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Hints of a Link Between Autism and Vinyl Flooring
SpuriousLogic sends in a link from Scientific American to a study by Swedish and US researchers that reaches the surprising conclusion that there may be a link between autism and vinyl floors. "Children who live in homes with vinyl floors, which can emit chemicals called phthalates, are more likely to have autism, according to research by Swedish and US scientists published Monday. ... The scientists were surprised by their finding, calling it 'far from conclusive.' ... The researchers found four environmental factors associated with autism: vinyl flooring, the mother's smoking, family economic problems, and condensation on windows, which indicates poor ventilation. Infants or toddlers who lived in bedrooms with vinyl, or PVC, floors were twice as likely to have autism five years later... than those with wood or linoleum flooring. ... Several scientists who did not participate in the study cautioned that it has too many limitations to draw conclusions, but they suggested that new studies be designed to look for a connection between autism and indoor air pollutants."
... someone says correlation is not causation?
'If Christ had tweeted the sermon on the mount, it might have lasted until nightfall.' - John Perry Barlow
April Fools! ... ...
... a recent study found that all autistic children breath air.
http://xkcd.com/552/
So how do you study carcinogenicity: Simple. You feed a couple of rodents that you don't particularly like 5% of their bodyweight of a certain stuff each day, and see how many of them develop cancer within their short lifespans. Now comes the fun part: You extrapolate the 5% bodyweight daily ratio to 1 ppm bodyweight daily ratio, and similary divide the rate of mammal acquiring cancer. Voila, a new PhD promotion based on the completely meritless assumption that there is any kind of linearity involved in these rates.
I know a lot of current research is not so stupid, but most of the 1970's cancer scares were based pretty much on the scenario I just described.
Determining whether or not a compound is carcinogenic in humans is extremely hard, except for the really bad ones.
"correlation is not causation" ... and i'm not joking, we really need to get everyone in the world finally past this stumbling block.
... because they will find (if they bother to study it) that most Autistic people will (on average) enjoy spending longer looking at the sea waves with their every changing details and changing specular highlights as they break and merge combined with the complex yet rhythmic sounds of the waves breaking on the beach etc..
Its very unfortunate that everyone in the world doesn't know the difference. It would solve so many problems in the world, if everyone was forced to learn the difference throughout school and in everyday adult life. Everyone would find life so much better as so many arguments would be avoided and things would get fixed quicker. The people behind funding education in science need to focus a vast amount of time, money and effort into promoting understanding in this simple yet vital bit of education. (I would go as far as to say we need a day per year to remind everyone, like a "world correlation is not causation day!"
"autism AND vinyl flooring."
It could also simply be for example, (on average) more autistic people prefer and enjoy the look, patterning, practical ease of use, feel and/or smell of vinyl flooring. Its like saying, which comes first, Autism or Vinyl flooring.
They could just as easily say looking at the sea causes Autism
There are 10 kinds of people in the world... those who understand binary and those who don't.
But there are some things you just shouldn't do on April Fool's Day, and one of them is encouraging parents of autistic children desperate to blame something for their children's condition. I mean, come on; this is a group that thinks vaccines can cause autism; they'll swallow this one hook, line, and sinker.
How does it increase autism though, if not through environmental factors brought on by poverty?
This is not an april fools:
- It was posted on SCiAM on 31 march
- This isn't remotely a subject that SCiAM would make fun of (a more likely example would be an article claiming irrefutable evidence for intelligent design)
- Falling for this, if it were a joke, wouldn't result in a minor embarrassment to be laughed at
- Someone already posted links to the scientific articles:
http://science.slashdot.org/comments.pl?sid=1182839&cid=27413449
Slashdot would, but Scientific American wouldnt
The article seems serious. Weird, but serious. All the citations and names check out.
Best Slashdot Co
Note that just because correlation is not causation, doesn't mean that correlation is not important...
Low income. Increases the likelihood of smoking, vinyl flooring, poorly ventilated housing and... oh look, it's right there in the list: "family economic problems".
New tag: "Unsupportedwildspeculationisnotcausation".
We know where leadership by an anti-intellectual "strongman" who scapegoats minorities and likes boisterous rallies goes
(1) Does the article or summary assert causation at any point? No, they don't. Therefore, "correlationisnotcausation" is an entirely irrelevant response here.
(2) Is correlation the strongest possible result from research like this? Yes, it is. To demonstrate causation you'd need a designed experiement, with babies raised for years in a controlled environment with vinyl to see how many became autistic; experiments like that are not possible.
(3) As another poster said, "correlationisnotcausation" has become Slashdot shorthand for "I choose to ignore all of your scientific evidence". Compare to: "Evolution has not been proved, it's only a theory."
We know where leadership by an anti-intellectual "strongman" who scapegoats minorities and likes boisterous rallies goes