Jobs Not Giving This Year's Macworld Keynote

Many readers including thermopile wrote in about Apple withdrawing from Macworld Expo after this year. The other bad news for Apple fans is that Steve Jobs won't be delivering the keynote in 3 weeks — we may have seen his last "one more thing." Apple VP Phil Schiller will be doing the honors. He's "an Apple executive notably lacking in Jobs's showmanship and star power," according to the Fortune blogger. Apple's press release states that "trade shows have become a very minor part of how Apple reaches its customers." While this may be true, the keynote addresses have been a critical venue for major new product announcements. Apple's stock is taking a 6% hit in after-hours trading, possibly on concerns about Jobs's health. Reader Harry has gathered together YouTube clips from most of the Macworld keynotes Jobs given since 1997.

Comments

iPod, iPhone, then what?

[alain94040]

I have been following Apple for more than 20 years, including stints at MacWorld and today's headline is a repeat of the mini-drama that Apple has been having with the Expo for decades. But today is different.

Ignore the dispute about who controls MacWorld Expo's agenda. Apple feels like on top of the world (always has) and they want absolute control. But they also had found a great recipe for success. Two years ago, on the cab from the caltrain station to Moscone, the taxi driver asked us if we were there for this new "iPhone thing". The hype was just so big, the distortion field so powerful, the force was with Apple.

Somehow, no cab driver ever asked me about Android.

Think of the history: the iPod, the MacBook Air, the iPhone... By having someone else present the keynote this year, our collective expectations just sunk by an order of magnitude. I, for one, don't expect anything amazing this year. But on the other hand, it's only fair: even Apple can't pull off revolution after revolution, year after year. Give them a break, they are doing so much already by showing everyone how boring other products are.

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Re:iPod, iPhone, then what?

[johnsonav]

the ipod, macbook and iphone do nothing other gadgets haven't before. indeed on many technical levels they are inferior, especially the ipod.

One thing Apple has done well, since its beginning, is to make technology exciting for the masses. Most of that is marketing, to be sure. But it always takes marketing to push technology into general use.

True, Apple entered the portable mp3 player market late, and with an, arguably, inferior product. But, through marketing and tight integration with the computer, managed to get 90% of people to trade in their Discmans for iPods. They were able to dominate a market which didn't even exist a few years before (and probably would not be nearly as large without Apple).

From the Apple II, to the iMac, to the iPod, and to the iPhone, Apple has managed to create mass markets where none existed before. I don't think that fact can be overlooked. Whenever Apple comes out with a product, they are trying to open up larger markets for technology, even when they fail (Newton).

The other thing Apple does well is make money. Lots and lots of money. Metric buttloads of money.

Re:iPod, iPhone, then what?

[dgatwood]

And there are no words for how much the MWSF schedule sucks. When I realize how many employees at Apple, Adobe, Canon, and hundreds of other vendors are forced to skip Christmas vacation every year to get products and show displays ready for that horribly timed conference, it makes me want to shove my foot up IDG CEO Bob Carrigan's you-know-what. If the conference were in February, those employees would almost certainly be happier, plus it would likely cost those vendors a lot less in extra compensation to make up for keeping those folks through the holidays. If the show were in February, they might not be watching their vendor list drop like flies....

Scheduling a trade show for the first full week in January is just plain abusive. Maybe this will get IDG to extricate their crania from their posteriors long enough to figure that out.... I won't hold my breath, though. I'd imagine they're getting a hefty discount from the Moscone Center for booking during a week that nobody in their right minds would touch with a ten meter pole.

Re:iPod, iPhone, then what?

[Nyeerrmm]

I don't know if it was luck or a really good understanding of where the industry was going, but the iPod popularity is significantly different than the MacBook or iPhone.

The MacBook took the existing Mac product line, improved it, and grew more popular for a number of reasons... the Intel switch, the improvements in OSX and the recent developments that have made the OS less and less critical are the first things that occur to me. While popular, it doesn't absolutely dominate the market. Its simply a healthy growth of one of Apple's oldest product lines.

The iPhone was a new move into an already well-established market. It has generated new interest in smartphones and helped to push other vendors to improve their products; however, it hasn't ridden the boom of a new market to complete dominance in the same way that the iPod has. iPhone is not (yet?) synonymous with smartphones, and despite strong sales doesn't have the absurdly high installed base.

However, the iPod came out when MP3 players were a niche product for techno-geeks, and rode the growth of the market to have a 70%(?) market share. I can't say whether it led to the growth of the market or simply rode a trend that would have occurred anyway, but needless to say, the iPod's place in the market is stronger than either the MacBook or the iPhone. They are synonymous with the market as a whole, have dozens of companies making accessories... iPod compatibility is even listed as a selling feature on cars.

The supposition of Apple getting lucky makes sense to me. If they're product hadn't been so well developed (at 3rd gen) by the time of the boom, or if some other companies had had better developed products at the time, with well-developed music stores, I can see the iPod being a 20%-30% market share product, that while still successful wouldn't be the cultural phenomenon it is now. And note that I type this on a Macbook Air with my iPhone beside me and my iPod in the car, so believe me when I say I have nothing against the company.