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The Myth of Upgrade Inevitability Is Dead
Several readers pointed out a ComputerWorld UK blog piece on the expanding ripples of the Vista fiasco. Glyn Moody quotes an earlier Inquirer piece about Vista, which he notes "has been memorably described as DRM masquerading as an operating system": "Studies carried out by both Gartner and IDC have found that because older software is often incompatible with Vista, many consumers are opting for used computers with XP installed as a default, rather than buying an expensive new PC with Vista and downgrading. Big business, which typically thinks nothing about splashing out for newer, more up-to-date PCs, is also having trouble with Vista, with even firms like Intel noting XP would remain the dominant OS within the company for the foreseeable future." Moody continues: "What's really important about this is not so much that Vista is manifestly such a dog, but that the myth of upgrade inevitability has been destroyed. Companies have realized that they do have a choice — that they can simply say 'no.' From there, it's but a small step to realizing that they can also walk away from Windows completely, provided the alternatives offer sufficient data compatibility to make that move realistic."
the last sentence is a load of bollocks. People stick with XP because then they don't have to change their existing software. Walking away from windows would force just that
I really struggle to comprehend companies which upgrade without doing a full cost/benefit analysis first. Surely when upgrading a significant number of machines with a new OS, you must consider a) the benefits b)the cost c)training requirements and d)other options. By other options I mean such things as Other OSes including Linux and Mac OS X - and in order to do that you need to speak to experts in each field, not just a MS Expert who will only tell you the benefits of Vista and the downsides of everything else. I really do not see the benefit of upgrading from XP to Vista for most business users - who, lets face it, are doing web, email, word and excel. Is there really anything they can;t do just now? Or anything they really NEED from Vista? What about Mac OS X - doesn't that provide much the same 'new' features?
all they have to do to get their market back is stop releasing security patches or release lower and lower quality patches.
Hey, don't pretend like you have a choice anyway. Vista is co crap, that you have your choice now. If Windows 7 will be good enough, hw vendors stop writing Xp drivers, and your choice vaporised.
The minimum requirements for Windows XP are 300Mhz CPU and 64MB of RAM. XP was designed for yesterday's hardware. My work laptop is XP and my home laptop is Vista and I found that Vista handles my 2GB of memory a lot better than XP. For example, task switching from Half Life 2 to the desktop is handled a lot better in Vista than XP. If all the bullshit was removed from Vista, it would perform better than XP. Unfortunately, that's not the case.
From there, it's but a small step to realizing that they can also walk away from Windows completely
No way. I'm as huge a unix and Free Software proponent as anyone here, but even I can see that statement is utterly idiotic. The motivation to stay with XP is the desire to not change. Change takes effort, which is generally not worth it if things are working fine at the moment. The "don't fix it if it's not broken" theory.
The simple fact is that most computers, both hardware and software, are generally "good enough" these days. This means that the most efficient thing for you to be using is often the one you are using at the moment. To suggest otherwise demands a substantial benefit, and Microsoft is (hopefully) figuring out that they are no longer offering such a benefit. Free alternatives may indeed offer substantial benefits, but it's generally in more obscure things like "not being tied to a single vendor" that are not a direct impact on most people's daily computer needs.
Now, it's still great that people seem to be finally jumping off the Microsoft upgrade-treadmill, but it's going to be a while yet before they decide other upgrades might be a viable option...
Ce n'est pas une signature automatique.
From there, it's but a small step to realizing that they can also walk away from Windows completely, provided the alternatives offer sufficient data compatibility to make that move realistic."
Sure, the group that says "if it works, don't break it" are going to throw out all their old applications and start using a completely new set of applications, if only the data compatibility is good enough. Maybe you should start at the application front? Because if people won't switch from Windows/Word to Windows/OpenOffice they certainly won't move from Windows/Word to Linux/OpenOffice. Linux/WINE/Word is hardly the answer.
Live today, because you never know what tomorrow brings
Like most people in IT I spend a certain part of the year helping out those less fortunate than myself. Namely all the friends, friends of the wife, some bloke I met in the pub and the school in getting their computers to work. Most recently I fixed a couple of laptops and an internet connection, one was on XP the other on Vista, the wife asked to have her (XP) PC "look like" her husbands as she like the look of the interface. When I said it was a different operating system she said "Isn't it Windows then?"
The point is of course that it is Windows and the difference between XP and Vista for most users does just come down to the pretty window manager... until stuff doesn't work. The XP box was back-online in under 10 minutes, the Vista box took me longer due to the wonderful UAC and a driver problem.
Most of the time however I feel like a Mac salesman, I turn up with my Mac (the trouble shooting box) run all the tests and have them thinking "ooooh that must be hard to use because its so powerful and techy" then let them play around with it for a few minutes. I'd say that around 50% of those people I've supported this year who are looking at replacements are now looking at a Mac.
Now a Slashdot poll on what is the correct payment for these unofficial support calls (often at a party or other social function) would be good. Right now I'm getting around two bottles of wine and a decent meal out of it.
An Eye for an Eye will make the whole world blind - Gandhi
I work for a hospital. Our medical records software does not support vista yet. General Electric is the vendor and they have recently announced vista compatibility will happen some time next year.
If they had been ready two years ago we might have tried it. With today's economic situation I don't think we can afford to upgrade.
So no vista for a 5,000 employee organization.
There are hundreds of other hospitals with the same medical records software.
XP just works. Why would anyone upgrade?
Big business, which typically thinks nothing about splashing out for newer, more up-to-date PCs, is also having trouble with Vista, with even firms like Intel noting XP would remain the dominant OS within the company for the foreseeable future.
Bollocks. Big businesses (like, say, Intel) run a 3-5 year upgrade cycle (closer to 5 these days), based around both hardware cycles (typically due to leasing arrangements) and software certification. The _earliest_ any intelligent person would expect Vista to start appearing in big business IT (outside of pilot programs, testing and CxO laptops) is the beginning of 2009, and more likely around the beginning of 2010.
What's really important about this is not so much that Vista is manifestly such a dog, but that the myth of upgrade inevitability has been destroyed. Companies have realised that they do have a choice â" that they can simply say âoenoâ. From there, it's but a small step to realising that they can also walk away from Windows completely, provided the alternatives offer sufficient data compatibility to make that move realistic.
Bollocks. Those staying with XP are doing so because it is a known quantity. If they're not prepared to move to the mostly-known-quantity of Vista, they sure as hell aren't going to step into the complete unknowns of OS X or Linux.
That may not have been the case before, but the similar poor uptake of Microsoft's OOXML, taken together with the generally good compatibility of OpenOffice.org with the original Microsoft Office file formats, implies that we may well be near the tipping point for migrations to free software on the desktop..
So 2009 will be the year of the Linux desktop ? Just like 2008, 2007, 2006, 2005, 2004, 2003, 2002, 2001, 2000 and 1999 were going to be ?
I'm obviously not the only one thinking along these lines. Last weekend, Dell was advertising its new Inspiron Mini 9 in at least one national newspaper. This would have been unthinkable even a year ago, when the company's fear of upsetting the mighty Microsoft by mentioning the âoeLâ word would have been too great, and is further evidence that GNU/Linux is indeed becoming a mainstream option.
Bollocks. Dell have been selling servers, workstations and desktops with Linux installed for *years*.
In summary, the writer is a clueless fool, although that should had been obvious as soon as the phrase "quotes an earlier Inquirer piece [...]" appeared.
Windows 7 has had glowing reports from everyone I know who's installed the beta and they find it incredibly fast, reliable and easy to use and that's only a beta> Microsoft have gone through every major critisism of Vista and fixed it or taken a better approach to it.
The only thing that was 'wrong' with Vista that currently remains is the DRM but that was a whole load of FUD to begin with. Don't want DRM? Don't buy DRM protected content that won't play on software without the DRM features Vista has.
As for no need to upgrade, XP is approaching the end of its lifespan, it's not designed for technologies such as SSDs nor is it really designed for Netbooks (the only reason it runs well on them is because XP was designed to run on 500mhz systems with 512mb ram). software is starting to hit the 4gb ram limit of 32bit OS' and it's not going to be worth spending a lot of time and money 'upgrading' to xp 64 when it would cost them little extra to upgrade to 7.
Shortened version: When MS last had an OS flop, they followed it up with their most successful OS ever.
While it wasn't as fully featured as the latest version of Word, there wasn't a lot that I wanted to do that Works was too limited for. Modern machines have hundreds of times more RAM and a similar increase in processing power and really don't do a whole lot more.
Since I'm a software designer and must support the latest standard, I upgraded to Vista so I can make sure that my programs are compatible.
Its been nothing but pain.
I'm very fanatic about keeping my system clean and functioning well, I don't install superfluous applications and am very careful about what I do install.
The problem is, VISTA seems to slowly degrade in stability over time with blue-screens appearing quite often after a few months of regular day to day use. Once it gets to more than 2-3 blue screens a day, I restore the OS from a clean image and then it works well for a while longer until the blue screens appear again.
The funny thing is, the blue screens seem to be from different system components (usbhost.sys, tcpip.sys, memory faults, etc...). If you may think this has something to do with hardware failure (which was my initial guess seeing references to USB and other hardware drivers crashing), you'd be wrong as a clean install or running XP gets rid of all these problems. And I'm not using any weird USB devices either, only Flash Drives and the occasional SD card reader.
Zoom Player Lead Dev.
My mac is still running Tiger and I don't see the need to upgrade to some other cat and I'm still running Mandriva 2007.
The days where I had to have the last are gone. And I consider myself a nerd. Normal users care even less.
Note, well I lied , I do have one laptop running Vista and it's OK. But I don't see the need to upgrade to W7 when it comes.
It's time to realise that Abble's products are the biggest abomination these days. Just say NO to the dumb iAbble way!!
This is really something new for Microsoft, isn't it? It's not as if there are people still using Windows 2000 anywhere... Oh, wait.
Everytime there is a new version of any operating system this same thing happens. People say that there is no compelling reason to upgrade. A bunch of people draw the line and never upgrade. Doom and gloom is predicted for the future.
This is why there are still people using OS/2, AmigaOS, Windows 9x and even Windows 3.1.
But life goes on, and eventually the most of the general population does upgrade. New computers are purchased, business cases are made to upgrade entire organisations and software is purchased that requires a newer OS. The upgrade cycle doesn't happened in a huge wave. It is more of a constant flow.
The reason for this is the generally accepted one: that there are never compelling reasons to do so. However, once you do get used to a new OS, you tend find it hard to go back again. Yes, we have all heard the stories of people immediately downgrading new computers when buying Vista, but so many of those stories fail to take into account the crapware installed by the PC maker that also gets wiped when reinstalling the OS.
With regards to vista compatibility issues.
The biggest issue with vista compatibility is that with User Account Control, you can't write into the "Program Files" directory, even as administrator.
Microsoft now requires that all data written by a software be stored in the "AppData" directory.
So how do developers react?
The good developers split their program files between the static files (which go into the "Program Files" directory) and dynamic files (files that need to be written to which go in the "AppData" directory).
What do the lazy programmers do? Put their entire program into the "AppData" directory and avoid any hassle altogether.
So now, the "AppData" directory essentially becomes the new "Program Files" directory, but... The users are 99% unaware of this and the "AppData" directory (which there are several of) gets contaminated with more junk which is harder to find.
Zoom Player Lead Dev.
Microsoft's problem isn't really Vista, the bit of software.
Their major problem is their lack of understanding that good operating systems can't be created overnight and chucked on the shelves like white goods items under pressure of Sales and Marketing ... not even in a 3-year "overnight". Operating systems evolve into being good, and once they're getting close to being usable then you don't chuck them out just because you want new product in the catalog. Not if you're half sane.
And MS also seems to misunderstand the longevity of operating systems, the attachment that users form with them, people's reluctance to change, and the simple fact that something that works doesn't need to be replaced ... software doesn't wear out, nor obsoleted given incremental upgrades. The "all change" paradigm that seems to hold in MS is in total disregard of commonsense.
And lastly, MS has a real problem in understanding that people buy operating systems to serve their own needs, not to serve the needs of 3rd party content providers --- that's a severe requirements mismatch.
Vista also has technical issues of course, but MS has plenty of manpower to fix those. What I'm not sure it does have the ability to fix is its totally backwards perception of what they should be doing in this area.
"The question of whether machines can think is no more interesting than [] whether submarines can swim" - Dijkstra
The expression "NO, I WILL NOT UPGRADE" is showing a disconnection from Redmond. "This hardware is fine, I will not switch to Vista, thank you".And from there, from that point of rebelion, other alternatives sounds plausible.
If you are feeling that Vista is a scam, and that someone is trying to push you to buy new hardware, when you are told that there is a FREE version of an OS that lets you stay with your hardware and is community based you hear bells from heaven.
Donde Ser Geek No Duele
Making a logical comment - HERE, on Slashdot?!
Don't you know by now that when someone mentions Windows or Microsoft you should put on your best "hate-face" and go "GRRRRR"!?
Likewise, as soon as someone mentions Linux you should put on your best "smart-face" and go "A-Ha"!?
And should someone mention anything about Apple you should just smile like hell cause you just had a multiple orgasm.
Don't you know that Windows are made from stolen fetuses of prospective Linux programmers?
When the mother is asleep during her last trimester, Bill Gates swoops in through the window (hence the name of the OS) on his leathery wings, holding a coathanger and snatches that fetus right out of her womb.
Fetuses are then thrown into a giant blender, and later boiled below a huge board covered with cat excrement.
The power of Linux is so strong in those unborn programmers that their life juices condense and wash out the excrement off the board in the form of code, which Bill then steals for the next version of his unholy OS.
Something is lost in transcription, naturally, plus while all geniuses those babies do lack the experience, ergo - Windows sucks.
Didn't they teach you anything in school?
Mit der Dummheit kämpfen Götter selbst vergebens
At a hospital I consult, we use the E-Film PACS viewer to allow doctors to look at patient's XRays, MRIs, CT Scans etc. The problem with Vista is that even at this date, E-Film does not still work.
https://www.merge.com/EMEA/estore/content.aspx?pname=eFilm%20Workstation%E2%84%A2&returnUrl=&productID=185&contentTypeID=4
I think it could be because of DRM and video stuff, but that is the job of Microsoft to worry.
And if as per recent reports, Windows 7 is just Windows Vista with rebranding, then XP will be the last version of Windows for a very long time indeed.
If you keep throwing chairs, one day you'll break windows....
Can't agree with that.
If you're talking about the home user, then they will change as soon as they buy new hardware. They will take what they are given and they will like it. Just go into any computer shop and open your ears: Dad is in there, he's heard bad things about Vista and he's fairly sure he doesn't want it - but he still leaves the shop with it under his arm. When he gets home, he finds he's not happy, but there is nothing he can do - and unless he can get someone to downgrade it (which he's not comfortable about either) he's stuck with it. Whether that means that he will switch really depends on what Mac/Linux can offer to that market segment.
Small businesses will operate in a similar fashion, but because they have better budgets for hardware upgrades and the availability of technically capable individuals for advice and support, they won't take the crap and will be a lot less resistant to change (except for the accounts "department" - because they use balance sheets to determine software quality).
As for the medium to large business user - they cannot use unsupported software, so if XP ever ends up in that state they will have to change.
The problem they have right now is that Vista represents too much of a cost overhead to support internally, for at best no advantage, or more typically severe costs in terms of reduced productivity or hardware upgrades.
They currently live in an overlap which XP represents, but as that overlap shrinks they will start seriously looking at alternatives.
On top of this, those involved in making the decisions may be going one step further and projecting a future where every 12-24 months a new version of Windows appears and with it a repeat of the current uncertainty. If they are, then good business sense says that, unless Microsoft put guarantees in place (which must be based on what they have, not what the intend to have), then it is time to start planning for change.
Genesis 1:32 And God typed
I don't know what features pugdk is missing, but I did have an experience with an Excel file from a client where a macro I needed to run wouldn't work when I opened it in the OpenOffice spreadsheet app. Since running that macro was the whole point of him giving me the spreadsheet, that pretty much forced me to use Excel for that particular task. Other than that, though, I prefer OpenOffice, and only have that installed on my personal computer.
This is a great point. If any other company treated you like Microsoft does, you wouldn't take it, you would change. If you couldn't change at the moment, you would position yourself so that you could change sooner rather than later.
Check out my sysadmin blog!
The law of diminishing returns is in effect in OSes as well. It is just not possible to see in the future the massive changes in infrastructure and operating systems we have seen in the past. 8 years ago, going from Windows ME to Windows 2K or from Office 6 to Office 2000 meant a massive increase of stability and features. Today, going from Windows XP to Windows Vista or from Office 2000 to Office 2007 does not offer anything substantially important to the average user.
It is absurd to think that people will keep changing their tools every so often. Once tools are satisfactory enough, they stay. It has happened in programming languages (C, for example, despite all the progress in programming language theory and technology, remains the basis that everything is based on). It is now happening in operating systems. Windows XP will be with us for a long time.
The only time that we are going to see massive changes is when operating systems will become much easier to use, for example like we see in science fiction or something.
Luddite. For £140 you could get a stapler like this. Then you need the maintenance contract, secure storage, batteries and so on but you will be the man for stapling.
TFA says that people are sticking with XP because of compatibility problems. Now, if businesses are to move away from Windows, you will have to prove to them that their old software is more likely to run on Linux/Wine, than on Windows Vista.
The question is, how does wine compare to Vista in terms of compatibility with older versions of Windows?
What is killing Vista in business is 2 words: mission critical. There is always at least 1 app, usually 2-5 that are mission critical and they simply can't function without. Vista has shitty compatibility with older apps compared to XP and therefor is getting ignored.
And if you Linux guys want a shot at the business sector, I have 2 words for you: VB6 support. VB6 is still the number 3 business language for a reason. It is because VB6 powers the engine the drives the SMB. I have yet to walk into a SMB and not have one or more mission critical apps running VB6. If someone was to put out a "SMB Edition" with built in VB6 support, so one could simply click on the app and it would run, it would go a long way to getting Linux into business. But without solid, easy to implement VB6 support, preferably out of the box, there is no way I can even attempt to convert my SMB clients to Linux. There is simply too many mission critical VB6 apps in that environment.
ACs don't waste your time replying, your posts are never seen by me.
Previous new versions of Windows offered increased usability or stability (NT -> 2k -> XP, 95 -> 98), while seeing system requirements rise by an average of 177%/122%/282% for processor/memory/hard drive space on NT based operating systems. XP's annoying product activation at least came with instant user switching and the "run as" contextual menu, which made it much less of a pain in the ass to have your user account not be an administrator.
However, Vista's requirements are a 343%/800%/1000% increase over XP's. And for what? The only interesting feature of Vista that wasn't stripped out was ReadyBoost, which is overcome by the bloat and DRM. Visa is a big sinking pile of shit, just like ME.
But ME was a stop gap release, it wasn't supposed to be the future of the company. And now, as Apple lampoons, Microsoft's solution to the problem is to spend a bunch of money to fix consumer's impression of Vista, rather than fixing Vista.
I have yet to walk into a SMB and not have one or more mission critical apps running VB6.
I've walked into a SMB, and all the applications were written in 6502 assembly language.
As for small or medium businesses, the first thing I did at my current job was rewrite some of their Excel+VBA apps in Python for a major boost in speed and maintainability.