
  8. Re:Most people don't know its an upgrade by hazem · · Score: 5, Funny

    If I ever get laid off, can I come work with you?

  9. Depends of your point of view by PinkyDead · · Score: 5, Insightful

    Can't agree with that.

    If you're talking about the home user, then they will change as soon as they buy new hardware. They will take what they are given and they will like it. Just go into any computer shop and open your ears: Dad is in there, he's heard bad things about Vista and he's fairly sure he doesn't want it - but he still leaves the shop with it under his arm. When he gets home, he finds he's not happy, but there is nothing he can do - and unless he can get someone to downgrade it (which he's not comfortable about either) he's stuck with it. Whether that means that he will switch really depends on what Mac/Linux can offer to that market segment.

    Small businesses will operate in a similar fashion, but because they have better budgets for hardware upgrades and the availability of technically capable individuals for advice and support, they won't take the crap and will be a lot less resistant to change (except for the accounts "department" - because they use balance sheets to determine software quality).

    As for the medium to large business user - they cannot use unsupported software, so if XP ever ends up in that state they will have to change.

    The problem they have right now is that Vista represents too much of a cost overhead to support internally, for at best no advantage, or more typically severe costs in terms of reduced productivity or hardware upgrades.

    They currently live in an overlap which XP represents, but as that overlap shrinks they will start seriously looking at alternatives.

    On top of this, those involved in making the decisions may be going one step further and projecting a future where every 12-24 months a new version of Windows appears and with it a repeat of the current uncertainty. If they are, then good business sense says that, unless Microsoft put guarantees in place (which must be based on what they have, not what the intend to have), then it is time to start planning for change.

    --
    Genesis 1:32 And God typed :wq!
  10. Re:Upgrading must be for a reason by Bert64 · · Score: 5, Insightful

    So your basically screwed...
    MS has you locked in, and they arbitrarily crippled the software you were using to make you buy new stuff...

    For the obligatory car analogy, it would be like Ford coming and smashing up your old car and forcing you to buy a new one.

    MS have you over a barrel, and this will probably only be the start. I would suggest you look seriously at replacing the software keeping you locked in, before MS pulls a few more stunts like this. Your business is in an extremely weak position, utterly beholden to the whims of one company.

    Would you put up with treatment like this from anyone else, or would you ditch them and go elsewhere?

    --
    http://spamdecoy.net - free throwaway anonymous email - avoid spam!
  11. Re:Upgrading must be for a reason by slash.duncan · · Score: 5, Insightful

    Considering the price tag [I am not] impressed with the observation that Microsoft forced me to upgrade to Vista by utterly messing up XP *after Vista was shipped!*
    *sighs*

    OK, I recognize that I'm taking a controversial position with this post, but it's my post and I choose to take it. So be it if people find it radical and it kills my karma. If there's ever an issue I believe it worth losing it on, this is it.

    They didn't force anything.

    If there's one thing I learned as a victim of abuse (emotional and physical, FWIW the wounds are now healed into scars, a decade after the last one), it's that I ALWAYS have a choice. In the ultimate worst case, it may be only the choice to continue to fight even to the death or to surrender, but once I've given in and let them take away my last choice, I've let them win, and been subsumed by victim syndrome. Once that happens, the reality distortion starts, and the victim fails to see ways out even when they do present themselves. That's classic victim syndrome and the reason so many abuse victims continue to fall into the same pattern again and again. Serial victims, they get out of one victimization situation only to find themselves it another. It becomes the default response to challenge. There's only one way out, learning that you ALWAYS have choices, at whatever level they may be. The abusers CANNOT take that from you unless you allow them to.

    Only once I learned that, did I break out of the repeating pattern. Only once I learned to actively look for and assert the choices I had, did I overcome the vicious serial victim cycle. NEVER. EVER. EVER. Let them tell you differently.

    Umm... back to the discussion at hand...

    So it wasn't that they forced you into anything. Rather, you either actively surveyed the range of choices and made what you perceived to be the best option you had (out of several), or you took the default option, the one the people you have allowed to be your masters (see my sig) wanted you to take, not by active choice, but by defaulting, allowing them to make the choice for you.

    (No, using Linux is unfortunately not an option, as we use software everyday that runs only on Windows... using a Mac would bring forth the same problems, its either Windows or not get any work done!)

    It's certainly an option, because you can simply recompile that everyday software to the new interface... Oh, wait... you can't... because you allowed someone else to be your master, taking away your freedom and dictating what you could and couldn't do with software you had chosen to run. Again, see the sig.

    But it's still an option, because you can, starting now, choose not to put yourself in that position again, while digging yourself out of the hole you find yourself in due to your past choices.

    Meanwhile, as you said, a clean install doesn't have the problem. Thus, it's one of the updates. Try applying the updates one at a time (maybe consider the MS Office updates the potential culprit and either test them first or last, given other comments) and checking for the problem, then rolling back (by force of a reinstall if those you have chosen to allow to be your masters decree it) if the problem appears. Or, if there's a lot of updates as there may well be, it may be easier to systematically bisect the problem, installing half the updates, seeing if it's in that half, then either installing half of the remainder or rolling back and installing half of the bad test and checking again.

    Eventually you'll pin it to a single update. Don't do that update, while doing the others. Then check the patch (or have someone else do so if you don't read code, it's like taking a car to a mechanic if you aren't one)... oh... right... your masters don't allow that, do they? Umm... look at the patch/update description and decide whether it's a patch you can safely do without while on the net or not. If not, you'll either need to fin

    --
    Duncan
    "Every nonfree program has a lord, a master,
    and if you use the program, he is your master."
    R Stallman
  12. Re:Upgrading must be for a reason by drsmithy · · Score: 5, Informative

    may i ask about details on how vista benefits the support infrastructure?

    Off the top of my head:
    * Better deployment tools
    * Lots more GPOs
    * UAC
    * Improvements to Folder Redirection
    * Improvements to Remote Assistance
    * Improvements to Offline Files
    * Improvements to diagnostics and error reporting
    * Improvements to Task Scheduler